8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Chiefs -3.5, Total: 46.5
Week 5 reaches its conclusion tonight in Northern Florida, where the surprisingly surging Jacksonville Jaguars play host to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in the midst of a stark turnround following a slow start to the campaign. Indeed, it appeared that the Chiefs (2-2, T-2nd in AFC West) would be the next team to fall victim of the dreaded Super Bowl hangover that has afflicted so many that have come up short on that grand stage, losing their first 2 games of a season for the first time during the Patrick Mahomes era. Simply put, very little went right in narrow defeats against the Chargers (27-21) and Eagles (20-17), as injuries and sloppy play left Kansas City, the 3-time reigning AFC Champions, looking like a shadow of themselves. This was particularly evident on the offensive side of the football, where (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s troops could muster just 19.0 points on 320.5 total yards, converting a subpar 34.6% of their third downs, and absorbing 16 penalties for a loss of 116 yards. Furthermore, the ground game struggled, what with a retooled Offensive Line and a listless backfield churning out 109.5 rushing yards. Hell, Mahomes (pictured below) served as their leading rusher within this stretch and actually still does 2 games later (130 yards), which isn’t a recipe for success. However, as we’ve seen them do so often before, the Chiefs would change their trajectory with successive victories over the Giants (22-9) and most recently the Ravens (37-20), with the latter serving as a return to their explosive ways of yesteryear. In those victories, the attack averaged a more recognizable 29.5 points on 344.0 total yards, with their work on third down (43.3%) noticeably better. Last Sunday’s win over Baltimore, equally desperate to right the ship after their own poor start, was the most notable for it has been quite a while that we have seen Kansas City erupt in such a manner. After conceding first blood on the opening drive of the afternoon, the hosts would have to settle for field goals on their first 2 possessions, before an interception by (veteran Linebacker) Leo Chenal kickstarted a 35-6 run featuring 4 touchdown passes courtesy of Mahomes. In a showdown between 2-time MVPs, Mahomes easily cleared his counterpart Lamar Jackson with 270 yards on 25-of-37 passing, spreading the ball to 9 different targets, 4 of which reeled in scores. Though he didn’t breach the end zone, it was a productive return to action for (Sophomore Wideout) Xavier Worthy, who in his first game since suffering a dislocated shoulder on the opening drive of that battle with the Bolts, amassed 121 yards from scrimmage on 7 touches. Over the past 2 seasons, Reid has been trying to resuscitate the dormant vertical passing game that was so prevalent during the earlier stages of this dynastic run, with Worthy expected to play a major part in that; drafted 28th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, this guy ran by far and away the fastest 40-yard dash at the combine, though only showed flashes in what can be described as tepid rookie campaign (59 REC, 638 YDS, 6 TD). With that being said, he did erupt in Super Bowl LXIX, hauling in 8 catches for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Keep in mind that (suspended Receiver) Rashee Rice has just 2 more games before he returns from his league-mandated exile, and this offense could finally take flight. Are we ready for the next evolution of this Chiefs? Stay tuned…
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Chiefs thus far, who have beaten the spread in victory and have failed to do so in defeat. Interestingly, last weekend’s romp over the decimated Ravens was the second time in 4 weeks in which they were underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium, which used to be a rare sight; since he became the starter in 2018, Mahomes has received points on his home field just once prior to the current campaign. During his 12+ years in charge, Reid is now 163-63 SU and 121-111-4 ATS overall, including 57-42 ATS away from Arrowhead, 89-83 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 76-65 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge, 79-71 ATS following a win, 79-67 ATS against all competition residing outside of the AFC West, and 15-20 ATS after scoring 35+ points. Furthermore, his troops are 13-4 ATS when favored following a double-digit ATS win, though have covered just 1 of their past 5 outings immediately after enjoying a victory of 14 or more points. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 25-18 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 3-1 ATS as a road favorite, though it should be noted that KC is 1-5 ATS in their last appearances on MNF. With that being said, Mahomes & Co have been in their element in primetime games in general, posting 20-5 ledger SU in such affairs over the last 5 seasons, with 6 consecutive wins dating back to lasty Fall. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs lead the all-time series against the Jaguars 10-6, with 8 straight wins, covering 4 of the past 6 meetings. These sides last crossed paths in a 17-9 slugfest back the early stages of the 2023 campaign; poor execution on the part of Kansas City kept this from being a blowout, as 3 turnovers, a dozen penalties for a loss of 94 yards, and a poor showing on third down (4-of-13), tempered a 399-271 edge in total yards. Of course, the difference proved to be Mahomes, who completed 29-of-41 throws for 305 yards and the game’s only 2 touchdowns, while rushing for another 30 yards on 7 carries. Speaking of the 2-time MVP, he has never lost in 5 career encounters with Jacksonville, completing a surgical 70.0% passes for 304.4 yards per game on a healthy 8.47 net yards per attempt, with 12 total touchdowns and 4 interceptions. As for his ledger ATS, Mahomes is now 68-58 ATS overall, 33-24 ATS on the road, 57-55 ATS as a favorite, 52-42 ATS versus revenge, 52-45 ATS when coming off a win, 43-28 ATS following back-to-back victories, 36-32 ATS against an opponent fresh off a win of their own, and 54-38 ATS versus non-division adversaries, though it should be noted that by far and away his worst role has come as, you guessed it, a road favorite (22-22 ATS). Since he has been generational by just about every metric, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that this guy has also been prolific on Monday nights, winning 9 of 12 outings with 29 total touchdowns opposed 10 turnovers. On the injury front, Reid & Co currently has 8 players on Injured Reserve, though are otherwise a healthy team, with (veteran Defensive Lineman) Mike Danna (quadriceps) and (veteran Cornerback) Kristian Fulton (ankle) both listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will return to Arrowhead next week for the beginning of a 3-game homestand consisting of a pair of primetime bookends, highlighted by Sunday night’s showdown with the surging Lions.
Meanwhile, could it be possible that the Jaguars (3-1 T-1st in AFC South) have finally returned to the realms of competitive football? After one of the more inexplicable nosedives in recent memory, this is a team that has gotten off to their best start since 2018 under the new regime headed by (Head Coach) Liam Coen. Of course, Coen rose to prominence as Offensive Coordinator for the Buccaneers last Fall, where he presided over the lone attack in the NFL to rank within the top-5 in both rushing and passing offense, leaving many to wonder what he could do with the pieces on hand in Duval. Granted, talent hasn’t really been the problem for the Jags, for finding a way to put it altogether has been a bit of a conundrum of late. With first-round picks littered all over the offense, there is potential for fireworks, folks, though that has yet to come despite this strong start. First, we’ll start with the good; these cats rank sixteenth in points scored (24.0), tenth in total offense (348.5), and fourth in rushing (144.0). Now, for the bad; the passing game has yet to find much of a rhythm, ranking eighteenth in yards (211.3) and twenty-fourth in net yards per attempt (5.6), leading to a disappointing showing on third down (35.2%) and within the red zone (50.0%), with each figure ranking in the bottom third of the NFL. (Former No. 1 Overall Pick) Trevor Lawrence has certainly experienced an up-and-down career thus far, though the arrival of Coen was expected to stabilize the often-underachieving talent. Statistically, Lawrence (pictured below) has been on par with his disastrous rookie campaign, completing just 58.3% of his throws with 5 touchdowns opposed to 4 interceptions and a QBR of 48.8 despite receiving by far and away the best protection of career; the 25-year-old has been sacked just 3 times in 4 games, with his sack percentage (2.04%) clocking in at the lowest such figure by a starting QB in the league. With weapons such as (prolific Sophomore Wideout) Brian Thomas and (2024 Heisman winner) Travis Hunter, it is probably just a matter of time before this unit finally clicks, but that simply hasn’t