7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Alabama -9.5, Total: 58.5
Contenders in what appears to be a wide-open SEC cross paths yet again, as the (No. 11) Tennessee Volunteers hope to find their rhythm in conference play, while the (No. 6) Alabama Crimson Tide have revenge on their minds in this primetime affair from Tuscaloosa. Despite being very much in the mix within the hierarchy of the SEC, there have been some growing concerns with Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 in SEC), who have been far from convincing of late in back-to-back close calls. First, the Volunteers barely survived a 41-34 overtime affair in Starkville, where Mississippi State gave them literally everything they could handle. Trailing 34-27 late in regulation, (Senior Quarterback) Joey Aguilar engineered a clutch drive culminating in a 6-yard jaunt into the end zone to push the game into OT, where (Sophomore Tailback) DeSean Bishop took the opening play 25 yards to paydirt. Though his offense amassed 466 total yards, (Head Coach) Josh Heupel couldn’t have been happy with how sloppy they were in committing three turnovers, while his own defense continued to struggle in shipping 203 rushing yards to the Bulldogs. Thankfully, a well-timed bye week should have provided the Vols with an opportunity to course correct, but that would not be the case when they emerged to host a struggling Arkansas side that had just fired their HC. While this certainly set up to be a get-right game for Tennessee, the visitors made a game of it late; after running off 24 unanswered points to lead 34-17 early in the fourth quarter, the hosts nearly collapsed down the stretch as the Razorbacks scored 10 straight points to draw within a field goal. Fortunately for everyone at Neyland Stadium, that would be as close as they would get as the home side ran out the clock to earn a 34-31 win. Again, the Volunteers defense struggled to contain their opponent, as the Hogs torched them for 496 total yards, including 240 yards on the ground, with their only saving grace being three takeaways, all of which were recovered fumbles. Aguilar (pictured below) was more efficient with 221 yards and a touchdown on 16-of-25 passing, while also factoring into the run game with 59 yards on five carries. Speaking of the rushing attack, Bishop was the player of the game, with a season-high 146 yards on just 14 carries despite being dogged by a lingering ailment (more on that in a bit). As they now find themselves heading into tonight’s crucial showdown in Tuscaloosa, what do we really make of Tennesse, you ask? While most people will associate this group with Heupel’s prolific, up-tempo attack, the biggest reason for their success last season, which culminated in a trip to the Playoff, was the play of a vastly improved defense. Indeed, (Defensive Coordinator) Tim Banks had a borderline dominant unit in 2024, relegating opponents to 16.1 points (7th in FBS) on 293.2 total yards, including 189.3 yards versus the pass, while holding five different adversaries to a season-low in yardage. However, even with eight returning starters from that group, this current incarnation of the Vols’ defense has left a lot to be desired in relinquishing 29.3 points per game (106th in FBS) on 393.8 total yards and 257.8 passing yards. Furthermore, opposing QBs completed just 58.8% of their passes last Fall, with that figure inflating to 66.5% through six games. Needless to say, this is NOT what you want to be dealing with Alabama’s high-powered aerial attack on deck…
From a betting perspective, Tennessee may come into tonight’s trip to Tuscaloosa at 5-1 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread (3-3 ATS), parlaying to a net loss of 1.18 units. This is a team that started strong on that latter front, covering each of their first three outings, though their fortunes have changed of late, suffering as many successive non-covers, including last weekend’s narrow victory over the Hogs (-10.5). Since arriving in Knoxville back in 2021, Heupel is now 42-16 SU and 29-25 ATS overall, including 8-11 ATS away from Neyland Stadium, 5-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 7-8 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 18-19 ATS following a win, and 14-20 ATS against their fellow residents within the SEC. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for it reaches 10 points, then it is worth mentioning that his troops are 0-4 ATS a double-digit underdog. Furthermore, the Volunteers have failed to cover all but one of their last five road ventures, while matching that mark in their past five away games versus an opponent with a winning home record, and equaling that ledger after suffering a spread defeat. Looking at this particular matchup, the Vols trail the all-time series by a sizable margin (39-60-7), though they have split the past four meetings, with each side victorious on their home turf (4-0 ATS). When they crossed paths last Fall, Heupel’s troops trailed 10-7 late in the third quarter before erupting to outscore the Crimson Tide 17-7 over the final 16:00 of play. When it was all said and done, the hosts overcame three turnovers and eleven penalties for a loss of 95 yards, thanks in large part to a massive rushing edge (214-75) with (former Tailback) Dylan Sampson churning out 139 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Defensively, Tennessee did a tremendous job of bottling up the visitor’s explosive attack, shipping just 314 total yards and yielding a scant 2.2 yards per rush. On the injury front, the most notable situation is that of the aforementioned Bishop, who is listed as probable with an ongoing lower body malady. Bishop leads the SEC in yards per carry (7.6) and is coming off a career-high rushing performance in last weekend’s win over Arkansas. As for (Junior Cornerback) Jermod McCoy, who had an interception in last year’s triumph over the Tide, doesn’t appear to be coming back anytime soon after missing the first six games with an undisclosed issue. Looking ahead, the Volunteers will remain on the road next week for a trip to Lexington where they will face struggling Kentucky, whom they have bested in four consecutive encounters.
