8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Chiefs -2.5, Total: 52.5
A pair of Super Bowl contenders who have been traveling in opposite directions clash in primetime, as the surging Detroit Lions battle the maddeningly inconsistent Kansas City Chiefs from Arrowhead Stadium. Coming into this season, the narrative around the Lions (4-1, 1st in NFC North) was how they would manage losing a number of high-profile assistant coaches from (Head Coach) Dan Campbell’s staff, which had become the belle of the proverbial ball around the league. From 2022-2015, Detroit went 36-15, including 27-7 over the past 2 years, winning a pair of division titles and advancing to their first NFC Title Game in over 3 decades. These cats are young, talented, and deep, with the coaching staff naturally receiving a wealth of credit for developing them into one of the true powerhouses in the NFL. However, when you enjoy such success, you also attract plenty of interest, which was a looming fate that finally came to a head in this past offseason as Campbell (pictured below) bid farewell to 8 different assistants, chief among them (former Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson, who ironically remained within the division by taking over the Bears. Again, the question remained: how in the hell would this supremely talented group survive without the playcaller who had so deftly pulled their strings? Well, in true Shakespearean fashion, it appears that it was all much ado about nothing. Sure, the Lions laid a bit of an egg in their opener at Green Bay with just 13 points and 246 total yards, but since this team has been on a tear ever since, winning 4 consecutive games by a sizable 76 points. During this stretch, Detroit has averaged a robust 40.3 points on 394.8 total yards, including 237.8 yards through the air on 8.75 net yards per attempt, with another 157.0 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry, with it all translating to a very healthy 6.55 yards per play. (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jared Goff hasn’t missed a beat without Johnson, leading the league in completion percentage (75.2%) and passing scores (12), while the backfield tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continues to be prolific with both Tailbacks rushing for 300+ yards and 4 touchdowns apiece, with (2-time All-Pro Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown hauling in an NFL-best 6 touchdowns of his own. Indeed, (new OC) John Morton has done a tremendous job of simply keeping the ball rolling in the Motor City, as the Lions have set a franchise record for points scored through the first 5 games of a season (174), eclipsing the mark set by his predecessor in either of the 4 previous campaigns. Their torrid run continued in last weekend’s catfight in Cincinnati, which wasn’t nearly as close as the 37-24 final score would lead you to believe. The visitors led 28-3 heading into the fourth quarter, thoroughly dominating the Bengals through that period before conceding some late points and yards. When it was all said and done, Detroit was prolific despite not being at their statistical best, possessing the ball for a commanding 34:21 of gametime despite converting just 2-of-8 third downs and being flagged 8 times for a loss of 56 yards. Goff completed an efficient 19-of-23 throws for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns, though was sacked 4 times and lost a fumble, while Gibbs and Montgomery combined for 119 yards rushing, with the latter scoring a touchdown in his hometown. Furthermore, St. Brown reeled in 8 receptions on 9 targets for 100 yards, while (third-year Tight End) Sam LaPorta wasn’t far behind with 5 catches for 92 yards and a score. Defensively, they continued to perform at a high level under the direction of their new DC, Kelvin Sheppard, forcing 3 takeaways, running their total to 9 during this win streak, all of which were interceptions courtesy of (Defensive Backs) Amik Robertson, Kerby Joseph, and (Linebacker) Alex Anzalone.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Lions, who have covered the spread in each of their quartet of victories, while failing do so in their lone defeat, which came in that aforementioned opener at Lambeau Field (+1.5). If there has ever been a telling sign that the national perception of a franchise has changed for the better, it is in the respect that the oddsmakers have shown Detroit during Campbell’s tenure in the Motor City; since 2023, this is a group that has been an underdog on just 6 occasions, which is 4 less than their total from the 2022 campaign (10), which was his second in charge. In his 4+ years on the sideline, Campbell has built one of the more impressive ledgers in the NFL, going 45-31 SU and 54-22-2 ATS overall, including 21-7 ATS away from Ford Field, 12-5 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 17-8 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 25-11 ATS following a win, 26-11 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North, and 13-2 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points. Furthermore, his troops have covered 5 consecutive