3:30 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Oregon -10.5, Total: 59
If there was ever an example of the new collegiate landscape following realignment (and the demise of the PAC-12), its two most successful programs meet for the time as members of the BIG 10, as the (No. 16) USC Trojans make the trip to the Pacific Northwest to battle the (No. 8) Oregon Ducks in a matchup ripe with Playoff implications. It has been an interesting 2-year spell for USC (8-2, 6-1 in BIG 10) under (Head Coach) Lincoln Riley, who has had to not only remodel the program during their transition to a more competitive league, but has also been forced to adjust his approach as well. Needless to say, this had the potential of backfiring in spectacular fashion for the 42-year-old, who has already enjoyed a vast amount of success for a coach so young. By the time he turned 40, Riley (pictured below) had earned more success than any other skipper in college football history; from 2017 to 2022 between bridging tenures with the Trojans and Oklahoma beforehand, he posted a ridiculous 66-13 record (.835), including four BIG XII Championships and three trips to the Playoff, while developing three Heisman-winning Quarterbacks along the way. However, after an 11-3 finish in his first season with Southern Cal, any notions that he would quickly return the program to its perch atop the FBS were dispelled as the Trojans stumbled to an 8-5 end to their time within the PAC-12, before struggling to an uneven 7-6 run in their first voyage through the BIG 10. Logistical issues and getting acquainted with new rivals aside, Riley came to the revelation that he needed to change his way of doing business on Saturdays in order to thrive in a new conference with two points of emphasis revealed: a shambolic defense and their overall physicality on offense. Addressing the first, he pried away (Defensive Coordinator) D’Anton Lynn from his post at UCLA, which has seen the defense relinquish fewer than 400.0 total yards per game for the first time since 2020, shipping 344.1 yards, including 198.3 versus the pass with 24 sacks and sixteen takeaways. As for the second, it was apparent from the onset of their venture through the BIG 10 that USC would need to get larger and more physical in the trenches, which meant Riley needed to recruit a different type of player than he had in years past, while also bringing some more balance to his playcalling. Again, the numbers tell the story, folks, as the Trojans are churning out 190.8 rushing yards per contest (27th in FBS), which also stands as their best since he came to town. Of course, this shift hasn’t deterred this unit from scoring plenty of points, ranking tenth in the FBS (38.2), while accumulating a healthy 488.9 total yards per game (6th in FBS). Case in point: the old Trojans wouldn’t have survived last weekend’s rain-soaked 26-21 affair against Iowa, who muscled their way to a 21-7 advantage late in the first half. A 40-yard field goal cut the deficit to eleven points by halftime, with another on the opening drive of the third quarter trimming it further to one possession. (Junior QB) Jayden Maiava would then lead a 9-play, 82-yard drive culminating in a 12-yard strike to (Junior Wideout) Makai Lemon, though the ensuing 2-point attempt proved unsuccessful. Thankfully, Lynn’s defense came up with the play of the game, a miraculous interception courtesy of (Freshman Defensive Tackle) Jahkeem Stewart that deflected off an opponent’s foot into the big fella’s arms, giving the hosts possession at midfield. Six plays later and (Sophomore Tailback) Bryan Jackson breached the end zone on a short run, granting the home side their first lead of the day. Then it came back to the defense, which stopped the Hawkeyes on a 4th & 6 at the 29-yard line, ending the affair. Again, this is a game that they wouldn’t have won as previously constructed, as Southern Cal outmuscled a team that is traditionally among the toughest in the country in that regard. Maiava finished with 254 yards and a touchdown on an efficient 23-of-32 passing, while Lemon, the BIG 10’s leading receiver, reeled in ten receptions for 153 yards.
From a betting perspective, USC may be 8-2 straight-up thus far, but they have been far less rewarding against the spread (5-5), parlaying to a net loss of 0.45 units. This is a team that has seemed to have found their rhythm after suffering a 3-game losing streak ATS, covering three of their last five outings despite failing to do so in last weekend’s visit from the Hawkeyes (-6.5). Since arriving in Los Angeles in 2022, Riley is now 34-16 SU and a middling 25-25 ATS overall, including 6-13 ATS away from the Coliseum, 7-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 14-17 ATS following a win, and 14-21 ATS versus all conference opponents, be they hailing from the BIG 10 or PAC-12 before it. Furthermore, his troops are just 1-10 ATS after stringing together back-to-back wins since 2023, while covering just five of their past eighteen contests immediately following a SU victory. The Trojans are also in the midst of a 2-5 run ATS in conference play, along with 1-6 ATS over their past seven games played on fieldturf. However, it is not all doom and gloom for Southern Cal, who have been a resilient side under this regime, covering all but two of their last eleven tilts when coming off a non-cover, which is the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, there is plenty of history between these programs, with USC holding a commanding 39-22-2 edge in the all-time series. However, that has not been the case of late as the Trojans have dropped four of the past five meetings, including the lone encounter coming under Riley’s watch, a 36-27 affair from Autzen Stadium two years ago. This one really wasn’t as close as that final score would lead you to believe, folks, as the visitors were outgained 552-379 in total yards and lost the turnover battle 1-0, only making the outcome appear respectable after scoring a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit from 22 points to nine. (Former QB and 2022 Heisman) Caleb Williams was just 19-of-34 passing for 291 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another to score boot, but was also sacked three times and pressured on countless other snaps. This one also stood as a major reason as to why Riley would overhaul his defensive coaching staff in the following offseason, as his charges continuously fell victim to big plays from the Ducks, shipping a pair of early touchdowns traveling 75+ yards. On the injury front, Southern Cal has been without much of their depth in the Backfield for numerous weeks now, with (Tailbacks) Waymond Jordan (ankle) and Eli Sanders (knee), with the former expected to miss a fifth consecutive contest and the latter out for the remainder of the campaign. Looking ahead, USC will return to the Coliseum to play host to their bitter rivals, UCLA, next weekend, whom they are 3-2 against over the past five years, including last Fall’s 19-13 victory at the Rose Bowl.
