7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas A&M -2.5, Total: 47.5
SEC powers currently heading in vastly different directions meet tonight in Death Valley, where the (No. 3) Texas A&M Aggies look to remain perfect while the (No. 20) LSU Tigers are desperate to bounce back after suffering their second defeat in three games. In a season in which the Southeastern Conference appears to be more wide-open than it has in roughly two decades, it has come as mild surprise to find Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0 in SEC) sitting atop the more traditional powers of the league. However, that is the reality of it all, as (Head Coach) Mike Elko is one win away from matching last year’s win total with (at least) five games left to play. Of course, the former Aggies’ Defensive Coordinator didn’t necessarily endear himself to the faithful in College Station, particularly after finishing 1-4 down the stretch following a promising 7-1 start. Then again, the 48-year-old did inherit a mess leftover from his former employer, Jimbo Fischer, who continues to be the recipient of the grandest buyout for a Head Coach in college football history (which is relevant given recent events). However, we’re going to give credit where credit is due to Elko (pictured below), who is making good on his reputation as a builder, with eight returning starters on both sides of the football and a top-10 recruiting class to boot. Coming into this season, the keys to success were going to be the continued growth of (Sophomore Quarterback) Marcel Reed, who enters his first full season as the starter, and replenishing a defensive front that lost a wealth of talent to the NFL. In regard to the former, Reed has developed on schedule, completing 61.9% of his throws for 1,770 yards, fifteen touchdowns and four interceptions, while continuing to pay a role in the run game with another 241 rushing yards and four more scores. Interestingly, his completion percentage has been in line with that of the previous campaign (61.3%), though he is getting far more bang for his buck, with more attempts (+7.05), more yards per pass (+1.0), and many more yards per game (+83.4). As a result, the offense as a whole has gotten better too, scoring 36.1 points per game (27th in FBS) on 464.0 total yards, equating to a robust 6.7 yards per play, which is an improvement of 1.8 yards from a year ago. As for the defense, that has been a bit of a different story. Sure, they’ve been statistically on par with their predecessors, but Elko’s unit has struggled mightily against the better attacks that they’ve come across, particularly that of Notre Dame and Arkansas, both of which were narrow victories in which their own offense had to bail them out. Against the Irish, it took nearly 400 total yards from Reed to prevail in an epic 41-40 affair, while last weekend’s 45-42 win over the Razorbacks saw them torched for a season-high 527 total yards. Granted, A&M trailed for roughly 5:00 of game time, but they needed every bit of their volume of yardage (497) to get by, as the hogs got just about whatever they wanted with 268 rushing yards and 259 passing yards. In a game in which neither team turned the ball over, the difference came to red zone execution, which is where the Aggies earned their money, while the hosts settled for a pair of field goals, which was one too many at the end of the fay. Reed closed the afternoon with 335 total yards and four touchdowns, while (Sophomore Tailback) Rueben Owens crossed the goal line twice with 86 yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches. Will this approach prove to be sustainable? What happens when they meet a defense that slow down Reed & Co? We very well may find out tonight in Baton Rouge…
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M may be unbeaten straight-up through seven games, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (3-4), equating to a net loss of 1.27 units. They are currently 2-2 ATS in SEC play, which includes a spread defeat in their latest outing, that aforementioned close call in Fayetteville (-7.5). Since arriving in College Station last Fall, Elko is now 15-5 SU and 6-13 ATS overall, including 2-4 ATS away from Kyle Field, 5-12 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-5 ATS against an adversary harboring revenge, 6-8 ATS following a win, and 5-7 ATS versus their fellow neighbors within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have covered just one of their past five games immediately after scoring 40+ points, while matching that record over their past five meetings with foes residing above .500, with both trends being relevant in tonight’s trip to Baton Rouge. Looking at this matchup, these two schools have split their last eight encounters, with the home side proving victorious on each occasion and have covered six of them along the way. All-time, the Aggies trail the series by a healthy margin (23-36-3), though continued their winning ways in games played at College Station last Fall, overcoming a slow start to blow out the Tigers last October. Indeed, the hosts trailed 17-7 heading into intermission, only to outscore the visitors 31-7 in the second half where Reed absolutely took over. The big fella, who hadn’t become even become the starter yet, scored three straight rushing touchdowns to begin the half, ending the night with 62 rushing yards on nine carries, while completing each of his two passing attempts for 70 yards. This was the game in which Reed earned QB1 over (former teammate) Connor Weigman, though he would go on to win just one of the final five games he started for A&M. Getting back to that triumph at Kyle Field, Elko’s outfit dominated their opponent on the ground, outrushing LSU 242-24, while the defense forced three takeaways, all of which were interceptions of Garrett Nussmeier. (Junior Linebacker) Taurean York led the team with six tackles, one for a loss, and an interception, while (former Defensive Back) B.J. Mayes collected two picks of his own. On the injury front, the Aggies may be without (Senior Tailback) Le’Veon Moss for a second straight week, after he missed last Saturday’s trip to Arkansas with a sprained ankle suffered in the previous week against Florida. Moss has dealt with injuries throughout his tenure in College Station, though remains just off the team lead in rushing yards (389), while pacing the roster in rushing scores (6). Over the course of his collegiate career, he has racked up 186 yards from scrimmage and three scores against the Tigers, including 125 total yards on seventeen touches in last Fall’s 38-23 affair. Looking ahead, Texas A&M will enjoy a bye next week before hitting the road once more time, traveling to Columbia to face off against (No. 15) Missouri.
