12:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas -1.5, Total: 45.5
In a shocking twist, the SEC continues to be the conference that just keeps on giving with yet another top-25 showdown, this one coming from Austin where the (No. 20) Texas Longhorns welcome the surging (No. 9) Vanderbilt Commodores, with both sides looking to make a late push for the spot in the CFP Playoff. Unless you have been living under rock, then you probably are familiar with what has been going on at Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 in SEC) this Fall, where the football program is in the midst of a legitimate renaissance. Now in his fifth season in Nashville, (Head Coach) Clark Lea is leading the charge for Coach of the Year honors as he has the Commodores reaching for the stars with their highest AP ranking since 1927. This was a program that was in shambles when he returned to his alma mater, only to make a serious leap from 2023 to 2024 where they went from 2-10 to 7-6, which was their best finish since 2013. Indeed, there were signs of something special last Fall, particularly in a seismic 40-35 upset of top-ranked Alabama, which served as portent of things to come. This season, Vandy is one of the most experienced outfits in the FBS, returning a whopping nineteen starters, including ten on a defense that has been one of the best in the SEC; Lea’s charges have shipped just 18.8 points per game (24th in FBS) on 322.6 total yards, including 101.9 yards against the run on 3.5 yards per carry, while wreaking havoc in the trenches with 54.0 tackles for loss, 21.0 sacks, and eleven takeaways. However, anyone who has watched this team play understands that Vanderbilt thrives and cries on the arm (and legs) of (Senior Quarterback) Diego Pavia, who just might be the most watchable player in the country thus far. Since transferring from New Mexico State two years ago, Pavia (pictured below) has been the very definition of a gamer, playing much larger than his 6’0″, 207-pound frame would suggest; after accounting for 3,094 total yards and 28 touchdowns in 2024, he is making a Heisman case for himself with improved figures across the board, completing a career-high 68.8% of his throws for 1,698 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt, and fifteen touchdowns, while rushing for another 458 yards and five more scores. While there is definitely a concern that the Commodores may rely a little too much on his talents, his unique style of play in undeniably the biggest recipe for their success. Case in point: after suffering their lone loss of the campaign, a 30-14 affair at (No. 10) Alabama, he bounced back in style in leading his team to a 31-24 victory over (No. 10) LSU, amassing 246 total yards and three touchdowns, including two on the ground against one of the toughest defenses in the country. Rather than let another major upset get to their heads, Vandy kept it rolling in dogfight versus (No. 15) Missouri, a 17-10 affair in which neither team looked capable of pulling away from the other. With only a pair of field goals to show for themselves, it wouldn’t be until late in the third quarter before each team really started making some plays; the hosts struck first with an 80-yard touchdown run from another New Mexico State transfer, (Junior Tailback) Makhilyn Young, before the Tigers answered with a touchdown of their own on the ensuing possession, leaving the game tied 10-10 until the waning stages of the contest. After (Sophomore Safety) C.J. Heard forced and recovered a fumble at midfield, Pavia went on to engineer a 9-play, 44-yard drive that bled 5:10 off the clock, rushing for the go-ahead touchdown at the 1-yard line. When it was all said and done, Mizzou outgained the home side 376-265 in total yards, but were certainly the more unfortunate of the two teams, missing a 29-yard field goal after being stopped at the goal line on fourth down, while also losing their starting QB, Beau Pribula to injury midway through the afternoon. As for Pavia, he had a tough day at the office, with just 129 yards and an interception on 10-of-19 passes and another 20 yards on the ground, but his execution on that final drive was enough to get the job done.
