8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Patriots -12.5, Total: 43.5
Bitter division rivals kick off Week eleven as the surging New England Patriots have their sights set on not only the summit of the AFC East, but the AFC as a whole, playing host to the New York Jets, who are in the midst of what has been a painful beginning to a new era of football in the Big Apple. For the fourth time in a decade, the Jets (2-7, 4th in AFC East) have hit the proverbial reset button and are in the early stages of a rebuild, all in an attempt to finally snap the longest-running playoff drought in the NFL. That’s right, folks, unless something utterly shocking happens over the next two months, this is a franchise that will have missed the postseason for a fifteenth consecutive campaign, which only underscores the task at hand for (Head Coach) Aaron Glenn and (General Manager) Darren Mougey in their first year on the job in New York. Of course, Glenn (pictured below) is no stranger to slow turnarounds, after spending the previous four seasons in Detroit where his work as Defensive Coordinator played no small role in the club’s growth from perennial doormat to powerhouse. He is also no stranger to Gang Green, who drafted him twelfth overall in the 1994 NFL Draft, spending the first eight years of his career where he was selected to a pair of Pro-Bowls along the way (1997, 1998). However, there is a very real possibility that he and (General Manager) Darren Mougey may have underestimated the amount of work to be done before them, evidenced by how dreadful the Jets were through their 0-7 start. The offense could muster just 18.4 points on 271.3 total yards, with (veteran Quarterback) Justin Fields struggling through a whirlwind stretch in which he missed a game after suffering a concussion and was briefly benched due to poor play, even drawing the ire of (Owner) Woody Johnson, who made some particularly damning comments about his QB in early October. Meanwhile, the defense, which had been the team’s strength under the previous regime, struggled to adapt to Glenn’s preferences, shipping 26.1 points on 326.4 total yards, failing to log a single takeaway through the first five outings. As a result, New York was a MAJOR seller at the Trade Deadline, parting ways with their two biggest pieces of their once-promising defense, shipping away (2-time All-Pro Cornerback) Sauce Garnder and (3-time Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Quinnen Williams to the Colts and Cowboys respectively, in return for a windfall of draft capital, including THREE first-round picks and a second-round pick over the next two NFL Drafts. Again, there was a sense that even with their credentials, neither Garnder nor Williams was a good fit for Glenn’s scheme, with those picks potentially setting the franchise up for a transformative period of growth. However, there is still roughly half a season left to play, which will serve as inventory for Glenn and Mougey before they make more changes come Spring. Interestingly, this is a team that comes into tonight’s annual trip to Foxborough as winners of two in a row, besting the hapless Bengals in a spirited 39-38 shootout prior to their bye week, before emerging fresh to handle the struggling Browns in a 27-20 affair last weekend. After falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter, Gang Green turned the tables on Cleveland via Special Teams, courtesy of a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by (veteran Returner) Kene Nwangu followed shortly by a 74-yard punt return to the house via (journeyman Wideout) Isaiah Williams. The visitors would draw level twice before halftime, but the second half would belong to the hosts, as (veteran Tailback) Breece Hall, who remained with the team despite being heavily linked with other teams prior to the Deadline, ripped off a 42-yard catch-and-run from Fields, with a 37-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Nick Folk putting the game out of reach. When it was all said and done, the Jets earned the win despite being outgained 278-169 in total yards, lost the turnover battle 0-1, and possessed the football for a scant 25:56. Those two returns were absolutely seismic, while Hall’s prolific performance (125 yards from scrimmage) served as a reminder that there are still playmakers to be found at MetLife Stadium.
