4:25 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Chiefs -2.5, Total: 52.5
On the NFL’s best rivalries adds another chapter this evening from Orchard Park, as the surging Kansas City Chiefs look to continue rolling as the cross paths yet again with the Buffalo Bills, who have payback on their minds after suffering yet another heartbreaking postseason defeat. Don’t look now, folks, but the Chiefs (5-3, 3rd in AFC West) are officially back, winning five of their last six outings following a disappointing 0-2 start. After employing a largely measured and methodical approach on offense, Kansas City appears to be back to their high-powered ways, scoring no fewer than 28 points in each of their last five outings, averaging a robust 30.8 points on 415.8 total yards, including 278.2 yards through the air and another 137.6 yards on the ground, all the while converting a healthy 45.7% third downs and enjoying a +2 turnover differential along the way. (Head Coach) Andy Reid has expressed his desire to reignite the vertical passing game for a few years now and they are doing just that now that they have returned to full strength in the Receiving Corps, which should be frightening for an AFC that has lacked a legitimate contender thus far. (2-time MVP Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes has no shortage of weapons at his disposal, with a triumvirate of vertical threats such as Xavier Worthy (233 yards, 1 TD), Marquise Brown (316 yards, 4 TD), and Tyquan Thornton (311 yards, 3 TD), dragging coverage downfield so that the likes of Rashee Rice (135 yards, 3 TD), JuJu Smith-Schuster (289 yards, 1 TD), and Travis Kelce (474 yards, 3 TD) can chew up intermediate routes. As a result, the attack has adopted an Everybody Eats approach with Mahomes (pictured below) reaping the rewards; the 30-year-old leads the league with seventeen touchdown passes, tossing three in each of the past three games, while logging 6.80 net yards per attempt, which easily clears the figures produced over the previous two campaigns, which is yet another sign that he slinging it downfield more frequently than before. Furthermore, the ground game has stabilized as well after relying upon him to create from scratch early on. Through five weeks, Mahomes actually led the team in rushing yards, but with opposing defenses giving priority to trying to slow down the passing game, the Backfield has been given far more space to operate. A platoon of Tailbacks consisting of Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Brashard Smith each bring something different to the table, collectively ranking ninth in rushing yards (126.5), twelfth in yards per carry (4.5), and tenth in touchdowns (9). All of this was evident in last Monday night’s 28-7 drubbing of the shorthanded Commanders, which was even more one-sided that that final score would lead you to believe. The Chiefs outgained the visitors 432-260 in total yards, 26-14 in first downs, 148-60 in rushing yards, and possessed the football for a commanding (pun intended) 34:03 of game time. This could have been a lot uglier had Mahome not been intercepted on each of his first two drives, though those setbacks were little more than blips on the radar for an attack that faced just ten third downs on the night. In the end, the 3-time Super Bowl MVP hit on 25-of-34 throws for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while continuing to make plays with his legs adding another 30 rushing yards to his ledger. Rice, in his second game back after serving a 6-game suspension for a litany of off-field issues, hauled in all nine of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, while Kelce reeled in six catches for 99 yards and a score of his own. Defensively, Kansas City really took advantage of all if the absences of their adversary, ensnaring two interceptions of their own and stopping Washington twice on fourth down in the first half.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Chiefs who have covered the spread in each of their five victories, while failing to do so in defeat, parlaying to a net profit of 1.55 units. After stumbling out of the gate, this is a team that has been one of the most rewarding sides in the NFL in that regard, logging FIVE SUATS wins over their last six outings, including last Monday night’s triumph over Washington (-10.5), marking their second consecutive cover as a favorite of 10.5+ points. Since arriving back in 2013, Reid is now 166-64 SU and 124-103-4 ATS overall, including 57-43 ATS away from Arrowhead, 92-84 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 77-65 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge, 81-72 ATS following a win, and 81-68 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops are 14-4 ATS when favored after covering a double-digit spread and have covered nine of eleven tilts immediately after relegating an adversary to fifteen or fewer points. However, Kansas City will be looking to break a recent trend in the month of November, where they have failed to cover FIVE straight games dating back to last Fall. