8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Cowboys -3.5, Total: 53.5
As the calendar transitions into November, we now have a clearer vision as to who these teams really are, as the struggling Arizona Cardinals travel to AT&T Stadium to face off against the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup of flawed former division rivals. The desert has been hotter than usual for the Cardinals (2-5, 4th in NFC West), who after a promising 2-0 start have since lost five consecutive contests, brought on by a rash of injuries to key players. Now in his third season in Arizona, (Head Coach) Jonathan Gannon inherited a lengthy rebuilding project and to his credit, showed progress last Fall, improving by four wins to finish 8-9. Projected by many to be a Wild Card contender within the NFC, these Redbirds have instead found themselves with clipped wings in what has shaped up as a very competitive division featuring three different 5-win rivals. So, what in the name of Pat Tillman has happened in Glendale, you ask? Well, as we touched upon in the opening, injuries have played a major role in their struggles with a dozen players occupying a place on Injured Reserve, including much of the Backfield with last year’s leading rusher, James Conner (1,508 yards from scrimmage) and his young backup, Trey Benson, out for the remainder of the campaign. Compounding matters has been the absence of (veteran Quarterback) Kyler Murray, who has missed the past three outings due to a lingering foot malady. The former number one overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Murray (pictured below) has been something of a polarizing figure around the league, mostly due to his unique skillset at just 5’10”, 207 lbs. At his best, he is a 2-time Pro-Bowler with an explosive ability to make plays outside of the pocket, but lately he has shown a reticence towards exposing himself, while continuing to struggle in throwing the football over the middle of the field. Then again, a history of injury has played a role in this regression; Murray suffered a torn ACL late in the 2022 campaign, costing him all but nine games of Gannon’s first year of the rebuild. Granted, he bounced back last Fall with 3,851 passing yards and rushed for 572 yards (both of which were his most since 2020), but the lack of explosive plays on either front was notable. Furthermore, the relationship with (Sophomore Wideout) Marvin Harrison Jr, whom the birds selected fourth overall, hasn’t been the most fruitful of partnerships. It also hasn’t helped matters that the offense has appeared to be more effective with (veteran journeyman QB) Jacoby Brissett playing in his stead; the Cardinals pushed both the Colts (27-31) and Packers (23-27) to the brink in successive weeks, averaging 25.0 points on 365.0 total yards, including 274.0 yards through the air on 6.21 net yards per attempt, with Brissett taking care of the football with four touchdowns in comparison to tossing only a single interception. But we know how this works, folks, for Murray, with his pedigree and $43 million cap hit, will be back in the proverbial cockpit once he’s healthy, though that apparently won’t be tonight. With that being said, (Offensive Coordinator) Drew Petzing must find a way to get his QB on the same page with the weapons around him, particularly Harrison (pictured below alongside Murray) and (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Trey McBride, who erupted for 111 catches and 1,146 yards last season. In the five games in which Murray was on the field, the passing game could muster just 170.2 yards on a miserable 4.56 net yards per attempt, with the unit as a whole averaging a mediocre 20.6 points and converting just 39.7% of their attempts on third down.
From a betting perspective, the Cardinals may be a disappointing 2-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been a rewarding side against the spread (4-3), equating to a net profit of 0.64 units. After covering just two of their first five outings, this is a team that has been more competitive despite fielding a backup QB, covering each of their last two games in which the aforementioned Brissett was the starter. Since arriving in the desert back two years ago, Cannon is now 14-27 SU and 24-17 ATS overall, including 13-8 ATS away from State Farm Stadium, 19-11 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-2 ATS following a bye week, 15-10 ATS coming off a loss, and 18-9 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered eleven of twelve games as an underdog in the second of back-to-back non-division affairs, four consecutive games away from Glendale, and six of their past seven tilts immediately after a SU defeat. However, this is also a group that is in the midst of a 1-4 run ATS when on the road and facing a foe with a losing home ledger. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that has been downright dreadful on Monday Night Football, posting a 6-18 record ATS, including 2-2 as a road dog, while covering just one of twelve meetings with an opponent coming off a SU loss, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. And if that wasn’t bad enough, these Redbirds are 1-4 ATS in their last five appearances on MNF, regardless of their role. Looking at this particular matchup, these former division rivals have met just twelve times since realignment in 2022, though the Cardinals have owned the series during that span (8-4 SU), including seven victories in eight contests. When they last crossed paths early on in 2023, Gannon’s charges pulled off a 28-16 outright victory despite being 11.5-point dogs, bending without breaking as their adversary routinely came up short in enemy territory, settling for three field goals. The ground game was the key for the hosts, who rushed for 222 yards on 30 carries, led by the aforementioned Conner with 98 yards and a touchdown on fourteen carries, while (journeyman QB) Joshua Dobbs (244 total yards, 1 TD), who had been acquired by the team shortly before the beginning of the campaign, performed better than anyone could have expected in place of the aforementioned Murray, who was still on the comeback trail after tearing his ACL in 2022. As for Brissett, the vet has never faced the Cowboys in his career, while owning a 2-2 ledger on Monday nights, completing 60.2% of his throws for an average of 163.8 yards and a pair of touchdowns with zero interceptions, rushing for another to boot. On the injury front, Murray will miss yet another game from that ailing foot that has sidelined him for the past two games, while (veteran Guard) Will Hernandez (knee), (journeyman Wideout) Zay Jones (knee), and (young Defensive Lineman) Darius Robinson (pectoral) are all listed as questionable to participate in this trip to Arlington. Additionally, (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Walter Nolan is out of action altogether due to a tender calf muscle. Looking ahead, the Cardinals will find out whether or not they have any chance of mounting a comeback within the AFC West as they face the Seahawks and 49ers in successive weeks, the former in Seattle and the latter in the desert.
