8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Bills -6, Total: 43.5
Week 12 kicks off tonight in Southern Texas, where a pair of division winners look to hang on as the playoff race heats up, with the Buffalo Bills searching for consistency while the Houston Texans are forced to once again make do without their starting Quarterback. After five years reigning atop their division, it appears that the Bills (7-3, 2nd in AFC East) could very well lose their stranglehold as they continue to trail the Patriots by a single game in the standings, with New England also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. Sure, that record looks fine, folks, but things are not necessarily running smoothly in Orchard Park, where Buffalo has been a bit of a rollercoaster from week to week. Case in point: after getting revenge against (bitter rival) Kansas City following yet another heartbreaking playoff defeat, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s troops turned right around and laid one helluva egg in a 30-13 loss at Miami, in which the offense was plagued by turnovers and the defense was gashed on the ground without mercy (197 yards allowed). The latter has been the bigger ongoing issue for the Bills, who have been exploited repeatedly against the run, due in large part to an ongoing rash of injuries that has left them depleted in the defensive front seven. Through ten games, McDermott’s unit ranks next-to-last in rushing yards allowed (153.0) and yards per carry permitted (5.4), with no team shipping more rushing scores (17). Furthermore, they have shipped 180+ rushing yards on five occasions thus far, with their record in such outings standing at 3-2. Granted, this isn’t an overly large or physical team up front, which has oftentimes put them in a predicament against bigger opponents, which was the case against the Ravens (238 yards), Falcons (210 yards), and even the lowly Saints (189 yards). This is putting a lot of pressure on the offense to make the most of their possessions, with (reigning MVP) Josh Allen once again forced to carry the load. A year after accumulating 40 total touchdowns and averaging 250.7 total yards along the way, Allen (pictured below) has more or less picked back up where he left off with 28 total scores on 280.7 total yards. With that being said, he has piloted an attack that has committed three turnovers in each of their last two contests, which makes it even harder to be successful. We saw how those mistakes led to defeat in Miami, though the 29-year-old’s greatness was able to overcome them in last weekend’s 44-32 shootout at home against the Buccaneers. After tossing an interception on his opening drive, the Wyoming product got going with a short rushing touchdown followed by a 43-yard scoring strike to (Sophomore Receiver) Tyrell Shavers on the next possession. Tampa would strike back with a 43-yard rushing touchdown, only for Allen to retaliate via a 52-yard touchdown to (Backup Tailback) Ty Johnson. Clinging to a 21-20 halftime lead, the hosts conceded another rushing score immediately after intermission, but Allen was there to save them again as he found (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook for a 25-yard score. Following yet another rushing touchdown from the visitors, Allen kept the ball in his own hands and rushed for successive touchdowns, marking just the third time in NFL history that a QB passed and rushed for three touchdowns apiece, matching his virtuoso performance against the rams from last December. In the end, Buffalo outgained Tampa 414-367 in total yards despite getting trampled for 207 rushing yards by another denizen of the Sunshine State. Thankfully, McDermott’s defense helped to compensate for their teammates’ three turnovers, getting a pair of takeaways of their own, including a forced fumble leading to Allen’s final score. But, as great as their QB was, the real question is whether or not winning games in such a manner is sustainable. After all, the Bills lost the turnover battle, conceded 200+ rushing yards, and possessed the football for a mere 24:53 of game time, which is typically a recipe for failure.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 7-3 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (5-5), equating to a net loss of 0.45 units. This is a team that has finally started to find a rhythm on that front, covering three of their past four outings after a dreadful start to the campaign in which they were 2-4 ATS including four consecutive non-covers. Since arriving in Orchard Park back in 2017, McDermott is now 100-55 SU and 81-67-7 ATS overall, including 38-22 ATS away from Highmark Stadium, 52-44 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 35-25 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge, 49-44 ATS following a win, 54-41 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East, and 16-12 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points. Furthermore, his charges have covered four of their past five games in the month of November, but are also in the midst of a 1-5 run ATS following a defensive performance in which they shipped 350+ total yards, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 8-9 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including a middling 3-3 as a road favorite, while finding themselves mired within a malaise of five consecutive losses ATS in these midweek tilts when facing