8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Steelers -5.5, Total: 43.5
Bitter rivals who have found themselves in vastly different situations meet for the first time this season, as the surging Pittsburgh Steelers make their annual trip to Southern Ohio to battle the beleaguered Cincinnati Bengals, who have gone into a downward spiral after losing their franchise Quarterback to injury. With six weeks in the books and no true contenders within the AFC revealing themselves, the Steelers (4-1, 1st in AFC North) must be feeling awfully good about themselves. Though they have long been one of the more stable organizations in the NFL, this is a franchise that hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty standard befitting a 6-time Super Bowl Champion. Sure, (longtime Head Coach) Mike Tomlin put together a stellar 80-50-2 record from 2016 to 2024, including a pair of division titles and five trips to the playoffs, but his troops have laid a proverbial goose egg in the postseason (0-5), which has driven the faithful in Western Pennsylvania mad of late. So, what gives, you ask? Well, by far and away the most glaring weakness that has haunted the Steel Curtain during that span has been subpar play at the game’s most important position: Quarterback. Simply put, Pittsburgh completely mismanaged the latter stages of the Ben Roethlisberger era, with nary a viable succession plan in place, while the past three years since his retirement have seen a revolving door of disappointing QBs; Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, and Justin Fields all struggled to move the needle, while Russell Wilson caught fire when he took over last Fall, only to come crashing back to Earth over the final stretch of the campaign. And it’s with that said that the Steelers signed up for the Aaron Rodgers experience, courting the 4-time MVP for months until he finally arrived to sign his contract. While he’s as decorated as they come, Rodgers (pictured below) hasn’t been the god-level QB we remember for quite some time now, making this a serious roll of the dice for Tomlin and everyone in the front office. Then again, the rest of the division has been utterly decimated at QB due to injury, making for a golden opportunity to position themselves favorably for a playoff run. Thankfully, the early returns have been positive with the 42-year-old and the offense showing signs of becoming a more stable unit than last year’s maddeningly inconsistent group. Rodgers has completed 68.8% of his throws for 204.2 yards per game on 6.51 net yards per attempt, with 10 touchdowns opposed to 3 interceptions, slowly developing a rapport with (veteran Wideout) D.K. Metcalf, who the team acquired via trade in the offseason. Sure, it hasn’t necessarily been pretty thus far, as Pittsburgh ranks fourteenth in points scored (23.8) and twenty-ninth in total offense (277.8), but they have been playing clean football with just three turnovers (5th Overall) and a healthy margin of +7 (2nd Overall), while getting it done in the red zone with a 71.4% success rate (6th Overall). Case in point: last weekend’s 23-9 victory over the Browns was a serious slog early on, as the hosts relied upon three field goals from (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell through poor weather, before Rodgers eventually found his rhythm with a pair of touchdown passes, the latter of which went 25 yards to Metcalf to put the game out of reach. Pittsburgh did produce a season-high 335 yards of total offense against one of the tougher defenses in the league, remaining balanced with 100 rushing yards on 28 carries, so that their aging QB could operate unabated. For the second time in three games, Rodgers wasn’t sacked, hitting on 21-of-30 throws for 235 yards, 95 of which went to Metcalf. Will this marriage between legendary QB and legendary franchise continue to grow? Against Cincinnati’s porous defense, the outlook is looking likely…
From a betting perspective, the Steelers may be 4-1 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (3-2), equating to a net profit of 0.73 units. This is a team that is turning the corner in that regard, particularly after last season’s calamitous end in which they concluded the campaign on streak of four consecutive non-covers. Since arriving to Western Pennsylvania back in 2007, Tomlin is now 195-119-2 SU and 160-145-11 ATS overall, including 76-74 ATS away from Acrisure Stadium, 97-106 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 50-55 ATS when harboring revenge, 92-87 ATS following a win, and 62-48 ATS versus their fellow residents within the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops are 13-5 ATS against an adversary coming off a loss, 12-4 ATS after a double-digit