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs trail the all-time series against the Bills 26-30-1 SU, but have won eight of the past thirteen encounters, posting a 5-4 ledger SUATS during the Mahomes era and have covered four of the last five meetings to boot. Interestingly, the rule of thumb in this rivalry is that Buffalo has gotten the better of Kansas City in the regular season, while Reid’s charges have OWNED those that have taken place in the playoffs (4-0 SUATS), which includes last January’s 32-29 affair in the AFC Championship Game. This one was nip and tuck, folks, as the two sides traded blows throughout the contest as the hosts continued to prove their mettle in the clutch: with the score level at 29-29 with 6:15 left in regulation, Mahomes engineered a 51-yard drive down to the visitor’s 17-yard line, setting up (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker for the game-winning 35-yard field goal. From there, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s unit closed it out with their second fourth down stop of the second half, halting their opponent on a fourth-and-five from roughly midfield. When it was all said and done, Mahomes completed 18-of-26 throws for 245 yards and a touchdown, while making an impact with his feet, which is such an underrated part of his game, rushing for 43 yards and two more scores on eleven carries. The aforementioned Worthy reeled in six of seven targets for 85 yards and an 11-yard touchdown, rushing for sixteen more yards to boot. Getting back to Mahomes, he has been a veritable boogeyman to the Bills (especially in the postseason), completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 273.8 yards on a healthy 7.33 net yards per attempt with nineteen touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, while rushing for another 29.1 yards per game and three more scores. With that being said, it should be noted that the 2-time MVP has been far more mortal in these regular season affairs, with ten total touchdowns in comparison to committing eight turnovers. As for his ledger ATS, Mahomes is now 71-59 ATS overall, including 33-25 ATS on the road, 60-56 ATS as a favorite, 53-42 ATS versus revenge, 54-46 ATS coming off a win, 43-29 ATS following back-to-back victories, 38-33 versus a foe fresh off a win, and 56-33 against non-division opponents, though by far and away his least rewarding role has come as… you guessed it, a road favorite (22-24 ATS). On the injury front, Pacheco (knee) and (Pro-Bowl Guard) Trey Smith (back) are each listed as questionable with various maladies, with the former getting twisted up in the second half of Monday’s tilt, while the latter was a late scratch. As for (Rookie Left Tackle) Josh Simmons, it appears that he will miss his fourth straight outing due to an ongoing personal matter. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will enter their bye week before hitting the road for their annual trip to Mile High to battle the surging Broncos in a showdown that figures to have major implications on the AFC West.
Meanwhile, the Bills (5-2, 1st in AFC East) made the most of their opportunity get right, snapping a 2-game losing streak prior to heading into their bye, embarrassing the shorthanded Panthers in a 40-9 blowout last weekend. Despite a relatively slow start in which they settled for a pair of 40-yard field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Matt Prater, the visitors eventually found their footing and never looked back, scoring touchdowns five of the next six possessions. (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook ripped of a 64-yard touchdown run midway through the second quarter, before tearing off a 21-yard score later in third period. (Reigning MVP Quarterback) Josh Allen dominated with a pair of rushing scores of his own along with a 54-yard touchdown strike to (veteran Wideout) Khalil Shakir to kick off the second half. In the end, Buffalo outgained Carolina 410-244 in total yards, 245-114 in rushing yards, and converted on a healthy 7-of-12 third downs en route to possessing the football for a commanding 33:32 of game time. Defensively, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott must have been happy to see his troops take advantage of a sputtering offense led by (backup QB) Andy Dalton, forcing the veteran into three turnovers, including a pair of interceptions and a strip-sack fumble via (veteran Edge) Gregory Rousseau. Pressure was available wholesale in this one, folks, as Dalton was sacked SEVEN times by seven different defenders and pressured on nine occasions (28.1%), with (veteran Defensive End) A.J. Epenesa logging four tackles, a sack, and an interception. Needless to say, this is precisely what the doctor ordered for a defensive unit that had been exploited during that prior losing skid, shipping 390.5 total yards against the Patriots and Falcons. The run defense has been a particular point of contention throughout the campaign thus far, with Buffalo struggling to slow down bigger, more