7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 – Spread: Memphis -14, Total: 49.5
Friday night lights take us back to the American Athletic Conference, where the (No. 25) Memphis Tigers are making a push to secure their first conference title since 2019, while the Rice Owls are simply in the midst of the beginning of a what they hope will become a successful new era. Oh, what a time it is to be alive in Memphis (7-1 3-1 in AAC), where the football program is currently in the midst of what can only be described as something of a golden era for this Group of 5 team. Sure, they’ve made some noise in the past, logging three 10-win campaigns between 2014 and 2019, peaking at 12-2 six years ago, but what they’re doing under the direction of (Head Coach) Ryan Silverfield has been unprecedented for a school that has been accustomed to sustaining such play over the course of multiple seasons. With a minimum of four games left on their schedule, these cats have a very real chance of stacking three consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time in school history. Dating back to 2023, the Tigers are a stellar 28-6 overall and 15-5 in conference play, which includes this Fall’s torrid 7-1 start that has the folks on campus thinking bigger than winning the AAC, but earning a spot in the 2025 CFP Playoff. Making this run all the more remarkable is that fact this this particular group is defying expectations; with just nine returning starters, including uncertainty at Quarterback, Memphis was predicted by many to take a step backward, but that simply hasn’t been the case as Silverfield made the most of the Transfer Portal. Rather than turn the reins of the offense over to (4-Star Recruit) Arrington Maiden, Silverfield decided to roll the dice on (Nevada transfer) Brendon Lewis, a sixth-year senior with plenty of experience. Seriously, folks, this guy has been around so long he was at Colorado before Coach Prime showed up in Boulder, spending three seasons biding his time before eventually moving to the desert where he spent two years leading the Wolfpack. All in all, Lewis (pictured below) featured in 39 games during that span, starting all twelve at Nevada last Fall, making him a seamless fit for Silverfield’s attack. With eight games in the books, the vet has completed 67.8% of his throws for 1,644 yards on 7.9 yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 475 yards and seven more scores. For further proof of how important he is to the offense, consider this: in the Tigers’ lone defeat, a 31-24 stunner against a UAB side that just fired their HC, Lewis was forced off the field of play due to a lower body malady, with the attack held to season-lows in both total yards (316) and rushing yardage (119). However, he made his grand return a week later in a 34-31 upset of (No. 18) USF, which featured a 28-10 rally over the final 34:00 minutes of action, including a 17-0 fourth quarter. Lewis would get the comeback started with a short touchdown toss to cut the deficit to seven points just before intermission, before throwing one more to take the lead with 1:07 left in the game, followed by a rushing 2-point conversion. When it was all said and done, the hosts were outgained 564-450 in total yards, but held managed to force the Bulls to settle for one too many field goals, while also generating the lone takeaway of the day, an interception courtesy of (Junior Linebacker) Everett Roussaw on the opening drive. Lewis finished with 342 total yards, completing 27-of-44 throws for 307 yards and a pair of scores, both of which were hauled in by (Senior Wideout) Cortez Braham.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with Memphis, who have covered the spread in each of their seven victories thus far, while failing to do so in their lone defeat. Last weekend’s upset over USF (+3.5) marked just the second time that these cats have been underdogs this Fall, making it a perfect 2-0 when receiving points. During his 6+ years leading the program, Silverfield is now 49-21 SU and 29-32-4 ATS, including 12-17 ATS away from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, 18-22 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 10-19 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 18-23 ATS following a win, and 18-25 ATS against the American Athletic Conference. Furthermore, his troops have been on a tear for a while now, covering ten of their last twelve outings overall (10-1-1 ATS) and are 8-1 ATS over their past nine games immediately following a SU victory. On the other hand, these Friday night clashes have been something of a bugaboo for the Tigers, who 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven such contests. They were also in the midst of a 1-11 run ATS when coming off a SUATS win and facing an opponent with a win percentage north of .400, but are 3-0 in such matchups this season, while reversing a similar trend on the road against adversaries coming off a win (2-10 ATS, 1-0 ATS this season). Looking at this particular matchup, these schools have met on the gridiron just five times, with the Blue Bengals clinging to a narrow 3-2 lead in the all-time series, with last year’s encounter, a 27-20 affair from last November. Silverfield’s side started slowly in this one, folks, falling behind 6-0 before eventually breaching the end zone late in the second half, but from that point it was all Tigers, who outscored the visitors 27-14 the rest of the way. Despite the tilt being largely level in total yards (367-366 in favor of Rice), Memphis controlled the tempo via their ground game, rushing for 207 yards on 42 carries, led by (former Tailback) Mario Anderson’s 144 yards and a touchdown on 25 attempts. (Former Defensive Back) Davion Ross also made quite an impact with a team-high nine tackles, three defended passes, and a forced fumble which led to the host’s lone takeaway of the night. On the injury front, this is a rather healthy unit, particularly with the aforementioned Lewis returning to play hero in that upset of the Bulls after exiting the previous game, their lone loss of the season, early on. Looking ahead, Memphis will return to Liberty Stadium to host Tulane next weekend in a crucial AAC matchup that could see them vault the Green Wave in the standings. When they met last Fall in New Orleans, the Tigers put a beating on them in a 34-24 affair, owning a sizable advantage on the ground (236-57) and in the takeaway department (+3).