Meanwhile, offense has by no means been an issue for the Cowboys (3-4-1, 2nd in NFC East), who have fielded one of the most prolific attacks in the NFL thus far. Through eight weeks, Dallas ranks second in both points scored (330.8) and total yards (384.1), including first in passing yards (271.0), thirteenth in rushing yards (120.4), eighth on third down (43.2%), and eleventh in the red zone (64.5%). Then again, this is about what we expected after (former Offensive Coordinator) Brian Schottenheimer was promoted to Head Coach, maintaining valuable continuity with a unit led by (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott and (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb, while also welcoming in the addition of the talented George Pickens, who the team added via trade from Pittsburgh in the Summer. After missing nine games last Fall due to a torn hamstring, Prescott has been at his best, leading the league in completed passes (204), first downs (100), and QBR (79.5), all the while completing a career-high 70.3% of his throws. As for Lamb and Pickens (pictured together below), they look like one of the most imposing tandems in the NFL, combining for 71 receptions, 1,091 yards, and seven touchdowns. With that in mind, why in the hell is this team a game under .500, you ask? Well, as great as the attack has been, the defense has been dreadful, which again, is about what we expected. Of course, the Cowboys shocked the sporting world when they traded away (perennial Pro-Bowl Edge) Micah Parsons just weeks before the regular season began after failing to come to a resolution to the longest contract saga in recent memory. (Longtime Owner) Jerry Jones was resigned to cutting ties with his star pass-rusher, instead taking the draft capital received in the deal from the Packers (First Round Picks in 2026 and 2027), though curiously attempted to spin to the media that the move was in the best interest for the franchise and would eventually lead to a more “well-rounded” defensive unit. To the surprise of absolutely nobody, this unit has been one of, if not the worst, defenses in the league, ranking next-to-last in points allowed (31.3), total yards relinquished (438.5), and passing yards conceded (258.3), while sitting at dead-last in net passing yards per attempt (7.3), passing touchdowns shipped (20) and third down defense (52.4%). Oh, and that run defense that Jones harped on being a shortcoming of his former star hasn’t gotten any better without him, with opponents trampling the Pokes for 146.0 yards per game (29th Overall) on 4.9 yards per carry (25th Overall). Basically, Prescott & Co need score 35+ points in order to win games this season, which was NOT the case in last weekend’s 44-24 loss at the Broncos. Against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, the visitors were outgained 426-339 in total yards and 179-108 on the ground, while Prescott was intercepted twice and sacked on two occasions. Big plays crushed Dallas early on in this one, folks, who gave up three touchdowns of 24+ yards, which was made all the more remarkable after they intercepted Bo Nix on the opening possession of the afternoon. Lamb and Pickens accounted for fourteen catches on nineteen targets for 152 yards, though neither could crack the end zone against Denver’s vaunted Secondary, while Dak was pressured on 18.4% of his drop-backs. In comparison, his defense hardly came close to sniffing Nix’s jersey, pressuring the sophomore QB once on 29 drop-backs.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may be 3-4-1 straight-up, but they have been marginally better against the spread (4-4), equating to a net loss of 0.36 units thus far. Interestingly, being an underdog has been the most effective role for this team to be in, covering three of four such games, though their lone blemish on that front came in last weekend’s drubbing at Mile High (+3.5). In his first season as the leading man, Schottenheimer is now 4-4 ATS overall, including 2-1 ATS at AT&T Stadium, 1-3 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-1 ATS following a loss, 2-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East, and 1-1 ATS immediately after shipping 35+ points. Furthermore, Dallas has covered just three of their last twelve outings after allowing more than 350 total yards, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the spectacle of Monday Night Football, posting an all-time ledger of 37-36 ATS overall, including 8-17 ATS as a home favorite. As we covered earlier, the Pokes have owned the all-time series against the Redbirds (56-35-1 SU), but they have won just once in their last eight meetings (1-7 ATS), including 0-3 in Arlington. Additionally, the road team 4-1 ATS over the past five encounters, while the underdog has covered seven of the last eight tilts. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned 28-16 shocker in the desert, the Cowboys were nothing short of self-destructive, amassing 416 total yards, only to give 107 yards back in penalties, while committing the only turnover of the afternoon and being stopped on their lone fourth down attempt. Red zone offense was another major issue for Big D, who were a dismal 1-of-4 within the opponent’s 20-yard line. Prescott was 25-of-40 for 249 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Lamb hauled in four catches on seven targets for 53 yards. Getting back to Dak, he is 1-2 against the Cardinals, completing 64.5% of his throws for 219.3 yards on 6.56 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to one interception, while rushing for another score to boot. As for his ledger on MNF, he is 5-1 with sixteen total touchdowns in comparison just four turnovers. Over the course of his career, he is now 74-64 ATS overall, including 39-32 ATS at home, 51-43 ATS as a favorite, 25-22 ATS following a loss, 28-23 ATS against an adversary fresh off a loss, and 39-51 ATS versus non-division foes. On the injury front, Schottenheimer & Co are getting healthier, but there are still some players whose status is currently up in the air: (Left Tackle) Tyler Smith (knee) and (Safety) Donovan Wilson (elbow) are listed as questionable, while (Sophomore Linebacker) DeMarvion Overshown (knee) and (Rookie Cornerback) Shavon Revel (knee) are getting close to making their season debuts after practicing on a limited basis this week. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will enter their bye week before traveling to Sin City for another MNF appearance, this time against the struggling Raiders, followed by a rematch of the season opener in their annual visit from the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Eagles.