8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Broncos -9.5, Total: 42.5
Bitter division rivals renew acquaintances in primetime, as the struggling Las Vegas Raiders make their annual trip to Mile High to battle the surging Denver Broncos, who are gunning for the top overall seed in the AFC. The more things change the more they seem to stay the same for the Raiders (2-6, 4th in AFC West), who once again find themselves circling the drain at the midpoint of a campaign despite yet another renovation of the organization. For those keeping score, this is the third year in a row in which Las Vegas has had a different General Manager, Head Coach, and Quarterback combination, as (Principal Owner) Mark Davis turned the keys to the franchise over to (Minority Owner) Tom Brady in an attempt to finally bring sustainable success to Sin City. Brady in turn hired his former collegiate teammate, John Spytek, as GM along with the venerable Pete Carroll to lead the rebuild, hoping that the 74-year-old’s unnatural positive energy would be enough to get this turnaround started in Sin City. Of course, you would be hard-pressed to find a more venerable skipper than Carroll (pictured below), who from 2010 to 2023 went 137-89-1 (.606) with the Seahawks, winning four division crowns, back-to-back NFC Titles, and a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLVIII. Interestingly, Carroll played a major role in acquiring the services of (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith, whom he coached in Seattle from 2020-2023, credited for reviving his career along the way. Coupled with the addition of (Offensive Coordinator) Chip Kelly, whom the club pried away from (reigning National Champion) Ohio State, and (Heisman finalist) Ashton Jeanty, whom they selected sixth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft, the expectation was that the Silver & Black would compete right away rather than taking the time for what for all intents and purposes should be a lengthy rebuild. Unfortunately, that simply hasn’t been the case as Brady may have to reassess his approach, for this team has been nothing short of a trainwreck, particularly on the offensive side of the football. So, what in the name of Kenny Stabler has gone wrong for the Raiders, you ask? Well, just about everything that these new faces were expected to bring to the table has failed to hit the mark. Kelly’s offense has been one of the league’s worst, ranking twenty-ninth in points (16.5) and thirtieth in total yards (302.7), particularly within the red zone where they’ve punched it in on a miserable 45.5% of their attempts (29th Overall), while Jeanty (3.9 yards per carry) has been up and down thus far behind a struggling Offensive Line. However, the biggest disappointment has been Smith, who was expected to be a sizable upgrade over the previous starters that have donned the Silver & Black of late. Indeed, the 2-time Pro-Bowler and 2022 Comeback Player of the Year has looked washed behind that porous O-Line and without the most influential piece of their passing game, (Sophomore Tight End) Brock Bowers, who missed five consecutive games with a knee injury. The 35-year-old has thrown the most interceptions in the NFL at this point (11) with a QBR of 39.3, which is his lowest in any season that he has been a starter. Even the long-awaited return of Bowers wasn’t enough to return the Raiders to winning ways in last weekend’s narrow 30-29 overtime affair against the Jaguars. For long stretches, the connection between QB and TE lived up to the hype, as Bowers reeled in twelve of thirteen targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns, including the third and final score that brought the hosts within one point with sixteen seconds remaining in the extra period. Instead of settling for a tie, Carroll rolled the dice, but Smith’s would-be winner was batted down at the line of scrimmage, ending the game in frustrating fashion. Again, this one came down to the vet’s mistakes; sure, he completed an efficient 29-of-39 passes for 284 yards and four touchdowns, but an ugly interception on their second play of the second half sapped any momentum they could muster despite owning a lead.
