8:25 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Packers -3.5, Total: 44.5
Two of the most significant franchises in NFL history cross paths in primetime, as the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers clash in this matchup that will serve as one of the most high-profile reunions between a player and their former employers in recent memory. Of course, the Packers (4-1-1, 1st in NFC North) have found themselves on the opposite side of this scenario, as (All-Pro Edge Rusher) Micah Parsons, whom the team acquired via blockbuster trade roughly a week before the season kicked off, returned to Dallas for primetime shootout roughly a month ago. Given that affair ended in a rare tie, we would imagine that (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur will have his troops ready and prepared for this reunion with Aaron Rodgers (much more on him a bit), who served as the face of the franchise from 2008 to 2022. With all due respect, Green Bay has long since moved on from their former QB, turning the page to his successor, Jordan Love and a host of young playmakers on both side of the football, qualifying for the playoffs in each of past two seasons post-AR12. With the addition of Parsons (pictured below), many around the league felt that these Cheeseheads had found the missing piece to become a proper Super Bowl contender, and though the defense has been very good (apart from that affair in Arlington), the offense has yet to truly find its rhythm. This unit ranks seventh in points (26.3) though fourteenth in total yards (357.2), including twelfth in passing (239.7) on an explosive 7.3 net yards per attempt (4th Overall), and fifteenth in rushing (117.5) on a lukewarm 4.0 yards per carry (21st Overall). Again, it’s been a case of good but not great for LaFleur, whose offense seems to be a little overaggressive at times, with Love hunting the big play downfield instead of simply settling for the easier, high-percentage throws. This is evidenced in the statistical dropoff when he has to wait for routes to develop downfield; when Love has fewer than 2.5 seconds within the pocket to release the football, he has completed 78.1% of his throws for 930 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception, but when he has been forced to wait longer than that he has hit on just 54.55% of his passes for 508 yards, two scores and a pick, with his yards per attempt falling from 8.5 to 7.7. Granted, the offense has certainly dealt with its share of injuries, particularly along the Offensive Line and in the Receiving Corps, but you get the sense that there is still something missing on this side of the football that is keeping the Packers from becoming truly great. Thankfully, the defense continues to give them every opportunity to figure it out, as was the case in last weekend’s 27-23 victory over the decimated Cardinals. While this one was a lot closer than most expected, it never quite felt like an upset was brewing, thanks in large part to Parsons, who had himself a day. The 4-time Pro-Bowler led the charge with three sacks, five QB hits, five pressures, and four tackles for loss, while the defense as a whole racked up six sacks, a dozen hits of the passer, and eleven pressures. They also forced the lone turnover of the afternoon, stripping Jacoby Brissett of the football, leading directly to a 7-yard touchdown run courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs. Green Bay was held to just 262 total yards and converted just 3-of-10 third downs, while being flagged ten times for a loss of 94 yards, but played otherwise mistake-free football, which has been the trend this season. Thus far, the Cheeseheads have committed the third-fewest turnovers in the league (3), while ranking first on third down (49.3%) and fifth in the red zone (72.0%).
