8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Eagles -2.5, Total: 46.5
Division leaders clash in primetime, as the mighty Detroit Lions travel to the City of Brotherly Love to face the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Philadelphia Eagles is what could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game. Typically, when you hear the old adage “the more things change, the more they stay the same”, it often used with a negative connotation, particularly in sports where a franchise continues to make changes to themselves though ultimately cannot change their fortunes. Thankfully for everyone in the Motor City, that notion doesn’t apply to their Lions (6-3, 1st in NFC North), who continue to be elite no matter who happens to call plays on the offensive side of the football. Coming into the campaign, the biggest storyline was how Detroit would fair after losing their Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, who would become Head Coaches in their own right. This was particularly a concern on offense, where Ben Johnson was the proverbial belle of the ball, after cultivating an attack that ranked in the top-5 in points scored and total offense in each of the previous three seasons. However, after a slow start in the opener, these cats quickly regained their form under (new Offensive Coordinator) John Morton, averaging a whopping 34.8 points through the first five weeks of action, which is the highest-scoring start to a campaign in franchise history. Now, after a 1-2 stretch in which the offense came back down to Earth a bit, (Head Coach) Dan Campbell has opted to assume playcalling duties himself leading to unsurprising results in last weekend’s 44-22 romp over the Commanders. While he may look like a Defensive Lineman, people seem to forget that Campbell (pictured below) was a longtime Tight End during his playing days, who shifted to the coaching end of the spectrum where he would spend many years coaching that same position as a member of Sean Payton’s coaching staff in New Orleans (2016-2020). Basically, what we are trying to say is that this guy knows himself some ball, which was more than evident in his team’s trip to Landover where they looked as impressive as ever. The Lions outgained Washington 546-288 in total yards, including 226-93 on the ground, with a 30 first downs opposed to fourteen for the hosts. Their dynamic Backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery showed everyone why they continue to be the top rushing tandem in the NFL, with the former ripping off 142 172 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns on just eighteen touches, while the latter added 71 rushing yards of his own on fifteen carries. (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jared Goff played well too, completing an efficient 25-of-33 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns, with (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown (5 catches, 58 yards) and (fellow Receiver) Jameson Williams (6 catches, 119 yards) each hauling in a score. This blowout could have been a lot worse than it was, folks, as the visitors did settle for three field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Jake Bates, two of which came within 30 yards. Granted, all this production came at the expense of the thirtieth-ranked defense in the league, so it wasn’t completely surprising that Detroit was so effective with Campbell calling the plays, though tonight’s battle with the Eagles should serve as a more accurate test to ascertain their potential with the big fella holding the play sheet.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Lions thus far, who are 6-3 both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.45 units. This is a team that has covered the spread in each of their six victories, doing so with relative ease in last weekend’s trip to Landover (-8.5). Since arriving in the Motor City in 2021, Campbell is 47-33-1 SU and 55-24-2 ATS overall, including 22-8 ATS away from Ford Field, 13-6 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 25-13 ATS following a win, 13-3 ATS after scoring 35+ points in the previous game, and 28-12 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered SIXTEEN of their last nineteen outings when coming off a non-division affair and facing a foe with a winning record, while in the midst of a 6-0 run ATS as underdogs against a plus-.666 adversary, and 13-2 ATS over their past fifteen conference road games, with each of those trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise 9-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football, including 3-6 ATS as a road dog and 2-7 ATS versus an opponent fresh off of SUATS victory, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Detroit trails the all-time series with Philadelphia 16-19-2 SU, though they have held the advantage of late with four wins in their past seven encounters, covering four out of the last five along the way. Interestingly, the final score has gone over the total in NINE consecutive contests, including each of the past four at Lincoln Financial Field. They last crossed paths in the 2022 season opener, a 38-35 defeat at Ford Field in which