9:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: USC -14.5, Total: 52.5
Our latest edition of Friday Night Lights takes us to the City of Angels, where the (No. 20) USC Trojans look to continue their push for a potential spot in the CFP Playoff, welcoming the upstart Northwestern Wildcats to the Coliseum with the visitors clinging to designs of securing bowl eligibility. After an up-and-down first two years in charge, it appears that (Head Coach) David Braun has Northwestern (5-3, 3-2 in BIG 10) firmly pointed in the right direction, winners of five of their past six outings. Indeed, these Wildcats have proven to be a major pain in the @$$ for many of the conference’s powerhouses, traditional and newcomer alike. They held (No. 4) Oregon to what was at the time a season-low 337 total yards, before dealing Penn State the deathblow that led to James Franklin’s firing after a 22-21 upset in a not-so-Happy Valley. Then, just two weeks ago they very nearly added another scalp at Nebraska, where they came up short in a 28-21 defeat (more on this matchup shortly). Needless to say, this is a group that should not be taken lightly, thanks in large part to an experienced defense that isn’t just one of the toughest in the BIG 10, but the country as a whole. With eight games in the books, NW has allowed 16.8 points per game (15th in FBS) on an average of 304.1 total yards, including 165.1 yards against the pass and another 139.0 versus the run, while compiling 32.0 tackles for loss and a dozen sacks. (Senior Linebacker) Mac Uihlein has been the consummate playmaker with five tackles for loss and FOUR interceptions, snaring one pick in each of the last two contests. Speaking of interceptions, if only (Senior Quarterback) Preston Stone could stop throwing them. Just two years ago, Stone (pictured below) looked like a star in the making, leading the AAC in yards per attempt (9.3), yards per completion (15.5), and passer rating (161.3) as a Junior at SMU, only to lose his starting job due to injury last Fall. With the Mustangs advancing to the Playoff, the Dallas native opted to enter the Transfer Portal and sign with the Wildcats, who were in dire need of a shot in the arm offensively; Braun’s offense ranked seventeenth in the BIG 10 last year, averaging a dismal 17.8 points on 284.4 total yards. While the yardage has increased this Fall (360.3), the points have only risen incrementally (22.5) due in large part to operating with a -4 turnover differential which their QB has had a heavy hand in. Simply put, no player at his position within the BIG 10 has thrown more interceptions than Stone (9), who has been picked off three times in the past two games alone. This includes that aforementioned venture to Lincoln, which was a game that was certainly up for grabs. After an ugly first half in which the Cornhuskers didn’t appear to be interested in winning anything after losing a fumble and missing a field goal, the hosts opened up a 21-6 lead courtesy of a 95-yard kickoff return to the house and another touchdown immediately following Stone’s first INT of the afternoon. However, back-to-back rushing scores via (Sophomore Tailback) Caleb Komolafe along with a successful 2-point conversion tied the affair midway through the final stanza. The visitors regained possession just two plays later thanks to an interception by the aforementioned Uihlein, but his own QB couldn’t stand prosperity, giving the ball right back deep in enemy territory. From there, the Huskers chewed up over six minutes of clock on a 13-play, 60-yard drive to paydirt. Stone & Co would have one final opportunity to draw level and force overtime but were ultimately halted on a 4th & 6 from the host’s 35-yard line.
From a betting perspective, Northwestern may be 5-3 straight-up thus far and they have been nearly as rewarding against the spread (4-2-1), parlaying to a net profit of 1.64 units. After a stellar run of five covers in six contests, including three in a row, this a team that hit the wall in their trip to Lincoln two weeks ago (+7). Since arriving in Evanston in 2023, Braun is now 18-15 SU and 18-11-1 ATS overall, including 6-6-1 ATS away from Ryan Field, 12-10-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-2 ATS following a bye week, 7-5 ATS after suffering a loss, and 13-9-1 ATS versus all competition residing within the BIG 10. Furthermore, the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS as underdogs in the second of back-to-back road games, while in the midst of a 4-game streak of covers immediately after shipping less than 170 passing yards in the previous tilt, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, this is only the sixth all-time meeting between these programs, with NW having never beaten the Trojans. They last crossed paths in the 1996 Rose Bowl, a lively affair in which the BIG 10 representatives rallied back from an early 24-7 deficit to take a 32-31 lead in the fourth quarter, only to concede ten unanswered points the rest of the way. On the injury front, Braun’s defense will have to do without (Purdue transfer) Yanni Karlaftis for the rest of the season due to an unknown malady, with the Senior Linebacker amassing just eleven tackles through five games playing primarily on Special Teams. Looking ahead, bowl eligibility is just one win away, but it may be difficult for Northwestern to achieve that goal given the rest of their schedule: the Wildcats return to Evanston to host (No. 21) Michigan followed by Minnesota, before closing the campaign at (bitter rival) Illinois, who bested them in a 38-28 affair last Fall.