From a betting perspective, the Packers may come into this fateful reunion at 4-1-1 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread (2-4), where they have failed to cover any of their last four outings, equating to a net loss on the season of 2.18 units. Over the past few seasons, this is a team that has enjoyed a good deal of success SU, though they have certainly developed a reputation of not covering the spread along the way; over their last eighteen contests, there are six games in which that half-stepping has occurred, which is by far and away the most of any team in the NFL during that span. Since arriving in Green Bay back in 2019, LaFleur is 74-39-1 SU and 63-50-1 ATS overall, including 26-25 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 40-38 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 38-32 ATS following a win, and 28-24 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover five consecutive contests following a defeat, five of their past trips away from Eastern Wisconsin, and each of their past four tilts in the month of October, with each trend proving relevant tonight. It should also be noted that the Cheeseheads are in the midst of a 1-11 ATS as a road favorite of three or more points, which includes an 0-3 ledger in such games this Fall. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to primetime, owning a 31-20 record ATS on Sunday nights, including 10-8 ATS as a road favorite, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these legendary franchises have crossed paths on 37 occasions with the Packers clinging to a 20-17 edge in the all-time series. Of course, the most significant of those encounters was fifteen years ago in Super Bowl XLV, which served as the site of the Packers’ fourth and most recent Lombardi Trophy. They have met four times since then (1-3), with the last affair, a 23-19 defeat in Western Pennsylvania coming two years ago. Despite racking up 399 total yards and moving the chains throughout the day (8-of-16 on third down and 2-of-2 on fourth down), the visitors struggled in the red zone where they were forced to settle for a pair of field goals, while the aforementioned Love was intercepted twice in the fourth quarter, both of which came within fourteen yards of the end zone. Speaking of the young QB, he is 8-6-1 SU in primetime, completing 64.5% of his throws for 3,081 yards on 7.42 net yards per attempt, with 22 touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions. As for his CV ATS, he is now a middling 20-20 ATS overall, including 9-12 ATS on the road, 10-12 ATS as a favorite, 13-10 ATS following a win, 6-7 ATS after back-to-back victories, 7-8 ATS when his opponent is coming off a loss, and 15-14 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (2-7 ATS). On the injury front, the defense will be without (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Lukas Van Ness (foot) and (young Defensive Lineman) Devonte Wyatt (knee), while (veteran Wideout) Christian Watson (knee) will have to wait yet another week to make his debut. Furthermore, (Offensive Linemen) Anthony Belton (ankle), Zach Tom (oblique), Aaron Banks (groin), and Jacob Monk (hamstring) are listed as questionable with various maladies, while (veteran Kicker) Brandon McManus has been hampered by lingering soreness in his right quadricep. Looking ahead, the Packers will return to Lambeau next week to host the improving Panthers, before bracing for a visit from the Super Bowl Champions, the Eagles on Monday Night Football, which is a rematch from last January’s postseason affair.
Meanwhile, if there was only a single game that the Steelers (4-2, 1st in AFC North) had circled on their schedule, it would in all likelihood be tonight’s visit from Green Bay, setting up the most high-profile reunion between a QB and his former team since Tom Brady returned to Foxborough as a Buccaneer. Granted, tonight’s showdown won’t be taking place in Lambeau, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be any less emotional for Aaron Rodgers, who enjoyed one helluva run with the Packers. In his 18-year reign of terror in Eastern Wisconsin (15 as the starter), the 4-time MVP went 147-75-1 (.659), throwing for 59,055 yards and 475 touchdowns, while leading the club to eleven playoff appearances, eight division titles, five trips to the NFC Championship Game, and a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLV where he earned the game’s MVP honors. Since departing Lambeau Field, it has been very much a mixed bag for the 41-year-old, who tore his Achilles in the 2023 opener with the Jets, before enduring a disappointing 5-12 finish with Gang Green last Fall. After months of considering retirement, he eventually accepted Pittsburgh’s offer to end his career on a higher note. However, let’s not make the mistake that this isn’t a mutually beneficial relationship for both parties; the Steelers had been utterly dreadful at QB for years now, with the carrousel playing a big role in their current winless streak in the postseason that dates back to 2017. This is an aging team in many areas that has identified an opportunity to go all-in and win now, which is why Rodgers is now plying his trade in Western Pennsylvania. So, how has this marriage gone, you ask? Well, 4-2 has been good enough thus far to create separation within what has been a wide-open AFC, particularly in an NFC North that has been ravaged by injuries. While there have been signs of growth within (Offensive Coordinator) Arthur Smith’s scheme, particularly on the ground game where the run game has found its legs of late, churning out 126.0 yards on 4.9 yards per carry over the last three games, it has been Tomlin’s defense that has caused the most concern. On the season, the Steelers ranks nineteenth in points allowed (23.3) and twenty-eighth in total defense (374.7), shipping the second-most passing yards in the NFL at 258.8 yards per game on 6.0 net yards per play (14th Overall). The biggest issue is that they simply haven’t been able to apply consistent pressure on opposing QBs, who have completed 65.8% of their throws, leading to a conversion rate of 41.9% on third down (25th Overall). Sure, this group has been opportunistic (10 takeaways) and in the red zone where they rank fifth overall (47.8%), but they haven’t really begun to look their age. Case in point: one would have expected them to have had their way with the fading Bengals last Thursday night, particularly with their own ageless QB, Joe Flacco, making his second start in ten days after arriving via trade. Despite running out to an early 10-0 lead, the Steelers were outscored 33-21 the rest of the way, with Flacco revitalizing a dormant attack with no shortage of weaponry, amassing 470 total yards, 27 first downs, and a healthy 7-of-14 on third down. Furthermore, Flacco absolutely torched them for 342 passing yards and three touchdowns on 31-of-47 completions, while the ground game, which had previously been on life support, awakened with 142 rushing yards. Rodgers made this one interesting, hitting (veteran Tight End) Pat Freiermuth for a 68-yard touchdown with just over two minutes left to play, taking a 31-30 lead, but that wouldn’t be enough, as his counterpart led deep into enemy territory, leading to the game-winning field goal.
