4:05 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Chargers -1.5, Total: 48.5
A pair of division leaders clash in the City of Angels, as the surprising Indianapolis Colts travel westward to face the Los Angeles Chargers, who have been best by a rash of injuries in recent weeks. After going 17-17 in his first two seasons with the club and missing the playoffs narrowly each year, the pressure was on (Head Coach) Shane Steichen to deliver for the Colts (5-1, 1st in AFC South), who haven’t advanced to the postseason since 2020. As coaches so often do when they find themselves on the hot seat, Steichen made some bold decisions. First, he parted ways with (Defensive Coordinator) Gus Bradley and replaced him with Lou Anarumo in an attempt to bring more versatility and game-planning to that side of the football, rather than simply sitting back in a predictable Cover-3 shell. Second, he opted to move on from (third-year Quarterback) Anthony Richardson, who for a variety of reasons has struggled throughout his tenure with the franchise that drafted him fourth overall. From 2023 to 2024, Richardson had missed nineteen games to various injuries, while showing little growth as a passer; the Florida product completed just 50.6% of his throws during this time with more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (11) and a QBR of 45.0. Questions about his effort and work habits were the final nail in the proverbial coffin, as Indianapolis turned to another former first-round pick, Daniel Jones, who appears to be the latest reclamation project to flourish in a new environment. Similar to how fellow early first-rounders such as Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have done, Daniels (pictured below), who was selected sixth overall by the Giants back in 2019 and spent six years largely struggling in the Big Apple, now looks like a borderline MVP candidate in Indy. Seriously, folks, this is a guy that went 24-44-1 in New York, committing more turnovers (74) than any other player at his position from 2019-2024, eventually leading to his release midway through last season. However, there was a feeling that Steichen, who rose to prominence for the work he did in developing Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, could unlock the potential within the 28-year-old and in turn, unleashing an offense littered with playmakers. Thankfully for all parties involved, the rise of Indiana Jones has been a smashing success. Thus far, the Colts rank first in the NFL in points scored (32.3), fourth in total yards (383.6), fifth in passing (251.8), sixth in rushing (131.8), second on third down (47.0%), and tenth in the red zone (65.5%), all the while committing the seventh-fewest turnovers (4), all but one of which coming in the same contest. Jones has been reborn this Fall, completing a career-high 71.7% passes for 250.3 yards on a healthy 7.90 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, with a QBR of 80.8, which is 17.1 points higher than his previous highwater mark. Unsurprisingly, the key has been better playcalling and a much strong supporting cast which has in turn kept him clean and upright, which is paramount for a guy that 208 times in seventy games with the G-Men. That breaks down to a percentage of 8.49%, which is night and day in comparison to the protection that he has received thus far, suffering just five sacks at the lowest rate in the league (2.70%). (Former All-Pro Tailback) Jonathan Taylor has been resurgent as well, leading the NFL at 603 yards and seven scores, while (Rookie Tight End) Tyler Warren has been a versatile playmaker with 370 receiving yards and three total touchdowns, including an 8-yarder to open his team’s ledger in a 31-27 victory over the decimated Cardinals last weekend. This one was way more competitive than many people could have imagined, as Steichen matched wits with Jonathan Gannon, who served as the Eagles’ DC during their time together in Philly, while (journeyman QB) Jacory Brissett received the start in place of an injured Kyler Murray, returning to Indy where he played from 2017 to 2020. Trailing 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter, the hosts strung together back-to-back touchdown drives, as Jones found (Wideout) Josh Downs for a short touchdown followed a brief jaunt into the end zone from Taylor to give them the lead. Finally, the defense finally made a stand on a 4th-and-7 from their own 9-yard line, as Brissett’s final attempt fell wide of the target. When it was all said and done, the Colts were outgained 400-355 in total yards and struggled to get the Redbirds off the field (9-of-14 on third down), but made the plays necessary to win. Jones was 22-of-30 for 212 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another twenty yards and a score, with Taylor racking up 137 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches, and Warren adding 63 yards on six catches.
