12:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Notre Dame -13.5, Total: 54.5
The race for the CFP Playoff is heating up in its final leg, as the (No. 10) Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to bolster their ledger against one of the hottest teams in the country, the (No. 24) Pittsburgh Panthers, who have settled into stellar form after making a change at Quarterback. For a team that came oh so close to winning their first national title since 1988, it would be hard to imagine the following campaign starting in worse fashion, as Notre Dame (7-2) dropped their first two games against stiff competition. Indeed, meeting defeat at the hands of a pair of ranked sides in the form of Miami (24-27) and Texas A&M (40-41) is far from an ideal way to kick of a season, but that is precisely what happened to the Fighting Irish, who were suddenly looked like a team in transition. (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman opted against returning to the Transfer Portal for a veteran QB, instead rolling with (Redshirt Freshman) C.J. Carr, which was always going to feature a bit of a learning curve. However, while the underclassman performed well beyond his years, it would be Freeman’s defense that stumbled out of the gates, shipping 32.7 points on an untenable 398.7 total yards through the first three games (1-2). The pass defense was particularly poor during this stretch, relinquishing 289.3 yards through the air on 8.11 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Thankfully, this unit would round back into form during a 56-13 drubbing of Arkansas, stabilizing the Irish moving forward; since that successful venture to Fayetteville, (new Defensive Coordinator) Chris Ash’s troops have held all but one of their past six foes below 20 points, yielding an average of 11.8 points on 303.0 total yards, including 203.8 versus the pass, with four touchdown passes in comparison to THIRTEEN interceptions. It has also helped that the ground game has returned to form as well, bringing a healthy balance with 211.2 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry during this run. The Backfield of Jermeiyah Love (988 yards, 13 TD) and Jadarian Price (568 yards, 9 TD) is arguably the most dynamic tandem in the FBS, with the former looking like himself after a relatively slow start. After rushing for 1,125 yards and seventeen touchdowns last Fall, Love (pictured below) was a bit sluggish out of his breaks with an average of 85.3 yards and five touchdowns through the first four games, but since then has been far more effective with 129.4 yards on 7.4 yards per carry and eight scores. The Senior continued to run wild in last weekend’s 49-10 victory over Navy, needing just thirteen carries to reach 94 yards and two scores, highlighted by a 48-yard jaunt to the end zone on the opening possession of the second half. When it was all said and done, Notre Dame outgained the visitors 502-228 in total yards, including 253-22 through the air, where the aforementioned Carr was surgical with 218 yards and three touchdowns on 13-of-16 passing. (Virginia transfer) Malachi Fields hauled in four receptions for 97 yards, while (Sophomore Linebacker) Jaiden Ausberry totaled eight tackles, two for loss, a sack, and a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame may be 7-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been close to as rewarding against the spread (4-5), equating to a net loss of 1.36 units thus far. After failing to cover back-to-back games against the likes of USC (-10.5) and Boston College (-31.5), this is a team that got back into the good graces of the betting public with a relatively comfortable spread win last week against the Midshipmen (-30.5). Since arriving in South Bend three years ago, Freeman is now 40-11 SU and 33-17 ATS overall, including 11-5 away from home, 28-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 8-4 ATS as a road favorite, and 24-11 ATS following a SU win. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their past ten road ventures, while utterly dominating ACC competition with an 18-4 ledger ATS. Looking at this particular matchup, the Fighting Irish have dominated the all-time series against Pittsburgh (51-21-1 SU), including four consecutive victories dating back to 2015, covering each of them along the way. Interestingly, the road team has covered nine of the last thirteen encounters (9-3-1 ATS), which includes a 5-2 record ATS for ND when traveling to Western Pennsylvania. They last crossed paths in two years ago in a one-sided 58-7 drubbing in South Bend, an affair that was every bit of a blowout as the final score would suggest. The hosts got things started quickly with an 82-yard punt return to the house midway through the first quarter, beginning a run of 51 unanswered points, highlighted by three rushing touchdowns from (former Tailback) Audric Estime. Freeman’s charges found a variety of ways to breach the end zone on this day, for in addition to that opening punt return, the Irish also scored touchdowns via a 43-yard interception return followed immediately by a 41-yard fumble return in the third period. When it was all said and done, the Irish outgained the Panthers 535-255 in total yards, including 155-53 on the ground, and racked up a season high FIVE takeaways. Estime led the way with 114 rushing yards, while the young tandem of Love and Price combined for another 71 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on eleven touches. (Former Safety) Xavier Watts accounted for two of those turnovers with a pair of interceptions. On the injury front, Freeman has a largely healthy team on his hands as the regular season winds down. Looking ahead, Notre Dame will return to South Bend to play host to a reeling Syracuse side who has been utterly decimated at QB, before making the long trip westward to Paolo Alto to battle another struggling team, Stanford, whom they annihilated in a 49-7 drubbing last Fall.