12:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas Tech -9.5, Total: 52.5
With the release of the first CFP Playoff rankings of the Fall, the race to punch a ticket for the tournament heats up as the undefeated (No. 8) BYU Cougars look to remain so in this trip to Lubbock, where the (No. 9) Texas Tech Red Raiders await to knock them from their perch atop the BIG XII. Oh, what a time it is to be alive in Provo, where BYU (8-0, 5-0 in BIG XII) are enjoying their most fruitful run of success since the early Bronco Mendenhall era, winning NINETEEN of their last 21 games dating back to last season. Indeed, all it took was rejoining a conference for the Cougars to regain their swagger, as the BIG XII has proven to be more than a hospitable environment for growth. After a disappointing finish in 2023, (Head Coach) Kalani Sitake guided his alma mater to an 11-2 ledger last Fall, rising as high as sixth in the CFP Rankings, before coming up narrowly short via a 3-way tiebreaker to compete in the BIG XII Title Game. Rather than be content with that success, these cats have used last season as a launching pad to reach greater heights in 2025, surging to their second straight 8-0 start. Sitake has assembled a strong group on both sides of the football, averaging 36.2 points per game (19th in FBS) on a ruthlessly balanced 433.4 total yards (216.8 passing and 216.6 rushing), while shipping 17.0 points (16th in FBS) on 318.3 total yards, and enjoying a takeaway differential of +10. Interestingly, this is a team that endured a bit of controversy at Quarterback prior to the campaign, though have come out of it in even better shape; last year’s starter, Jake Retzlaff was suspended for the first seven games due to breaking the school honor code (premarital sex!!!) and unsurprisingly opted to enter the Transfer Portal, opening the door for (Stanford transfer) Bear Bachmeier to earn the starting role, which he has done with aplomb. Bachmeier (pictured below), the first true freshman to start an opener in school history, has performed well beyond his years, completing 62.7% of his throws for 1,693 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while factoring heavily into the ground game with an additional 408 rushing yards and NINE more scores. When we last saw him and the Cougars, they rebounded following back-to-back close calls against Arizona (33-27, 2OT) and Utah (24-21) by storming into Ames and manhandling an Iowa State side in freefall. Despite stumbling out to a slow start trailing 24-10 late in the second half, the visitors cut the deficit to seven points via a 12-yard strike from Bachmeier to (Senior Wideout) Parker Kingston just before the stroke of halftime. From there, BYU would outscore the Cyclones 24-3 post intermission, beginning with a 9-yard touchdown run courtesy of Bachmeier, followed later by another scoring strike to Kingston and a 40-yard pick-6 courtesy of (Sophomore Safety) Faletau Satuala. When it was all said and done, the Cougars permitted 495 total yards of offense to the home side, but made up for it with FOUR takeaways, including three interceptions by as many different players. Offensively, Bachmeier & Co totaled 410 yards themselves, with the frosh QB accounting for 356 total yards and three touchdowns, while Kingston and (fellow Receiver) Chase Roberts reeled in 133 and 128 yards respectively.
From a betting perspective, BYU may be one of the last few unbeaten teams left in the FBS, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (5-3), parlaying to a net profit of 2.55 units thus far. This is a team that has been streaky in that latter regard over the past two seasons, covering at least three consecutive contests on three different occasions, which includes the current run of form that they are on. Since returning to his alma mater in 2016, Sitake is now 80-43 SU and 59-54-1 ATS overall, including 31-23 ATS away from Provo, 29-17 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 8-10 ATS following a bye week, 36-31 ATS after a win, and 13-13 ATS versus all opposition residing within the BIG XII. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 6-0-1 run ATS immediately after posting 280+ passing yards in the previous game, while covering ten of their past eleven outings against an opponent with a winning record. On the flipside, the Cougars are just 2-9 ATS after a bye and coming off a double-digit victory and have seriously cooled off in November, with zero covers (0-3-1 ATS) in their last four tilts contested in this particular month. Looking at this particular matchup, this is only the third all-time meeting between these schools on the gridiron, with each side earning a victory. The first encounter came all the way back in 1940, but now that they can claim membership within the same conference, their most recent crossing of paths came two years ago; Brigham Young handled their business in the 27-14 victory at LaVell Edwards Stadium, racing out to a 24-7 halftime advantage, which would be more than enough to get the job done. Despite being outgained by 112 total yards, Sitake’s defense was decisive in forcing FIVE takeaways, including three interceptions by as many different defenders. (Former Cornerback) Eddie Heckard was the most impactful of the group, logging not only a pick, but a fumble recovery in the end zone for a touchdown. (Junior Tailback) L.J. Martin led the rushing attack with 90 of the team’s 150 yards on the ground on just ten carries. On the injury front, there were initial fears that Martin would miss this seismic showdown in Lubbock due to a nagging shoulder malady, though it appears that the rest granted by the bye week did his body good as he has since been lifted from the injury report. Needless to say, this is MAJOR news for the Cougs, for Martin leads the BIG XII with 789 rushing yards on a healthy 6.0 yards per carry and will be counted upon to keep an aggressive Texas Tech defense honest. Looking ahead, BYU’s push for a spot in the Playoff will see them return to Provo to host TCU, before what should be an arduous trip to (No. 25) Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, in this era of college football that has been