8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Eagles -7.5, Total: 41.5
Bitter division rivals renew acquaintances tonight in the Meadowlands, as the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Philadelphia Eagles look to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the season, while the New York Giants are simply in the formative stages in the career of a rookie Quarterback. While they have won 4 games through 5 weeks of action, the Eagles (4-1, 1st in NFC East) aren’t necessarily in the best of places, particularly after blowing a 14-point lead in the second half of last weekend’s 21-17 defeat at home to the Broncos. Indeed, the boobirds were out in masse at Lincoln Financial Field, folks, as Philadelphia’s consistent woes in second halves finally cost them a W. Now in his fifth season with the birds, the tenure of (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni can be divided between 2 halves: on one hand, you have the widely successful campaigns in which the birds advanced to a pair of Super bowls in 3 years, while on the other you have their dysfunctional run of 2023 where they collapsed down the stretch following a 10-1 start. Diving deeper into the matter reveals that the 44-year-old’s fortunes, and by extension that of his team, have been directly tied to whomever is calling plays on offense. From 2022 to 2023, Sirianni benefitted from the playcalling nous of (former Offensive Coordinator) Shane Steichen, who was credited with development of (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts. Off the strength of an NFC title, Steichen would be tabbed to be the Colts’ new HC, leaving Sirianni to fill the void with (former QB Coach) Brian Johnson. Unfortunately, the attack became woefully inconsistent under Johnson, particularly in the passing game, which eventually led to his dismissal after Philly’s ousting in the playoffs. Then, Sirianni outsourced and brought in Kellen Moore, whose streamlined, ruthlessly efficient approach allowed the Eagles to dominate down the stretch en route to claiming their second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. As such, Moore is now HC of the Saints, leaving (Passing Game Coordinator) Kevin Patullo to take over as OC. So, how is the latest offensive playcaller doing, you ask? Well, there may not be a hotter seat in the state of Pennsylvania, as the birds rank thirtieth in total offense (277.6), next-to-last in passing yards (177.8), and twenty-third on third down (37.9%), despite committing the fewest turnovers in the NFL and ranking first in red zone percentage (92.3%). Hurts has been steady if unspectacular, (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown has been controversially underutilized, and (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards last Fall, has averaged just 53.2 yards per game on 16.6 carries, with both figures seeing a MAJOR dip from his prolific 2024 campaign. All of these issues reached a boiling point in Sunday’s loss to the Broncos; after taking a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter following a 47-yard scoring strike from Hurts to Barkley (pictured together below), the hosts flew south as they were outscored 18-0 the rest of the way, with the offense as a whole managing just 48 total yards on their final 5 possessions, which included 4 successive punts. Barkley carried the ball just 6 times all game (30 yards), while Brown hauled in 5 of 8 targets for a meager 43 yards receiving, with Hurts often looking elsewhere with his 280 passing yards on 23-of-38 throws. As a team, the Eagles were relegated to a mere 45 rushing yards, which marks their third consecutive contest being held below the century mark and their lowest output since getting embarrassed by the Buccaneers in the 2023 Wild Card (42 yards).
