8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Rams -5.5, Total: 47.0
Old colleagues renew acquaintances in this midweek affair, as the San Francisco 49ers make the short trip south to the City of Angels, where the Los Angeles Rams await in this battle between rivals to see who will sit atop the NFC West. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached that point of the season where injuries are really starting to weigh heavily on teams, a reality that the 49ers (3-1, T-1st in NFC West) are well acquainted with. Of course, this is a team that went from narrowly meeting defeat in Super Bowl XLVIII to plummeting to a 6-11 finish, their worst since 2018, due in large part to a slew of maladies befallen by key personnel. As a result, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch opted to start turning the roster over a bit in an attempt to get younger (and cheaper) in several positions, bidding farewell to several starters on both sides of the football, including Deebo Samuel, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, and Charvarius Ward, leading many to believe that this would be somewhat of a transition year for San Francisco. With that being said, there was optimism that it could serve as something of a return to form as well, what with a healthy Christian McCaffrey ready to go from the outset; the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year missed all but 4 games last Fall due to a lingering calf issue, robbing the Niners of arguably the most decisive weapon in the NFL, leading the league in yards from scrimmage (2,023) and total touchdowns (21) 2 years ago. While McCaffrey has remained largely healthy thus far, with 530 yards from scrimmage in 4 games, the rest of the roster has been hit HARD. (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa (knee) and (6-time Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle (hamstring) have already been sent to Injured Reserve, with the former tearing his ACL in a narrow win over the Cardinals 2 weeks ago, while the Quarterback room has been beset as well. After earning a lucrative 5-year, $265 million contract in the offseason, Brock Purdy has been asked to carry a larger share of the attack than ever before, with the former Mr. Irrelevant dealing with a lingering toe sprain that sidelined for the battle with the Redbirds. Though his backup, Mac Jones, led San Fran to a narrow victory, he tweaked his knee late in the contest, prompting Purdy’s premature return in last weekend’s 26-21 loss at home to the Jaguars. This one was a mess for the hosts, who outgained Jacksonville 389-325 in total yards, but were completely derailed by 4 turnovers, including a pair of interceptions and a lost fumble from Purdy (pictured below), while Special Teams once again drew the ire of Shanahan in relinquishing a an 87-yard punt return late in the third quarter which saw the deficit stretch back to 12 points. There is a growing sense that the young passer could very well be held out of tonight’s trip to SoCal in attempt to get him healthier down the road, particularly given how quick of a turnaround this is from last Sunday. Of course, a lot has been made of Shanahan finally getting ahold of Jones, whom it was highly publicized that he wanted to select in the 2021 NFL Draft; after washing out of New England and spending last Fall as backup for the Jags, Jones has played well in place of Purdy, completing 66.3% of his throws for 563 yards on 6.54 net yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns and an interception. Given that Purdy has struggled in the early goings of the campaign, there has been speculation that he could eventually take over as the starter, though given the investment that the Niners placed in the former, we doubt that that particular future will come to miss, barring a long-term injury of course.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers come into this midweek clash at 3-1 straight-up, but they are level against the spread (2-2 ATS), failing to cover each of their last 2 outings, a narrow win over Cardinals (-1.5) before falling well short of the mark in that loss to the Jags (-3.5). Dating back to last season, this has been one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of covering, beating the spread just 4 times over their past 14 games. Since his arrival back in 2017, Shanahan is now 81-67 SU and a middling 73-73-2 ATS, including 39-32 ATS away from Santa Clara, 28-24 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 38-35 ATS when harboring revenge, 28-29 AST following a loss, and 26-25 ATS versus their fellow residents within the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered just 1 of their last 12 outings against an opponent fresh off a cover, while dropping four consecutive non-covers versus a foe that is above .500, and matching that mark when they are coming off a spread loss themselves. However, they are 8-1 ATS in 9 division tilts when coming off a loss as a favorite, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 9-11 ATS on Thursday nights, including 1-2 ATS as a road underdog and 5-4 ATS on TNF in general under Shanahan. Looking at this particular matchup, San Francisco leads the all-time series between these clubs 78-71-3, but have found themselves mired within a 3-game losing streak after a prosperous stretch in which they had bested Los Angeles 9 times in 10 meetings. That means that the Niners were swept last Fall, though they were both tightly contested affairs. The first, a 27-24 loss at SoFi Stadium, saw the visitors blow a 21-7 lead, conceding 13 unanswered points in the final 7:00 of action. The second, a 12-6 slugfest at Levi’s Stadium, was a veritable field goal fest in which Shanahan’s side could muster just 191 total yards of offense. As for Purdy, he is just 1-2 in 3 career meetings with the Rams, completing 61.6% of his throws for 640 yards on a healthy 7.23 net yards per attempt with 3 touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another score for good measure. He is also 4-1 all-time on TNF, tossing 8 touchdowns opposed to 1 interception. Against the spread, Purdy is 22-23 ATS overall, including 10-10 ATS on the road, 0-3 AST as an underdog, 4-7 ATS with revenge, 6-7 ATS coming off a loss, 9-16 ATS versus an opponent coming off a loss, and 8-7 ATS against division rivals, with his worst role coming as, you guessed it, a road dog (0-2 ATS). On the injury front, it has been eventful in all the wrong ways for the 49ers, who now have 10 different players sitting on IR, including Pro-Bowlers such as Bosa (knee) and Kittle (hamstring), or (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) Brandon Aiyuk (knee), who has yet to even see the field recovering from knee surgery. (Wide Receivers) Jauan Jennings (ribs/ankle) and Ricky Pearsall (knee) have been limited throughout the abbreviated practice week, with the former suffering what appeared to be broken ribs in last weekend’s loss to the Jags. Then there is the situation at QB, where both Purdy and Jones are banged up; Purdy is still dealing with an ailing toe that visibly hampered him last week, while Jones tweaked his knee 2 weeks ago. There is a real chance that Jones gets the nod though on this short week, as he appears to be the healthier of the 2 and clearly has Shanahan’s backing. Looking ahead, the Niners will stay on the road for a LONG venture to Florida’s Gulf Coast, where the Buccaneers await.
Meanwhile, coming into the season the general consensus was that if there is a legitimate contender to unseat the reigning Super Bowl Champion Eagles in the NFC, it would be the Rams (3-1, T-1st in NFC West). After all, Los Angeles was literally the ONLY team that pushed Philadelphia to its limit during their run to a Lombardi Trophy last Winter, as (Head Coach) Sean McVay’s troops came up just short in a snowy 28-22 affair. This is a franchise that had successfully turned over it’s expensive, star-laden roster and gone through the bumps and bruises of transition, surprising many with a 10-7 finish and a division title last Fall. Now with the return of (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, the addition of (former All-Pro Wideout) Davante Adams, and the continued growth of tenacious young defense, this is definitely one of the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLX. After getting off to a 2-0 start, LA once again traveled to Philly for a fated rematch with the birds, giving the defending champs everything they could handle in a riveting 33-26 defeat. The visitors moved the ball with ease early, taking a 19-7 lead into halftime despite stalling repeatedly in the red zone, while their own defense stifled the hosts time and again. However, momentum would shift in the second half as the Eagles began torching the Rams downfield through the air, finally taking a 27-26 advantage 1:48 left in regulation. However, Los Angeles stopped the 2-point conversion that would have made it a 3-point game, and proceeded to drive to their opponent’s 26-yard line, teeing up for the game-winning 44-yarder. Or so they thought, as (young Kicker) Josh Kartey, who drilled 4 field goals earlier in the contest, saw his final kick blocked at the line of scrimmage and returned all the way to the house, igniting the faithful at Lincoln Financial Field and leaving McVay & Co