contests played in the month of October, another 4 in a row against an opponent below .500, and are a commanding 19-2 ATS after enjoying a cover by double-digits, with each of these trends relevant for tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 9-10 ATS on Sunday Night Football, including 3-5 ATS as a road dog, though it should be noted that they last time they met the Chiefs in a primetime affair, they pulled an outright upset at Arrowhead (21-20) in the 2023 season opener. That victory was their first over Kansas City since 2011 and their first on the road since 1988. This was a cagey affair in which both sides proved to be stout defensively, though it was the visitors who made the big plays in the second half, particularly (young Safety) Brian Branch, whose 50-yard interception to the house early in the second half allowed the Lions to draw level and secure momentum the rest of the way. Goff completed 22-of-35 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown, while Montgomery led the way with 74 rushing yards and the game-winning touchdown. The defense really did a number on the defending Super Bowl champions post intermission, conceding just 6 points and 145 total yards, forcing 3 punts, a turnover on downs, and that pick-6 along the way. Getting back to Goff, he has never lost against the Chiefs (2-0) completing 63.1% passes for 333.0 yards per game on 7.48 net yards per attempt, with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions, which includes a memorable 54-51 shootout at the LA Coliseum back in 2018 on Monday Night Football, in which he erupted for 5 touchdown passes en route to leading the Rams to an NFC title. Primetime has often suited the 30-year-old, who owns a 23-9 record in night games, with 55 total scores and 38 turnovers. As for his ledger ATS, the Cal product is now 70-50 ATS overall, including 38-26 ATS on the road, 28-21 ATS as a dog, 31-21 ATS versus revenge, 38-31 ATS off a win, 19-21 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, 33-28 ATS against a foe fresh off a loss, and 48-35 ATS opposite of non-division opposition. On the injury front, Campbell & Co are beginning to see the Injured Reserve list pile up, with a dozen players residing there, while 5 more defenders are expected to miss tonight’s trip to Kansas City, if not more time down the road. (Linebacker) Zach Cunningham (hamstring), (Defensive Tackle) Alim McNeil (knee), and (Defensive Backs) Khalil Dorsey (concussion) and Terrion Arnold (shoulder) are all out of action tonight, while (Offensive Tackle) Taylor Decker (shoulder), (Cornerback) D.J. Reed (hamstring), and the aforementioned Joseph (knee) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Lions will return to Ford Field to host the Buccaneers on MNF next week, before enjoying their bye week which will be spent getting healthy for the second half of the campaign.
Meanwhile, it has been quite some time since the dreaded Super Bowl Hangover has been a hot topic when it comes to the general public, but we think that it may be time to talk about that when it pertains to the Chiefs (2-3, 3rd in AFC West). Since the turn of the century, the team that met defeat in the Super Bowl failed to make the playoffs the following season on a dozen occasions, though this is something that has been fairly rare of late, occurring just 4 times in the past 16 years. No matter how you look at it, Kansas City was annihilated in Super Bowl LXIX against the Eagles (40-22), crushing any opportunity at securing a historic threepeat. However, if there is a team that was built to buck such a trend, it would have to be one coached by Andy Reid and quarterbacked by Patrick Mahomes with a defense coordinated by Steve Spagnuolo, right? After all, when they were embarrassed in Super Bowl LV, they bounced to back to finish 12-5 and compete in yet another AFC Title Game. How could this time around be any different, you ask? Well, this current incarnation of the Chiefs has flaws for sure, though it appears that they’ve been exploited far more often in the early stages of this season than they have in the past. Sure, Mahomes (pictured below) continues to be great, completing 63.4% of his throws for 251.4 yards per game on 6.34 net yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, suffering just 7 sacks through 5 games. However, the offense as a whole has been inconsistent due in large part to a Receiving Corps ravaged by injury and suspension, and a ground game that has struggled to find its footing. It’s rather remarkable that with a quarter of the season in the books, we still find Mahomes leading the team in rushing yards (190), which isn’t necessarily what Reid is looking for in terms of achieving balance. The Offensive Line has undergone some changes in personnel, while (Tailbacks) Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have struggled to make an impact, placing more pressure on Mahomes to extend plays with his legs. Speaking of pressure, the 6-time Pro-Bowler has succumbed to it on more than one occasion during this start, particularly when it comes to uncharacteristically poor decisions made in the red zone. Twice, he has