From a betting perspective, Vanderbilt may be 7-1 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as strong against the spread (6-2 ATS), splitting their past four outings in that latter regard. This has been something of a spread darling over the past two seasons, posting a 14-6 ledger ATS, including 7-1 ATS as a road underdog, which is precisely the hat they are wearing in today’s trip to Austin. Since returning to his alma mater in 2021, Lea is now 23-34 SU and 27-26 ATS overall, including 15-10 ATS away from Nashville, 22-20 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 18-13 ATS when harboring revenge (4-0 ATS this season), 7-11 ATS following a win, and 19-17 ATS versus all opposition residing within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have covered four consecutive contests after accumulating fewer than 170 passing yards in the previous game, are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road ventures, and are 5-1 ATS over their last six tilts played on field turf. The Commodores are also 2-7 ATS as dogs of fewer than 17 points and facing an adversary with a win percentage of .750 or better, which is once again the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, Vandy leads the all-time series between these schools 7-3-1 SU, though last year’s 27-24 thriller at FirstBank Stadium served as their first meeting since 1928. Pavia & Co fell behind 21-7 late in the first half though managed to rally after intermission drawing within three points as the QB found (All-SEC Tight End) Eli Stowers for an 8-yard score with just 46 seconds remaining in regulation. Unfortunately, the ensuing onside kick would be unsuccessful, as the visitors hosts came oh so close to capturing their second upset of a top-5 opponent in four weeks. This was a sloppy performance for Lea’s charges, who were outgained handedly in total yards (392-269) and committed three turnovers, though clawed their way back into it via a pair of takeaways and a balanced approach that remained committed to the run (114 yards). It was a mixed bag for Pavia, who threw for 143 yards with two touchdowns and interceptions apiece on 16-of-29 attempts, while rushing for another 67 yards and one more score. Defensively, (Junior Linebacker) Randon Fontenette was impressive with eight tackles, 2.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks, and three deflected passes, while (Senior Defensive End) Miles Capers and (Junior Defensive Back) Martel Hight each had an interception. On the injury front, the Commodores are largely healthy coming into this trip to the Lone Star State. Looking ahead, Vanderbilt return to Nashville next weekend to play host to Auburn followed by a visit from Kentucky before closing out the regular season at bitter rivals, (No. 14) Tennessee, whom they have lost seven consecutive encounters to.
Meanwhile, as their opponent continues to soak up the adoration of the national media, Texas (6-2, 3-1 in SEC) finds themselves mired within a campaign in which they have been weighed down by massive expectations. They may be 6-2, but it sure does feel like the Longhorns are a lot worse than that, folks, as the atmosphere in Austin has been murky to say the least. However, allow us to take a moment to simply call this for what it is: after reaching the National Semifinals in each of the previous two seasons and earning top-billing in the AP Preseason Poll, this is a team that is dealing with the effects of a serious talent drain with a whopping 23 picks in the past two NFL Drafts (10 in the first two rounds), while trying to build an identity on an offense consisting of just three returning starters. Furthermore, apart from a season-opening 14-7 loss at (No. 3) Ohio State and a 23-6 win over bitter rival (No. 6) Oklahoma, the schedule hasn’t been overly difficult for the Horns, with the rest of their opponents owning a dismal record of 13-30 (.302), the last two of which needed overtime to crown a victor. Getting back to that offense, pundits expected much more out of a unit essentially coordinated by (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian and quarterbacked by the most hyped recruit in recent memory, (Sophomore QB) Arch Manning. Sure, Sark has proven to be an elite playcaller and Manning (pictured below) has ridiculous potential, but the whole has yet to be greater than total of its parts; Texas has averaged an underwhelming 29.0 points per game (69th in FBS) on 375.6 total yards, including a lukewarm 139.8 yards on the ground on 3.9 yards per carry. As for Manning, he looks very much like a young QB trying to find a rhythm in the face of overwhelming expectations, completing 60.9% of his passes for 1,795 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, while rushing for another 199 yards and six more scores. Again, there were a lot of folks that