Meanwhile, as the profile of his counterpart continues to rise, (Head Coach) Brian Kelly is very much on the hot seat at LSU (5-2, 2-2 on SEC), who have lost two of their last three outings following a perfect 4-0 start. Of course, Kelly (pictured below) came into this campaign with plenty of pressure upon his shoulders, for after all, he was expected to turn the Tigers back into national title contenders upon after enjoying so much success at Notre Dame. Indeed, the 2-time AP Coach of the Year went 113-40 during his twelve years in South Bend, taking the Irish to the 2012 National Final and a trip to the Playoff in 2018. However, his tenure in Baton Rouge hasn’t come close to reaching either of those levels for a variety of reasons; sure, he is 34-13 over 3.5 years in charge of the Bayou Bengals, but he has struggled to find the right mix on defense, while the attack continues to be woefully unbalanced. Last season, LSU couldn’t find consistency running the football, averaging just 116.4 yards on the ground on 4.1 yards per carry, filing to establish a true RB1 with an Offensive Line that failed to live up to its billing. It also didn’t help that (Senior Quarterback) Garrett Nussmeier, succeeding (2023 Heisman) Jayden Daniels, was a completely different type of QB, rushing for -38 yards on the year as a much more prototypical pocket passer. Furthermore, the defense wasn’t up to the Tigers’ standard despite showing marginal growth in points allowed (24.3) and total yards relinquished (364.4). Kelly opened up the checkbook in the offseason, adding five new starters to that unit, which appears to be what the doctor ordered; (Defensive Coordinator) Blake Baker has overseen a stellar group that has shipped 14.6 points on just 311.6 total yards, including 189.6 through the air, while logging 36 tackles for loss, 17.0 sacks, and ten takeaways. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been enough in their two defeats in which they’ve yielded a total of 55 points (27.5). That’s a reasonable ledger against the likes of Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, which tells us that the real problem for Kelly is the offense. You may have seen the footage of the perturbed skipper going off on a reporter in a press conference reflecting on their inability to run the ball, but that has once again been the case for these cats; LSU has been even worse in this regard than they were a year ago, churning out a mere 112.9 yards on 4.0 yards per carry, leaving too much of the burden on Nussmeier to carry the attack. For a second consecutive campaign, Nussmeier leads the SEC in passes completed (154) and attempted (332), though he has also been subject to plenty of pressure, leaving him plagued by ankle and knee maladies. This was the case in last weekend’s 31-24 loss to the Commodores, where the offense simply couldn’t find a rhythm. The visitors were outrushed 239-100 and aside from a 62-yard touchdown from Nussmeier to (Mississippi State transfer) Zavion Thomas late in the third quarter, struggled to make meaningful headway in enemy territory. Will this group find their footing as the Aggies come to visit Death Valley? They had better figure it out, quickly, lest Kelly finds himself in the line of fire…
From a betting perspective, LSU are in a similar boat albeit with more blemishes on their CV, posting a 5-2 ledger straight-up in comparison to a 3-4 mark against the spread, equating to a net loss of -1.27 units. They too are coming off a spread defeat, coming up short a small road underdog at Vanderbilt (+1.5) last weekend. Since arriving in Baton Rouge in 2022, Kelly is now 34-13 SU and 22-22 ATS overall, including 15-8 ATS at Tiger Stadium, a 6-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-4 ATS when harboring revenge, 5-4 ATS following a loss, and 14-15 ATS versus their fellow residents within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their last ten games played in the month of October, though are in the midst of a 1-4 run ATS immediately following a SU defeat, while matching that record in their past five meetings with opponents residing above .500. The Tigers are also 3-2 both SU and ATS under his watch as a home dog, which is the rare case that they find themselves in tonight. There is also Kelly’s reputation in these primetime affairs contested at Tiger Stadium, which has been a veritable graveyard for the opposition; the Bayou Bengals are now 17-1 SU in night games at Baton Rouge, including 4-0 in such tilts this Fall. Looking at this particular matchup, LSU has certainly owned the rivalry which started back in 1906 via a 36-23-3 record. However, as we covered earlier, the home teams have reigned supreme in this series of late (4-0 SUATS). This should bode well for the Tigers, who are currently on a streak of seven consecutive covers against the Aggies at home, with a 12-2 ledger over their past fourteen encounters in the bayou. Last Fall’s crossing of paths, that aforementioned 38-23 loss at Kyle Field, really served as a microcosm of their flaws in 2024, with the offense imploding without balance and the defense getting manhandled in the trenches, beginning a slog of three successive losses. Nussmeier carried the attack with 405 passing yards, but did so on 25-of-50 attempts, tossing a pair of early touchdowns, but also falling victim to three interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense was stout early on with just one touchdown relinquished through the first 33:00 minutes of action, but completely crumbled in the second half where they were outscored 31-7. The visitors were relegated to a scant 24 rushing yards on 23 carries, as Nussmeier ironically accounted for their lone rushing score. (Junior Wideout) Aaron Anderson enjoyed being the recipient of all that passing yardage, reeling in 126 receiving yards, though most of it came courtesy of a 76-yard touchdown. On the injury front, all eyes will once again be on (Junior Linebacker) Whit Weeks, who missed last week’s trip to Nashville due to hand and ankle maladies. After leading the Tigers with 61 solo tackles last season, he currently has 29 total stops, 2.5 tackles for loss, and a sack thus far. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t get any easier for LSU, who will be travel to Tuscaloosa to battle (No. 4) Alabama, which will likely make or break their bid to remain in contention within this wide-open SEC.