7:30 PM EST, ESPN2 – Spread: USF -1.5, Total: 67.5
For the second week in a row, the (No. 24) USF Bulls perform under the Friday night lights as they travel to Denton to battle the undefeated North Texas Mean Green in tonight’s AAC clash between adversaries separated by plenty of land and a few shades of green. Easily one of the better stories of this college football season has been the ascension of USF (4-1, 1-0 in AAC), who find themselves occupying a spot in the AP Poll for the first time since 2018. Now in their third season under the direction of (Head Coach) Alex Golesh, this is a program that has certainly benefitted by one of the rising stars in his profession. Indeed, Golesh inherited a dumpster fire, folks, with the Bulls winning just 3 games under the previous regime from 2020-2022, including an abysmal 1-22 in conference play. After spending the previous 3 seasons cutting his teeth under Josh Heupel at UCF and Tennessee, the 41-year-old has brought that rapid-fire offensive approach to Tampa to great effect; improving to 7-6 in his first year on the job, the Bulls’ attack was the only offense in the FBS to average 80+ plays per game, logging an industrious 82.1. Golesh would follow that success with another 7-6 finish last Fall, setting up this emergence that they currently find themselves in. Though 5 games, South Florida is scoring 36.2 points per contest (35th in FBS) on 446.0 total yards, including 257.2 yards through the air and another 188.8 yards on the ground. Early upsets over (No. 25) Boise State (34-7) and (No. 13) Florida (18-16) at the Swamp have put this group firmly on the nation’s radar, with their lone loss coming against the currently second-ranked Miami Hurricanes (49-12), which is why a lot of smart people believe that they are indeed the favorites to represent the Group of 5 in this winter’s College Football Playoff. If they do happen to get to that point, it is likely that (Senior Quarterback) Byrum Brown has played a HUGE role in their success, with the dual-threat picking up where he left off prior to a leg injury that cut his junior campaign short. Back in 2023, Brown (pictured below) set a number of school passing records, becoming the first QB in the history of the program to pass for 3,000 yards (3,292), amassing 4,101 total yards altogether with 37 overall touchdowns to boot. With 5 games in the books, he has completed 61.3% of his throws for 1,194 yards on 8.0 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns opposed to 4 interceptions, while rushing for another 282 yards and 3 more scores along the way. USF got off to a strong start in AAC play last week, blowing out struggling Charlotte in a 54-26 affair at Raymond James Stadium. This one was a bit of an odd one, as the hosts raced out to a 26-0 lead by the early stages of the second quarter, only to cool down a bit and relinquish 18 of the next 25 points. However, Brown would put any thoughts of a brewing rally to rest with passing and rushing scores on back-to-back possessions, aided by an interception courtesy of (Senior Edge) D.J. Harris. In the end, the Bulls outgained the visitors 631-279 in total yards, rolling out a ridiculous 407 rushing yards on 62 carries despite committing 4 turnovers, which just means that that final score could have been a lot more lopsided than it already was. Brown ended the night with 373 total yards and 5 total touchdowns, though did toss a pair of picks, while the loaded backfield of Nykahi Davenport, Sam Franklin, and Cartevious Norton each churned out 60+ yards on 5.0+ yards per carry.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with USF thus far, who have covered the spread in each of their victories, while failing to do so as considerable underdogs in their lone defeat (+17.5). Dating back to last season, this has been one of the more profitable teams in the country in that regard, covering 8 of their past 11 outings. Since he arrived in Tampa back in 2023, Golesh is now 18-13 SU and 17-12 ATS overall, including 8-6 ATS away from the Big Sombrero, 10-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-6 ATS following a win, and 8-9 ATS versus their fellow residents within the AAC. Furthermore, the Bulls have covered 4 consecutive contests after yielding fewer than 170 passing yards in the previous game, are 6-1 ATS over their past 7 outings immediately following a performance in which they totaled 450+ yards of offense, and have posted a 7-1-1 ledger ATS in their last 9 tilts coming after a bye week. With that being said, it should be noted that South Florida has failed to cover 4 consecutive contests on the road immediately after stringing to together back-to-back SUATS wins, which is precisely the scenario that they find themselves in tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools may call themselves neighbors within the same conference, but it has been quite a while since they have crossed paths on the gridiron. In fact, tonight’s trip to the Lone Star State marks only the second meeting between them and the first since 2002. The Bulls won each of their previous encounters, a 28-14 victory on the Gulf Coast in 2001 followed by a tightly contested 24-17 battle a year later. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of the aforementioned Norton, who came out of last weekend’s romp over Charlotte with an undisclosed malady, leaving him questionable tonight’s trip to Denton. Ironically a transfer from the Niners, Norton has posted 166 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 5.2 yards per carry thus far. Looking ahead, USF will return to Tampa for homecoming against Florida Atlantic next weekend, whom they snapped a 2-game losing streak against last Fall, before a looming trip to unbeaten Memphis on October 25th.
