8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Bills -7.5, Total: 49.5
A sleeping division rivalry reignites tonight in Orchard Park, as improved New England Patriots make their final trip to Highmark Stadium to battle the undefeated Buffalo Bills in a clash that will go a long way towards deciding the AFC East despite the calendar just transitioning to October. Ladies and gentlemen, we would encourage you all to welcome the Patriots (2-2, 2nd in AFC East) back to relevance after spending the past few seasons lost in proverbial wilderness. Indeed, it’s been a tough run for New England since (legendary Quarterback) Tom Brady left Foxborough, with the franchise mustering a disappointing 33-51 record (.392) from 2020 to 2024, spiraling out of control into back-to-back 4-13 campaigns. Simply put, for an organization that had spent the previous 2 decades as the most successful in the National Football League, winning 6 Lombardi Trophies along the way, this fall from grace was nothing short of unacceptable. And it’s with that said that (longtime Owner) Robert Kraft went about setting things right, firing (former Head Coach) Jerod Mayo after only a single season on the job and replacing him with another ex-Pat (pun intended), Mike Vrabel. Of course, Vrabel is no stranger to the Patriots, winning 3 Super Bowls during his 8 years with the franchise, though the difference between he and his predecessor is his coaching CV; from 2018 to 2023, the 50-year-old enjoyed a strong run with the Titans (54-45), leading them 3 consecutive postseason appearances, including a trip to the 2019 AFC Championship Game, while earning 2021 Coach of the Year honors to boot. Joining him is another former Patriot, (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels, who is beginning his third tenure in Foxborough. There is a real sense that the team is in better hands than it was a year ago, particularly (Sophomore QB) Drake Maye, whom the organization drafted third overall last season. While he showed flashes of being a playmaker as a rookie, it was far from an ideal situation for the North Carolina product succeed under the previous regime, what with a dearth of weapons and a ravaged Offensive Line surrounding him. That has NOT been the case this time around, folks, as New England has been a top-10 team on both sides of the football thus far; Vrabel’s troops rank tenth in points scored (25.5) and tenth in points allowed (20.3), with the offense sitting at tenth on third down (41.7%) and eighth in the red zone (66.7%). Surprisingly, it has been Maye (pictured below) and the passing game that has led the way, averaging 235.0 yards per game (7th Overall) on 6.9 net yards per attempt (8th Overall), with the young passer leading the league in completion percentage (74.0%) with 7 touchdowns opposed to just 2 interceptions. Furthermore, he is a threat with his legs as well, rushing for 98 yards and 2 more scores. All of this was on display in last weekend’s 42-13 demolition of the Panthers at Gillette Stadium; after conceding a touchdown on the opening possession of the afternoon, the hosts went on to score 42 unanswered points beginning with an 87-yard punt return to the house courtesy of (veteran Cornerback) Marcus Jones. The offense may have racked up just 307 total yards, though that had a lot to do with enjoying excellent field position throughout the tilt thanks to their special teams and their own defense stopping Carolina on fourth down twice. Maye hit on an efficient 14-of-17 throws for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another score to boot, often connecting with (veteran Wideout) Stefon Diggs, who has really made an impact since transitioning to the slot, where he reeled in 6 of 7 targets for 101 yards. Tonight’s return to Buffalo should be an emotional one for Diggs, who enjoyed the prime of his career in Orchard Park, where he was selected to 4 consecutive Pro-Bowls from 2020 to 2023, amassing 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Patriots, who have covered each of the games that they’ve won, while failing to do in those that they have lost. Since returning to Foxborough, Vrabel is 2-2 SU and ATS overall, including 1-0 ATS away from Gillette Stadium, 1-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-0 ATS when harboring revenge, 0-1 ATS following a win, and 1-0 ATS versus their fellow residents within the AFC East. Dating back to his time with the Titans, his troops are 11-2 ATS when coming off a non-division affair and set to face an opponent coming off a double-digit victory, while going 12-2 ATS after securing a win with an adversary fresh off a win of 10+ points on deck. Furthermore, he is 14-4 as an underdog with revenge. New England is has also covered 4 of their last 5 meetings with the rest of their division, but