thrown crucial interceptions with his team knocking on the door of the end zone, the first coming late in a Super Bowl rematch with Philadelphia (17-20), with the second coming in last weekend’s loss in Jacksonville, a 99-yard pick-6 that completely swung the momentum of the affair. However, there have been signs of life on this side of the ball as (Sophomore Receiver) Xavier Worthy is rounding into form after a separated shoulder suffered in the opener knocked him off course, while (third-year Wideout) Rashee Rice is due to return to action after serving a 6-game suspension next week. Apart from that pick-6, the attack looked prolific for a second consecutive week, racking up 476 total yards, 26 first downs, and 158 rushing yards, which are all season-highs. Mahomes hit on 29-of-41 throws for 318 yards a passing touchdown and a rushing score, while Hunt and Pacheco combined for 85 yards and a pair of scores of their own. This defeat though, came down to the defense and special teams. After engineering a surgical 12-play, 86-yard drive that bled 6.23 off the clock to take the lead with just 1:45 remaining, (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker produced a major gaffe by kicking the ensuing kickoff out of bounds, granting the Jags the ball on the 40-yard line. From there, the defense simply could not get off the field, with a crucial pass interference in the end zone, gifting the hosts possession on the 1-yard line, before an awkward Trevor Lawrence, who bit the dirt after being tripped by his own Lineman post snap, stumbled into the end zone with nary a single Chief able to bring him down despite a plethora of defenders being within arm’s reach of the QB.
From a betting perspective, what you see is also what you get with the Chiefs, who have also covered the spread in their victories, while failing to do so in defeat, which was the case in last Monday night’s entertaining clash with the Jaguars (-3.5). Since arriving in Kansas City back in 2013, Reid is now 163-64 SU and 121-102-4 ATS overall, including 55-58 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium, 89-84 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 40-35 ATS when harboring revenge, 30-24 ATS following a loss, and 79-68 ATS against all non-division opponents, be it the AFC West or the NFC East from during his time with the Eagles. Furthermore, his troops have covered just 1 of their last 12 games immediately after shipping 30+ points and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 outings versus adversaries who are above .500, with both trends proving relevant for tonight’s affair. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 19-21 ATS on Sunday Night Football, including 8-7 ATS as a home favorite. With that being said, this is a team that has really relished playing in primetime of late; over the past 5 seasons, KC is 21-7 SU in night games, including 6-2 SU dating back to last Fall. For those wondering, they are 1-2 SU in such tilts in 2025. As we covered earlier, the Chiefs own a 9-6 edge in the all-time series between these teams, though have lost 3 of the past 5 meetings, with the most recent being that aforementioned 21-20 defeat in the 2023 opener. These kinds of games can be a bit of a crapshoot, what with emotions riding high as a championship banner is raised, but for whatever reason, the reigning Lombardi holders looked something other than themselves; the hosts could muster just 316 total yards of offense and converted 5-of-14 third downs, though were stonewalled on their lone attempt on fourth down, and committed by far and away the biggest mistake of the night, a momentum-swinging pick-6 of Mahomes. Speaking of the 2-time MVP, he performed rather below his lofty standards, completing just 21-of-39 passes for 226 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another 46 yards on 6 carries. Anytime he is the team’s leading rusher there is a problem, which is ironically a problem that still exists today. Over his career, Mahomes is 1-1 against Detroit with 270.5 yards per game on 6.68 net yards per attempt, a pair of touchdowns and an interception. As Kansas City has enjoyed primetime success, so has he, posting a 27-12 ledger in night games with 283.1 yards per contest on 7.08 net yards per attempt, 88 total touchdowns and 30 turnovers. For those wondering about his portfolio ATS, Mahomes is now 68-59 ATS overall, including 35-34 ATS at home, 57-56 ATS as a favorite, 20-16 ATS with revenge, 16-10 ATS following a loss, 36-33 ATS against an opponent coming off a loss, and 54-39 ATS versus non-division opposition. On the injury front, Reid currently has 8 players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, while the rest of the roster is largely healthy with the only questionables for tonight’s tilt being (Cornerback) Kristian Fulton (ankle) and (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Omarr Norman-Lott (shoulder). Looking ahead, the Chiefs are in the midst of a 3-game homestand, which will continue with their annual visit from the struggling Raiders, before crossing paths with the Commanders for yet another primetime affair, this time on MNF.