8:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Florida State -4.5, Total: 61.5
A pair of disappointing 5-5 teams in search of bowl eligibility renew acquaintances tonight in Raleigh, as the Florida State Seminoles battle the North Carolina State Wolfpack from Carter-Finley Stadium. Bowl eligibility. This is what it has come to, folks, for Florida State (2-5 in ACC), who have seen a blistering start to the campaign plummet into a familiar malaise. Indeed, this is a team that upset (No. 8) Alabama in a seismic 31-17 victory in the season opener, reaching as high seventh in the AP Poll on the strength of an impressive 3-0 start in which they had outscored the opposition by a whopping 144 points. Unfortunately, that triumph over the Crimson Tide would fade into distant memory as the Seminoles would go on to lose their first FOUR conference contests on their way to a 2-5 ledger in ACC play. So, what in the name of Bobby Bowden has happened in Tallahassee, you ask? Well, after last Fall’s miserable 2-10 finish, (embattled Head Coach) Mike Norvell pulled out all the stops to get the ‘Noles back to where they belong, hitting the Transfer Portal hard with sixteen Division I transfers, while also reuniting with colleagues Gus Malzahn and Herb Hand, whom he hired as Offensive Coordinator and Offensive Line Coach respectively. When these guys were together at Tulsa back in 2007, they led the Golden Hurricane to an NCAA-record campaign featuring a 5,000-yard passer, three 1,000-yard receivers, and a 1,000-yard rusher. Chief among the transfers was (former Boston College Quarterback) Tommy Castellanos, who was recruited by and played for Malzahn at UCF three years ago. Unfortunately, all of this familiarity hasn’t led to the desired success for a program that maintains lofty expectations every Fall. FSU’s biggest issue is that they haven’t found a way to win close games, with their record in games decided by one score standing at damning 0-4. Turnovers have played no small role in these woes, with NINE of their thirteen total turnovers coming in their five losses, equating to a differential of -4. Mistakes have plagued the offense in these tilts, with a lot of that coming down to Castellanos, who has thrown five of his six interceptions in defeat, while the ground game has lost its legs along the way, churning out 135.0 fewer rushing yards per game. On the opposite side of the football, the defense hasn’t been much better in these games either, shipping 102.4 more total yards, including 75.4 more against the pass with opposing QBs completing 15% more of their passes in defeat. Of course, with so many high-profile programs across the country writing expensive checks to part ways with their HCs, Norvell’s (pictured below) job security has been a hot topic in the sunshine state. Reportedly, the 44-year-old is due a staggering $58.7 million if the Seminoles opted to fire him, due in large part to the extension that he signed at the conclusion of last season. While other schools have certainly bitten a larger bullet, it remains to be seen how Florida State will proceed in the coming months. In the meantime, their football team bested Virginia Tech, one of those aforementioned schools to fire their HC, in a 34-14 affair on Senior Day at Doak Campbell Stadium last weekend. The hosts outgained the Hokies 431-363 in total yards and won the turnover battle 2-0, while playing their cleanest game of the campaign with only one penalty for a loss of five yards. The ‘Noles rushed for 237 yards and three touchdowns, two of which came courtesy of Castellanos, who accounted for 45 yards on seven carries and passed for another 189 yards on 12-of-24 completions. (USC transfer) Duce Robinson hauled in six receptions for 134 yards and a 50-yard touchdown late in the first half, while (Houston Transfer) Jeremiah Wilson picked off his third pass of the season.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get when it comes to Florida State thus far, who are 5-5 both straight-up and against the spread, covering in outright victory and failing to do so in defeat, parlaying to a net loss of 1.36 units. This is a team that has really fallen off after their torrid 3-0 SUATS start, going 2-5 SUATS over the past seven outings, though they did handle their business in last weekend’s romp over the Hokies (-14). Since arriving in Tallahassee back in 2020, Norvell is now 38-32 SU and 33-32 ATS overall, including 13-13 ATS away from Doak Campbell Stadium (0-3 ATS this Fall), 19-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 20-14 ATS following a win, and 21-26 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the ACC. Furthermore, his troops are 6-4 ATS as a road favorite during his tenure, though have lost outright twice in that role this season. The Seminoles have also covered just one of their last eight weekday affairs, coming up short in a 46-38 overtime (-7) shootout on a Friday night back in last September. They are also in the midst of a 4-game losing streak SUATS, while posting a 1-4-1 ledger ATS in their past six outings following a tilt in which they were gashed for 200+ rushing yards, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, tonight’s showdown in Raleigh marks the forty-fourth all-time meeting between these programs on the gridiron, with the ‘Noles owning a 27-16 SU advantage, though the series has NOT been in their favor of late with just one victory in their last five encounters (2-3 ATS). When they last crossed paths, it was a tightly-contested 19-17 affair from three years ago in which FSU blew a 17-3 halftime edge to meet defeat in Raleigh. Norvell’s charges outgained the Wolfpack on 387-307 in total yards, but self-destructed down the stretch with a pair of turnovers, both of which were interceptions of (former QB) Jordan Travis, while the team as a whole drew the ire of the officials on ten occasions for a loss of 100 yards in penalties. Despite struggling through the air (15-of-30, 130 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), Travis was difficult to stop on the ground, leading the visitors with 108 rushing yards on just seven carries. On the injury front, the Seminoles are largely healthy with no significant injuries to speak of in this, the final chapter of their conference schedule. Looking ahead, Florida State will remain on the road, though they won’t have to travel far at all as they battle struggling Florida in next weekend’s season finale in Gainesville, which pending the outcome of tonight’s affair could be their last opportunity to secure bowl eligibility.