have failed to cover the spread immediately after any of their previous 4 covers, while going 1-6-1 ATS over their past 8 outings in which they conceded fewer than 15 points, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is no stranger to Sunday nights, posting a 26-23 ATS overall, including 10-6 ATS as a road dog. Looking at this particular matchup, the Pats are 79-51-1 in the all-time series with the Bills, which stands as their most victories against any single opponent. However, the proverbial tables have turned since the departure of a certain goat, with the Patriots taking just 3 of the last 11 encounters, including only 1 in Orchard Park (2021). They did manage to split their two meetings from last Fall, narrowly meeting defeat in a 24-21 thriller in Buffalo, before earning a 23-16 victory in the season finale in Foxborough. Maye was up and down in those contests, completing 59.4% of his throws for just 130.5 yards per game on 6.59 net yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another 30 yards on 6 carries, but his lost fumble on an aborted snap in the end in the first of those showdowns was exactly the kind of error that you attribute to being a rookie. Over the course of his young career, Maye is now 8-7 ATS overall, including 4-2 ATS on the road, 7-7 ATS as a dog, 6-3 ATS with revenge, 1-2 ATS coming off a win, 3-3 ATS versus an opponent fresh off a win themselves, and 4-1 ATS against the rest of his division, while his most profitable role has been, you guessed it, a road dog (4-2 ATS). On the injury front, New England has not been immune to the injury bug early this season, with 9 different players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, though they did receive a boost with the healthy returns of (promising Cornerback) Christian Gonzalez, (Linebacker) K’Lavon Chaisson, (Offensive Tackle) Michael Onwenu, and (Defensive Lineman) Christian Barmore last week, with all of them expected to suit him for tonight’s trip to Orchard Park. Gonzalez was the most notable of the returnees, with the 2023 first-rounder enabling Vrabel’s defense to utilize far more man coverage than they had without him through the first 3 games. Looking ahead, tonight’s venture to West New York marks the start of a 3-game road trip for the Patriots, who will be heading to New Orleans and Tennessee in the coming weeks, which could very well place them in the postseason hunt for the first time in 4 years.
Meanwhile, the mission remains the same for the Bills (4-0, 1st in AFC East), who are desperate to win their first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. Despite amassing a stellar 61-22 record and claiming 5 consecutive division crowns since 2020, Buffalo has come agonizingly close to reaching that elusive goal, meeting defeat in the AFC Championship Game 3 times during that span, including each of the last 2 postseasons. (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane have done a tremendous job of gradually turning over the roster in several areas during this extended run of success, though that process is made much smoother with the presence of reigning MVP, Josh Allen. Midway through a sloppy 2023 campaign, something changed for Allen (pictured below) and something was (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady, who took over playcalling duties for the offense. Since then, it has been nothing but magic: Allen (pictured below) has averaged 263.2 yards passing and rushing over the course of those 28 games, with 45 passing touchdowns and 23 rushing scores along the way, leading his team to 23-5 record in the process. This perfect start has been no exception either, as the prolific QB has engineered an attack that has averaged 33.3 points (2nd Overall) on 404.0 total yards (2nd Overall), with Allen completing 70.2% of his throws for 964 yards on 7.27 net yards per attempt, with 7 touchdowns in comparison to a single interception, while rushing for 159 yards and 3 more scores on a healthy 5.1 yards per carry. Balance has been the key for this attack, which ranks sixth in passing (249.0) and first in rushing (163.5), with (2-time Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook picking up where he left off last year; the Georgia product earned a lucrative new contract after leading the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024 and already has 5 through the first 4 games thus far, ripping off 401 yards on an explosive 5.3 yards per carry, which is highest clip since he was a rookie. Both playmakers were on display in last weekend’s 31-19 victory over the winless Saints, though this was an affair that closer than the final score would lead you to believe. After opening their ledger with a 43-yard touchdown from Allen to (underrated Wideout) Khalil Shakir on their first drive of the