Meanwhile, USF aren’t the only good story brewing in the American Athletic Conference, as North Texas (5-0, 1-0 in AAC) are off to their best start in school history. Similar to their counterparts tonight, this is a program flourishing in their third year under (Head Coach) Eric Morris, who is just one win away from matching their win total from a year ago. For those not familiar with Morris, the 39-year-old’s history is rather interesting; after playing for the legendary Mike Leach at Texas Tech, he eventually returned to Lubbock in 2013, where he recruited and called plays for Patrick Mahomes, before becoming HC at Incarnate Word, where he would coach up (No. One Overall Pick in the NFL Draft) Cam Ward, whom he transferred alongside to Washington State in 2022. This guy knows offense and he knows the passing game, which has been evident to anyone who has watched the Mean Green operate this Fall. Through 5 games, the attack ranks 8th overall in the FBS in points scored (44.8) on 437.0 total yards, including 256.6 yards through the air courtesy of (Redshirt Freshman Quarterback) Drew Mestemaker. In his first season as the starter, Mestemaker (pictured below) leads the AAC in passer rating (158.4), completing 67.9% of his throws for 1,247 yards on 8.0 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. However, if the Green were going to take the next step, it would be on the defense to improve significantly, which is something that Morris was well aware of. Last season, the defense relinquished 34.2 points (119th in FBS) on an untenable 460.5 total yards, including 195.9 yards against the run, shipping 500+ yards 7 different contests. As a result, overhauled his roster, with 17 players out and 26 in, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. So far, it appears that those changes have been precisely what the doctor ordered in Denton, as North Texas has held allowed a more respectable 20.0 points per game (42nd in FBS) on 316.2 total yards, with the biggest improvement coming against the pass (135.8). Takeaways have been the biggest factor in their success, logging 11 of them already, which parlays to a very healthy +8 turnover differential. A combined 8 takeaways in victories over Morris former employers at Washington State (59-10) followed by an overtime affair at Army (45-38) has helped level the field and put the ball back in the hands of Mestemaker and the attack. However, last weekend’s 36-22 victory over South Alabama proved that they could also win without enjoying such a deluge of takeaways; after conceding a touchdown on the opening drive, the Mean Green erupted with 21 unanswered points, highlighted by a 68-yard score from Mestemaker to (Freshman Tailback) Caleb Hawkins, who with 3 total touchdowns on the day leads the AAC with 8 total scores from scrimmage. The hosts only outgained the Jaguars by 39 total yards and were outrushed 204-195, but got the necessary stops down the stretch, halting them twice on fourth down in the final stanza. Mestemaker completed 14-of-26 passes for 234 yards and that strike to Hawkins, who compiled a whopping 218 yards from scrimmage on just 18 touches, while (Junior Linebacker) Ethan Wesloski had 4 tackles and a key interception in the second period to turn the tide in his team’s favor. The question at the end of the day is if living off of all these takeaways sustainable? We should be closer to an answer following a visit from USF’s prolific attack…
From a betting perspective, North Texas may be undefeated, but they are 4-1 against the spread, covering each of their past 3 outings, all of which have come as favorite. Since arriving in Denton back in 2023, Morris is now 16-14 SU and 16-10-2 ATS overall, including 8-4 ATS at DATCU Stadium, 9-5 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 8-3 ATS following a win, and 9-7 ATS against their fellow residents within the AAC. Furthermore, his troops are commanding 7-1 ATS as a home favorite, while coming into tonight on a streak of 8 straight covers immediately after securing a victory over a conference opponent. With that being said, these weekday affairs have been a tricky proposition for the Mean Green, who have covered just 1 of their last 9 such games. Also working against them are the following trends: Morris & Co have failed to cover 4 consecutive contests coming after a bye week and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 encounters with a conference adversary. As we covered earlier, these programs haven’t meant in over 20 years, with this clash marking their first as members of the American Athletic Conference. North Texas has never beaten USF (0-2), though one would have to believe that they are better suited to do so than back in the early 2000s when a few years into their residency within the Sun Belt. On the injury front, the Mean Green have some backfield issues of their own, as (Sophomore Tailback) Kiefer Sibley is listed as questionable after missing the last 3 outings with an undisclosed malady. On the season, Sibley has amassed 111 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns on 15 touches. Looking ahead, North Texas is in the midst of a 3-game homestand which wraps up next weekend against UTSA, whom they have failed to beat in 4 of their past 5 encounters.