10:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: BYU -18.5, Total: 48.5
The BIG XII takes center stage tonight in Provo, as the undefeated (No. 23) BYU Cougars look to remain that way as they welcome the struggling West Virginia Mountaineers, who are rebuilding behind the return of a familiar face. After stumbling to their third losing campaign in 4 seasons, West Virginia (2-3, 0-2 in BIG XII) opted to pull the plug on the Neal Brown experience, in turn welcoming back one of the most successful figures in program history, (Head Coach) Rich Rodriguez. Indeed, Rich Rod’s coaching career has traveled more country roads than the John Denver classic; Rodriguez (pictured below) rose to prominence in leading his alma mater to a 60-26 record between 2001 to 2007, capturing 4 Big East championships during that span (2003-2005, 2007), earning the league’s Coach of the Year honors twice along the way (2003 and 2005). After a messy exit, he took his talents to Ann Arbor where he was nothing short of a disaster at Michigan, going 15-22 in 3 seasons, eventually leading to his dismissal amidst NCAA sanctions. Then came a 6-year stay in Tucson, where he led Arizona to 10 wins and a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2014, before being fired 3 years later over a sexual harassment scandal. Rodriguez would then spend 3 years rehabbing his image while transitioning Jacksonville State from the FCS to FBS, stringing together 3 consecutive 9-win campaigns. Now, he returns to a very different West Virginia than the one he departed nearly 20 years ago, with the Moutaineers struggling in the BIG XII where they are just 77-74 since moving to the conference in 2012, mustering a winning record in league play on just 6 occasions. They have already taken 2 in the loss column since engineering an emotional 31-24 upset against bitter rival, Pittsburgh, getting absolutely THUMPED in successive weeks at Kansas (41-10) and most recently against Utah (48-14) last weekend. This one was all Utes, folks, as the visitors came stormed into Morgantown with 35 unanswered points by midway through the third quarter before the hosts finally got on the board. WVU was outgained 532-346 in total yards despite rushing for a stellar 261 yards on an industrious 48 carries and winning the turnovers battle (+1). Unfortunately, the passing game was virtually nonexistent, as (Junior Quarterback) Nicco Marchiol missed the affair with a foot injury suffered in the trip to Lawrence. As such, the tandem of Jaylen Henderson and Khalil Wilkins combined for just 85 yards on 6-of-13 attempts, with the latter hitting (Jacksonville State transfer) Cam Vaughn for a 39-yard touchdown to put the home side on the board. It remains to be seen who the starter in tonight’s trip to BYU will be as neither Henderson nor Wilkins were particularly convincing last weekend, while Marchiol’s status is up in the air.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with West Virginia thus far, folks, with both of their covers coming in their 2 victories, while failing to do so in their 3 defeats. Conference play hasn’t been good to the Mountaineers with 2 games in the books, as they received points against Kansas (+12.5) and Utah (+13.5) and were consequently blown out by a combined 65 points. Going back to his first stint with the program, Rodriguez is now 62-29 SU and 39-35-1 ATS overall, including 24-12 ATS away from Morgantown, 16-15 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 23-20 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 13-10 ATS coming off a loss, and 27-18 ATS versus division opposition, whether it is the Big East or BIG XII. Furthermore, WVU has covered 5 of their last 6 games played on a weekday, but are just 1-5 ATS over their past 6 outings versus an adversary with a winning record. It should also be noted that this is a school that just 2-12 ATS against a foe with vengeance on their mind since 2021, which is the case with tonight’s trip to Provo. Looking at this particular matchup, these programs have crossed paths on the gridiron just twice in their respective histories, with West Virginia taking both encounters; the first, a spirited 35-32 affair at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, while the second was a one-sided 37-3 blowout from 2 years ago in Morgantown. The hosts outgained the Cougars 567-277 in total yards, including 336- 67 on the ground, with (Junior Tailback) Jaheim White led the team with 146 rushing yards on just 16 carries, while Marchiol got an opportunity late to get some reps, completing all 4 of his passes for 26 yards. On the injury front, we touched upon the situation at QB, where Marchiol is listed questionable to return from that foot injury suffered against the Jayhawks. In his first season as the starter, he hasn’t been prolific by any means, averaging just 180.0 yards per game on 7.3 yards per attempt and 67.3% passing with as many touchdowns as interceptions (2). Looking ahead, the Mountaineers will enjoy a week off before hitting the road once more, traveling to Orlando for a battle with UCF October 8th, before returning home to host TCU.