From a betting perspective, the Eagles come into this midweek affair at 4-1 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as good against the spread (3-2), losing outright despite being favored by 4 points against Denver. Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, Sirianni is a stellar 58-24 SU and 43-38-3 ATS overall, including 19-17 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field, 32-27 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 16-25 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 7-12 ATS coming off a loss, and 12-13 ATS against their fellow residents within the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops are a dismal 3-14 ATS versus a sub-.55 opponent with vengeance on their mind, though have covered 11 of their last 13 meetings as road favorites at a division rival who is coming off a loss, with each trend relevant tonight. Philadelphia is also in the midst of a streak of 6 six straight covers away from home, while going 7-1 ATS over their past 8 outings immediately following a non-cover. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 11-8 on Thursday Night Football, including 2-3 ATS as a road favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, Philly leads the all-time series between these teams 96-89-2, though have clearly held the advantage of late with 7 wins in their last 8 encounters (5-3 ATS). The swept the Giants over the course of 2 legs last Fall, dominating in a 28-3 victory at MetLife Stadium, before winning a much closer affair in the Linc, 20-13. Sirianni’s side erupted for 269 rushing yards in the former matchup, though were stonewalled on that front in the latter (51 yards), though it should be noted that the bulk of their starters, including Hurts and Barkley, were healthy scratches in the season finale. Over the course of his career, Hurts is 7-3 against Big Blue, completing 59.1% of his throws for 139.8 yards on 5.77 net yards per attempt, with 8 touchdowns opposed to 6 interceptions, rushing for another 26.9 yards and 5 more scores. Furthermore, he has been strong in these midweek clashes (5-1), totaling 11 total touchdowns, 7 of the rushing variety. As for his ledger ATS, Hurts is now 37-39 ATS overall, including 20-20 ATS on the road, 29-29 ATS as a favorite, 14-28 ATS versus revenge, 6-14 ATS following a loss, 13-20 ATS against an adversary coming off a defeat, and 10-14 ATS versus the NFC East. On the injury front, Philadelphia has 9 players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, while Barkley (knee) and (Pro-Bowl Guard) Landon Dickerson (ankle) have been limited throughout the short practice week with various maladies. It would be difficult imagining Barkley missing the trip to the Meadowlands, given that he spent the first 6 years of his career with the Giants, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2018. Last Fall, he steamrolled his former employers to the tune of 176 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries in that victory at MetLife. Looking ahead, the Eagles will remain on the road for a trip to Minneapolis where they will face the Vikings, fresh off a 2-week stay abroad in Dublin/London.
Meanwhile, the Giants (1-4, Last in NFC East) are also coming off a loss, though it is far from their first defeat of this young campaign. Though they may not openly admit it, this is a team in transition despite hanging on to the embattled duo of (Head Coach) Brian Daboll and (General Manager) Joe Schoen, who enter a crucial fourth year together in the Big Apple. Make no mistake these two reside firmly on the hot seat after presiding over a disappointing 3-year run of 18-32, including 9-25 between 2022-2023. Feeling the pressure from ownership, the media, and their fanbase, Daboll and Schoen have tried to prolong their fate and extend their stay with Big Blue, swinging for the proverbial fences in last Spring’s NFL Draft with the selections of (Edge Rusher) Abdul Carter and (Quarterback) Jaxson Dart with the third and twenty-fifth overall picks, trading back up into the first round to pick the latter. While there have been plenty of holes on the roster, QB has been the prevailing problem for New York, who probably hung onto Daniel Jones a little too long, though maybe they gave up on him too soon given the success he is enjoying in Indianapolis? Either way, the greater problem is that the roster still wasn’t conducive to supporting a young passer, which is absolutely on Daboll and Schoen, who had 4 offseasons to build their team. With that in mind, the franchise acquired the services of veterans such as Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to operate as a bridge for Dart (pictured below), who wasn’t necessarily ready to start by the opener. Predictably, Wilson’s flaws came to a head quickly, leading Daboll to make the change to Dart prior to a Week 4 clash with the undefeated Chargers, which resulted in a stunning upset of the lightning bolts. The G-Men controlled this affair throughout the afternoon, pounding away at Los Angeles’ defensive front to the tune of 161 rushing yards on an industrious 42 carries and possessing