9:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Oregon -23.5, Total: 45.5
The latest installment of Friday night lights takes us to the Pacific Northwest where the (No. 9) Oregon Ducks look to bounce back after a close call in Iowa City, playing host to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who in turn are well-rested following their bye week. Now in his ninth season at Minnesota (6-3, 4-2 in BIG 10), (Head Coach) P.J. Fleck is successfully navigating through a campaign that many predicted would see his program take a step backward. Following an 8-5 finish and their fourth consecutive postseason appearance, the 44-year-old was faced with filling a wealth of holes along the roster and the coaching staff, including the departures of (Defensive Coordinator) Corey Hetherman, (Quarterback) Max Brosmer, and three different starters along the Offensive Line, including Aireontae Ersery, a second-round pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Fleck decided to stay within the building to replace Hetherman, elevating (Safeties/Defensive Pass Game Coordinator) Danny Collins, while initially dipping into the Transfer Portal to fill the void at QB, before eventually riding with (Redshirt Freshman) Drake Lindsay. The result has been a team that has statistically been only marginally better than their opposition; the Golden Gophers are a mere +2.2 in points per game and +1.5 total yards thus far, including -0.1 through the air and +1.7 on the ground, with a turnover margin of +2. A stat line like that screams .500, so how in the hell is this team 6-3, you ask? Well, Fleck has continued to prove excellent at managing a game, particularly when they are too close to call, with three of their victories coming by one possession, including their latest offering, a 23-20 overtime triumph over Michigan State. After building a 10-0 halftime lead, the pendulum of momentum swung in the opposite direction as the Spartans ran off seventeen unanswered points to take the lead with just 1:52 left in regulation. Starting from his own 35-yard line, Lindsay completed five consecutive throws before the hosts benefitted greatly from recovering their own fumble following yet another completion at their foe’s 8-yard line. A pass interference on the defense allowed them to set up shot just outside of the end zone, where Lindsay opted to take it in himself for the tying score. In OT, the visitors were forced to settle for a 36-yard field goal after incurring a 15-yard penalty on the opening possession, teeing up Fleck’s troops for the victory, which Lindsay secured with a second rushing touchdown to earn bowl eligibility for another season. When it was all said and done, Minnesota was outgained by a wide margin (467-301), particularly through the air where they were burned for 311 yards, but Collins’ unit stiffened in the red zone, while MSU missed a pair of field goals in regulation, leaving the door open for Lindsay & Co. The young QB was 26-of-39 passing for just 197 yards, while (Redshirt Freshman Tailback) Fame Ijeboi rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown. Getting back to the defense, the Gophers wreaked havoc at the line of scrimmage with a dozen tackles for loss and SEVEN sacks, 1.5 of which coming courtesy of (Junior Defensive Lineman) Anthony Smith, who has been a consistently disruptive force this Fall. Smith (pictured below) leads the BIG 10 with a career-high 8.5 sacks while matching his personal-best 11.5 tackles for loss.
From a betting perspective, Minnesota may be 6-3 straight-up but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (2-6-1), parlaying to a net loss of 5.09 units, which is the worst deficit of any team within the BIG 10 this Fall. Since splitting their first two games on that latter front, this is a group that has covered only one of their past seven outings, which was a 24-6 upset over Nebraska back on October 17th (+6.5). Since arriving in Minneapolis in 2017, Fleck is now 64-42 SU and 52-45-6 ATS overall, including 19-20 ATS away from Huntington Bank Stadium, 24-20 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 12-5 ATS coming off a bye week, 30-24 ATS following a win, 36-36-1 ATS versus all opposition residing within the BIG 10. Furthermore, have handled themselves well in these Friday night showdowns, covering four in a row, while posting a 3-1-1 ledger ATS in their past five outings immediately after shipping 280+ passing yards, which is the case tonight. The Golden Gophers have also covered six of their last eight contests as a conference road underdog of 7+ points fresh off a SU victory, which is also the case with tonight’s trip to Eugene. However, rowing the boat could be difficult due to some trends going in the opposite direction, folks; Minny has failed to cover five straight tilts after relinquishing over 450 total yards of offense, while going 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a non-cover. Looking at this particular matchup, tonight’s meeting will be just the fifth all-time meeting between these programs on the gridiron and their first since 2003, a tightly contested 31-30 affair in the Sun Bowl. On the injury front, keep an eye on the availability of (Junior Tailback) Darius Taylor, who missed that victory over Michigan State with an undisclosed malady. Last season’s leading rusher with 986 yards and ten touchdowns, Taylor has been missed four games this term, with his 354 yards remaining just 30 yards off the team lead. Looking ahead, Minnesota will remain on the road for a trip to Evanston to battle Northwestern before returning home for the season finale against Wisconsin, whom they bested in a 24-7 victory in Madison to put a bow on last season.