From a betting perspective, the Colts may be 5-1 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (4-2), failing to cover two of their last three games after a stellar start consisting of three consecutive SUATS victories. Could it be that the oddsmakers have finally adjusted to Indianapolis? Three of their past four outings have seen them favored by 6+ points, including last weekend’s close call against the fading Cardinals (-8.5). In his 2+ years on the job, Steichen is now 22-18 SU both SU and ATS overall, including 9-9 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium, 11-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-10 ATS following a win, and 13-14 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered four straight games against AFC adversaries, five of their last six contests in the month of October, and fourteen of eighteen tilts in which both sides are coming off a non-division affair. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for Indy has found a bit of a sweet spot when the spread falls between -3 to +3, going 8-2 ATS under Steichen in such games, which includes a 33-8 drubbing of the Dolphins in the season opener (-1.5). However, it hasn’t been all rainbows and unicorns for these guys, who are just 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with foes sitting above .500, while covering just one of their past four outings immediately after scoring 30+ points in the previous game, with both trends relevant this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, the Colts lead the all-time series 20-11 SU, though are just 2-8 in their last ten encounters, while owning a 2-7-1 ledger ATS during that period. They last crossed paths back in 2022, a listless 20-6 loss at Lucas Oil, in which the offense was downright dreadful in mustering just 173 total yards and ten first downs, failing to convert a single third down (0-of-10), while going 1-of-4 on fourth down. With that being said, this is a very different team from the one that took the field three years ago, for it was pre-Steichen and pre-Jones, while Taylor missed the game due to injury. Speaking of Jones, today’s trip to Los Angeles marks his first ever meeting with the Bolts, though it isn’t his first time playing at SoFi Stadium, having competed their just three short weeks ago. Ironically, this was also the site of his lone loss as the starter in Indy, a narrow 27-20 affair against the Rams. This one wasn’t short on entertainment value, folks, as the visitors really were the architect of their own demise, committing three turnovers, along with a costly mistake by (young Wideout) Adonai Mitchell, who lost control of the football just before breaching the end zone, resulting in a touchback and wiping a touchdown off the scoreboard that 17-13 in favor of Indianapolis early in the second half. Jones was 24-of-33 passing for 262 yards, a touchdown and a pair of interceptions, while Taylor amassed 96 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches, with Warren hauling five receptions on six targets for 70 receiving yards. Anarumo’s unit was torched, shipping a season-high 462 total yards to Los Angeles in a dismal performance punctuated by giving up an 88-yard touchdown with just 1:44 left in regulation. On the injury front, Steichen currently has eleven players languishing on Injured Reserve, while (veteran Cornerback) Kenny Moore is expected to miss a fourth consecutive contest due to lingering soreness in his Achilles. Keep an eye on the status of another Defensive Back, Charvarius Ward, who was a late scratch last weekend after colliding with a teammate and suffering a concussion. As such, he is listed as questionable to return today. Looking ahead, the Colts will return home to host the struggling Titans, whom they thumped 41-20 a month ago, before business picks up with a trip to Pittsburgh followed by a showdown with the upstart Falcons in Berlin.
Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2, 1st in AFC West) experienced a renaissance last season, their first under (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh, reaching eleven wins, their most since 2018. As expected, Harbaugh not only streamlined the offense, but instilled a toughness and physicality on both sides of the football that had been lacking for years, which is exactly was needed to happen for a team that was very much going through a transitionary phase. Los Angeles shed a number of weight (I.E. veteran contracts) last Fall, which led the Bolts to adopting a very different approach than before, running the football in an attempt to minimize mistakes and playing sound defense. Interestingly, they were actually outgained by their opposition in totality (-3 whole yards), but compensated for that with an outrageously healthy turnover margin of +12. Along with frequent collaborator, Greg Roman, Harbaugh seemed to take (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Justin Herbert and confine him within a square cell, resulting int he most efficient campaign of his young career. Remember, this is a guy who threw for 17,223 yards though his first four seasons, which is the second-most in NFL history by Peyton Manning, though 2024 was all about getting more out of less; Herbert (pictured below) posted career-lows within a 17-game season in a number of categories, including completions (332), attempts (504), and passing yards (3,870). However, he tossed 23 touchdowns in comparison to a mere 3 interceptions, while improving his net yards per attempt from a career-low 5.98 to 6.65, which is indicative of taking more judicial shorts downfield. After an offseason spent bolstering his supporting