Meanwhile, that crushing 31-17 upset in Tallahassee sure does feel like it occurred a long time ago, as Alabama (5-1, 3-0 in SEC) has now won five consecutive contests since that disappointing showing in their season opener. Indeed, such are the lofty expectations in Tuscaloosa, where any defeat is met with venomous outrage from the fan base and the media. Then again, this is what happens when you follow the living legend that is Nick @#$%^&* Saban. To say that the Crimson Tide were successful during the reign of their former HC is a serious understatement: from 2007 to 2023, this is a program that went 201-29 (.877), including 117-18 in SEC play, winning NINE conference titles and SIX National Championships, all the while flooding the NFL with a wealth of talented players. Hell, this is a guy that lost no more than two games in a season over the final thirteen years of his reign of terror, which made last Fall’s 9-4 finish all the more problematic for (Head Coach) Kalen DeBoer. Needless to say, nobody in Tuscaloosa cares about what DeBoer did at Washington, for winning ten games is the bare minimum at ‘Bama. Again, with that all in mind, you can imagine the pressure that the 50-year-old has been facing after getting blindsided by Florida State in that opener. With that being said, if we’re all going to criticize him when he fails, we have to give him his flowers when he succeeds, whether that success is expected or not, for it appears that DeBoer and his team heard that wakeup call loud and clear. During this 5-game win streak, Alabama has returned to form on both sides of the football, averaging 38.4 points on a robust 449.0 total yards, while relinquishing just 14.6 points on 274.4 total yards, all the while enjoying a healthy turnover differential of +8. Reuniting with (Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb, who was DeBoer’s righthand man at Washington, has led to a more familiar vertical passing attack, led by (Junior Quarterback) Ty Simpson and the dynamic duo of (Receivers) Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. After patiently biding his time for three years, Simpson is flourishing within this scheme, completing an efficient 70.9% of his throws for 279.7 yards per contest on 8.9 yards per attempt, with an SEC-best sixteen touchdowns opposed to only one interception. Of course, it helps having absolute studs in the receiving corps such as Williams and Bernard (pictured together below). Williams, who burst onto the scene last Fall as a true freshman with 865 yards and eight touchdowns, has picked up where he left off with 21 receptions for 336 yards and three scores, while Bernard (a former transfer from Washington), has been equally effective with 28 catches, 412 yards, and five touchdowns. However, we saw in last weekend’s nervy 27-24 victory at (No. 14) Missouri that the Tide could still roll without these playmakers being at their best. With Williams out due to injury (more on that shortly) and Bernard held to just 20 yards on three receptions, Simpson still found a way to dissect the Tigers for 200 yards and three touchdowns, while the defense sealed the deal with a pair of interceptions in the fourth quarter to stave off another upset. (Sophomore Linebacker) Yhonzae Pierre forced a pair of fumbles, (Senior Defensive Lineman) Lebbeus Overton logged 1.5 sacks, and (Freshman Defensive Back) Dijon Lee called game with the INT of Beau Pribula deep in enemy territory to put the game on ice.
From a betting perspective, Alabama has bounced back nicely after suffering an upset in their opener, winning each of their past five games straight-up and covering the spread in all but one of them along the way (4-1-1 ATS), equating to a net profit of 2.64 units on the season. During his time in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer is now 14-5 SU and 10-7-1 ATS overall, including 7-3 ATS at Bryant-Denny Stadium, 8-7-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 1-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 6-5-1 ATS following a win, and 6-4-1 ATS against their fellow residents within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have covered four of their last five contests versus opponents coming off back-to-back wins and are 6-1 ATS over their past seven home games opposite an adversary owning a winning road record. As we covered earlier, the Crimson Tide have absolutely owned this rivalry (60-39-7), with that dominance extending to the spread; ‘Bama is a staggering 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings with Tennessee and 7-2 ATS in the past nine encounters contested in Tuscaloosa. However, the home team has won and covered four straight affairs, which includes that aforementioned 24-17 defeat in Knoxville last Fall. In DeBoer’s introduction to this rivalry, the Tide was uncharacteristically sloppy and undisciplined, shipping 214 rushing yards and drawing the ire from the officiating crew an untenable 15 times for a loss of 115 yards. Simply put, it is very difficult to win a game on the road in which you’re giving up over a field’s length in penalty yardage, which was the case as (former QB) Jalen Milroe struggled to carry what became a very one-dimensional and predictable attack, with 239 yards on 25-of-45 passing, with a touchdown and two interceptions. Williams and Bernard amassed 73 and 72 receiving yards respectfully, with the former scoring on a short touchdown early in the second quarter, though was largely contained at a pedestrian 9.1 yards per carry. On the injury front, Williams is listed as questionable for tonight’s showdown due to an undisclosed malady, while (Senior Tailback) Jamarion Miller is in the same boat after leaving last weekend’s victory in Missouri due to an unknown issue, which is notable given that he also missed the first three games to open the campaign. Looking ahead, Alabama will hit the road for a trip to Columbia to battle South Carolina next weekend, whom they barely beat in a thrilling 27-25 affair from last Fall.