8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Ravens -7.5, Total: 51.5
A pair of teams that have failed to live up to expectations thus far cross paths in what could very well serve as elimination for one, while creating some valuable momentum for the other, as the Baltimore Ravens meet the Miami Dolphins in this primetime affair on South Beach. On the shortlist for Super Bowl contenders coming into the season, the Ravens (2-5, 3rd in AFC North) were the joint betting favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, but a bevy of injuries and a string of maddeningly inconsistent performances have seen them get off to their worst start since 2015. Indeed, it really is stunning that a team with arguably one of the most formidable rosters in the NFL could stumble out the gates in such a manner, but that is precisely what has happened to Baltimore. So, what in the name of Ray Lewis has happened to these Blackbirds, you ask? Well, we hinted as the injury bug, which has run through this group like a plague, sidelining a plethora of key personnel, at one point featuring roughly $160 million worth of salary out of action. (2-time MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson, (Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Roquan Smith, (veteran Left Tackle) Ronnie Stanley, (All-Pro Safety) Kyle Hamilton, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marlon Humphrey, and (veteran Cornerback) Jaire Alexander has all missed multiple games during this poor start. Of course, Jackson (pictured below) has been the most notable absence, missing the past three games due to a strained hamstring suffered early in a 37-20 loss at the Chiefs. He really needs no introduction, but this is the premier dual-threat in the NFL, folks, with this otherwise high-powered offense relegated to just 14.3 points per game on 286.0 total yards without him. Furthermore, the defense was struggling prior to the injuries hit, shipping 30.0 points (30th Overall) on 379.5 total yards (28th Overall), while netting just four takeaways along the way (30th Overall). Granted, this unit stumbled early last Fall under (new Defensive Coordinator) Nate Orr, eventually rounding into shape over the second half of the campaign, but their inability to generate many big plays while collapsing late in games has left the faithful in Charm City calling for the head of not only Orr, but (longtime Head Coach) John Harbaugh as well. With all that being said, it should be noted that the Ravens have faced a hellacious schedule thus far, facing FIVE division winners who currently have a combined record of 23-13 (.638), losing each matchup to boot. Thankfully, help is on the way as Jackson is expected to return tonight, meaning that Baltimore is close to returning to full strength with an opportunity to salvage this uncharacteristically poor run of form; the upcoming schedule certainly breaks in their favor, with a cumulative win percentage of just .342, with the only team featuring a winning record being (bitter rivals) Pittsburgh. There is a real argument to be made that they could be sitting at 7-7 or even 8-6 by the time mid-December arrives, which would position them for a seventh postseason appearance in eight years. Why such optimism, you ask? Harbaugh’s troops put together their most impressive showing of the season thus far last weekend in a 30-16 victory over the surging Bears, who came into M&T Bank Stadium as winners of four consecutive contests. With Jackson once more (which was a saga unto itself), the hosts rallied behind (third-string QB) Tyler Huntley, a punishing ground game led by (2-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry, and a defense that stiffened in the red zone forcing Chicago to settle for three short field goals and stopped the visiting side once on late fourth down attempt. This was a significant day int he illustrious career of Henry, who passed the legendary Walter Payton for fifth on the all-time rushing list (11,933 yards), with 71 yards and two scores against Sweetness’ former franchise.