the hosts very nearly rallied back from a 21-7 deficit to pull the upset. The Lions outscored the Eagles 28-17 over the final 32:00 of action, finishing the afternoon with 386 total yards, including 181 yards on the ground, converting a healthy 9-of-14 third downs along the way. Unfortunately, the difference in the game was its lone turnover, which was a 27-yard pick-6 of Goff late in the first half, otherwise spoiling what was a strong performance from the veteran QB (21-of-37, 215 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT). Speaking of the Cal product, he is just 1-4 in his career against Philly, completing 66.1% of his throws for an average of 248.4 yards on 6.57 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. As for his ledger ATS, he is now 76-53 ATS overall, including 39-27 ATS on the road, 29-22 ATS as a dog, 38-33 ATS following a win, 37-23 ATS versus an adversary coming off a win of their own, and 50-36 ATS against non-division foes. On the injury front, Campbell & Co have yet to truly put that early landslide of injuries behind them, with the defense still down plenty of contributors; (Defensive Backs) Kahlil Dorsey (concussion), Ennis Rakestraw (shoulder), and D.J. Reed (hamstring) continues to languish on Injured Reserve, while (Safety) Kerby Jospeh (knee) and (Linebacker) Malcolm Rodriguez (knee) are both expected to miss tonight’s trip to the City of Brotherly Love due to various maladies. Along the Offensive Line, (veteran Tackle) Taylor Decker continues to manage an ongoing shoulder issue, while (All-Pro Tackle) Penei Sewell has been limited throughout the week of practice due to an ailing shoulder of his own. Looking ahead, the Lions will return to Ford Field for a 3-game homestand beginning with a visit from the fading Giants, followed by a rematch against the Packers, who bested them in the season opener (27-13).
Meanwhile, the Eagles (7-2, 1st in NFC East) have not enjoyed the harmonious offensive playcalling and production of their opponent tonight, but to their credit have nonetheless found ways to win plenty of games, winning each of their last three contests to sit atop the NFC. Indeed, if you only paid attention to the media, you would think that Philadelphia was circling the drain in the NFC East, what with a stagnant offense drawing criticism from within and without on a weekly basis. For a fourth consecutive season, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni has a different Offensive Coordinator under his wing, with Kevin Patullo the latest playcaller to direct this talented group of players. The logic was sound, folks, as Sirianni favored continuity in promoting Patullo, who had spent the previous four seasons as the team’s Pass-Game Coordinator. With that being said, the attack has been disjointed and rather predictable, averaging 24.2 points per game (12th Overall) on just 303.2 total yards (23rd Overall), including 206.7 yards through the air (25th Overall) on 6.5 net yards per attempt (12th Overall), and 111.6 yards on the ground (21st Overall) via 4.0 yards per carry (25th Overall), which are all significant dropoffs from a year ago. So, what in the name of Randall Cunningham has happened to Philly, you ask? Well, the rushing attack certainly hasn’t been as effective, certainly after a campaign in which (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Saquon Barkley rushed for a staggering 2,005 yards. This is a team that churned out 179.3 yards (2nd Overall) on 4.9 yards per attempt (5th Overall) last Fall behind an Offensive Line that routinely dominated the line of scrimmage. Fast forward to the present, and the O-Line hasn’t been nearly as strong due in large part to injuries (which we will get into shortly). As for Barkley (pictured below), the 28-year-old has seen his production cut nearly in half, averaging just 64.3 yards on 3.9 yards per carry, continuing the trend of regression that has historically dogged RBs immediately after crossing the 2,000-yard threshold. And then there is the passing game, where (reigning Super Bowl MVP) Jalen Hurts remains as divisive a quarterback in the NFL. Don’t get us wrong, this guy does a lot of really good things, particularly when it comes to ball security (16 TD, 1 INT), while his mobility has helped sustain drives, but a lot of inconsistency within this offense comes down to Hurts (pictured below). After all, this is a unit that ranks twenty-seventh in third down percentage (34.9%) but is the most effective in the NFL when it comes to the red zone (81.0%), which further underscores the divide. As for (3-time Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown, the situation continues to deteriorate on a weekly basis as the 28-year-old has consistently bemoaned his role within the offense. After posting three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his tenure in Philadelphia, Brown has logged just 31 receptions on 54 targets for 408 yards and three touchdowns, with Monday night’s performance in Green Bay prompting the Ole Miss product to label this season as a $%^&show from his perspective. Granted, the climate was frigid in that 10-7 affair at Lambeau Field, with both offenses struggling immensely to make