7:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Dolphins -2.5, Total: 44.5
As Week 4 reaches its conclusion, somebody will get off the schneid, as the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins cross paths on Monday Night Football in this battle between bitter, yet winless, rivals. It’s time for another new era in the Meadowlands, as the Jets (0-3, T-Last in AFC East) have once again hit the reset button in their ongoing attempt to put an end to the longest active playoff drought in the NFL. It’s been 14 seasons and counting for Gang Green, who haven’t advanced to the postseason since 2010, with only a single winning season during that span (2015). Since reaching the 2010 AFC Title Game, this is a franchise that is on their sixth different Head Coach, with Aaron Glenn being the latest to try his hand at turning things around in New York. Of course, Glenn is no stranger to this organization, having played the first 8 years of his career with the Jets where he earned a pair of Pro-Bowl nods (1997 & 1998). As a coach, the 53-year-old rose to prominence alongside the ascendance of the Lions, whom he served as Defensive Coordinator over the previous 3 seasons. Make no mistake, this somehow continues to be a sizable rebuild, folks, with Glenn and (General Manager) Darren Mougey giving the offense in particular a makeover, bidding farewell to the Aaron Rodgers experience. In many ways, you could say that the Jets are detoxing at Quarterback, where Justin Fields looks to get his sputtering career back on track. Now with his third franchise since being drafted eleventh overall back in 2021, Fields (pictured below alongside Glenn) brings a completely different skillset in comparison to that of his predecessor; the 26-year-old is one of the more gifted dual-threat QBs in the league, rushing for 2,606 yards and 21 touchdowns in 52 career appearances (46 starts). As Glenn and (Offensive Coordinator) Tanner Engstrand, who also came from Detroit, look to instill a physical ground game, there is a sense that Fields could very well see a revival in the Meadowlands. With that being said, the question is if he will finally make a leap as a passer, where he has shown flashes. Fields looked like he was on his way towards posting career numbers last season in Pittsburgh, with career-bests in completion percentage (65.8%), net yards per attempt (5.55), interception percentage (0.6), sack percentage (9.04), and passer rating (93.3), though that wasn’t enough for the Steelers, who benched him in favor of Russell Wilson after just 5 starts (4-2). It was clear that he took that personally by the way he performed against Pittsburgh in the season opener, racking up 266 total yards and 3 touchdowns in the narrow 34-32 defeat. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t last longer than a half of action in a 30-10 drubbing at the Bills due to a concussion suffered early on. Though they ultimately crumbled without him, the Jets very nearly rallied back to win their first game in a wild 29-27 loss in Tampa Bay, with Glenn’s troops pressing back after falling into a 23-6 hole late in the third quarter. (Backup QB) Tyrod Taylor spurred the comeback with a pair of touchdowns, before the visitors briefly took the lead on a blocked field goal return 50 yards to the house. New York had amassed just 267 total yards, committed a pair of turnovers and were just 3-of-11 on third down and 1-of-3 on fourth, yet still found a way to keep it close. Will Fields’ return ignite a more dynamic attack in tonight’s trip to Miami? We’ll have to wait and see, folks…
From a betting perspective, the Jets may be winless thus far, but they have been reasonably competitive despite their many issues, owning a 2-1 ledger against the spread, including last weekend’s late push at the Bucs (+6.5). In his return to the franchise that drafted him back in 1994, Glenn is 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS overall, including 0-1 ATS away from MetLife Stadium, 2-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-0 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 1-1 ATS coming off a loss, 0-1 ATS against their neighbors within the AFC East. Furthermore, New York is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 outings immediately following a spread victory. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 26-23 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football, including 12-6 ATS as an underdog away from the Meadowlands, which is the role that they find themselves in tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Gang Green trails the all-time series with the Dolphins 57-61-1 SU, though it has been particularly bleak over the past 7 years, in which they have managed just 3 victories in 15 encounters. The breakdown has been a bit more level ATS, as the Jets have covered 5 of their past 6 meetings, including each of last season’s contests. When they crossed paths back at Hard Rock in early December, the visitors came up short in a 32-26 overtime affair, narrowly beating the spread as 6.5-point dogs. Roughly a month later, the Jets would have their revenge on both fronts, earning a 32-20 victory in the season finale, where (veteran Tailback) Breece Hall racked up 72 yards from scrimmage and a receiving score on 17 touches. Over the course of his career, the Iowa State product has averaged 84.1 yards from scrimmage with a pair of touchdowns in 4 meetings with the Fins. As for Fields, he’s faced Miami just once back when he was starting for the Bears, though it was certainly a productive performance, folks, as he rushed for a whopping 178 yards and scored 4 total touchdowns in a 35-32 defeat 3 years ago. He is also 2-2 as a starter on MNF, completing 65.8% of his throws for an average of 243.0 yards on 6.97 net yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns opposed to 2 interceptions, while rushing for another 55.3 yards and 1 more score. Over his time in the NFL, Fields is now 19-25 ATS overall, including 10-14 ATS on the road, 13-21 ATS as an underdog, 4-12 ATS versus revenge, 10-15 ATS coming off a loss, 5-10 ATS off back-to-back defeats, 7-9 ATS against an opponent that just suffered a loss, and 5-11 ATS opposite of a division rival. On the injury front, (Guard) Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) and Quincy Williams (shoulder) have landed on Injured Reserve with various ailments, while former first-round Edge, Jermaine Johnson, who was responsible for that blocked return score, is out with a sprained ankle. However, Fields, who missed last weekend’s trip to Tampa Bay with a concussion, has been cleared to return to duty. Looking ahead, New York will return to MetLife for a 3-game homestand, beginning with a visit from the struggling Cowboys, followed by the Broncos and Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins (0-3, T-Last in AFC East) find themselves at a crossroads with each passing defeat as the heat continues to increase for everyone within the organization. After a very promising start to the Mike McDaniel era, the results on the gridiron have become gradually disappointing; after advancing to the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 2001, they have gone just 8-12 over the last 20 games, due in large part to injuries to key personnel, upheaval of the roster, and questionable decisions by the coaching staff. Indeed, it has been a very rough start this season for Fins, whose once prolific attack has become a shadow of itself, averaging just 18.7 points (25th Overall) on 281.7 total yards (23rd Overall) with a turnover differential of -5 (31st Overall). Once heralded as the NFL’s latest offensive genius, McDaniel may now be sitting on the hottest seat in the league, though he’s hardly the lone figure at fault, with (General Manager) Chris Grier particularly culpable; the franchise backed themselves into a corner when they handed (veteran Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa a lucrative $212.4 million deal worth north of $50 million annually, despite serious concerns over his durability. 2 years ago, this guy led the NFL in passing yards (272.0), but since then has seen that figure decrease to 260.6 last season to just 191.7 this Fall. After missing 6 games a year ago due to a nasty concussion, McDaniel has adjusted his approach to the passing game, transitioning to much more of a short, quick-strike attack in an attempt to get the ball out of Tua’s (pictured below alongside McDaniel) hands and in turn limiting the potential for injury. How else could you explain his net yards per attempt decreasing from 7.56 in 2023 to 6.46 and 5.61 over the following 2 campaigns? At this point he is operating far more like a point guard in basketball rather than a QB. This approach also runs counter to the weapons at their disposal, particularly (veteran Wideout) Tyreek Hill, who has NOT been a happy camper in Miami of late. Once the premier vertical threat in the NFL, the 8-time Pro-Bowler saw his yards per game cut in half last season (from 112.4 to 56.4), which is a direct reflection of the ongoing situation with his QB. In fact, Hill has gone over a calendar year without reeling in a 30-yard catch, which was standard fare for him once upon a time. With that in mind, is it any wonder that his name has consistently been linked to trade chatter over the past few weeks? After authoring a pair of disappointing performances on that side of the football in losses to the Colts (33-8) and Patriots (33-27), the offense showed signs of thawing in last week’s 31-21 loss to bitter rival, Buffalo, though still performed well below their former prolific standards. The visitors amassed just 276 total yards, as McDaniel utilized a more methodical approach, in part to keep the hosts’ explosive attack on the sideline. The Dolphins converted an industrious 10-of-15 third downs and rushed for a season-high 130 yards on 25 carries, with Tua working the short passing game to near perfection. However, with an opportunity to draw level late in the fourth quarter after a brilliant play on fourth down, Tagovailoa was intercepted deep in Bills’ territory, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, Tua was 22-of-34 for 146 yards, a pair of touchdowns and that decisive pick, despite being pressured on nearly half of his drop backs (45.7%). With that being said, he wasn’t sacked once, as McDaniel called about as good a game as you could imagine. AS for Hill, he found the end zone on a 5-yard strike early in the final stanza, though totaled just 49 yards with 5 catches on 10 targets. Will we ever see the high-flying Dolphins of yesteryear again? It is looking more and more unlikely, folks…
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins are also winless straight-up, but they have been worse than their counterpart tonight against the spread (1-2 ATS), though did get their first cover of the campaign in last week’s trip to Buffalo (+11.5). Since arriving on South Beach back in 2002, McDaniel is a middling 28-28 SU and 27-28-1 ATS overall, including 13-12 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium, 18-13 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 13-15 ATS when harboring revenge, 11-12 ATS following a loss, and 14-17 ATS versus their fellow residents within the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered 12 of their last 14 outings against an opponent coming off back-to-back losses, is 15-5 ATS versus a sub-.500 foe coming off a defeat and are 0-3 ATS after performing on a Thursday night. Miami is also 10-1 ATS following consecutive losses before set to face a division adversary, but have failed to cover 6 of their past 7 outings played in the month of September. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for it does begin to rise, then it is worth noting that the Fins have covered 6 straight showdowns as a home favorite of at least 3 points against a division rival with vengeance on their mind. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 29-40 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 13-16 ATS as a home favorite, while going 6-1 ATS at home following back-to-back losses, which is precisely the role that they find themselves in tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Dolphins own the edge in the all-time series (61-57-1 SU), though as we covered earlier, the have really created some separation with a dozen wins in their past 15 meetings. A great deal of that work has come at Hard Rock, where they haven’t lost to Gang Green in 9 encounters. Last year’s battle on South Beach may not have featured the overwhelming heat and humidity of past affairs, but the outcome remained the same; the hosts rallied back form a 23-15 deficit late in the third quarter to force overtime, where Tagovailoa took the opening possession 65 yards to the end zone, hitting (former Tight End) Jonnu Smith for a 10-yard walk-off touchdown. Speaking of Tua, he is unbeaten in 6 career meetings with New York, averaging 212.7 yards on an efficient 73.6% passing, with 8 touchdowns opposed to 5 interceptions. He is also 2-1 all-time on MNF, though has committed twice as many turnovers (4) as touchdowns (2). As for his ledger ATS, the Alabama product is now 35-29 ATS overall, including 21-13 ATS at home, 20-17 ATS as a favorite, 16-14 ATS with revenge, 10-11 ATS following a loss, 4-5 ATS after suffering back-to-back defeats, 17-13 ATS against an opponent coming off a loss, and 14-9 ATS versus the AFC East. On the injury front, McDaniel & Co haven’t had much luck in this department, with 10 players already landing on Injured Reserve, including (Offensive Linemen) Austin Jackson (lower body), Germain Ifedi (undisclosed), Yodny Cajuste (undisclosed), James Daniels (pectoral), and Obinna Eze (undisclosed). However, the bigger concern has been the Secondary, which has been RAVAGED in the early goings of this campaign; Artie Burns (knee), Kader Kohou (leg), and Jason Maitre (undisclosed) are on IR, while Storm Duck (ankle), Ethan Bonner (hamstring), and Jason Marshall (hamstring) are expected to miss tonight’s primetime clash. Looking ahead, the Dolphins will see 3 of their next 4 games on the road, traveling to Charlotte to face the Panthers next weekend.