7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Miami -12.5, Total: 53.5
ACC rivals fresh off a bye week despite entering it under very different circumstances clash under the Friday night lights at Hard Rock Stadium, as the (No. 2) Miami Hurricanes look to remain unbeaten in this showdown with the upset-minded Louisville Cardinals. After weeks of trending in the wrong direction and flirting with defeat, Louisville (4-1, 1-1 in ACC) suffered their first loss two weeks ago, a narrow 30-27 overtime thriller at the hands of (No. 18) Virginia. Indeed, the Cardinals had lived dangerously in previous weeks, looking unconvincing in victories over James Madison (28-14) and on the road at Pittsburgh (34-27), before the !@#$ hit the proverbial fan against the Cavaliers. Over the course of his coaching career, (Head Coach) Jeff Brohm has been lauded for his work on the offensive side of the ball, particularly with quarterbacks, which makes sense given that he himself was a stellar QB during his collegiate days with the Redbirds. Last season, his attack was very effective at 36.5 points per game (9th in FBS) on a fairly-balanced 449.2 total yards, with a turnover differential of +6. This Fall, they’ve scored a similar 36.0 points (30th in FBS), but have been rather one-dimensional, rushing for just 115.0 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. Granted, a lot of this has been due to injuries to the backfield, which has been a bit of a revolving door (more on that shortly), though this lack of traction on the ground has been very evident in their last two outings. Against the Panthers and Wahoos, they were relegated to a disappointing 53.5 yards per contest on an untenable 1.8 yards per attempt. 5 takeaways saved their bacon against Pitt, but that was not the case versus the Cavs, which served as a case of their passing game collapsing under the weight of having to carry the attack. Louisville outgained UVA 383-237 in total yards, but committed the only two turnovers of the game, while also missing a 42-yard field goal just before the stroke of halftime. (USC transfer) Miller Moss, who hit on 34-of-48 passes for 329 yards and a pair of touchdowns, was picked off not long after his team stopped the visitors on fourth down midway through the third quarter, which has been something of an issue for the senior over his career; going back to last Fall, Moss (pictured below) has thrown 25 touchdowns in comparison to 13 interceptions, including a 7/4 ratio thus far with the Cardinals. With that being said, he did engineer a 10-play, 40-yard drive culminating in a 50-yard field goal to send the game to OT, though they could only settle for three points on the opening possession of the extra period, with Virginia breaching the end zone four plays later. Moss was sacked 5 times on the day, which is yet another sign of the attack being too one-dimensional, with Brohm needing to make adjustments in lieu of tonight’s trip to South Beach where Miami’s hellacious defense is vastly improved over the unit that the redbirds torched last Fall.
From a betting perspective, Louisville may be 4-1 straight-up thus far, but they have resided on the opposite end of the spectrum against the spread, covering just one game thus far. Since returning to his alma mater two years ago, Brohm is now 23-9 SU and 12-17-1 ATS overall, including 4-7 ATS away from L&N Stadium, 3-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-3 ATS following a bye week, 4-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 2-5 ATS when coming off a loss, and 8-10 ATS versus their fellow residents within the ACC. Furthermore, his troops have covered 4 of their past 5 road ventures and are 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games after a bye against an opponent who is .500 or better. With that being said, the Cardinals have failed to cover 5 consecutive contests in the month of October, while beating the spread just once in their past 5 outings immediately after a defeat. Also, these midweek affairs have been troublesome for the redbirds, who are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday night games. Looking at this particular matchup, Louisville trails the all-time series between these schools 4-10 SU, with these encounters turning into shootouts in recent years; 1-3 SU and ATS in the past 4 meetings, the Cards have averaged a healthy 36.0 points against the Hurricanes, but have shipped an untenable 45.5 along the way, including 52 in last Fall’s track meet in northern Kentucky. This one was fun to watch, folks, with the two sides combining for 986 total yards, 661 passing yards, 51 first downs, and a whopping 13 total touchdowns, including 100-yard kickoff return to the house courtesy of (Senior Wideout) Caullin Lacy. (Former QB) Tyler Shough was in his bag, completing 31-of-51 throws for 342 yards and 4 touchdowns. On the injury front, . Looking ahead, Louisville will return to L&N Stadium to play host to struggling Boston College, who have lost 5 games in a row since their season opener, before making a trip to Blacksburg to battle another stumbling adversary, Virginia Tech. For those wondering, Brohm is 3-0 against those two schools during his time leading the Cardinals, including a 31-27 thriller versus the Golden Eagles in Chestnut Hill last Fall.