Meanwhile, there have been no such issues at BYU (4-0, 1-0 in BIG XII), who have now opened their second consecutive campaign with 4 successive victories, cracking the AP Poll for the first time this Fall in the process. (Head Coach) Kalani Sitake is in his tenth year at his alma mater, posting a solid 76-43 ledger (.639) along the way, which includes a stellar 15 wins in his last 17 contests, while coming agonizingly close to participating in last December’s BIG XII Championship Game due to a 3-way tiebreaker with Arizona State and Iowa State. Even with (Senior Quarterback) Jake Retzlaff transferring to Tulane, the offense really hasn’t missed a beat with (Freshman QB) Bear Bachmeier and (Junior Tailback) L.J. Martin leading the way; the Cougars have averaged 38.5 points (23rd in FBS) on 435.8 total yards, with the bulk of that production coming on the ground where they have churned out 251.3 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Granted, those figures are skewed a bit by a whopping 468 yards in the opener against Portland State, with the overall attack proving to be more balanced the rest of the way. Bachmeier (pictured below) passed for a season-high 246 yards in a 34-13 victory at East Carolina, while the ground game returned to capture a narrow 24-21 victory in Boulder last weekend. Facing adversity for the first time this Fall, Sitake’s troops rallied back from an early 14-0 deficit, going on to outscore the Buffaloes 24-7 over the final 46:00 of action. Bachmeier tossed back-to-back touchdowns on opposite sides of halftime, before (Sophomore Wideout) Cody Hagen turned a sweep play 32 yards to the house for the game-winning score. Sitake’s defense shut down Colorado from that point, relinquishing just 291 total yards on the night, with (Junior Linebacker) Isaiah Glasker coming up with the game’s lone turnover, an interception on the final drive to seal the comeback. Bachmeier completed 19-of-27 throws for 179 yards and those 2 scores, while also leading the Cougs with 98 rushing yards on 15 carries. As for Martin, he amassed 94 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches, while (Senior Wideout) Chase Roberts reeled in both of those touchdowns with 49 yards on 5 catches. The defensive performance shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the program over the last few years, as BYU shipped just 19.6 points per game (18th in FBS) on 308.0 total yards, relegating 4 different foes to season-lows last Fall. This season, they’ve been even better with a scant 9.2 points allowed (4th in FBS) on 226.8 total yards, which equates to a mere 3.9 yards per play. with 10 sacks, 31 tackles for loss, and 7 takeaways through 4 games. Needless to say, this unit will be looking their chops as West Virginia’s sputtering attack comes calling.
From a betting perspective, BYU are perfect straight-up and 3-1 against the spread thus far, though they did fail to cover for the first time this Fall in last weekend’s successful rally at Colorado (-6.5). Since returning to Provo a decade ago, Sitake is now 76-43 SU and 57-52-1 ATS overall, including 24-25 ATS at Lavell Edwards Stadium, 30-36 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-9 ATS when harboring revenge, 34-21 ATS coming off a win, and 10-12 ATS versus their fellow residents within the BIG XII. Furthermore, the Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 outings with an opponent with a losing record, are 9-2 ATS over their past 11 contests in which they rushed for 200+ yards, while matching that mark following their last 11 games holding an adversary to fewer than 170 passing yards, with each trend relevant for tonight’s affair under the Friday night lights. As we covered earlier, Brigham Young has never defeated West Virginia in 2 all-time meetings, with the first being an entertaining 35-32 affair on a neutral field in which (former QB) Taysom Hill very nearly led the comeback, accounting for 346 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, the more recent of the 2 encounters came in 2023, which was a disastrous 37-7 loss in Morgantown where Sitake’s troops were outgained by nearly 300 yards, including 269 on the ground. The aforementioned Roberts is one of the lone remaining offensive players that took part in that ugly showing, logging 4 receptions for 53 yards in the defeat. On the injury front, . Looking ahead, BYU will hit the road for a trip to Tucson to battle Arizona, before returning home for the latest chapter of the Holy War, their bitter rivalry with Utah on October 18th, in a game that will coincidentally serve as homecoming in Provo.