From a betting perspective, the Jets may be 2-7 straight-up, but they have been far more rewarding against the spread (5-4), equating to a net profit of 0.55 units thus far. This is a team been underdogs in all but two games this season and sizable ones at that, facing a spread greater than five points on four occasions, amassing a 3-1 record ATS along the way. In his first year on the job, Glenn is now 2-1 ATS away from the Meadowlands, 5-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 1-0 ATS following a win, and 0-2 ATS all opposition residing within the AFC East. Furthermore, New York has covered just one of their last nine outings on the road against an adversary with a winning home record, while posting a miserable 7-23 ledger ATS versus a division foe coming off a non-division contest, including 1-11 ATS when those matchups are away from MetLife, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that 9-10 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 4-5 ATS as a road dog. Looking at this particular matchup, the Jets trail the all-time series with the Patriots by a wide margin (56-75-1 SU), a ledger that has been woefully unbalanced over the past fifteen years with 24 defeats in 30 meetings. They have covered just two of the last nine encounters, including 1-4 ATS over the past five meetings in New England. On the bright side, Gang Green has taken two of the last three affairs, splitting the series from last Fall as each side proved victorious on the home field. When they met in the Meadowlands in mid-September, the hosts dominated their rivals in a 24-3 drubbing, though tables turned come late October when they crossed paths at Gillette Stadium, blowing a late 22-17 advantage to fall 25-22. After leaving just 2:57 on the clock following a lengthy 10-play,70-yard touchdown dive culminating in a touchdown via (young Tailback) Braelon Allen, their defense completely collapsed as the visitors marched 70 yards downfield on a 12-play possession ending with a not only a score, but a successful 2-point conversion to boot. With just 22 seconds remaining in regulation, (former QB) Aaron Rodgers could reach no further than midfield, which was well away from Folk’s field goal range. Of course, there is likely little to be gleaned from either of those contests seeing as how this current incarnation of the Jets is a completely different entity than their predecessor. Getting back to Fields, he is 1-0 in his career against the Pats, completing 13-of-21 throws for 179 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for 82 yards and another score on fourteen carries in a 33-14 win from back in his early days with the Bears. The former first-rounder is 1-2 all-time on Thursday nights, averaging 214.3 total yards with five passing scores opposed to one interception. As for his CV ATS, Fields is now 22-7 ATS overall, including 11-14 ATS on the road, 16-21 ATS as a dog, 16-12 ATS with revenge, 7-9 ATS off a win, 1-4 ATS following back-to-back victories, 11-15 ATS against an opponent fresh off a win of their own, and 5-11 ATS opposite of a division rivals. On the injury front, Glenn has nine players languishing on Injured Reserve, including (oft-injured Guard) Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) and (veteran Defensive Back) Andre Cisco (shoulder). (Third-year Edge) Will McDonald, who leads the team with seven sacks, hasn’t practiced due to a sore quad muscle, while (young Wideout) Garrett Wilson is in the same boat after exiting last weekend’s matchup with an ailing knee. Looking ahead, the Jets will remain on the road for a trip to Baltimore to face the renewed Ravens, before returning home for a visit from the fading Falcons.
Meanwhile, the Patriots (8-2, 1st in AFC East) are also beginning a new era of football under a new regime, but they have had no such issues as (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel has successfully turned around the franchise after a dreadful 2-year-run. Indeed, who would have thought that all that New England had to do to get back to winning ways was bring back a few figures from their dynastic 2-decade run? Arguably the worst kept secret in the NFL this past offseason was Vrabel’s (pictured below) desire to return to coaching after a one-year hiatus, with designs on returning to the franchise where he spent eight widely successful years as a player, winning three Super Bowls along the way (2001, 2003, 2004). Joining him is (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels, who is now embarking on his third different stint with the Pats in that capacity, where he routinely cultivated some of the best offenses in the league. Coupled with a transformative draft and free agency in which they addressed their many holes, and you have a team that looks well ahead of schedule as a legitimate contender within the AFC. With ten games in the books, the Patriots are a top-10 on both sides of the football, ranking eighth in points scored (26.5) and tenth in total offense (359.1), along with sixth in points allowed (19.2) and eighth in total defense (306.2). At the heart of their success has been (Sophomore Quarterback) Drake Maye, the third overall pick from the 2024 NFL Draft who is absolutely flourishing within McDaniels’ system and benefitting exponentially with an upgraded supporting cast. Raise