, From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Ravens thus far, who have covered the spread in each of their two victories and have failed to do so in any of their losses, equating to a net loss of 3.18 units. This really is a stark shift for a team that has been one of the most rewarding sides in the NFL over the previous two seasons in which they posted a 23-14-1 ledger ATS. Since arriving in Charm City back in 2008, Harbaugh is now 187-120 SU and 159-135-13 ATS overall, including 86-53 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium, 101-97 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 95-82 ATS following a win, and 105-85 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered just one of seven games versus an adversary fresh of a win as a road underdog, which is the case they find themselves in tonight. Dating back to their inception in 1996, this is a franchise that is 9-11 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 1-1 ATS as a road favorite, while in the midst of a 1-5 run ATS when coming off a double-digit victory, which is also the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Blackbirds lead the all-time series against the Dolphins 11-8, covering TEN of the last twelve meetings with a 5-1 record ATS in Miami. When they last crossed paths in 2023, it was about as one-sided an encounter that you will find as Jackson & Co utterly annihilated the Fins in a 56-19 blowout. After a relatively slow start in which they trailed 10-7 heading into the second quarter, the hosts put their foot on the gas via a 21-3 run to take a 28-13 advantage into intermission. From there, Harbaugh’s troops wouldn’t let up, scoring four more touchdowns to clinch the top overall seed in the AFC. When it was all said and done, the Ravens outgained the visitors 491-375 in total yards, while converting 4-of-7 third downs, which should give you an idea as to how easily they moved the chains. Jackson, who would claim his second career MVP award about a month later, was nothing short of dominant with 321 passing yards and five touchdowns on an efficient 18-of-21 throws, while rushing for another thirty-five yards on six carries. (Third-year Wideout) Zay Flowers was the recipient of much of that yardage, reeling in three receptions for 106 yards and a 75-yard touchdown. Defensively, Baltimore wreaked havoc with three takeaways and sacks, led by the aforementioned Smith, whose interception late in the second period helped swing the momentum in favor of the home side. Getting back to Jackson, he has relished the opportunity to face his hometown team, with the Pompano Beach native splitting his four career meetings with the Dolphins, averaging a healthy 350.1 total yards with fifteen touchdowns in comparison to committing only a single turnover. Unsurprisingly, he has handled himself quite well in these midweek affairs as well, owning a 4-3 CV with fifteen passing touchdowns and one interception. As far as his ledger ATS, Jackson is now 55-46 ATS overall, including 32-18 ATS on the road, 42-43 ATS as a favorite, 43-37 ATS following a win, 32-26 ATS against an opponent coming off a win, and 40-32 ATS non-division foes. On the injury front, Jackson has been cleared to return from that hamstring strain that has sidelined him for the past month, while many other players that had been swept up during this injury crisis have returned as well, with the only starter in question being the aforementioned Stanley is was limited throughout the short week of practice with a tender ankle. Looking ahead, the Ravens could very well make a meal of this stretch of their schedule as they remain on the road for the next two weeks against the Vikings and Browns, before returning to M&T for a visit from the lowly Jets.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins (2-6, 3rd in AFC East) aren’t mathematically out of anything quite yet, but man it is getting late rather early on South Beach. This is a team that came into this season very much at something of a crossroads; management parted ways with several high-profile veteran players, with both sides of the football littered with question marks, none more so than the long-term viability of their franchise Quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. Of course, Tua (pictured below) has enjoyed his share of success in Miami, but a series of concussions have threatened to shorten his once promising career, costing him NINE games last Fall. With that in mind and the hefty financial investment that the Fins have made in his services, (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel has been forced to completely alter the approach of the offense, largely abandoning the dangerous vertical passing attack that put them on the map three years ago in favor of a quick, short-passing game designed to get the ball out of his QB’s hands in an attempt to keep him from harm and prolong his availability. The problem is that this shift really does run counter to their personnel, particularly the Receiving Corps led by (5-time All-Pro Wideout) Tyreek Hill, who is facing a career-threatening injury after dislocating his knee a month ago. As a result, the offense has mustered just 21.8 points (21st Overall) on 286.3 total yards (28th Overall), including 201.4 yards through the air (26th Overall) on 5.63 net yards per attempt (24th Overall), with fifteen touchdowns (7th Overall) opposed to ten interceptions (31st Overall). The numbers tell the story, folks, as Tagovailoa has seen his net yards per attempt decrease precipitously over the