Meanwhile, USC (6-2, 4-1 in BIG 10) is searching for consistency after alternating wins and losses over the last four games as they look to remain in contention in what is their second season in new conference. Indeed, upon poaching (Head Coach) Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma four years ago, the expectation was that the Trojans would regain their seat atop of the world of college football, though that hasn’t been the case. After a lukewarm finish to their time in the Pac-12, their transition to the BIG 10 proved to be difficult to say the least, finishing at 7-6 overall and 4-5 in league play. Granted, they weren’t the only newcomer to have a bit of a hard time, what with new unfamiliar opponents, travel arrangements, and stadium experiences factoring into the matter. This time around, Riley has a much more experienced group at his disposal, with eighteen returning starters in total, which has them better suited to navigate what has proven to be a much tougher landscape then their previous conference. When it comes to Riley, you expect high-powered offense, and Southern Cal has not disappointed in that regard, averaging 39.8 points per game (8th in FBS) on a robust 505.9 total yards, including 302.3 yards through the air and another 203.6 on the ground, equating to a healthy 7.6 yards per play. Now in his second season after transferring from UNLV, his first as the starter, (Junior Quarterback) Jayden Maiava has impressed with a BIG-10-best 289.4 yards per game, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while also proving to be an understated threat on the ground, particularly in the red zone where he has rushed for another five scores. Maiava (pictured below) has developed an excellent rapport with (Junior Wideout) Makai Lemon, who is producing an All-American campaign with 50 receptions for 776 yards and six touchdowns, with that yardage already surpassing his total from last Fall. However, neither Maiava nor Lemon proved to be particularly effective in last weekend’s 21-17 victory at Nebraska, for it was the defense that carried them to the W. For anyone who has been paying attention to USC since Riley took over, the defense has been a longstanding point of contention; after shipping 34.4 points on 432.8 total yards in their final season in the Pac-12, Riley lured (Defensive Coordinator) D’Anton Lynn away from crosstown rival, UCLA, and saw immediate improvement (24.1 points on 377.1 yards). This Fall, both figures have decreased incrementally to 22.4 and 355.1, with this unit playing a major role in the triumph in Lincoln. Indeed, the visitors held the Cornhuskers to a scant 286 total yards, including just 98 yards via the pass, logging five tackles and a pair of forced fumbles along the way, eventually knocking (Nebraska QB) Dylan Raiola out of the game due to injury. After the hosts pulled back ahead early in the fourth quarter, the Trojans responded in kind with a 75-yard drive that required just six plays, aided by a huge 43-yard pass from Maiava to (Senior Receiver) Jaden Richardson followed by a crucial defensive pass interference, setting up (Freshman Tailback) King Miller for the game-winning 6-yard rushing score.
From a betting perspective, USC may come into tonight’s showdown at 6-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (4-4), equating to a net loss of 0.36 units. This is a team that has really struggled in that latter regard following a hot start with back back-to-back SUATS wins, though has logged just two covers over the last six outings, failing to do so by the narrowest margins in that aforementioned victory over the Huskers (-4.5). Since arriving in Los Angeles back in 2022, Riley is now 32-16 SU and 24-24 ATS overall, including 15-9 ATS at the Coliseum, 17-21 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 13-16 ATS following a win, and 13-20 ATS versus all opposition residing within the BIG 10. Furthermore, the Trojans have covered eight of their past ten home tilts against BIG 10 competition but are in the midst of a 4-12 run ATS when coming off a victory. They have also struggled in these Friday night affairs, failing to cover all but four of their last fourteen games on this particular day of the week. As we covered earlier, these schools have met on the gridiron on just five occasions, including once since the late 1960s; that aforementioned 1996 Rose Bowl was a classic, folks, with (legendary Trojan) Keyshawn Johnson putting an exclamation point on a prolific campaign with twelve receptions for 216 yards and a touchdown only a few months before being selected number one overall in the 1996 NFL Draft. On the injury front, the biggest concern is a Backfield that appears to have little depth at this point of the campaign, with their leading rusher, ((Junior Tailback) Waymond Jordan out indefinitely due to a high ankle sprain suffered against Michigan three weeks ago. Jordan has rushed for 576 yards and five touchdowns thus far, but he isn’t the only Trojan RB that is out of action, for (New Mexico transfer) Eli Sanders (264 yards, 2 TD) is out for the season with a knee malady. This means that the aforementioned Miller will have to carry the load, which he did a good of doing in that win over Nebraska, rushing for 129 yards and the game-winning score. Looking ahead, USC will remain in SoCal for homecoming as Iowa pays them a visit, before making the trip north to battle Oregon in a clash that will have major ramifications on the final pecking order within the BIG 10.