8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Cowboys -3.5, Total: 49.5
Week 11 comes to a close with a pair of teams desperate to build some positive momentum after dropping multiple games in a row, as the Dallas Cowboys travel to Sin City fresh off their bye to visit the Last Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football from Allegiant Stadium. While 2025 has proven to be nothing short of a disappointing campaign for the Cowboys (3-5-1, 2nd in NFC East) it has been far from surprising for just about anyone could have seen this coming after the offseason that they had. Following an injury-ravaged 2024, Dallas parted ways with (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy and after a lengthy coaching search opted to replace him with (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Schottenheimer. While this move was made with continuity in mind with designs on keeping a high-powered attack rolling, this team’s flaws festered not on the offensive side of the football, but on a defense that ranked next-to-last in points allowed (27.5) and total yards relinquished (355.2). With that in mind, (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones decided to allocate even more resources to his offense with a trade for (former Steelers Wideout) George Pickens, while shocking the sporting world by trading away (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parson’s in a deal with the Packers struck just a week before the opener. While Jones recouped first-round picks in 2026 and 2027, the move ensured that the defense would be among the league’s worst; through nine games, Big D has ranked thirty-first in both points allowed (30.8) and total defense (397.4), twenty-ninth against the pass (254.4) and twenty-eighth versus the run (143.0), along with twenty-seventh in takeaways (7), dead-last on third down (52.6%), and twenty-ninth in the red zone (69.4%). In an attempt to stop the bleeding, Jones doubled down at the Trade Deadline, acquiring reinforcements in the form of (Linebacker) Logan Wilson and (Defensive Tackle) Quinnen Williams via separate deals with the Bengals and Jets respectively. Wilson, a 6-year veteran who had fallen out favor in Cincinnati, played a lot of good football for the Bengals, whom he was a 4-year starter for logging nine interceptions from 2021 to 2023. As for Williams (pictured below), the third overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft is coming off a three consecutive Pro-Bowls in New York, though also fell out of favor with his former coaching staff where he was perceived as a poor fit for the new defensive scheme. Now, giving up a second-round pick in 2026 and a first-rounder in 2027 is a steep price for the Alabama product, but if he and Wilson can stabilize the spine of (Defensive Coordinator) Matt Eberflus’s unit, then it will be coin well spent, particularly considering how poorly they performed in their most recent outing, a 27-27 loss at home on Monday Night Football to the struggling Cardinals. Against a struggling opponent that had lost five consecutive contests and was trotting out a backup Quarterback to boot, the Cowboys were completely unable to slow the Redbirds down, shipping all 27 points on the visitor’s first six drives, including a pair of possessions that featured 10+ plays and 60+ yards. The hosts simply couldn’t get off the field against Arizona, who converted 7-of-13 third downs and possessed the rock for 33:20 of game time. Conversely, Schottenheimer’s offense was wasteful and mistake-prone, committing three turnovers, including a failed attempt on fourth down that killed a 10-play, 55-yard drive on the opening possession of the night as (veteran QB) Dak Prescott was sacked at the opponent’s 4-yard line. That really set the tone folks, as the home side would lose a pair of fumbles, miss a field goal, and turn the ball over on downs once more, while Dak was intercepted on his final attempt deep downfield. When it was all said and done, the gunslinger was 24-of-39 passing for 250 yards with a touchdown and that pick, while rushing for another 34 yards to boot, but was also sacked five times and pressured on a dozen occasions, equating to taking heat on a quarter of his throws.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may be 3-5-1 straight-up thus far, but they have been marginally better against the spread (4-5), equating to a net loss of 1.36 units. This is a team that has failed to cover three of their last four outings overall, including each of the last two with the most recent being that aforementioned defeat at home to the Cardinals two weeks ago (-3.5). In his first season at the leading man in Arlington, Schottenheimer is now 3-5-1 SU and 4-5 ATS overall, including 2-3 ATS away from AT&T Stadium, 1-4 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-2 ATS following a loss, and 2-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops have really played to the level of their competition, posting a 1-4 ledger ATS against opponents with a win percentage south of .500. Dallas has covered eight of their last nine contests immediately after suffering an outright loss as a favorite, while going 1-5 ATS following a bye week over the past six seasons, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to Monday Night Football with a middling 37-37 record ATS in such games, including 10-9 ATS as a road favorites. Of course, when we last saw them, they were embarrassed on MNF at home against those Redbirds, who beat them outright at AT&T Stadium. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cowboys trail the all-time series with the Raiders 6-7 SU and are 1-3-1 ATS over the past five encounters. When they last crossed paths, it was a spirited 36-33 affair on Thanksgiving Day 2021, which required overtime to crown a victor. Trailing 24-13 midway through the third quarter, Dallas struck back with a 100-yard kickoff return to the house, cutting the deficit to five points. Later in the fourth period, Prescott would find (former Tight End) Dalton Schultz for the game-tying touchdown with 2:54 left in regulation, with both sides trading field goals to force OT. The hosts would get the opening possession, but simply couldn’t do anything with it as Dak threw three consecutive incompletions leading to a punt, which would be the last time that he would touch the football as Las Vegas marched downfield, aided greatly by a crucial 33-yard Pass Interference on the defense, eventually setting up the game-winner from Daniel Carlson. When it was all said and done, the two sides combined for a whopping 946 total yards along with 28 penalties (14 apiece) for a loss of 276 yards. Prescott was 32-of-47 passing for 375 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Speaking of the 3-time Pro-Bowler, he has split two all-time meetings with the Raiders, tossing as many touchdowns as interceptions (2), while rushing for another. On Monday nights, he is now 5-2 SU with seventeen total scores and five turnovers. As for his career ledger ATS, Dak is now 74-65 ATS overall, including 35-32 ATS on the road, 51-44 ATS as a favorite, 25-23 ATS following a loss, 6-7 ATS after suffering back-to-back defeats, 38-24 ATS against a foe fresh off a loss of their own, and 39-52 ATS versus non-division adversaries, with his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (22-16 ATS). On the injury front, Schottenheimer should see his defense receive a sorely needed boost in the form of (Sophomore Linebacker) DeMarvion Overshown and (Rookie Cornerback) Shavon Revel, who are expected to make their long-awaited debuts after being laid up with various maladies. (Veteran Safety) Donovan Wilson (elbow) and (young Offensive Lineman) Tyler Smith (knee) are both listed as questionable, while (veteran Safety) Malik Hooker (toe) could make his return from Injured Reserve as well after a limited week of practice. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will host the Eagles in their annual visit to Arlington next weekend, which is a rematch from the season opener in Philadelphia, a 24-20 defeat that was suspended for nearly two hours in the second half due to storms.
Meanwhile, as disappointing as their opponent has been on defense, the Raiders (2-7, 4th in AFC West) have been equally as so on the offensive side of the football, where they have been one of the very worst sides in the NFL this Fall. Last season, Las Vegas ranked twenty-ninth in points scored (18.2) and twenty-seventh in total yards (303.1) leading to a 4-13 finish that prompted yet another overhaul to the organization. (Principal Owner) Mark Davis handed the decision-making reins to (Minority Owner) Tom Brady (yes, that Tom Brady), who effectively hired (General Manager) John Spytek and (Head Coach) Pete Carroll) marking the third different GM/HC combo in as many years. Interestingly, most of the moves made throughout the offseason were geared towards getting the attack up and running, particularly with the additions of (Offensive Coordinator) Chip Kelly, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith, and (Rookie Tailback) Ashton Jeanty. Kelly, who has plenty of NFL experience between stints leading the Eagles and 49ers, spent last season as OC for (2024 National Champions) Ohio State, while Smith, who had spent three seasons playing under Carroll in Seattle, was a personal request from the venerable HC. As for Jeanty, the sixth overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft was a Heisman finalist last Fall after nearly breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record with 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns. Coupled with (prolific Tight End) Brock Bowers, who set an NFL rookie record last season with 112 receptions for 1,194 receiving yards, this unit had all the makings of becoming a competitive group that could potentially steer the Silver & Black towards the playoffs. However, that has NOT been the case, folks, for the offense has ironically been the reason for their persistent struggles. Through nine games, the Raiders thirty-first in points (15.4) and thirtieth in total yards (272.6), twenty-seventh in passing yards (185.2) and twenty-ninth in rushing yards (87.4), along with twenty-eighth in turnovers (14) and twenty-eighth in the red zone (47.8%). So, how could a