expected him to be as good as his uncles were right away, but the reality is that he just isn’t at that level… yet. Thankfully, the defense has been as advertised in Austin, giving their cohorts on the opposite side of the football plenty of time to get their act together, relegating opponents to 14.6 points (10th in FBS) on 299.9 total yards, including a mere 80.8 versus the run on 2.4 yards per rush, while wreaking havoc 52.0 tackles for loss, 28.0 sacks, and fourteen takeaways. With that being said, (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit were not at their best in last weekend’s narrow 45-38 comeback at Mississippi State, which saw the Longhorns get torched for a season-high 382 passing yards and FIVE touchdowns. Trailing 31-14 heading into the fourth quarter, the two sides traded touchdowns before Manning hit (Stanford transfer) for a 21-yard touchdown, sparking a desperate 17-0 run, culminating in a 79-yard punt return to the house courtesy of (Sophomore Wideout) Ryan Niblett, pushing the affair to OT. However, Manning would suffer a concussion on a 13-yard run on the first play of the extra period, leaving (Troy transfer) Matthew Caldwell to fill the void the rest of the way, which he did admirably with a 10-yard strike to Mosley. From there, the defense sealed the deal as (Senior Defensive End) Ethan Burke strip-sacked Blake Shapen on fourth-and-20 to end the game. When it was all said and done, the visitors were outgained 445-428 in total yards, though Niblett’s touchdown return leveled the playing field, while Manning utterly carried the attack, with 346 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another score to boot, but was sacked five times and hit on countless other plays. (Sophomore Receiver) Ryan Wingo was the recipient of five catches for 184 yards, while (Junior Linebacker) Anthony Hill (2.5 sacks) led a defensive unit that compiled seven sacks and nine tackles for loss.
From a betting perspective, Texas may be 6-2 straight-up, but they have been one of the least-rewarding Group of 4 teams in the country against the spread (2-6), resulting in a net loss of 4.18 units. It really hasn’t mattered whether they’ve been underdogs, sizable favorites, or favored by a more moderate spread such as last weekend’s comeback in Starkville (-7.5), this just seems to be a team that remains bait for gullible bettors. Since arriving in Austin back in 2021, Sarkisian is now 44-19 SU and 30-32-1 ATS overall, including 18-11 ATS at Darryl K Royal Stadium, 28-26 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 10-11 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge (including 1-3 this season), 20-21 ATS following a win, and 18-22 ATS against conference opposition, be it the SEC or BIG XII. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover all but one of their last seven outings against an opponent coming off back-to-back victories, are 1-7 ATS over their past eight games immediately following a SU win, and in the midst of a 1-6 run ATS after relegating an adversary below 100 rushing yards, with each of those trends proving relevant this afternoon. With that being said, it is worth nothing that Sark is 17-4 ATS in games after his team ships 36+ points, which is what happened at Mississippi State last Saturday. The Longhorns are 10-1 ATS when favored by less than eighteen points and coming off a non-cover and set to face a sub-.500 opponent but are a dreadful 3-13 ATS when favored by fewer than seventeen points against SEC competition. As we covered earlier, Texas trails the all-time series between these schools (3-7-1 SU) with the bulk of that history coming prior to World War II. However, they did avoid suffering a major upset in their trip to Nashville last Fall, with that aforementioned 27-24 victory coming despite a litany of self-inflicted wounds. Perhaps the Horns simply took their foot off the gas after building 21-7 lead, for it was clearly evident that their focus waned as the game progressed, as the visitors committed a pair of turnovers to allow Vanderbilt to get back into the game, while also being flagged ten times for a loss of 107 yards in penalties. (Former QB) Quinn Ewers threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns, but was also intercepted twice, while Manning did not see any action as the primary backup. On the injury front, all eyes are on Manning, who left the win over the Bulldogs with a concussion and will be closely monitored throughout the week prior to this afternoon’s showdown in Austin. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t get any easier for Texas as they head to Athens for a battel with (No. 5) Georgia in two weeks’ time, who bested them in each of their two encounters from last Fall. The first, a 30-15 beatdown at DKR and the second being a 22-19 OT affair in the SEC Championship Game.