headway in a game that was every bit the defensive struggle that the final score would suggest. Neither team managed to crack 300 total yards, though credit the birds for making the necessary plays to earn the victory. With points a premium, (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio’s unit came up big in the red zone, forcing and recovering a fumble with the hosts threatening just before halftime to keep the game scoreless heading into intermission, before stopping them twice on fourth down in the second half. As for Hurts, he fought through consistent pressure throughout the affair, eventually finding (veteran Receiver) DeVonta Smith for the decisive 36-yard touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. When it was all said and done, the QB finished with 183 yards and that score on 15-of-26 throws, while rushing for another 27 yards on five carries, with Barkley amassing 101 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches. Smith led the receivers with 69 yards on four catches, while Brown, in his first game back from injury, could muster just two receptions on three targets for thirteen yards. That win continued Philly’s mastery in close games, posting a 29-4 record since 2022 in those decided by one score, which is the best ledger in the NFL.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 7-2 straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread thus far (6-3), resulting in a net profit of 2.45 units. This has been a streaky team in that regard, folks, stringing together two different runs consisting of three consecutive covers, including this recent stretch against the Vikings (-2.5), Giants (-7.5), and Packers (+1). Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, Sirianni is now 61-25 SU and 44-39-3 ATS overall, including 21-19 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 33-28 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 32-23 ATS following a win, and 30-24 ATS all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered six straight games immediately after relegating an opponent below ten points, six in a row against an opponent with a winning record and are in the midst of a 7-1 run ATS at home and facing a foe with a winning road ledger. Philadelphia has also relished playing at this stage of the season, covering each of their last four outings in the month of November, though it should be noted that they have proven to be wary when competing on a short week, covering just five of their last eighteen tilts following an appearance on Monday Night Football. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 27-25 ATS on Sunday nights, including 10-5 ATS as a home favorite, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the birds own a 19-16-2 edge in the all-time series against the Lions, winning each of the last two encounters, including the most recent which was that aforementioned 38-35 shootout at Ford Field three years ago. This was an interesting season opener for a variety of reasons, folks, for it kicked off what would end up being a dominant run for Philly that lasted all the way to Super Bowl LVII, where they came up painfully short of besting the Chiefs. Sirianni’s charges jumped all over Detroit in the early stages of this showdown, racing out to a 21-7 lead before the hosts got one back just before halftime. When it was all said and done, the Eagles did what they wanted offensively, outgaining the home side 455-386 in total yards, outrushing them 214-181, converting 10-of-17 third downs and 2-of-3 fourth downs, while forcing the lone turnover of the afternoon, that pick-6 coming courtesy of (veteran Cornerback) James Bradberry. It was a strong performance from Hurts, who completed 18-of-32 passes for 243 yards and rushed for another 90 yards and a touchdown on seventeen carries, while Brown reeled in ten of thirteen targets for 155 yards in his debut with the birds. Getting back to his QB, Hurts is unbeaten in two career meetings with the cats, completing 58.7% of his throws for 173.0 yards on 7.43 net yards per attempt, with zero passing scores or interceptions, though rushing 161 yards on 24 carries and that previously mentioned touchdown. As for his CV ATS, Hurts is now 40-40 ATS overall, including 20-19 ATS at home, 31-30 ATS as a favorite, 32-24 ATS following a win, 24-17 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, 22-18 ATS versus an adversary coming off a win of their own, and 31-26 ATS against non-division foes, with his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (18-14 ATS). On the injury front, Sirianni & Co are definitely the healthier side in tonight’s showdown, but we should keep an eye on the Offensive Line, which was not at full strength in Monday night’s bloodbath at Lambeau. (Starting Center) Cam Jurgens missed the game with a bulky knee, while (All-Pro Tackle) Lane Johnson was in and out of the lineup after suffering a sprained ankle, though it should be noted that he did in fact finish the game. Looking ahead, the Eagles will make their annual pilgrimage to AT&T Stadium to face the Cowboys next weekend in a rematch of the season opener, a 24-20 victory that was delayed for nearly two hours due to a storm.