victory and set to face an opponent fresh off a road trip, and 6-1 ATS immediately after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in the previous week. Also, they have covered six straight road tilts against division rivals when harboring revenge and fresh off a victory by 10+ points. However, Pittsburgh is in the midst of a 1-4 stretch ATS on the road, while covering just three out of nineteen outings on the road win and facing a sub-.333 foe, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 10-14 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 2-4 ATS as a road favorite and 1-10 ATS versus an opponent coming off a defeat. These midweek affairs have proven to be a difficult task in general for the Steel Curtain, who are just 1-4 ATS in their past five appearances on TNF. Looking at this particular matchup, these bitter adversaries have met 111 times with the Steelers owning a commanding 71-40 advantage in the all-time series, including 51-19 since 1991 and 19-5-2 ATS over their past 26 meetings. With that being said, the two sides split their battles from last season, with each side winning on the other’s home field. Pittsburgh won a 44-38 shootout in Cincinnati in early December before falling short in a 19-17 defeat in a season finale in which Tomlin sat many starters. Of course, Rodgers was elsewhere during those matchups, owning a career ledger of 2-2 versus the Bengals, completing 62.5% of his throws for 290.5 yards per game on 6.45 net yards per attempt, with 7 touchdowns opposed to 4 interceptions. On Thursday nights, he has done much better, posting a 13-6 record with 42 touchdowns in comparison to just 5 interceptions. Over the course of his brilliant career, Rodgers is now 149-111 ATS overall, including 70-63 ATS on the road, 110-84 ATS as a favorite, 58-46 ATS with revenge, 88-72 ATS following a win, 60-43 ATS after back-to-back victories, 68-54 ATS versus a foe coming off a loss, and 58-35 ATS against division rivals. On the injury front, Tomlin certainly has one of the healthier teams in the NFL at the moment, with the only players at risk of missing this midweek clash being (young Wideout) Calvin Austin (shoulder) and (veteran Safety) Miles Killebrew (knee), a 2-time Pro-Bowler on Special Teams, who are both listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, business will pick up for the Steelers in the coming weeks, as they return to Acrisure to host the Packers in a primetime rematch of Super Bowl XLV, which ironically came against Rodgers, followed by a visit from the surprising Colts.
Meanwhile, the early stages of this campaign have been an utter nightmare for the Bengals (2-4, 2nd in AFC North), even after shedding their annual early-season woes. That’s right, folks, for the first time during the Zac Taylor era, Cincinnati got off to a 2-0 start, though that’s it for the good news as this is a team that hasn’t tasted victory since. What happened, you ask? Well, All-Pro Quarterback and reigning Comeback Player of the Year, Joe Burrow, bit the dust midway through the second game, suffering torn ligaments in the worst case of turf toe that one could imagine. Needless to say, this is a HUGE blow to a team that has relied very much on their elite passer, who enjoyed a career campaign last Fall, leading the NFL in a slew of categories, including passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43). Even with that kind of production and a wealth of firepower surrounding him, Burrow could only lead these cats to a 9-8 finish, missing the playoffs for a second consecutive season, due in large part to a disastrous defense that ranked in the bottom third of the league in nearly every metric. Well, if anyone wondered just how much Burrow meant to this team, the NFL may want to consider giving him the MVP based on how poorly the Bengals have performed without him. In these four losses, the offense has mustered just 13.7 points on a dreadful 230.0 total yards, with a turnover differential of -5. (Longtime Backup QB) Jake Browning was a such a disaster, tossing eight interceptions in four games, that the Bengals desperately traded within the division, acquiring (veteran QB) Joe Flacco. Of course, Flacco (pictured below) is the oldest player at his position behind only Rodgers, suiting up for his sixth different franchise at the ripe old age of 40. While it remains to be seen if the former Super Bowl MVP can steady the proverbial ship, this has all been a damning indictment on Taylor, (Director of Player Personnel) Duke Tobin, and (longtime Owner) Mike Brown, who together have done a terrible job of maintaining this roster after coming so close to securing their first Lombardi Trophy four years ago. In breaking the bank to sign Burrow and (2024 Receiving Triple Crown) Ja’Marr Chase long term, along with fellow Wideout, Tee Higgins (who is performing on the Franchise Tag), Cincinnati has neglected to address their many existing flaws, including a habitually porous Offensive Line and a dreadful defense that continues to be one of, if not the worst, in the NFL. New Defensive Coordinator, Al Golden, hasn’t moved the needle in Southern Ohio, as his unit ranks thirtieth in points allowed (30.5) and next-to-last in total defense (394.1), and that is with the reigning sack leader, Trey Hendrickson, applying heat off the edge. Flacco isn’t going to change any of that, though for what it’s worth, the Bengals were far more competitive than they had been in recent weeks, pestering Green Bay in a 27-18 defeat at Lambeau field last weekend. It says an awful lot about Flacco that he was able to absorb the playbook and build some semblance of a rapport with his teammates after arriving just five days before kickoff, but that’s what he did, connecting on 29-of-45 throws for 219 yards and a pair of touchdowns, finding Chase for a late score to cut the deficit to six points with just over four minutes left in regulation. Furthermore, he presided over an offense that didn’t commit a single turnover, while suffering only one sack, which again is a remarkable feat given how lost this group looked under Browning, who has been with the team for three seasons now. Will Flacco turn back the clock and replicate his miraculous 2023 stint with the Browns in which he tossed thirteen touchdowns over the final five games to propel them to the playoffs? With that defense, we doubt it, but it should be fun to see the old guy give it a shot…
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Bengals thus far, who are 2-4 both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 2.18 units. However, they have mixed it up a bit on each of those front, with a SU win but no cover in the season opener at Cleveland (-5.5), while suffering a SU defeat in last weekend’s venture to Lambeau Field where they covered as 14.0-point underdogs. Since arriving in Southern Ohio back in 2019, Taylor is now 53-58-1 SU and 61-46-5 ATS overall, including 25-22 ATS at Paycor Stadium, 31-25 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 27-16 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 29-23 ATS following a loss, and 18-18 ATS against their fellow residents within the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops have been particularly poor against division rivals, covering just four of their last fifteen such encounters (4-10-1 ATS), which has been a greater issue against the Steelers. Cincinnati is just 5-19-2 ATS over the past thirteen years versus Pittsburgh, though four of those covers have come over the last five seasons. While this has certainly been a one-sided rivalry in its totality, these cats actually own a 5-4 edge in their last nine meetings, splitting their annual battles over the past three seasons. The two sides combined for 82 points and 895 total yards when they met at Paycor, as three turnovers ultimately did in the hosts. Chase and Higgins each hauled in a touchdown while combining for 155 yards on eleven receptions, though it should be noted that Burrow was pulling the trigger on this day, amassing 309 yards and three scores yet also accounting for all three turnovers, including a strip sack fumble that was returned 21 yards to the house early in the fourth quarter. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 9-7 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football, including 1-0 ATS as a home dog, while posting a 7-1 ledger ATS versus an adversary coming off a SUATS victory, which is precisely the situation that they find themselves in tonight. As for Flacco, the wily old vet is making his fourteenth appearance on TNF (8-5), with 20 touchdowns opposed to 10 interceptions. He is certainly no stranger to the Steelers, who he is 12-13 against over the course of his career, completing 60.1% of his throws for an average of 222.1 yards on 5.91 net yards per attempt, with 30 touchdowns in comparison to 16 interceptions. On the injury front, Taylor only has a pair of players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, though Burrow’s absence is by far and away the most significant on the roster. As for the rest of the team, (veteran Tight End) Mike Gesicki is going to miss some time with a strained pectoral muscle, while the aforementioned Hendrickson has been limited throughout the brief practice week with a tender hip. Looking ahead, the Bengals will continue this 3-game homestand that will mercifully extend into their bye week, hosting the winless Jets next weekend before welcoming the surging Bears.