dominated by the Transfer Portal and NIL creating a landscape in which any school willing to pay the price to upgrade their roster can make a significant leap up the rankings, few have been able to make the ascension that Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1 in BIG XII) have this Fall. After topping out at eight wins to match their highwater mark over the past fifteen years, the Red Raiders finally decided to open up their considerable war chest and build a team capable of competing in not just the BIG XII but in the Playoff. (Head Coach) Joey McGuire set about improving an abysmal defense that ranked 126th overall in the FBS last season (460.2 yards per game), instituting a full-blown makeover on that side of the ball. First, he fired (Defensive Coordinator) Tim DeRuyter and replaced him with Shiel Wood, who served in that same capacity at Houston a year ago. Second, he dove headfirst into the Portal and netted an impressive haul consisting of SEVENTEEN new players, many of which were defenders with the Defensive Front and Secondary receiving the bulk of the attention. (Edge-Rusher) David Bailey, (Defensive Lineman) Anthony Holmes Jr., (Defensive Tackle) Lee Hunter, (Linebacker) Romello Height, and (Defensive Backs) Cole Wisniewski, Brice Pollack, and Dontae Balfour have effectively turned this unit into one of the stringiest in the country with the numbers more than speaking for themselves; Tech have relegated opponents to just 13.2 points (5th in FBS) on 271.3 total yards, including 196.8 yards against the pass, with a takeaway margin of +8. Seriously, folks, this was an outfit that allowed opposing QBs to complete 64.0% of their throws for 308.1 yards (132nd in FBS!!!) on 8.44 yards per attempt and 28 touchdowns in comparison to fourteen interceptions last Fall. With nine games in the books, they have shipped a completion percentage of 55.5% and an average yards per attempt of 5.59, with just nine touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions. It starts up front, where Wood’s Defensive Line has wreaked havoc like few others have this season, compiling 67.0 tackles for loss and a whopping 28.0 sacks, leading to twenty takeaways. Of the newcomers, Bailey (pictured below) has been nothing short of transformative, with the Stanford transfer leading the FBS in sacks (11.5) and ranking second in tackles for loss (14.0), taking down the QB eight times in the last five games alone. After suffering their only loss of the season at Arizona State (26-22), McGuire’s charges have been out for blood ever since, outscoring Oklahoma State and Kansas State by a combined 65 points in successive weeks. Last weekend’s 43-20 drubbing of the Wildcats was a dominant showing by Texas Tech, who after conceding the opening score on a 46-yard touchdown run by K-State’s Avery Johnson, proceeded to run off 43 of the game’s final 56 points. The visitors stormed into the Little Apple and outgained the home side 436-325 in total yards, led by (Senior Quarterback) Berhen Morton, who finished with 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21-of-32 passing, while (Sophomore Tailback) J’Koby Williams erupted for 135 rushing yards and a score on seventeen carries. Defensively, the Red Raiders came away with FIVE takeaways, including three recovered fumbles. Pollack, a Mississippi State transfer, continued to be one of the most opportunistic players in the country, intercepting his fourth pass of the season and recovering his first fumble. Furthermore, (Sophomore Linebacker) John Curry accounted for another of those recoveries, returning his ten yards to paydirt late in the fourth quarter.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get when it comes to Texas Tech thus far, who have covered the spread in each of their eight victories and failed to do so in their lone defeat, equating to a net profit of 5.36 units, the most of any team in the BIG XII. After their torrid 6-0 start ATS was snapped in a fateful trip to Glendale in mid-October, this is a team that recaptured their stride in that regard covering each of their past two outings, including last weekend’s drubbing of Kansas State (-7.5). Since arriving in Lubbock back in 2022, McGuire is now 31-17 SU and 27-17-1 ATS overall, including 14-7 ATS at Jones AT&T Stadium, 17-11 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-13 ATS following a win, and 21-11 ATS versus all opposition residing within the BIG XII. Furthermore, his troops have covered six consecutive tilts at home, along with seven of their last eight games in conference play, while finding themselves in the midst of an 11-1 run ATS as league favorites of fewer than eighteen points against an adversary coming off a bye, which is precisely the case tonight. With that being said, the Red Raiders are just 2-6 ATS at home following a double-digit ATS victory and facing a foe fresh off a win themselves. As we touched upon earlier, these programs are meeting for just the third time in their respective histories, with that aforementioned 27-14 defeat in Provo from two years ago serving as their most recent encounter. Again, despite outgaining BYU 389-277 in total yards, the Raiders routinely shot themselves in the foot with FIVE turnovers, including three interceptions tossed by (former QB) Jake Strong. (Former Tailback) Taj Brooks rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown on an industrious 30 carries. On the injury front, (Senior Defensive Tackle) Skyler Gill-Howard (leg) and (Freshman Quarterback) Will Hammond (knee) are out for the remainder for the rest of the season with various maladies, with the absence of the latter potentially proving troublesome. Hammond performed very well in place of an injured Morton, with 680 passing yards and seven touchdowns in eight appearances, racking up 169 yards and a pair of passing scores on 13-of-16 passing and another 61 rushing yards in a 34-10 blowout of Utah in Salt Lake City. Looking ahead, Texas Tech will have to like their chances of advancing to the Playoff if they see off the Cougars this afternoon, as a visit from UCF and a trip to Morgantown against West Virginia rounds out their regular season schedule.