your hand if you had Maye (pictured below alongside Vrabel) as the favorite to win MVP honors at this point of the campaign? The 23-year-old has completed an efficient 71.7% of his throws for an average of 255.5 yards on 7.48 net yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions, with a QBR of 72.9, which is an improvement of 17.7 points from his rookie season. Furthermore, he is also a threat to make plays with his legs, rushing for 283 yards and two more scores on 4.3 yards per carry. Granted, there were some who remained skeptical on New England’s success due to their strength of schedule of late, with six of their eight victories coming against sub-.500 adversaries. With that being said, this is a group that went to Buffalo and bested the Bills in a 23-20 primetime affair back in early October, while doing the same in last weekend’s venture to Florida’s Gulf Coast where they defeated the NFC South-leading Buccaneers in a 28-23 affair. This was perhaps the Pats’ most impressive performance of the season thus far, as Maye & Co racked up 435 total yards against Tampa Bay’s physical, blitzing defense. After being sacked SIXTEEN times in the previous three outings, the young gunslinger was sacked just once in this one, folks, completing 16-of-31 passes for 270 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception, hitting (Rookie Receiver) Kyle Williams for a 72-yard score to draw level at the conclusion of the first quarter. However, the biggest takeaway was the emergence of (Rookie Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson, who erupted for 147 rushing yards and a pair of scores on fourteen carries. Thrusted into an expanded role due to injuries in the Backfield, the Ohio State product embarrassed the Bucs on two occasions in the second half, the first being a 55-yard sprint to the end zone on the opening drive of the third period, followed by a similar 69-yard touchdown late int he final stanza to seal the deal.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots may be 8-2 straight-up, but they have also been an excellent play against the spread (7-3), parlaying to a net profit of 3.36 units thus far, which is one of the best returns in the NFL. This is a team that has been making a lot of bettors happy during this 7-game win streak in which they have covered SIX of those contests, including last weekend’s triumph in Tampa (+2.5). In his return to Foxborough, Vrabel is now 2-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, 4-2 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 5-2 ATS following a win, and 2-0 ATS versus all opposition residing within the AFC East. Furthermore, New England has covered four straight outings after amassing 350+ total yards in the previous game and are in the midst of a 4-0 streak ATS versus their division rivals, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 12-9 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 5-4 ATS as a home favorite, while covering six of seven tilts opposite an adversary who is below .500, which again is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the Pats have absolutely dominated the Jets over the last fifteen years (24-6 SU), though much of that success came during the dynastic reign of Tom Brady. Since the GOAT left Foxborough in 2020, the rivalry has still been firmly in their favor, with eight victories in ten encounters, including their most recent, that aforementioned 25-22 affair from last Fall. After Maye opened up the scoring with a 17-yard jaunt into the end zone midway through the first quarter, the visitors responded by scoring 22 of the next 32 points, leading 22-17 with just under three minutes left to play in regulation. However, with Maye knocked out of the game due to a concussion, (veteran journeyman) Jacoby Brissett would prove up to the task, engineering a 12-play drive encompassing 70 yards, converting thrice on third down before handing it off to (veteran Tailback) Rhamondre Stevenson for the go-ahead touchdown, followed by a successful 2-point conversion between QB and RB to extend the lead to three points, which would be enough to earn the victory. Getting back to Maye, he saw sparing action in those two meetings with New York, completing 7-of-14 throws for 45 yards and that rushing score. The same can be said of his time on Thursday nights, connecting on 4-of-8 passes in his first encounter with Gang Green. As for his ledger ATS, the UNC product is now 13-8 ATS overall, including 5-6 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS as a favorite, 6-3 ATS following a win, 5-1 ATS after back-to-back victories, 4-3 ATS against a foe fresh off a win themselves, and 5-1 ATS versus division adversaries. On the injury front, Vrabel has a mounting host of bodies that have been limited throughout the short week of practice, including (Defensive Lineman) Christian Barmore (back), (Wideout) Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), (Center) Garrett Bradbury (hip), (Linebacker) K’Lavon Chaisson (ankle), (Cornerback) Marcus Jones (elbow), and the aforementioned Henderson (knee) and Stevenson (toe) to name but a few. Looking ahead, the Patriots will travel to Cincinnati next weekend to visit the struggling Bengals, before returning to Foxborough for an appearance on Monday Night Football against the Giants.