8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Packers -2.5, Total: 45.5
Week 10 reaches its climax at the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers look to bounce back from an ugly loss, while the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Philadelphia Eagles appear to be rounding back into form in this rematch of last winter’s division round of the playoffs. Expectations are often a fickle thing in sports, particularly for the Eagles (6-2, 1st in NFC East) who you would think were 2-6 based on the national perception of this, this defense of the franchise’s second-ever Lombardi Trophy. Last Fall, the birds were utterly dominant en route to Super Bowl glory, closing their postseason on 16-1 run with an 18-1 advantage in takeaways over the final six contests alone, all the while fielding the league’s second-ranked rushing offense (179.3) and number one overall total defense (278.3). This season though, that statistical dominance has been largely absent, as (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s charges have outscored the opposition by just 2.9 points per game and have actually been outgained by a margin of 31.8 total yards. Much of the concern lies on the offensive side of the football, where new Offensive Coordinator, Kevin Patullo, who had served as Passing Game Coordinator/Associate HC over the past two seasons, has given off 2023 vibes, which is NOT what the boobirds in Philly want to see. It really is interesting to see this play out as much of this team’s success has been dependent on the carousel of coordinators that have come through the City of Brotherly Love. Similar to their perplexing campaign from two years ago, the passing game has been inconsistent and (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown is once again (passive aggressively) feuding with his Quarterback, Jalen Hurts, while the ground game has yet to truly find its legs. From Weeks 1 to 6, the birds could churn out just 274.5 total yards, including 179.5 through the air and a pedestrian 95.3 yards on the ground, which is downright mystifying given the presence of (reigning Rushing Champion) Saquon Barkley. Last season, there was no greater impact free agent signee than Barkley (pictured below), who erupted for 2,005 rushing yards and thirteen scores. However, his rushing production has decreased by a staggering 51.7% this Fall, which absent of injury reeks of impropriety in terms of playcalling and utilization. With that being said, the Eagles did snap a 2-game losing streak with back-to-back wins over the Vikings (28-22) and most recently the Giants (38-20), which both featured an impressive jolt from the attack. In Minnesota, Patullo opened up the playbook and unleashed the passing game, as Hurts repeatedly beat the blitz with a season-high 316 yards and three touchdowns on an efficient 19-of-23 attempts yards, netting a whopping 13.3 net yards per throw. A week later against New York, who embarrassed them three weeks ago on a Thursday Night, it was Barkley’s turn to remind everyone that he is still the best in the business, exploding for 174 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns, including a 65-yard house call on the second play of the afternoon. Philadelphia trampled Big Blue to the tune of 276 rushing yards with (Backup Tailback) Tank Bigsby also breaking the century mark, racking up more yards on the ground than their opponent could muster altogether (246). Hurts wasn’t as prolific as he was in Minneapolis, hitting on 15-of-20 passes for 179 yards, but he did toss four touchdowns, including a pair to (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert. Defensively, Vic Fangio’s unit adjusted in their second look at (Rookie QB) Jaxson Dart, sacking him five times and pressuring him on 22.6% of his drop-backs.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 6-2 straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread (5-3), parlaying to a net profit of 1.55 units. This has been a streaky team in that regard, folks, stringing together three consecutive SUATS victories, before dropping back-to-back outings, followed by two straight covers, the most recent of which being that aforementioned romp over the Giants (-7.5). Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love in 2021, Sirianni is now 60-24 SU and 43-39-3 ATS overall, including 20-18 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field, 8-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 4-3 ATS following a bye week, 16-26 ATS against an adversary harboring revenge, 31-23 ATS coming off a win, 29-24 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East, and 7-6 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points in the previous contest. Furthermore, his troops have covered seven of their last nine games after a double-digit victory over a division rival, five in a row against foes with a win percentage above .500 and are in the midst of a 6-1-1 run ATS in the month of November. Given how they managed to get the ground game going in their last tilt, it is worth noting that these birds have covered ten of eleven games after churning out 150 rushing yards, which is the case tonight. With that being said, there are a few trends working against Philly in this one, the most glaring being a run of ELEVEN consecutive non-covers as an underdog of fewer than nine points against an opponent fresh off an outright loss as a favorite, which is also the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that has been successful on Monday Night Football (39-27 ATS), including a stellar 14-7 ATS as a road dog, while also covering ELEVEN straight games after scoring 35+ points in the previous outing. However, the birds are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS on MNF. Looking at this particular matchup, the Eagles trail the all-time series against the Packers (20-29 SU), though have certainly held the edge of late with four wins in their past five encounters going back to 2019. Of course, they crossed paths twice last Fall, first in the season opener in Sao Paulo (34-29) and later in the division round of the playoffs (22-10). While the former was an entertaining shootout in Brazil, the latter was a veritable rock fight at the Linc, where Fangio’s defense relegated the visitors to 302 total yards and forced four turnovers. As he did in their first meeting (132 yards from scrimmage, 3 TD), Barkley dominated with 119 rushing yards on 25 carries, while Hurts put together an efficient performance with 197 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Super Bowl LIX MVP is 3-1 all-time against Green Bay, completing 56.8% of his throws for 167.7 yards per game on 6.65 net yards per attempt with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while picking up another 63.7 yards via the run. MNF has been a different story though (4-5), with Hurts tossing more picks (11) than TDs (8), but he has compensated with ten rushing scores. Over the course of his career, he is now 39-40 ATS overall, including 19-21 ATS on the road, 10-11 ATS as a dog, 14-29 ATS versus revenge, 31-24 ATS following a win, 23-17 ATS after back-to-back victories, 15-20 ATS against an adversary coming off a loss, and 30-26 ATS opposite non-division foes. On the injury front, Philly may be coming off a bye, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are healthy, as a number of players are expected to miss this trip of Lambeau. (Center) Cam Jurgens (knee), (Cornerback) Adoree Jackson (concussion), and most notably the aforementioned Brown (hamstring) are all out of action with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Eagles will remain in the NFC North as they return home to welcome the mighty Lions for yet another primetime affair.
Meanwhile, after the first few weeks of action it appeared that the Packers (5-2-1, 1st in NFC North) were on the shortlist of Super Bowl contenders, though it now looks like this team is trending closer to very good rather than great. Of course, Green Bay shocked the sporting world when they went against type and pulled off a blockbuster trade for (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons in a deal with the Cowboys struck days before the season opener. Following a dominant 2-0 start in which the defense snuffed out a pair of division winners in the form of Detroit (27-13) and Washington (27-18) yielding an average of 238.0 total yards, the hype train reached levels that the franchise hadn’t seen in years. However, since that scintillating start it has been very much a mixed bag for these Cheeseheads, who are 3-2-1 with stunning losses to the Browns (13-10) and Panthers (16-13), while coming up with a 40-40 tie against Parsons’ former employers. Apart from a watershed 35-25 victory in Pittsburgh over (former Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers, this group has been far from convincing, even in their other two wins against Cincinnati (27-18) and Arizona (27-23). So, what in the name of Bart Starr is going on, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur has deal with several ongoing injuries on the offensive side of the football (more on that in a bit), while that unit as a whole has been forced to adjust their approach after opponents have guarded against their vertical passing threat. Now in his third season as the starting QB, Jordan Love is quietly thriving with career-highs in a slew of categories including completion percentage (70.8%), yards per game (258.9), net yards per attempt (7.59), and QBR (73.0), while tossing thirteen touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions through eight games, logging three fourth quarter comebacks to boot. However, this attack has long been at its best when utilizing play action, which is dependent on the ground game making enough of an impact to force the opposing defense into action, which just hasn’t been a consistent thing this Fall. The Packers rank a middling sixteenth in rushing yards (112.9) and twenty-fourth in yards per carry (4.0) despite attempting the fifth-most rushes in the league (28.5). Sure, they have had some strong performances against poor defenses such as the Commanders (135), Cowboys (164) and Bengals (153), but have otherwise churned out a meager 90.2 yards the rest of the way. This was the case in last weekend’s shocking upset at the hands of Carolina; despite outgaining the visitors 369-265 in total yards largely on the strength converting 7-of-13 third downs, Green Bay routinely came undone in the red zone, fumbling away possession deep in enemy territory on the opening drive of the afternoon and settling for a pair of field goals, the latter of which was from just 27 yards out. From there, (veteran Kicker) Brandon McManus couldn’t make it 3-of-3, missing 43-yarder on the first drive out of halftime, before Love tossed a perplexing interception into the end zone with nary a target close to the defensive back. On the next possession, he drove the Pack all the way to their adversary’s 13-yard line, but only to be stopped on a 4th & 8. The home side would finally break through with a short plunge into the end zone courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs to draw level with 2:32 left, but the defense finally capitulated shipping a crucial 19-yard run from midfield to set up the game-winning field goal from 49 yards. Indeed, run defense was a persistent problem for (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley’s unit, who were pummeled to the tune of 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 33 carries.