the ball for a commanding 35:28, while the defense wreaked havoc in the trenches with 6 sacks, 17 pressures, 10 QB hits, and a pair of takeaways. The rookies led the way offensively, with Dart managing the game with 111 yards and a touchdown on 13-of-20 passes, rushing for 54 more yards and another score on 10 carries, while (Rookie Tailback) Cam Scattebo continued to impress with 79 yards on 25 carries. Needless to say, this was all a pleasant surprise for the Daboll and Schoen, who must have felt validated for their patience with their latest draft class. Unfortunately, that positivity wouldn’t last very long as the Giants fell victim to the struggling Saints in a dismal 26-14 performance int he Big Easy. Chalk this one up to growing pains for a young team that simply couldn’t stand prosperity against a team that many feel is the worst in the NFL. despite racing out to an early 14-3 lead on the strength of a pair of touchdown passes courtesy of Dart to (unheralded Tight End) Theo Johnson, the wheels came off the tracks for the visiting side, who went on to concede 26 unanswered points the rest of the way. New York collapsed in spectacular fashion with a stunning 5 turnovers, 3 of which were charged to the Ole Miss product, who was picked off twice and lost a key fumble early in the second half when they were trailing by just 2 points. A third fumble, this time credited to Scattebo, deep in enemy territory served as the killshot as New Orleans returned it 86 yards to paydirt. When it was all said and done, the visitors were terribly wasteful in other ways as well, committing 8 penalties for a loss of 95 yards, converting just 3-of-10 third downs, and being turned away twice on fourth down for good measure. Sure, Big Blue moved the ball with relative ease, as Dart (257 total yards) and Scattebo (104 total yards) filled the stat sheet, but that cavalcade of errors utterly destroyed any real opportunity to earn a second successive victory. Then again, that comes with territory of relying upon rookies, though it remains to be seen if this final roll of the dice will be enough to save Daboll and Schoen from the firing squad.
From a betting perspective, the Giants may be sitting in the NFC East basement at 1-4 straight-up, but they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread (2-3), with covers against the Cowboys (+4.5) and that aforementioned win over the Chargers (+6). Since arriving in the Big Apple in 2022, Daboll is now 20-37-1 SU and 28-28-2 ATS overall, including 15-12 ATS in the Meadowlands, 26-24 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 21-18 ATS when harboring revenge, 19-15 ATS following a loss, and 10-11 ATS versus their fellow residents within the NFC East. Furthermore, backing his troops as an underdog has paid off handsomely at times, folks, for Big Blue has won 16 games outright when getting points, which parlays to a .320-win percentage. New York has now failed to cover 4 consecutive contests played in the month of October, are just 1-6-1 ATS over their last 8 encounters with division rivals, and have beaten the spread once in six games against a foe with a winning record. However, they are in the midst of a 6-game streak of covers against a division adversary who is fresh off an outright loss as a favorite, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 10-7 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 1-1 as a home dog, while covering 4 of their last 5 midweek tilts immediately after a spread loss by double-digits. As we covered earlier, the Giants trail the all-time series with the Eagles 89-96-2 but have been utterly dreadful in what has become a very one-sided rivalry; the G-Men are 7-28 SU dating back to 2008, including 5-13 at MetLife Stadium and 0-3 on TNF. Of their 2 meetings from last Fall, only the first is relevant, seeing as how the birds sat virtually all of their starters in a competitive finale. When they met in the Meadowlands last October, Daboll’s troops were thoroughly dominated in a 28-3 drubbing, with the offense mustering a scant 119 total yards and 10 first downs, while Jones was sacked on 6 occasions and pressured ten times before ultimately giving way to Drew Lock. On the injury front, the biggest name on Injured Reserve is that of (Sophomore Wideout) Malik Nabers, who suffered a torn ACL in Dart’s debut against the Chargers, killing any chance of building a rapport with his young QB this Fall. Nabers hauled in 109 receptions on 170 targets for 1,204 yards and 7 touchdowns despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the league, with his absence further stacking the deck against Daboll, Shoen, Dart, and everyone else. Dart has been dealing with a tender hamstring during this brief week of practice, while (veteran Offensive Tackle) Jermaine Eluemunor (back), (Safety) Javon Holland (calf), and (Receiver) Darius Slayton (hamstring) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the path forward doesn’t get any easier for the Giants, who will hit the road for a trip to Mile High to battle the Broncos, before crossing paths with the Eagles once again in two weeks’ time at the Linc.