been the case at this point. Fortunately, the defense under (new Defensive Coordinator) Anthony Campanile has made up for their shortcomings with an NFL-best 13 takeaways thus far, logging at least 3 in every single game. Needless to say, you’re going to win a lot of games when you’re operating with a turnover differential of +9, which is the case for the Jaguars, who found themselves residing on the opposite end of the spectrum a year ago. In 2024, Jacksonville could muster just 9 takeaways on the whole season (32nd Overall), resulting in a differential of -15, which was the primary culprit in their regression to 4-13. Campanile’s outfit logged 4 takeaways in last weekend’s 26-21 victory at the 49ers, as (veteran Linebacker) Devion Lloyd picked off a pair of passes. This allowed the visitors to overcome a sloppy offensive showing in which they were flagged a dozen times for a loss of 90 yards, managing to convert just 4-of-14 third down opportunities along the way. Lawrence hit on 21-of-31 throws for 174 yards and a touchdown, though the star of the show was (veteran Tailback) Travis Etienne, who exploded for 124 yards on 19 carries, including a 48-yard sprint to the end zone early in the second quarter. While a win is a win, particularly for a team that didn’t earn many of them last season, there are concerns over the sustainability of their early success, with their reliance on takeaways looking more and more like fool’s gold when you consider their soft schedule thus far; the Jags have faced the Panthers, Bengals, Texans, and Niners, with that quartet of adversaries owning a cumulative 8-9 record, though keep in mind that San Francisco is 4-1 and ravaged by injuries. Will their good fortune continue as Kansas City comes to Duval? Will the Lawrence and the passing finally get in sync? Stay tuned…
From a betting perspective, the same notion applies to the Jaguars, who have also covered the spread in ech of their victories, but have failed to do so in their lone defeat. In his first season on the job, Coen is now 3-1 SU and ATS, including 2-0 ATS in Duval, 1-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 1-1 ATS following a win, and 2-1 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, Jacksonville have been a strong play at home of late, posting a 6-1-1 ledger ATS in their last 8 games played at TIAA Bank Stadium, though they have failed to cover 8 consecutive contests against a non-division opponent with a win percentage below .666 who is coming off an outright win as an underdog, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that has been downright terrible on Monday Night Football (7-30 ATS), including 2-4 ATS as a home dog, with only a single cover in their past 7 appearances overall on MNF. As we covered earlier, the Jags have traditionally struggled against the Chiefs, trailing the all-time series 6-10, losing 8 straight meetings in the all-time series, with their most recent being that aforementioned 9-17 defeat at home from 2 years ago. We touched upon how wasteful their opponent was in possession, but it’s not as if the hosts were any better; the Jaguars could muster just 3 field goals on the day, amassing 271 total yards and converting a dismal 3-of-12 on third down and failing to get either of their 2 attempts on fourth. Lawrence threw for 216 yards on 22-of-41 passing, taking 4 sacks and suffering a pair of fumbles, losing 1 along the way. Protection was a real concern for the QB, who was pressured on an untenable 35.4% of his dropbacks as Kansas City blitzed him 18 times, forcing 11 hurries and resulting in 10 throws off target. Speaking of Lawrence, he is 0-3 all-time against the Chiefs, completing 62.5% throws for 238.6 yards on just 5.55 net yards per attempt, with 3 touchdowns and an interception, along with a rushing to score. As for his ledger on MNF, he winless in 2 appearances, logging 4 total touchdowns and a pick. On the injury front, Coen has had one of the healthiest teams in the league at his disposal, with only a pair of players sitting on Injured Reserve, while (Linebacker) Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) and (Offensive Lineman) Wyatt Milum (knee) listed as out for tonight’s primetime affair due to various maladies, with (veteran Receiver) Dyami Brown’s status hanging in the balance courtesy of a sore shoulder. Looking ahead, the Jaguars are in the midst of a 3-game homestand themselves, welcoming the Seahawks in what is the longest trip for any team this season (within the United States, of course), before entering their bye following a showdown with surging Rams.