From a betting perspective, the Raiders may be 2-6 straight-up, but they have been marginally better against the spread (3-5), parlaying to a net loss of 2.27 units, which is easily the worst return of the teams housed within the AFC West. This is a group that has been more rewarding of late, with two covers over their last three outings, but they are just 10-15 in that regard dating back to last season. In his first year in Sin City, Carroll is now 1-3 ATS away from Allegiant Stadium, 2-4 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 2-3 ATS following a loss, and 0-2 ATS versus all opposition residing within their division. Furthermore, Las Vegas has covered just one of their last five outings immediately after an ATS win, while matching that mark over their past five outings after shipping 350+ total yards in the previous game. With that being said, they are 7-1 ATS as underdogs of 4+ points with revenge against an opponent coming off an outright win as a dog, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 7-10 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football, including 3-5 ATS away from home. Looking at this particular matchup, the Raiders own a commanding 73-56-2 advantage in the all-time series between these bitter rivals, though saw a 7-game win streak snapped with last Fall’s season sweep (0-2 ATS). When they met in Mile High in early October, the visitors utterly wasted an early 10-0 lead and conceded 34 unanswered points, as (former QB) Gardner Minshew was victimized by a seismic pick-6 in the end zone, which shifted the momentum firmly in favor of the Broncos. It would be a similar result in the return leg in Las Vegas, which was a veritable field goal fest, consisting of NINE combined treys by the two sides. However, turnovers were once again a problem for the hosts, as Minshew was intercepted before giving way to Desmond Ridder, who lost a fumble on a sack late in the fourth period. As for Smith, he is 3-1 all-time against Denver (2 starts), completing 66.7% of his throws for 139.0 yards per game, with five touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. With that being said, he has been dreadful in these midweek clashes, posting a 1-7 ledger on TNF with as many turnovers as touchdowns (8). Over his career, the West Virginia product is now 41-45 ATS overall, including 20-20 ATS on the road, 24-26 ATS as a dog, 20-24 ATS with revenge, 25-23 ATS after a loss, 12-12 ATS following back-to-back defeats, 19-29 ATS versus an opponent fresh off a win, and 15-16 ATS against division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (18-15 ATS). On the injury front, Carroll does have one of the healthier rosters in the league at his disposal, with the only significant absence being that of (veteran Left Tackle) Kolton Miller, who has missed the past five weeks of action on Injured Reserve with a nasty high ankle sprain. Interestingly, (third-year QB) Aidan O’Connell is close to returning from a surgically repaired wrist, which is notable given the aforementioned struggles of Smith. Since being drafted in the fourth round two years ago, the Purdue product has seen plenty of action, winning seven of seventeen starts with twenty touchdowns opposed to eleven interceptions. Looking ahead, the Raiders will return to Sin City to welcome visits from the Cowboys and Browns in successive weeks, presenting them with an opportunity to potentially turn things around.
Meanwhile, the Broncos (7-2, 1st in AFC West) have rebounded from a slow start to resemble the contender that many predicted they would be, coming into tonight as winners of six consecutive contests. Now in his third season in Mile High, (Head Coach) Sean Payton has awoken a sleeping giant, snapping an 8-year postseason drought with last Fall’s 10-7 finish. However, it still feels as if Denver has yet to truly meet its lofty potential, as the defense has largely carried an offense that continues its search for consistency. Indeed, (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph’s unit has lived up to expectations thus far, ranking fourth in points allowed (18.4) and third in total defense (279.8), thanks in large part to the most ferocious pass-rush in the NFL; seriously, folks, this group is bringing new meaning to the term orange crush, totaling 40 sacks (1st Overall) with a pressure percentage of 25.6% (3rd Overall) and a QB knockdown percentage of 12.8% (1st Overall). (Pro-Bowl Edge) Nik Bonitto has already logged eight sacks, seventeen QB hits, and eighteen pressures, while (fellow Linebacker) Jonathon Cooper isn’t far behind with seven sacks of his own. With that being said, we all knew that the defense was going to be great, but if this team was going to truly make the next leap, it would have to come from an offense led by (Sophomore Quarterback) Bo Nix. Drafted twelfth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, Nix (pictured below) came on strong over the second half of his rookie campaign and was thus expected to continue to develop as a sophomore, which has more or less been the case, though the growth has been more incremental than exponential. While his completion percentage