physical teams in the trenches. Through seven games, they have been trampled on to the tune of 150.2 yards against the rush on a generous 5.5 yards per carry, with both figures ranking next-to-last in the NFL. Part of this is scheme related, but a plethora of injuries within the front seven has left them rather thin and unprotected in this regard (more on that in a bit). Fortunately, Allen (pictured below) and Cook have proven just stop on the other side of the football. While he hasn’t been as statistically impressive as he has been in previous seasons, Allen has been nonetheless effective, completing 68.0% of his throws for 1,560 yards on 6.99 net yards per attempt, with a dozen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 261 yards and five more scores. As for Cook, it is refreshing to see a rusher continue to ascend after getting paid handsomely, with the Georgia product leading the league at 107.6 yards per game and a whopping 6.0 yards carry, while rushing for seven touchdowns of his own. There has been persistent chatter that McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane are looking to add reinforcements in the passing game, particularly at Receiver where they have a number of options, with none quite standing out. The Trade Deadline is this coming Tuesday at 4:00 PM EST and Buffalo have been linked with a variety of pass-catchers, with tonight’s rematch with Kansas City potentially revealing how badly they need help in that area.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be sitting comfortably at 5-2 straight-up, but it has been a vastly different story against the spread (3-4), parlaying to a net loss of 1.27 units. After winning and covering each of their first two games of the campaign, this is a team failed to cover four consecutive contests before finally breaking through in last weekend’s romp over the Panthers (-7). Since arriving in Orchard Park back in 2017, McDermott is now 98-54 SU and 79-66-7 ATS overall, including 39-34 ATS at Highmark Stadium, 27-24 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 34-34 ATS when harboring revenge, 48-43 ATS following a win, 52-41 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East, and 15-12 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their last seven games against an adversary with a winning record, though are just 0-3-1 ATS over their past four home tilts. Buffalo has covered NINE of their last ten encounters with an AFC West opponent owning a win percentage north of .400, which is precisely the case this evening. As we touched upon earlier, this has been a relatively even series of late, developing in arguably the premier inter-division rivalry in the NFL over the past six seasons. Again, the Bills have been one of the few teams in the league to hold Kansas City’s number in the regular season, winning four of five meetings, including a 30-21 affair in Orchard Park roughly a year ago, though have been routinely stifled in the playoffs where they have met elimination at their hands four times in the past five postseasons. Last January’s latest chapter, that aforementioned 32-29 affair in the AFC Championship Game was latest installment of misery for Buffalo, who went toe-to-toe with the reigning AFC Champions throughout the evening, only to come up short twice on fourth down on their final three possessions. Allen completed 22-of-34 passes for 237 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another 39 yards on eleven carries, though flirted with disaster with three fumbles, none of which were lost. The aforementioned Cook put in a strong shift too, amassing 134 yards from scrimmage and two rushing scores on just sixteen touches. Getting back to Allen, he has certainly played well in these matchups with the Chiefs, completing 62.7% of his throws for an average of 255.5 yards on 6.56 net yards per attempt with nineteen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 54.1 yards per game and five more scores. As for his ledger ATS, Allen is now 66-55 ATS overall, including 34-31 ATS at home, 20-15 ATS as an underdog, 28-18 ATS with revenge, 44-39 ATS coming off a win, 30-28 ATS versus an adversary fresh off a victory of their own, and 46-35 ATS against non-division opponents. On the injury front, the defense was dealt a major blow with the announcement that (veteran Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver hit Injured Reserve to have surgery to repair a torn bicep, which is a big reason as to why their run defense has been so poor. The ninth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Oliver had been relegated to just three games this season. Furthermore, the defense could be even thinner up front as (fellow Defensive Tackle) DaQuan Jones (calf) is listed as questionable with various maladies, while (veteran Linebacker) Shaq Thompson is in the same boat with a tender hamstring. Looking ahead, the Bills will make their annual trip to South Beach to face the beleaguered Dolphins, before returning to Highmark for a visit from the NFC South-leading Buccaneers.