group that made so many upgrades be even worse a year later, you ask? Well, Kelly has seriously underwhelmed in his return to the NFL on a playcalling front, while Smith has been nothing short of disastrous with more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11). As for Jeanty and Bowers, the former has been consistently hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, while the latter missed a month due to a knee injury. However, anyone that has watched this team play thus far will tell you that by far and away the most glaring weakness has come int he trenches, where the Offensive Line has been a dumpster fire. Be it pass protection or run blocking, this group has struggled immensely, with injuries to key personnel (more on that in a bit) and inexperience in other positions killing them week after week. Look no further than last week’s 10-7 loss at Denver for proof. Granted, the Broncos’ defense is excellent, but in a game in which the visitor’s own defense did everything within their power to keep the affair within striking distance, it was a miserable showing by Smith & Co. Las Vegas could muster just 188 total yards and ten first downs, converting 4-of-15 third downs and their lone attempt on fourth, while incurring eleven penalties for a loss of 83 yards, with two of those flags negating touchdowns. Smith was 16-of-26 for 143 yards and an interception, suffering eleven pressures and SIX sacks, which forced him to exit the affair due to a bruised thigh that hobbled him throughout the rest of the night. Jeanty finished with 60 rushing yards and a touchdown on nineteen carries, while Bowers, in his second game back from that knee injury, was an afterthought with just one reception for 31 yards.
From a betting perspective, the Raiders may be 2-7 straight-up, but they too have been better against the spread (4-5), parlaying to an identical net loss of 1.36 units. This is a team that has begun to build some good will with bettors over the past month, covering three of their past four outings, including that aforementioned narrow loss to the Broncos eleven days ago (+9.5). In his first season leading the Silver & Black, Carroll is now 2-7 SU and 4-5 ATS overall, including 2-2 ATS at Allegiant Stadium, 3-4 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-3 ATS following a loss, and 3-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their last eight (6-1-1 ATS) tilts immediately after scoring fewer than fifteen points in the previous game, five of their past six contests after shipping less than 150 passing yards to their opponent, and seven of nine outings after throwing for less than 150 yards themselves. Las Vegas has also covered five of their last six encounters (5-0-1 ATS) with an adversary coming off a bye week, which was the case two weeks ago when they came up just short of besting the Jaguars in OT. However, this is a team that is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak ATS when coming off a rushing performance of less than 90 yards and are 1-4 ATS in games after relegating the opposition below fifteen points, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 32-26 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 5-4 ATS as a home underdog. As we covered earlier, the Raiders own a narrow advantage in the all-time series against the Cowboys (7-6 SU), snapping a 3-game losing streak with that aforementioned Thanksgiving Day shootout from four years ago. The visitors struck early in this one, folks, as (former QB) Derek Carr launched a 56-yard touchdown to DeSean Jackson, kicking off one of their more impressive offensive performances of what was a turbulent campaign, racking up 509 total yards. The key was balance attributed to a ground game that churned out 143 yards on 35 carries, leading to a commanding edge in possession (39:02). Carr finished the afternoon with 373 yards and that score on 24-of-39 passing, while (former RB) Josh Jacobs amassed 112 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 24 touches. As for their current QB, Smith has never defeated Dallas, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying, completing 23-of-41 throws for 334 yards, three touchdowns, an interception, and a rushing score in a 41-35 track meet from two years ago. On Monday nights, he is 3-7 all-time with nearly as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (9). ATS, the West Virginia product is now 42-45 ATS overall, including 22-25 ATS at home, 30-26 ATS as a dog, 26-23 ATS following a loss, 13-12 ATS coming off back-to-back defeats, 19-15 ATS versus a foe fresh off a loss themselves, and 26-30 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, the mess in the trenches claimed another body last week, folks, as (Sophomore Guard/Center) Jackson Powers-Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with due to a high ankle sprain, which is ironically the same malady that has sidelined (veteran Left Tackle) Kolton Miller for the last seven weeks. Looking ahead, the Raiders will remain in Sin City next weekend as they play host to the struggling Browns, which may be the final time that Las Vegas is favored in a game this season.