has dropped from 66.3% to 61.2%, the 25-year-old has tossed seventeen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while being the recipient of much better pass-protection with just nine sacks equating to a percentage of 2.72%, which is the lowest of any starter thus far. He has also continued to play a role in the ground game, rushing for 207 yards and three more scores, which has been in a boon the red zone where Denver ranks eighth overall (67.9%). However, there are often stretches of games in which and the offense appear out of rhythm, which has driven Payton a bit mad, only for the Oregon product to snap out of it when it matters most, leading the NFL with four game-winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks apiece. This was the case in last weekend’s trip to Houston to battle the Texans, which saw the visitors rally back from a 15-7 deficit in the fourth period. After an uninspiring three quarters mired by an interception, a missed field goal, and a slew of punts, Nix & Co finally broke through with an 8-play, 61-yard drive early in the final stanza, as the QB hit (Rookie Tailback) R.J. Harvey for a 27-yard touchdown before finding his collegiate teammate, Troy Franklin for the 2-point conversion to draw level. From there, the two combatants would trade punts for much of the period, before Nix scrambled for 25 yards to get into enemy territory with 0:35 left in regulation, picking up another nine yards two plays later to set up (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz for 34-yard game-winner which sailed through the uprights. When it was all said and done, the Broncos came out of this veritable rock fight as the victors despite possessing the football for a meager 25:24 and amassing just 271 total yards. Nix finished with 173 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception on 18-of-37 passing but rushed for a timely 36 yards to boot. Defensively, Denver relinquished just 268 total yards and logged four sacks, knocking (Houston QB) C.J. Stroud out of the game on a late hit in the third quarter.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be 7-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (4-5), parlaying to a net loss of 1.36 units thus far. After failing to cover any of their first three outings, this is a team that has found their stride in that regard with four covers in their past six outings. Since arriving in Mile High two years ago, Payton is now 25-19 SU and 22-21-1 ATS overall, including 12-9 ATS at Empower Field, 12-9 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 5-9 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 12-12 ATS following a win, and 7-6 ATS against all opposition residing within the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of eight tilts at home against a sub-.500 foe, while riding a 4-0 run ATS within the month of November, with eight covers over their past nine home games. Dating back to 1990, this is franchise that is 13-11 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 2-2 as a home favorite, though it should be noted that Denver has failed to cover four in a row against division rivals in these midweek clashes. As we touched upon earlier, Payton & Co turned the tide after suffering seven straight defeats in this series between bitter enemies, sweeping the season series last Fall in comfortable fashion. The Broncos outscored the Raiders 63-37 over the two battles thanks in large part to a +5 turnover differential highlighted by (All-Pro Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II’s 100-yard interception return in the first leg from Mile High. Nix performed well in those two contests, completing 63.8% of his throws for an average of 239.5 yards on 6.40 net yards per attempt with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, while rushing for another score to boot. As for his ledger on TNF, he split two of them last Fall, throwing for 427 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for 100 yards on thirteen carries. ATS, Nix is now 15-11 ATS overall, including 8-4 ATS at home, 10-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-4 ATS versus revenge, 9-7 ATS following a win, 5-5 ATS after earning back-to-back victories, 5-5 ATS against an adversary fresh off a loss, and 4-3 ATS when pitted against a division rival with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (8-2 ATS). On the injury front, Peyton is dealing with a mounting group of potential absences, including (Defensive Lineman) John Franklin-Meyers (shoulder), (Safety) Brandon Jones (foot), (Wideout/Returner) Marvin Mims (concussion), (Cornerback) Riley Moss (ankle), and the aforementioned Cooper (thumb), who have all either been limited or held out of practice thus far. However, the most notable absence is that of Surtain, who suffered partial pectoral tear two weeks ago, which is expected to keep him out for multiple weeks moving forward. Looking ahead, the Broncos will buckle up for their annual visit from the Chiefs prior to their bye week, which should have a heavy hand in deciding whether or not Denver is able to snap Kansas City’s 9-year reign of terror over the AFC West.