8:15 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Commanders -4.5, Total: 50.5
A rematch of one of the most fateful battles of last Fall is on tap tonight in Landover, as the surging Chicago Bears emerge from their bye week to face the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football from Northwest Stadium. Though this is the second overlapping doubleheader that the NFL has provided us within 3 weeks, the latter leg of this primetime twostep is by far and away the more intriguing for a variety of reasons, most notably for how their previous meeting dramatically affected their fortunes moving forward. For the Bears (2-2, 4th in NFC North), they came into that showdown at a mildly surprising 4-2, looking ahead of the rebuilding curve with designs on snapping a 3-year playoff drought, though that obviously didn’t come to pass due in large part to the SEISMIC impact of this 18-15 defeat. Though they struggled offensively throughout the afternoon, Chicago found a rhythm late, taking a 15-12 lead in the fourth quarter. However, their fortunes changed for the worse on the final play of the game, as they inexplicably conceded a 52-yard Hail Mary, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, a twist of fate that began an utterly dreadful 10-game losing streak. Needless to say, this failure struck deep as the organization fired literally everyone with the exception of (General Manager) Ryan Poles, who went on to lead the second rebuild of his tenure with the franchise. Make no mistake, Poles was under major pressure to get this hire right, particularly given how poorly the supporting cast functioned around (2024 No. One Overall Pick) Caleb Williams. To say that the 2022 Heisman failed to live up to expectations last Fall would be an understatement; though he managed to protect the football with just 6 interceptions, Williams was sacked an untenable 68 times, which was easily the most in the league. Sure, part of the issue was his protection, while his penchant for holding onto the ball to hunt bigger plays downfield got him in trouble far too often, but you would be hard-pressed to find anyone that would argue against the coaching staff setting him up for failure. As such, the Bears made the biggest coaching hire of the offseason, landing (Lions Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson in an attempt to maximize the talent of their young Quarterback and by extension, a talented offense that was rarely greater than total sum of its parts. So, how far have Williams and Chicago come along under the guidance of Johnson (pictured below) you ask? Well, it was admittedly a slow start in losses to Minnesota (27-24) and his previous employers in Detroit (52-21), but they have really found their footing over the last two games, a 31-14 thumping of the Cowboys and a dramatic 25-24 victory over the Raiders. In that latter pair of outings, the offense averaged 328.0 total yards, including 250.0 through the air, with a much more efficient showing on third down (50.0%) and committing only a single turnover along the way. To his credit, Williams has completed 63.1% of his throws during this stretch, for 510 yards on a healthy 7.69 net yards per attempt, with 5 touchdowns opposed to one interception, while taking only a single sack along the way. This is where Johnson has come in, folks, speeding up his QB’s processing and decision-making, encouraging him to get the ball out of his hands and hit the open man, no matter how far he is downfield. Furthermore, his influence is evident in their sudden ability to keep the chains moving; last season, the Bears ranked next-to-last in third down percentage (32.9%), improving to 45.5% through 4 games thus far (6th Overall).