Meanwhile, as their opponent is reaching for the stars, Rice (4-4, 1-3 in AAC) is embarking on a brand-new venture under the direction of (Head Coach) Scott Abell, who is in the midst of his first season leading a program in the FBS. Indeed, we would forgive you for not being familiar with the 55-year-old, who has taken something of an abstract path to get to this level of coaching. Abell (pictured below) did not play football collegiately or professionally, having enjoyed a minor league baseball career as a catcher and third baseman as a member of the Kansas City Royals’ farm system. Interestingly, he pivoted to coaching high school football, before rising through the ranks at the Division III level to take over Washington & Lee, a small college located in Virginia, followed by a 7-year stint at Davidson (FCS), leading each program to that subdivision’s playoffs. Now in the FBS, Abell is charged with the task of turning around the Owls, who have not registered a winning campaign since 2014, owning a 35-80 ledger over the previous ten years, including 10-15 in their first two seasons within the American Athletic. Furthermore, the deck has been stacked against these birds, who are one of just seventeen teams in the FBS to return seven or less starters, which means that Abell has been forced to really navigate the Transfer Portal in an attempt to rebuild the roster, while also paying plenty of attention to recruiting. In regard to the former, Rice added (Kansas transfer) Carson Morgan, (Cincinnati transfer) Aaron Turner, and (Wisconsin transfer) Max Lofy to name just a few, bringing some sorely needed experience to both sides of the football. So, with all that in mind, how has the rebuild progressed, you ask? Well, it really has been a tale of two seasons for Abdell and the Owls, who got off to an inspiring 3-1 start, making him the first HC in school history to do so in his first year on the job. However, this stretch came largely against a soft schedule, with their three victories coming against the likes of Louisiana (14-12), Prairie View A&M (38-17), and Charlotte (28-17), while their lone defeat came in the annual Bayou Bucket rivalry against (No. 22) Houston (9-35). Since then, they are 1-3, due in large part to an offense that simply hasn’t found their footing quite yet. On the season, Rice has averaged just 21.6 points (110th in FBS) on 329.6 total yards, which is a notion that has only been heightened in their four losses (14.0 points, 270.3 yards). This has been a largely run-heavy group, churning out 226.0 yards on an industrious 50.9 attempts per contest, with four different players rushing for 100+ yards thus far. Abell isn’t putting the ball in the air very often, folks, with his charges attempting a scant 16.5 throws per game, resulting in just 103.6 yards, which has helped keep the turnover total at a cautious four. With all that being said, Rice did author what was arguably their most impressive offensive performance in last weekend’s 37-34 shootout victory over Connecticut, an entertaining affair that required two overtimes to crown a victor. Snapping a 3-game losing skid, the birds forced OT early in the fourth quarter as (Freshman Tailback) D’Andre Hardemann drew level with a 10-yard score. From there, the two sides traded rushing touchdowns, setting up the second and final OT, where the hosts forced a field goal attempt and took the resulting possession into the end zone for the win. When it was all said and done, the Owls erupted for 491 total yards, including 300 on the ground, while (Sophomore QB) Chase Jenkins threw for a season-high 191 yards on an efficient 17-of-22 passing. While that may or may not be a sign of things to come, this one was still all about the ground game, which averaged 5.35 yards per attempt on 56 carries, led by (Senior Tailback) Quinton Jackson, who dismantled the Huskies with 248 yards from scrimmage on 24 touches, scoring four touchdowns, including a pair from 70+ yards along with the 23-yarder walk-off.
From a betting perspective, Rice is 4-4 both straight-up and against the spread, even though each ledger doesn’t align perfectly with the other. The Owls bested Prairie View A&M during their surprising start, but failed to cover the spread (-29.5), while giving Navy a close call in a 21-13 defeat (+14). In his first year in Houston, Abell is now 1-3 ATS at Rice Stadium, 3-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 1-1 ATS following a win, and 2-2 ATS versus all opposition residing within the AAC. Furthermore, these birds are 2-6-1 ATS over their past nine games following a cover, have covered just three of their last ten outings immediately after rushing for 200+ yards in the previous game, and are 2-7 ATS when at home and coming off a performance in which they scored more than ten points. With that being said, they have handled themselves well in these weekday clashes of late (5-0-2 ATS), particularly on Friday nights in which they are 2-0-2 ATS in four such tilts. As we covered earlier, the all-time series between these programs is rather short, with Rice trailing Memphis 2-3 SU, including last year’s 27-20 affair at Liberty Stadium. The visitors certainly made this one interesting early on, holding the Tigers scoreless until midway through the second quarter, before eventually falling apart after halftime. It was a spirited effort, though one that saw the Owls done in by their inability to finish drives in the red zone, where they settled for a pair of fields of fewer than 30 yards in the opening frame of play. Needless to say, they could have put their foes under serious pressure had they opened up with a 14-0 lead rather than an 6-0 advantage. (Former QB) E.J. Warner hit on 29-of-45 passes for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while the aforementioned Jackson rushed for 70 yards on just six carries, with (former Cornerback) Sean Fresch logging a pair of defended passes and an interception. On the injury front, Abell has some concerns on the offensive side of the ball, particularly in the form of Jackson, who is listed as questionable for tonight’s showdown with an undisclosed malady. Needless to say, this is fairly significant, for this is the team’s leading rusher that we are talking about, averaging 81.9 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry with six touchdowns to boot, which also leads the Owls. Looking ahead, Rice will remain in Houston for yet another week, hosting UAB in what should be a winnable contest before closing out the schedule against North Texas and USF, who field two of the most prolific offenses in the AAC.