past few seasons, leading the league in that particular category in 2022 (8.04), to averaging 7.56, 6.46, and now 5.79 in the subsequent years since. Couple that with the fact that he holds the joint lead in interceptions thrown (10), and you have a growing mob of fans down in South Florida that are calling for the jobs of not just McDaniel, but (General Manager) Chris Grier, who has made a slew of questionable decisions in terms of building this roster, particularly in terms of allocating so much money to Tua and Hill. With all that being said, just when you thought that the Dolphins were down for the count after a listless 31-6 loss at the lowly Browns, they proved that they still have some fight in a one-sided 34-10 victory at the Falcons last weekend. Miami dominated this one from start to finish, outgaining the hosts 335-213 in total yards, outrushing them 141-41, and racking up 24 first downs opposed to conceding eleven to their adversary. (Defensive Coordinator) Anthony Weaver’s unit met the challenge of facing the league’s leading rusher, Bijan Robinson, relegating the Pro-Bowler to a scant 25 yards and a fumble on nine carries, while forcing the game’s lone turnover and stopping the Atlanta twice on fourth down. As for Tua, he was surgical in completing 20-of-26 throws for 205 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, connecting with (veteran Receiver) Jaylen Waddle five times for 99 yards and a 43-yard score late in the third quarter to break the game wide-open.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins may be drowning at 2-6 straight-up, but they have been a more rewarding side against the spread (4-4), parlaying to a net loss of 0.36 units. We’ll see if they can repeat their success in this regard from last week, in which they upset the Falcons outright as 7.0-point underdog, which is a comparable spread to that of tonight’s contest. Since arriving on South Beach in 2022, McDaniel is now 30-31 SU and 30-30-1 ATS overall, including 15-12 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium, 12-15 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 15-14 ATS following a win, and 16-22 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops are 9-2 ATS in their past eleven games after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards and 4-1 ATS at home versus an opponent with a losing road record. Miami is also in the midst of an 11-1 run ATS at home after immediately shipping ten or less points, which is the case tonight. However, they have failed to cover four of their last five outings following a victory, three of their past four tilts after a cover, and are 1-4 ATS in five encounters with sub-.500 adversaries. For what it is worth, they are also 1-6 ATS in five games prior to a division showdown with the Bills, whom they face next weekend. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 10-12 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 2-0 ATS as a home dog, while the SU winner of these midweek clashes has covered ELEVEN of twelve such outings. As we covered earlier, the Fins trail the all-time series with the Ravens 8-11, with a streak of back-to-back victories snapped in that aforementioned 56-19 affair from two years ago. There was some confidence that Tua & Co would be able to get the better of Baltimore’s defense after having shredded them 469 passing yards in a 42-38 shootout a year earlier, but that simply would not be the case in this one, folks. Miami started strong enough ten points via their first two drives of the afternoon, though it would all be downhill from there as the offense could not keep pace with their counterparts, compiling 375 total yards yet still ended up outgained by 116. Three turnovers and a pair of failures on fourth down disrupted any rhythm that the visitors may have had, as Tagovailoa ended the game with 237 yards on 22-of-38 passing with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece, suffering three sacks and seven pressures along the way. Achane was solid in piling up 137 yards from scrimmage and a receiving score, but Hill was kept largely in check with six catches on a dozen targets for 75 yards. Getting back to Tua, the Samoan Sniper is 2-1 all-time against the Ravens, completing 65.3% of his throws for an average of 288.0 yards on a healthy 8.25 net yards per attempt, nine total touchdowns and four turnovers. However, the former Pro-Bowler has struggled on Thursday nights, winning just one of five starts, tossing as many interceptions as touchdowns (5). As for his career ledger ATS, he is now 36-33 ATS overall, including 23-13 ATS at home, 17-15 ATS as a dog, 22-19 ATS following a win, 20-15 ATS versus an opponent coming off a loss, and 23-24 ATS against non-division foes, with by far and away his most rewarding role coming as… you guessed it, a home dog (8-3 ATS). On the injury front, McDaniel is still without many healthy bodies in a ravaged Secondary featuring FIVE different Defensive Backs on Injured Reserve, but there is some good news on the pass-rushing front, as (veteran Edge) Bradley Chubb is expected to play tonight after exiting the previous outing due to an ailing shoulder. The 29-year-old leads Miami with four sacks and has played in every game after missing all of last season recovering from a torn ACL. Looking ahead, it isn’t going to get any easier for the Dolphins, as they host the division-leading Bills next weekend before traveling across the pond to Madrid to face off against the Commanders in yet another edition to the league’s international series.