afternoon, the hosts would build a 21-10 lead by the midway point of the third quarter. However, New Orleans would finally build some momentum with 9 unanswered points to cut the deficit to just 2 points midway through the final stanza. However, the Bills would regain control as Allen found (young Tight End) Dalton Kincaid for a 28-yard strike in the corner of the end zone followed by a field goal to finish the visitors off. When it was all said and done, Buffalo outgained their opponent 356-298 in total yards, but there was certainly room for improvement as the offense relied a little too much on big plays while struggling on third down (3-of-10), with McDermott’s defense getting pushed around in the trenches on 189 rushing yards allowed. Allen completed 16-of-22 passes for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns, rushing for another 45 yards and a score, though was intercepted once and sacked on 3 occasions. As for Cook, he rushed for 117 yards of his own on 22 carries, with a short jaunt into the end zone to retake the lead at the end of the first period.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be perfect straight-up, but that has not been the case against the spread (2-2 ATS), as they have failed to cover the sizeable spreads that they’ve been tasked with against the Dolphins (-11.5) and Saints (-14.5). This is a team that has struggled to cover such large numbers, with only a single cover in their last 13 outings when they have been favored by 10+ points. Since arriving in Orchard Park back in 2017, McDermott is now 97-52 SU and 78-64-7 ATS overall, including 39-33 ATS at Highmark Stadium, 50-41 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 43-40 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 48-42 ATS following a win, and 26-25 ATS against their fellow residents within the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered 5 of their last 6 outings immediately following a non-cover, while going 2-8 ATS when they are .500 or better and set to face off against an opponent who owns a similar win percentage and fresh off a SUATS win, which is the case tonight. Buffalo is also just 1-7 ATS when favored by 3+ points versus an adversary coming off a win of 10+ points, which is also the case in this primetime affair. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 16-13 ATS on Sunday nights, including 6-3 ATS as a home favorite. As we covered earlier, the Bills have clearly owned this rivalry since a certain 7-time Super Bowl champion left Foxborough prior to the 2020 campaign, winning 8 of the past 11 encounters, including 4 in a row at Orchard Park. They split their 2 meetings from last Fall, though only 1 of them is actually relevant as McDermott opted to rest the majority of his starters in that aforementioned season finale. That 24-21 affair from Highmark was a different story altogether, as Buffalo managed to pull away thanks to some timely takeaways on the part of their defense; the hosts forced 3 turnovers on the day, including a pair of fumbles, the latter of which came on a recovery in the end zone courtesy of (Linebacker) Taron Johnson, which put some distance between the 2 sides. When it was all said and done, the Bills controlled the game on the ground with 172 rushing yards on 28 carries, as Cook went OFF with 126 yards from scrimmage and a pair of scores on just 14 touches, while Allen overcame a rather pedestrian performance, certainly by his lofty standards, with just 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing, a touchdown and an interception. Speaking of the reigning MVP, he is 8-6 all-time against the Pats, completing 60.0% of his throws for an average of 206.0 yards on 6.65 net yards per attempt, with 21 touchdowns opposed to 10 interceptions, while rushing for another 32.3 yards and 5 more scores. Over the course of his career, Allen is now 65-53 ATS overall, including 34-30 ATS at home, 47-39 ATS as a favorite, 39-35 ATS versus revenge, 44-38 ATS when coming off a win, 28-27 ATS following back-to-back victories, 29-26 ATS against a foe fresh off a win themselves, 22-20 ATS and versus his division. On the injury front, McDermott has had one of the healthier teams in the NFL thus far, with just 5 players on Injured Reserve, including (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass (hip) and (Rookie Cornerback) Maxwell Hairston (knee). However, a pair of mainstays on defense, namely (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver (ankle) and (Linebacker) Matt Milano (pectoral) have missed the past 2 contests with various maladies and are expected to be sidelined once again tonight. Looking ahead, the Bills will take their act on the road for a trip to Atlanta to face the Falcons, who will be fresh off a bye, before enjoying a week off of their own.