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (7-2, 5-1 in ACC) is also on a quite a tear, rebounding from a 2-game losing streak of their own to string together five consecutive victories. Interestingly, this current surge has coincided with a change at QB, where (longtime Head Coach) Pat Narduzzi benched the incumbent Eli Holstein after throwing five interceptions through the first four games (2-2), in favor of (True Freshman) Mason Heintschel, which has completely transformed the Panthers into a contender within the ACC. In the six games that have passed since the switch, the offense is averaging a prolific 40.0 points on 445.8 total yards, including 303.8 yards through the air, with a far healthier 12-6 TD-INT ratio. To his credit, Heintschel has performed well beyond his years, completing 62.2% of his throws for 1,058 yards on 8.9 yards per attempt, with eleven scores opposed to six picks, while also playing an underrated role in the ground game with 143 rushing yards and another score. Narduzzi made a point of bolstering the Offensive Line during the offseason, signing a pair of mammoth transfers at Tackle, with Jeff Persi (via Michigan) and Kendall Stanley (via Charlotte) creating optimal conditions for a young QB to grow. As a result, this has been the highest-scoring offense that he has had since 2021 (39.3 points per game), which was coincidentally the last time that these cats had won a conference championship. There really has been no shortage of weapons in the passing game for Heintschel to utilize, with nine different targets logging over 100 receiving yards thus far, including four with 250+ yards, chief among them (Senior Wideout) Raphael Williams. The former San Diego State transfer sits just one reception off the team lead (36) with 525 and six touchdowns, including a score in Pitt’s 35-20 victory over Stanford from two weeks ago. This one actually saw the Panthers fall behind 10-7 in the first quarter, only to put their foot on the gas and outscore the Cardinal 28-14 the rest of the way. Heintschel overcame a pair of interceptions with three passing touchdowns, completing 23-of-38 throws for 304 yards, marking his fourth time cracking the 300-yard threshold since taking over as the starter. Williams and fellow Receiver, Kenny Johnson combined for eight catches, 108 yards and a touchdown apiece, while (Freshman Tailback) Ja’Kyrian Turner produced arguably the most productive rushing performance for an offense that hasn’t impressed in that department this season, churning out 127 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, the hosts compensated for their teammates’ sloppy showing (4 turnovers) with three takeaways of their own, all of which were interceptions of (Stanford QB) Ben Gulbranson, highlighted by a 30-yard pick-6 courtesy of (Freshman Cornerback) Shawn Lee.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with Pittsburgh thus far, who are 7-2 both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 3.45 units, which is tied for the greatest return of any team within the ACC. This is a team that has been in red-hot form of late on both fronts, winning and covering five in a row since making that aforementioned switch at QB, which includes that drubbing of the Cardinal two weeks ago (-13.5). Since arriving in Western Pennsylvania back in 2015, Narduzzi is now 79-58 SU and 67-58-2 ATS overall, including 31-29 ATS at Acrisure Stadium, 28-29 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 14-8 ATS following a bye week, 38-31 ATS coming off a SU victory, and 49-39 ATS versus all opposition residing within the ACC. Furthermore, his troops have been a near lock when operating with the benefit of rest over the past six years, covering TEN out of twelve such tilts during that span, while posting a 6-2 ledger ATS when those games are played at home. The Panthers have also covered six of their last seven home games against an adversary owning a winning road record, which is the case this afternoon. However, the month of November hasn’t been particularly kind for these cats of late, who are in the midst of a 2-5 run ATS in the final month of the schedule. As we touched upon earlier, Pitt trails Notre Dame in the all-time series by a considerable margin (21-51-1 SU), with four consecutive losses over the past decade. That aforementioned 58-7 blowout in South Bend was certainly a low point for these cats, though it should be noted that the last time that they crossed paths in Western Pennsylvania wasn’t particularly close either. Indeed, Narduzzi’s charges were dealt a 45-3 defeat in this affair from 2020, in which the hosts shipped 38 unanswered points over the final three quarters of action. Pittsburgh was once again outgained by a wide margin in total yardage (434-162), while losing the turnover battle 0-3, all of which were interceptions thrown by (former QB) Joey Yellin. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Senior Tailback) Desmond Reid, who missed the trip to Stanford due to an undisclosed malady. In six games, Reid ranks second on the team in rushing yards (266) with a pair of touchdowns, while proving to be the most reliable member of the Backfield in terms of pass-catching with seventeen receptions for 254 yards and another two scores. Looking ahead, Pitt will return to conference play for a pair of HUGE showdowns that are sure to have heavy implications on the standings, as they travel to Atlanta to battle (No. 14) Georgia Tech followed by a home date against (No. 16) Miami in the finale.