wondering what in the hell just happened. Again, they pushed the birds to the edge, and again they were left wanting. Rather than let that outcome fester, LA returned to SoFi Stadium for a visit from another undefeated adversary, this time in the form of the upstart Colts, who would give the home side everything they could handle. By and large, the Rams should have lost this game, if not for a boneheaded touchback on a would-be touchdown that was fumbled into the end zone by Indianapolis midway through the third quarter. From that point, Stafford (pictured below) hit (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Puka Nacua for a short score to draw level at 20-20 with just over 3 minutes left to play in regulation. After forcing a punt, Los Angeles set up shop deep in their own territory at their own 12-yard line, where Stafford came to the rescue with the play of the day, an 88-yard bomb to (young Wideout) Tutu Atwell for the go-ahead touchdown. Indianapolis would get a final shot to strike back, but (veteran Safety) Kamren Curl intercepted Daniel Jones at midfield, ending the affair. When it was all said and done, LA racked up 462 total yards with 375 yards on the right arm of Stafford, who completed 29-of-41 throws with 3 touchdowns, while Nacua hauled in 13 of 15 targets for 170 yards and a score. Curl had a pair of picks, while (reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year) Jared Verse had 6 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Rams thus far, who have covered each of their 3 victories, while failing to do so in their miraculous loss to the Eagles (+3.5) 2 weeks ago. Dating back to last Fall, this has been 1 of the most successful teams in the NFL in terms of covering the spread with 10 covers in their last 12 outings. Since arriving in SoCal back in 2017, McVay is a stellar 91-58 SU and 79-65-5 ATS, including 36-36 ATS at SoFi Stadium, 52-43 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 45-31 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 42-44 ATS following a win, and 32-19 ATS against their fellow residents within the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered each of their last 4 home games, along with 4 in a row at SoFi against adversaries owning a winning road record. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a middling 9-9 ATS on Thursday nights, including 3-2 ATS as a home favorite, though they have been a STRONG play over the past 6 years in which they are 7-1 ATS the spread on TNF. In fact, their most recent midweek outing came against none other than the Niners, whom they bested in that aforementioned 12-6 victory in Santa Clara last November. There were no touchdowns to be found in this one, folks, as LA’s young Kicker, Josh Kartey was the difference maker with a quartet of field goals, 3 of which coming in the fourth quarter where the visitors simply couldn’t punch it into the end zone. With that being said, the Rams certainly controlled the game, outgaining San Francisco 302-191 in total yards, including 142-63 on the ground, possessing the football for a commanding 35:04 of game time. (Former Pro-Bowl Tailback) Kyren Williams rushed for 108 yards on an industrious 29 carries, while Nacua led the way in the passing game with 97 yards on 7 receptions. (Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula’s unit got after Purdy, sacking him on 3 occasions and picking him off once, courtesy of (veteran Cornerback) Darious Williams. As for Stafford, he totaled just 160 yards on 16-of-27 passing, but was kept clean in this defensive struggle. Over the course of his career, the veteran gunslinger is just 4-8 against the Niners, completing 64.4% of his throws for an average of 259.8 yards on 5.95 net yards per attempt, with 17 touchdowns in comparison to 9 interceptions. Furthermore, he is 8-8 all-time on Thursday nights with 28 touchdowns opposed to 18 interceptions. Against the spread, Stafford is now 107-120 ATS overall, including 52-63 ATS at home, 54-60 ATS as a favorite, 57-52 ATS versus revenge, 50-58 ATS coming off a win, 46-47 ATS against a foe fresh off a loss, and 37-43 ATS against his division, be it the NFC North or West. On the injury front, Los Angeles has been largely healthy with just 2 players on Injured Reserve, with (veteran Offensive Tackle) Rob Havenstein (ankle), (Tight End) Tyler Higbee (hip), and (emerging Safety) Kamren Kinchens (shoulder) all limited throughout the abbreviated practice week with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Rams will hit the road for a pair of eastern ventures, traveling to Baltimore to battle decimated Ravens before heading south for a showdown with the Jaguars.