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Bears, covering the spread in their two victories and failing to do so in their two defeats. Of course, all that matters is the most recent pair for Johnson, who in his long-awaited first year as a HC is now 2-2 SU and ATS, including 1-1 ATS away from Soldier Field, 2-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 1-0 ATS following a win, and 2-0 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, Chicago is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after shipping 150+ rushing yards, 1-9 ATS over their past 10 tilts as underdogs coming off a non-conference road venture, and in the midst of a 9-game losing streak ATS immediately after a bye week. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 29-36 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 15-14 ATS as a road dog, which is precisely where they find themselves in tonight’s trip to the nation’s capital. Despite only being 4 games into the campaign, this is already their second such primetime affair, with everyone associated with the team hoping it goes better than the first; the Bears struggled in a disappointing 27-24 loss at home to the Vikings in the opener, posting just 254 total yards with 127 yards lost to penalties. Looking at this particular matchup, Chicago trails the all-time series 25-28-1 SU, though have won just 4 times in their last 19 encounters. Of course, tonight’s clash is a rematch of that fateful crossing of paths from last October, which altered the trajectory for both teams, sending Williams & Co on that lengthy skid that ultimately cost Johnson’s predecessor his job. Despite a listless start in which the visitors punted on 6 of their first 7 possessions, the Bears pulled ahead via a 56-yard rushing score courtesy of (former Tailback) D’Andre Swift, followed by another touchdown run by (Tailback) Roschon Johnson, compounded by a successful 2-point conversion from Williams to (Tight End) Cole Kmet. We know how it went from there, folks, though in totality this was nothing short of a slog for the denizens of the Windy City, who could muster just 307 total yards and converted a dismal 2-of-12 on third down, while getting stopped on their lone attempt on fourth down, and committing the game’s only turnover. Williams struggled mightily, completing 10-of-24 throws for 131 yards, while suffering 3 sacks, 13 pressures, and a lost fumble. Ironically, that game also came immediately following a bye week for the Bears, which is once again the case tonight. Getting back to Williams, he is now 10-9 ATS overall, including 4-6 ATS on the road, 8-7 ATS as a dog, 4-5 ATS with revenge, 4-1 ATS following a win, 1-1 ATS after back-to-back victories, 5-3 ATS against an opponent coming off a win, and 8-5 ATS opposite of non-division foes, with by far and away his least profitable role coming as…. you, guessed it, a road dog (4-6 ATS). It should be noted that he has had a hard time in primetime, going winless in four such outings, completing 59.5% of his passes for 174.3 yards on a poor 4.38 net yards per attempt, with 3 total touchdowns in comparison to committing 4 turnovers. On the injury front, Johnson currently has 5 players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, chief among them being (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaylon Johnson, who has been relegated to just one game thus far with a groin malady and has now gone undergone core muscle surgery that will likely sideline him until November. As for the rest of the roster, (Safety) Jaquan Brisker (quadriceps), (Defensive Tackle) Grady Jarrett (knee), and (Offensive Tackle) Darnell Wright (elbow) are each at risk of missing tonight due to a variety of ailments, while (Cornerback) Kyler Gordon (hamstring), (Tight End) Colston Loveland (hip), and (Guard) Jonah Jackson (ribs), are all listed as questionable after being limited throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, the Bears will return to Soldier Field to host the Saints next weekend, before beginning a 2-game road trip within the AFC North at the Ravens and then the Bengals.
Meanwhile, that miraculous victory served as a launching pad for the Commanders (3-2, 2nd in NFC East), who would go on to finish with a 12-5 record, their most wins since 1991, which was coincidentally the last time that the franchise hoisted a Lombardi Trophy. Outside of winning the Super Bowl, it is hard to imagine last season going any better for Washington, who enjoyed all of this success in the first year of the new regime, spearheaded by (Owner) Josh Harris, (General Manager) Adam Peters, (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, and (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury. When teams go through rebuilding, they oftentimes have to crawl before they can walk, and then walk prior to running, but that wasn’t the case for this group, who spent most the campaign flying, parlaying that strong showing in the regular season to a resurgent playoff run that came to a head with their first trip to the NFC Title Game in over three decades. Ironically, much of their success came with the second overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, (Offensive Rookie of the Year) Jayden Daniels, who was selected one pick after his counterpart tonight. Indeed, the 2023 Heisman lived up to the hype, completing an efficient 69.0% of his throws for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns opposed to 9 interceptions, while rushing for another 891 yards and 6 more scores. Furthermore, between his talents and Kingsbury’s playcalling, the attack proved to be one of the most formidable in the NFL, ranking fifth in points scored (28.5), seventh in total offense (385.4), and sixth in both third down percentage (45.6%) and red zone percentage (63.4%). After retaining the OC in the offseason and adding key veterans such as (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) Deebo Samuel and (5-time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Laremy Tunsil, the expectation coming into this Fall was that the Commanders would be better suited for to break through reach the Super Bowl. While there is plenty of football left to played, that goal currently feels well outside of their reach, due in large part to injuries to key personnel, most notably Daniels (pictured below). After suffering 7 sacks in the first 2 games, the sophomore suffered a strained MCL and would go on to miss the following 2 games, while (veteran Tailback) Austin Ekeler was lost for the season with a torn ACL, with (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Terry McLaurin missing a number of games due to a lingering quad bruise. With key components of the offense missing, the defense would be exposed in a 34-27 loss in Atlanta, relinquishing 435 total yards. Thankfully, everything seemed to return to normal when Daniels returned to action in last weekend’s 27-10 victory over the Chargers; Washington spotted the hosts 10 points and then went on to score 27 unanswered points and all but 30 of their 389 total yards on their final 6 possessions of the afternoon. Sure, the visitors converted just 2-of-7 third downs and possessed the football for only 25:41 of game time, but they rushed for 163 yards and won the turnover battle 2-1, due in large part to a pass-rush that exploited a decimated Offensive Line. Quinn’s troops logged 5 sacks, 8 pressures, and 3 hits of the opposing QB, with (Sophomore Cornerback) Mike Sainristill coming up with a crucial late interception to kill a 14-play drive from Los Angeles to get back into the affair. Daniels was solid if unspectacular in his return, completing 15-of-26 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another 39 yards on 8 carries, but the star of the show was (Rookie Tailback) Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Dubbed simply as Bill for those seeking a nickname for the 7th-round pick, he filled the void left by Ekeler, erupting for 150 yards from scrimmage and a pair of rushing scores.