Meanwhile, NC State (5-5, 2-4 in ACC) didn’t come into this season with nearly as much pressure or expectations as their opponent tonight, but that doesn’t make this current campaign any more disappointing for the faithful in Raleigh. Over his thirteen seasons with the program, (Head Coach) Dave Doeren has fielded a largely competitive team, topping out at eight to nine wins seven times since 2014, while finishing the year ranked in the AP Poll five times in the last eight years. However, last Fall saw his Wolfpack suffer their first losing season (6-7) since 2019, which had many in the Bible Belt wondering how the 53-year-old would bounce back with a more experienced team. The Pack returned sixteen starters this season, including (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Bailey, who endured a baptism by fire in 2024, starting the final eleven games in which he threw for 2,413 yards and seventeen touchdowns along with 279 rushing yards and five more scores. The angular, 6’6″ Bailey (pictured below) spent much of the offseason putting on weight and getting stronger, with that work showing off this Fall in completing an efficient 69.4% of his throws for 2,531 yards on 8.0 yards per attempt with nineteen touchdowns opposed to nine touchdowns. While he hasn’t played as much of a role in the ground game with just 148 rushing yards on 66 carries, the Hollywood, Florida native has still been a threat with his legs in the red zone, matching last year’s ledger with five rushing scores. He was particularly impressive in a 48-36 upset of previously unbeaten (No. 8) Georgia Tech, amassing 374 total yards and three touchdowns, including a 55-yard strike late in the third quarter to stretch the lead to fifteen points. However, more often than not, the defense has let him down, as North Carolina State has shipped an average of 31.6 points per game (118th in FBS) on 440.4 total yards, including 299.9 yards against the pass. They’ve been even worse in defeat, relinquishing 39.6 points on 483.8 total yards, with 315.6 yards coming through the air. So, what happens when the attack can’t keep the chains moving, you ask? Look no further than last weekend’s 41-7 drubbing at the hands of (No. 16) Miami, folks. This one was as one-sided as that score would lead you to believe, as the Wolfpack couldn’t get on the scoreboard until Bailey strolled into the end zone with just over two minutes left in regulation. Early mistakes crushed the young QB, who was victimized on a 60-yard interception return to the house late in the first quarter, only to be picked off on the ensuing possession as well. When it was all said and done, Doeren’s charges were embarrassed 581-143 in total yardage, including 214-23 on the ground. Bailey finished the afternoon with just 120 yards on 17-of-30 passing and that 10-yard score, but that was about it for the visiting side.
From a betting perspective, NC State may be 5-5 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (4-6), parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. This is a team that is just 2-5 SUATS over their past seven outings following a 2-1 start, which includes last weekend’s bludgeoning at the hands of the Hurricanes last weekend (+16). In his thirteen seasons in Raleigh, Doeren is now 92-70 SU and 68-80-3 ATS overall, including a middling 37-37 ATS at Carter-Finley Stadium, 28-39 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 28-29 ATS following a loss, and 48-55 ATS against all opposition residing within the ACC. Furthermore, his troops are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six outings immediately after shipping 40+ points, but have handled themselves much better in the month of November where they are in the midst of a 9-2 run ATS. The Wolfpack have also been a relatively resilient group with five covers in their past seven games following an outright loss, while going unbeaten ATS (7-0-1) in eight tilts as a conference home dog of three or more points, which includes that upset of the Yellow Jackets from three weeks ago. Interestingly, North Carolina State has also been a lock after they’ve crossed paths with Miami, covering SEVEN consecutive contests following a battle with the Canes. As we touched upon earlier, the Pack may trail the all-time series with Florida State by a considerable margin, but they have held the edge of late with four victories in five meetings, while certainly holding the advantage ATS; State is 17-4-1 ATS over their last 22 encounters, including 9-1-1 in those games played in Raleigh. Doeren & Co came into that aforementioned 19-17 victory ranked fourteenth overall, but you wouldn’t have known given how slow they started; the hosts trailed the Seminoles 17-3 halftime, though buckled down and shutout the visitors post intermission, with three field goals courtesy of (former Kicker) Christopher Dunn, including the game-winner from 27 yards proving to be decisive. (Former QB) Devin Leary had a tough day at the office with 130 yards, a touchdown, and an interception on just 10-of-21 passing, while (former RB) Jordan Houston carried the attack with 131 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches. (Former DB) Shyheim Battle and (current Indiana DB) Devan Boykin had a pair of interceptions to boot. On the injury front, the Wolfpack also have a clean bill of health with no significant injuries. Looking ahead, NC State will close out the regular season with a visit from (bitter rival) North Carolina, whom they have bested in four straight meetings, including last Fall’s 35-30 in Chapel Hill.