Meanwhile, with a return to the BIG 10 Title Game falling further from their grasp, Oregon (8-1, 5-1 in BIG 10) will shift their focus towards securing an at-large bid in the CFP Playoff, which isn’t necessarily a given when you look at the remainder of their schedule. We’ll get into what lies ahead in a little more detail shortly, but in the meantime the primary question is whether or not these Ducks are better suited to for a lengthy postseason run than they were a year ago when they were the number one overall seed in the tournament. Now in his fourth season in Eugene, (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done a tremendous job of raising the program’s profile, flooding the roster with SEC-caliber talent, which makes sense given his pedigree at Georgia, where he not only served as Defensive Coordinator for back-to-back National Championship teams, but a major force on the recruiting front to boot. Case in point: these birds had THIRTEEN different players invited to last Spring’s NFL Draft Combine, ten of which were selected by a professional franchise, six hearing their names called on the first two days of the event. The 39-year-old continues to reload, with his latest star, (Junior Quarterback) Dante Moore, sure to be coveted by the next level when he chooses to come out. A former 5-star recruit that spent the first year of his collegiate career at UCLA, Moore (pictured below) opted to leave the trainwreck in Los Angeles and take his talents to Autzen Stadium, where he has been strutting his stuff after spending a year learning (Offensive Coordinator) Will Stein’s system behind (Heisman finalist) Dillon Gabriel. Through nine games, Moore has completed an efficient 70.5% of his throws for an average of 209.3 yards on 8.4 yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. Taller and possessing a stronger arm than his predecessor, the Ohio native has kept the offensive juggernaut rolling for Oregon, with Stein’s unit averaging 38.7 points (10th in FBS) on a ridiculously balanced 471.6 total yards, with 231.9 coming through the air and another 239.7 yards on the ground. However, the last two weeks have been tough sledding for Moore and these birds, who have been held to just 19.5 points on 354.0 total yards, with just 122.0 via the pass. A 21-7 victory over a struggling Wisconsin side was puzzling indeed, while last weekend’s narrow 18-16 win at Iowa was very nearly disastrous. Lanning’s troops did set the tone early in building a 9-0 lead beginning with a safety on their opponent’s opening possession, though struggled the rest of the way settling for a triumvirate of field goals courtesy of (Senior Kicker) Atticus Sappington, which included the game-winner from 39 yards out. After conceding a late touchdown to finally lose their lead with 1:51 left in regulation, Moore, who had struggled throughout the affair, engineered a 10-play, 54-yard drive to set up Sappington’s third FG of the day, hitting (Senior) Wideout) Malik Benson for a key 24-yard completion down the sideline with 23 seconds left to play. When it was all said and done, the young gunslinger fought through rain and wind to complete 13-of-21 passes for a mere 112 yards and an interception, though the ground game carried the load with 261 rushing yards 36 carries, led by (Senior Tailback) Noah Whittington 118 yards. Lanning’s defense was strong throughout the afternoon, relinquishing just 239 total yards to the Hawkeyes, forcing a pair fumbles, both of which were caused by (Freshman Defensive Back) Brandon Finney.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may be a stellar 8-1 straight-up, but they too haven’t come remotely close to being as rewarding against the spread (5-4), equating to a net loss of 0.36 units thus far. This is a team that has really struggled in that latter regard of late, failing to cover three of their past four outings following a strong 4-1 start ATS, which includes that aforementioned escape from Iowa last weekend (-4.5). Since arriving in Eugene in 2022, Lanning is now 43-7 SU and 28-18-1 ATS overall, including 14-8 ATS at Autzen Stadium, 26-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 24-25 ATS following a win, and 20-15 ATS versus conference opposition, be it the BIG 10 or the Pac-12 before it. Furthermore, his troops are 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games immediately after racking up 200+ rushing yards, while also covering eleven of their past fourteen contests preceding a showdown with (longtime rival) USC, whom they will face next weekend. As we touched upon earlier, this is just the fifth all-time meeting between these programs, with the Ducks trailing the series 1-3 SU, their lone win coming in the 1999 Sun Bowl (24-20). This was the game that put (former QB) Joey Harrington on the map, folks, with the then-sophomore completing 20-of-43 passes for 232 yards and the game-winning touchdown with just 1:32 left in regulation, while rushing for another two scores to boot. On the injury front, the most significant absence is that of (Offensive Lineman) Alex Harkey, a senior transfer from Texas State and starter of eight games thus far, who is out indefinitely with a lower leg malady. Looking ahead, Oregon will close out the regular season against a pair of old Pac-12 rivals; the Ducks will welcome (No. ) USC for a crucial showdown at Autzen Stadium next weekend, before crossing paths with Washington in Seattle for the finale, whom they hammered in a 49-21 affair last Fall.