From a betting perspective, as was the case with their opponent tonight, what you see is what you get when it comes to the Commanders, who have covered the spread in each of their three victories and have failed to do so in their pair of defeats. Last weekend, marked the first time that they had both won and covered as underdog since last January’s eye-opening upset of the Lions in the divisional round of the playoffs, besting the bolts despite receiving three points from the oddsmakers. Since arriving in Landover a year ago, Quinn is now 17-8 SU and 15-9-1 ATS overall, including 9-2 ATS at Northwest Stadium, 9-4 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 6-4 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 9-6 ATS following a win, and 11-5 ATS against all foes residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops are 4-0-2 ATS over their last 6 outings within the month of October and are in the midst of a run of 5 consecutive covers at home. Though they have lost in each of their last 2 such scenarios thus far, Washington is 9-3 ATS immediately after a double-digit SUATS victory, while covering 6 of their last 7 tilts after shipping 10 or fewer points in the previous game, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no strangers to Monday Night Football, though this hasn’t been the most beneficial of platforms. Whether they’re the Redskins, Football Team, or Commanders, they are just 21-37 ATS, including 5-12 ATS as a home favorite. With that being said, they have covered each of their last 4 appearances on MNF, with Daniels winning/covering in his first and only showing thus far, a 38-33 upset of the Bengals. As we touched upon earlier, Washington has owned this series of late, posting a 15-4 ledger since 2006, which obviously includes their most recent crossing of paths, that aforementioned improbable 18-15 victory from last October. How close this game was doesn’t really do the hosts justice, as Quinn’s outfit dominated the game statistically, outgaining Chicago 481-307 in total yards, 23-15 in first downs, and 326-131 in passing yardage, while also winning the turnover battle (+1). Unfortunately, they simply couldn’t break through in the red zone, settling for a quartet of field goals from (former Kicker) Austin Seibert, before Daniels set the crowd ablaze with 52-yard Hail Mary to Noah Brown as time expired. It was validating for the eventual Offensive Rookie the Year, who turned an otherwise strong performance with 326 yards passing and another 52 yards rushing, while McLaurin hauled in 5 receptions on 8 targets for 125 yards. Jer’Zhan Newton really flashed in the trenches on the defensive side things, logging 3 tackles, a sack, 4 QB hits, and a forced fumble. Getting back to Daniels, he is now 9-5 ATS overall, including 7-2 ATS at home, 8-4 ATS as a favorite, 6-3 ATS versus revenge, 10-5 ATS following a win, 6-5 ATS against a foe coming off a win, and 10-4 ATS opposite a non-division adversary, with his most rewarding role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (7-2 ATS). On the injury front, Quinn has 7 total players on Injured Reserve, though all eyes are on the receiving corps, who could very well be without McLaurin, Samuel, and Brown for tonight’s primetime affair. McLaurin has missed each of the past 2 weeks with a bruised quadriceps, while the latter two pass-catchers were added to the report with Samuel dealing with a nagging heel malady and Brown hampered a tender groin. Looking ahead, the Commanders will hit the road for the next two weeks, making their annual trip to AT&T Stadium to battle their bitter rival, the Cowboys, before making the trek to Arrowhead for another MNF showdown, this time against the reigning AFC Champion, Chiefs.