an adversary fresh off a SUATS victory of their own. Looking at this particular matchup, Buffalo trails the all-time series with Houston 5-7 SU, which includes a 1-4 ledger ATS at NRG Stadium, while the home team has covered six of the past seven encounters. When they crossed paths last Fall, Allen & Co’s comeback bid came up just short in a 23-20 defeat. The Bills fell behind 20-3 early in the third quarter, only to respond seventeen unanswered points to draw level with 3:18 left in regulation. Unfortunately, the visitors would go 3 & out deep in their own territory after forcing a punt, with the Texans eventually sinking the game-winner from 59 yards out. When it was all said and done, Buffalo was outgained by a wide margin in total yards (276-425), struggling mightily on third down throughout the affair (3-of-14), but managed to get back in things via a pair of takeaways in the fourth quarter. Allen was just 9-of-30 passing for 131 yards, but found (then-Rookie Wideout) Keon Coleman for a 49-yard touchdown, while rushing for another 54 yards on four carries. The aforementioned Cook amassed 99 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches, rushing for a short touchdown to begin their rally. Getting back to the reigning MVP, he has struggled against Houston throughout his career with just one win in four tries, including his first postseason appearance, a 22-19 overtime loss back in 2020. As for his ledger on TNF, he is a perfect 8-0 with a completion percentage of 73.4% with 242.5 yards per game on 7.58 net yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while rushing for another 38.5 yards per contest and four more scores. All-time, Allen is now 68-56 ATS overall, including 32-25 ATS on the road, 49-42 ATS as a favorite, 29-19 ATS with revenge, 45-40 ATS following a win, 31-28 ATS against a foe fresh off a win of their own, and 48-35 ATS opposite of non-division adversaries, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (20-14 ATS). On the injury front, McDermott’s defense has been dealing with mounting injuries throughout the campaign, with the likes of starters such as (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver (bicep) and (Safety) Taylor Rapp (knee) sitting on Injured Reserve, while (Defensive Backs) Christian Benford (groin) and Taron Johnson (groin), (Defensive Linemen) Joey Bosa (wrist) and Harrison Phillips (wrist), and (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard (ankle) have all been limited throughout the short week of practice and have thus been listed as questionable for tonight’s quick turnaround. Furthermore, (young Tight End) Dalton Kincaid continues to deal with a lingering hamstring strain and will mis a second consecutive contest. Looking ahead, the Bills will remain on the road for a trip to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers, before returning home to host the struggling Bengals, which is their only home game until December 28th when the face the reigning Super Bowl Champion, Eagles.
Meanwhile, after winning back-to-back division titles, this season has been nothing short of a taxing one for the Texans (5-5, 3rd in AFC South), who have struggled to put it altogether due in large part to a renovated Offensive Line. Indeed, despite finishing 10-7 for a second successive season, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio identified a major flaw within the trenches, one that threatened to stagnate the growth of their young Quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Following a watershed rookie campaign in which the second overall pick earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, the Ohio State product took a step backward last Fall in exhibiting regression across the board. Stroud went from averaging a league-leading 273.9 passing yards to just 219.2, from 7.03 net yards per attempt to 5.68, and threw twelve interceptions in comparison to five as a rookie. Furthermore, he was sacked fourteen more times despite playing in just two more games, while his pressure percentage increased exponentially from 22.0% to 28.0%. And it is with that said that Ryans and Caserio rolled up their sleeves and attacked the issue, bringing in not only FIVE new starters on the Offensive Line, but parting ways with (former Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik and replacing him with Nick Caley, who had ties with Caserio from their time together in New England. Unfortunately, even with ten games in the books this transition has proven to be very much a work in progress; the Texans have been downright jarring to watch at times on this side of the football in 2025, ranking twenty-first in points scored (22.0), nineteenth in total offense (350.4), sixteenth via the pass (242.8) and twenty-third via the rush (107.6), along with twenty-sixth on third down (36.0%) and next-to-last in the red zone (43.3%). Those figures are a bit misleading folks, for this is an attack that has popped off against poor competition, scoring 70 points in back-to-back games against the struggling Titans and a decimated Ravens team, while also hanging 26 on the similarly ravaged 49ers. Against tougher foes such as the Rams, Bucs, Jags, Seahawks, and Broncos, they’ve been relegated to a dreadful 14.4 points on 264.8 total yards with six turnovers and an abysmal third down rate of 20.0%. And that was with Stroud on the field, folks, which hasn’t been the case for two