cast, the expectation was that the proverbial shackles would be removed from the 27-year0old, which certainly appeared to be the case during the Chargers’ impressive 3-0 start. Unfortunately, a plethora of injuries has decimated one of the better Offensive Lines in the NFL, along with a rebuilt Backfield that was supposed to serve as the backbone for the attack (mor eon that in a bit), leaving Herbert to carry the burden of the offense. Since Week 4, Los Angeles has averaged just 19.0 points per game on 359.0 total yards, with the passing game accounting for just 5.20 net yards per attempt, which is due in large part to Herbert suffering 8 sacks. To mitigate matters, Harbaugh and longtime collaborator, Greg Roman, have been forced to resort to a quicker, short passing game, that doesn’t necessarily suit the skillsets of the weapons left at their disposal. Furthermore, the offense has committed five turnovers with a margin of -1, which as we know when it comes to Harbaugh, runs counter to success. Unsurprisingly, they have gone 1-2 during this stretch, very nearly suffering a third successive defeat in last weekend’s 29-27 rally to beat the Dolphins. This was a serious case of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, folks, as the Bolts looked lethargic in the cross country, 1:00 PM affair. After three field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Cameron Dicker sustained them in the first half, Herbert finally found (Sophomore Wideout) Ladd McConkey for a breakthrough touchdown midway through the third quarter. After an interception return the ball to their possession just four plays later, (Backup Tailback) Kimani Vidal breached the end zone to stretch their lead to 23-13. Dicker would tack on another three points in the fourth period to make it 26-13, only for the hosts to strike back on successive drives, taking a 27-26 lead with just 0:46 left in regulation. Rather than stand there wondering what hit them, the visitors bounced back thanks to a 40-yard kickoff return from (veteran Tailback) Nyheim Hines to set them up in great field position, before Herbert found McConkey once again for a 42-yard reception to give Dicker an opportunity to win it at the death, which the Texas product did with ease. When it was all said and done, the Bolts received 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns from Herbert, an eye-opening 124 rushing yards from Vidal, and exactly 100 receiving yards from McConkey, while the defense forced three crucial turnovers, all of which were interceptions of Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers may be sitting atop the AFC West at 4-2 straight-up, but this is a team has split their ledger against the spread (3-3), failing to cover any of their last three outings, including last weekend’s late winner at Miami (-3.5). Since returning to the NFL last Fall, Harbaugh is now 15-9 ATS and 15-8-1 ATS overall in Los Angeles, including 7-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium, 13-6 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 9-5 ATS following a win, and 7-8 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. That last figure is a bit unusual for the veteran tactician, whose teams have generally performed well versus non-division foes, posting a 38-21 record ATS dating back to his time leading the 49ers, only to be 0-3 ATS in such games thus far in 2025. As we covered earlier, Los Angeles has owned the series between these franchises of late, winning eight of the past ten meetings dating back to 2005 when they were still located in San Diego, covering seven of them along the way (7-2-1 ATS), while winning four out of five played in Southern California. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned 20-6 affair from 2022, the Bolts’ defense utterly dominated a decimated Colts’ offense, relegating their opponent to 173 total yards, while totaling SEVEN sacks and forcing three turnovers. As for Herbert and the Offense, it was far from a clean performance, with the prolific QB throwing for 235 yards on 24-of-31 passing, but was intercepted once, lost a fumble, and was sacked on four occasions, in his lone career start against Indianapolis. Over the course of his career, Herbert is now 45-38 ATS overall, including 30-26 ATS as a favorite, 20-20 ATS at home, 22-19 ATS following a win, 20-18 ATS versus an opponent coming off a win of their own, and 26-29 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, Harbaugh’s outfit has been ravaged thus far, particularly along the Offensive Line and in the Backfield. Both Starting Offensive Tackles, Rashawn Slater (knee) and Joe Alt (ankle) are out with significant maladies, the former done for the season and the latter expected to return at some point in November, while (reserve Linemen) Trey Pipkins (knee) and Jamaree Salyer (knee) have also been either held out of practice or limited this week. As for the Backfield, (veteran Tailback) Najee Harris (Achilles) is lost for the remainder of the campaign, with his understudy, (Rookie Tailback) Omarion Hampton, sitting on short-term Injured Reserve with a high ankle sprain. In totality, there are thirteen players expected to be out of action this weekend, which has really leveled the proverbial playing field in recent weeks. Furthermore, (emerging Wideout) Quentin Johnston missed last weekend’s trip to Miami with a tender hamstring and is thus listed as questionable for today’s game. Looking ahead, the Chargers likely can’t afford any more injuries as they will be turning right around to host the Vikings next Thursday before traveling to Nashville a week later to take on the struggling Titans.