Meanwhile, for the second straight season, Miami (5-0, 1-0 in ACC) is unbeaten through 5 games, though this time around it feels like they have some serious staying power moving forward. As we hinted at earlier, the Hurricanes left a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the football last year, shipping 25.3 points per game (69th in FBS) on 327.2 total yards, which was a major reason why they fell apart down the stretch, losing three of their final four games, missing out on the CFP Playoff following a 9-0 start. Seriously, folks, you have to be pretty bad defensively to lose games when your offense is scoring a robust 43.9 points and logging 7.6 yards per play, both of which led the nation. But that was the case for The U last Fall, who in their three defeats relinquished 37.3 points on 421.3 total yards. As such, (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal fired virtually his entire defensive staff, hiring Corey Heatherman away from Minnesota as his new Defensive Coordinator, while hitting the Transfer Portal hard on both sides of the football. The result has been a far more balanced team, with Canes invoking the defenses of their glory days; thus far, the D has been a revelation, yielding just 13.6 points per contest (9th in FBS) on 276.4 total yards and forcing 9 turnovers, while wreaking havoc at the line of scrimmage with 12.0 sacks, 31 tackles for loss, and 6 forced fumbles. The Defensive Line has been the key here, folks, where (Junior Edge-Rusher) Rueben Bain may very well be a Heisman candidate. Indeed, the former 5-star recruit has put it altogether this season, leading the team in tackles (26), along with 3.5 tackles for loss, a pair of sacks, a forced fumble, and even an interception. When we last saw him, Bain (pictured below) and his teammates smothered their bitter rivals, Florida State, in a 28-22 victory in Tallahassee, relegating the hosts to a season-low 132 rushing yards. Keep in mind that the Seminoles had come into that showdown at Doak Campbell Stadium with arguably the most prolific offensive in the country, 53.0 points on 600.0 total yards, which equates to 8.2 yards per play, though were held well below their lofty standards, mustering 404 total yards (4.9 y/p). In truth, this one wasn’t nearly as close as that final score would indicate, as Miami led 28-3 early in the fourth quarter before visibly taking their foot off the gas, as Heatherman’s unit logged 3 takeaways, 2 sacks, and 5 tackles for loss on the night. (Georgia transfer) Carson Beck continued to provide a steady presence at QB, completing 20-of-27 throws for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns, including a pair of 40+ scores to (Freshman Receiver) Malachi Toney, who finished the affair with 107 receiving yards on seven receptions.
From a betting perspective, Miami may be unbeaten straight-up, but they have also been a strong play against the spread (4-1), covering each of their past three outings, including that triumph over their bitter rivals in Tallahassee (-3.5). Since returning to his alma mater three years ago, Cristobal is now 27-16 SU and 17-23 ATS overall, including 9-12 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium, 12-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-4 ATS following a bye week, 4-8 ATS against a foe harboring revenge, 9-15 ATS following a win, and 8-17 ATS versus their fellow residents within the ACC. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have failed to cover 9 consecutive home games after a bye coming off a win over a conference adversary, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, The U own a 10-4 all-time advantage over Louisville, including 3-1 SU and ATS over their past 4 encounters, though it should be noted that the favorite has covered all but one of the last 7 meetings. These affairs have been seriously entertaining of late, with that aforementioned 52-45 shootout from last October serving as a harbinger of things to come for the ‘Canes, whose defensive woes would eventually prove to be their undoing (448 total yards). Ironically, it would be a defensive play that proved to be the difference in this one, folks, as (former Defensive Lineman) Simeon Barrow forced a fumble deep in enemy territory, which (Junior Linebacker) Raul Aguirre scooping it up for a touchdown. Of course, there is plenty of history entwining these programs together; (legendary Head Coach) Howard Schnellenberger put Miami on the map in the early 1980s, winning their first national championship in 1983, before making the move to Louisville two years later, where he would eventually lead them to their first 10-win campaign in school history (1990). On the injury front, . Looking ahead, the Hurricanes will host struggling Stanford, who will be making the long trip across country, before in turn leaving the state of Florida for the first time this Fall against SMU in Dallas.