From a betting perspective, the Steelers are 4-2 straight-up, but they also haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (3-3), with last week’s stunner in Cincinnati snapping a streak of three consecutive covers. Since arriving in Steel City back in 2007, Tomlin is now 195-120-2 SU and 160-146-11 ATS overall, including 84-68 ATS at Acrisure Stadium, 61-38 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 59-47 ATS following a loss, and 98-97 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops are 11-2-1 ATS in their last fourteen outings immediately after scoring 30+ points, 4-1 ATS in their past five games at home against an opponent owning a winning road record, and in the midst of a 4-1 run ATS in the month of October. This is also a team that has rebounded well after a non-cover, posting a 19-8 ledger ATS in such tilts under his watch. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is also no stranger to primetime, owning a 28-30 record ATS on Sunday nights, including 2-2 ATS as a home underdog, which is the rare role that they find themselves in tonight. As we covered earlier, these venerable franchises don’t cross paths very often, with the Steel Curtain trailing 17-20 in the all-time series, but winning three of the past four since coming up short in Super Bowl XLV. Of course, their current QB was playing for the other team on that day, which stands as the crowning achievement in the career of Rodgers; en route to earning Super Bowl MVP honors, Rodgers torched Tomlin’s defense to the tune of 304 yards and three touchdowns on 24-of-39 passing. Granted, the Steelers rallied back from a 21-3 deficit to make it 28-25 late in the fourth quarter, but were unable to get any closer as the Packers stopped them on a 4th-and-5 from their own 33-yard line. Fast forward thirteen years and we come to the most recent encounter between these teams, that aforementioned 23-19 affair from Acrisure which saw the hosts bend without breaking throughout the afternoon. The defense intercepted Love twice and stopped the visitors on fourth down on back-to-back drives to end the game. The ground game was also a major component to their success, rushing for 205 yards and a pair of touchdowns, led by (young Tailback) Jaylen Warren and 101 yards. Getting back to Rodgers, the ageless wonder is 46-32 in primetime, completing 66.9% of his throws for 248.8 yards per game on 7.13 net yards per attempt with 164 touchdowns in comparison to 36 interceptions, rushing for nine more score for good measure. As for his history ATS, he is now 149-112 ATS overall, including 79-48 ATS at home, 39-29 ATS as a dog, 52-33 ATS following a loss, 71-52 ATS versus an adversary coming off a win, and 92-79 ATS against non-division foes. On the injury front, (young Wideout) Calvin Austin (shoulder) and (Special Teams standout) Miles Killebrew (knee) will miss yet another game with various maladies, but the rest of the roster is otherwise one of the healthier groups in the NFL. Looking ahead, the Steelers are in the midst of the most difficult stretch of their schedule, as they get set to host the AFC-leading Colts next weekend, before making the long trip west to battle the Chargers on Sunday Night Football in two weeks’ time.