From a betting perspective, the Packers are 5-2-1 straight-up but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (3-5), equating to a net loss of 2.27 units. This has been a team that has been difficult to get a handle on in that regard, folks, with five SU wins without over their past twenty games, while last weekend’s outright loss as 12.5-point favorites undoubtedly left plenty of bettors pulling their hair out. Since arriving in 2019, LaFleur is now 75-40-1 SU and 64-51-1 ATS overall, including 35-22 ATS at Lambeau Field, 41-39 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 24-15 ATS when harboring revenge, 19-15 ATS following a loss, and 29-26 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover all but one of their last five outings, while also sitting in the midst of a 4-game losing streak ATS immediately after amassing over 250 passing yards int he previous game, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to Monday Night Football, posting a middling 31-30 ledger ATS, including 11-11 ATS as a home favorite. As we touched upon earlier, the Cheeseheads own a 29-20 all-time advantage, though have lost four of the last five meetings (1-4 ATS). Interestingly, the home team and favorite have covered each of the past four affairs, with total resulting in an under in twelve of seventeen encounters, including five of the last seven tilts contested at Lambeau. Focusing on their two battles from last Fall, the Packers had far more success in that opener in Sao Paulo than they did in the playoffs; LaFleur’s charges racked up 414 total yards and forced three turnovers in a sloppy yet entertaining 34-29 affair, before repeatedly shooting themselves in the foot with four turnovers committed in the 22-10 conclusion to their campaign. Love has struggled against the birds, losing all three encounters, completing 58.9% of his throws for an average of 195.0 yards on 7.17 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. As for his ledger on MNF, the gunslinger is 2-2 with a pair of touchdowns in comparison to five total turnovers. ATS, Love is now 21-21 ATS overall, including 11-9 ATS at home, 11-13 ATS as a favorite, 8-5 ATS with revenge, 5-9 ATS following a loss, 12-12 ATS versus a foe fresh off a win, and 16-15 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, Green Bay was dealt a major blow to the passing game with the season-ending loss of (young Tight End) Tucker Kraft, who tore his ACL in last weekend’s loss to Carolina. A rising star, Kraft leads the team in both receiving yards (489) and touchdowns (6), including a season-high 143 yards and two scores in the victory at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. Furthermore, (Sophomore Edge) Lukas Van Ness (foot) and (Receiver) Dontavion Wicks (calf) will also miss tonight’s showdown at Lambeau, while (Linebacker) Quay Walker (calf), (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs (calf), (Offensive Lineman) Zach Tom (back), (Wideout) Christian Watson (knee), and (Defensive Lineman) Devonte Wyatt (knee) are all listed as questionable after being limited throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, the Packers will make the trip to the Meadowlands to face the struggling Giants, before returning home for their annual visit from their bitter rivals, the Vikings.