weeks now as he suffered a concussion midway through the bloodbath against Denver. So, how in the hell is this team 5-5, you ask? Well, thankfully for everyone in the organization, the defense has been arguably the best in the league. That isn’t hyperbole, folks, as the Texans rank first overall in points allowed (16.3) and total defense (258.1), third against both the pass (171.0) and the rush (87.1), fifth in takeaways (16), and third on third down (34.4%). Ryans and Caserio have ensured that this unit is stocked with plenty of talent, led by (veteran Edge) Danielle Hunter (pictured below) and (shutdown Cornerback) Derek Stingley Jr, with the former leading the team with nine sacks, fifteen QB hits, and 21 pressures. It has also helped immensely that (Backup QB) Davis Mills has been able to steady the ship with Stroud on the mend. Indeed, the fourth-year veteran has led successive rallies in each of the past two weeks, leading a 26-point fourth quarter including a 14-yard rushing score to draw within one point before a 32-yard fumble return to the house sealed the deal against Jacksonville two weeks ago, followed by a solid 2-minute drill to set up the game-winning field goal in Tennessee. Tied at 13-13 after the hosts finally cracked the code and breached the end zone with 1:35 left in regulation, Mills calmly engineered a 9-play, 48-yard drive which included three completions for a total of 37 yards to set up (Backup Kicker) Matthew Wright’s 35-yard field goal, which split the uprights.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may be a middling 5-5 straight-up thus far, but they too haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (4-6), returning a net loss of 2.36 units. With that being said, this is a team that has rounded into better form following a cold start consisting of three successive SUATS defeats, covering four of their past seven outings, but failed to do so in last weekend’s comeback over the lowly Titans (-5.5). Since returning to the franchise that drafted him about two decades ago, Ryans is now 27-21 SU and 22-25-1 ATS overall, including 11-12 ATS at NRG Stadium, 11-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-8 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 10-14 ATS following a win, and 14-16 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered four of their past five tilts immediately after being held below 90 rushing yards in the previous game, which is the case tonight. On the flipside, they are in the midst of a 1-6 run ATS after relegating an opponent below 250 total yards and are 2-10 ATS as conference underdogs of less than ten points against a team with a win percentage of at least .700, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 5-9 ATS all-time on Thursday Night Football, including 2-2 as a home dog. As we covered earlier, Houston owns the edge in the all-time series against the Bills, due in large part to three victories over their last four encounters going back to 2018, with the most recent being that aforementioned 23-20 affair from last October. Stroud & Co stormed out of the gates in this one, folks, building an early 20-3 advantage largely due to their passing attack, highlighted by a 67-yard scoring strike to (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Nico Collins. Unfortunately, the hosts were forced to settle for a pair of long field goals from (veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn, who would later drill a third, game-winning kick from a whopping 59 yards out. This was a tale of two halves, as Houston racked up 230 total yards before intermission, only to muster 155 yards the rest of the way. Stroud finished with 311 passing yards, a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble on 28-of-38 throws, while (unheralded Tailback) Dare Ogunbowale amassed 87 yards from scrimmage on 21 touches. The Wisconsin product made the play that ultimately saved this game from heading to overtime, taking a short screen pass from his QB five yards with just two seconds left on the clock, better positioning Fairbairn for the game-winner. With the aforementioned Mills starting once again in place of the concussed Stroud, it is worth mentioning that the Stanford product is 0-2 as a starter on TNF, completing 63.0% of his throws for an average of 243.5 yards on 6.72 net yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns and an interception, while taking four sacks in each outing. Furthermore, he has a wealth of starting experience despite not being very successful, posting a 7-22-1 record as a starting QB since making his debut in 2021. On the injury front, Ryans can expect to be without Stroud for one more game as he continues to go through concussion protocol, while the defense could be without a number of contributors who were all limited throughout the short practice week, including (Linebacker) Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), (Edge) Will Anderson (ankle), (Defensive Lineman) Denico Autry (knee), and (Safety) Jalen Pitre (concussion). If that wasn’t enough, Collins and (veteran Tight End) Dalton Schultz have also been limited with ankle and shoulder maladies respectively. Looking ahead, this is the beginning of a rather rough portion of the schedule for the Texans who will hit the road to battle the Colts and Chiefs in successive weeks, before returning home to play host to the struggling Cardinals and lowly Raiders.