Meanwhile, by the time that the PAC-12 met its demise, Oregon (9-1, 6-1 in BIG 10) had established themselves as the kings of the west coast, carrying that momentum over into their initial run through a new league in winning the BIG 10 last Fall. Indeed, (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done a tremendous job of leveling up the Ducks during his four years in Eugene, bringing all of the recruiting tricks that he had honed during his successful time at Georgia, where he coordinated a dominant defense to back-to-back National Championships. Last year alone they sent thirteen players to the NFL’s Scouting Combine while a whopping EIGHTEEN have been drafted in the past two years alone. He has also worked the Transfer Portal like few in the country have, putting the school’s sizable financial resources to good use in routinely bringing in stars at premium positions, such as (2024 Eleventh Overall Pick) Bo Nix and (2024 Heisman finalist) Dillion Gabriel at Quarterback in successive years. The latest gem to relocate to the Pacific Northwest is (UCLA transfer) Dante Moore, a former 5-star recruit who appears to be the next Ducks QB to be playing on Sundays, be it next Fall or the following one. With ten games in the books, Moore has completed an efficient 72.8% of his throws for 2,190 yards on 8.6 yards per attempt, with 21 touchdowns in comparison to five interceptions, piloting an attack that has been on par with that of their opponent this afternoon. Oregon ranks seventh in the FBS in points scored (39.0) on 475.4 total yards (10th in FBS) in ruthlessly balanced fashion, rushing for 233.6 yards per game (6th in FBS) and passing for another 241.8 yards (56th in FBS). Furthermore, Lanning (pictured below) has assembled a strong defense as well, limiting foes to just 13.7 points (6th in FBS) on 235.4 total yards, with eighteen sacks and thirteen takeaways. However, if there is one criticism of this team, it has been their schedule, which has left many pundits wondering just how good these Ducks really are. Thus far, they have faced just two ranked opponents, besting (then-No. 3) Penn State in a 30-24 overtime thriller in a not-so-Happy Valley before getting humbled at home by (No. 7) Indiana in a 30-20 affair two weeks later. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that those Nittany Lions were a team on the verge of crisis, crashing out of the rankings and firing their HC roughly a month later, while the Hoosiers have been nothing short of dominant as one of just three unbeatens left standing. So, the question begs: who have Lanning & Co beaten? Their nine victories have come against adversaries with a combined record of 41-51 (.445), with just three of them owning a winning record themselves, one of which is Big Skye affiliate Montana State. Against Iowa, who as we covered earlier gave USC fits last weekend, it took a late drive through windy, rainy conditions, highlighted by an absolute dart from Moore down the sideline to set up the game-winning field goal to escape Kinnick Stadium with an 18-16 victory. However, they would have no such issues in last Friday night’s 42-13 bludgeoning of Minnesota; the Ducks outgained the visitors 510-200 in total yards, including 179-62 on the ground, with 27 first downs to just thirteen for their opponent. Moore amassed 306 yards and a pair of touchdowns on a surgical 27-of-30 passing, while (Tailbacks) Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington each ripped off a touchdown run of 39+ yards.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may be 9-1 straight-up thus far, but they too haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (6-4), though they have netted a greater profit than their opponent this afternoon (+1.36 units). This is a team that has gone fairly cold on that front after a strong 4-1 start ATS, covering two of their last five outings, including last Friday night’s romp over the Gophers (-26.5). Since arriving in Eugene in 2022, Lanning is now a stellar 44-7 SU and 29-18-1 ATS overall, including 15-8 ATS at Autzen Stadium, 27-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 25-25 ATS following a win, and 21-15 ATS versus all conference opponents, be they hailing from the BIG 10 or the PAC-12 before it. Furthermore, his troops have covered four of their last five contests immediately after shipping fewer than 100 rushing yards in the previous game, while enjoying a 10-4 run ATS following a performance in which they amassed over 450 total yards of offense, which is precisely the case this afternoon. As we covered earlier, this rivalry with the Trojans may be one-sided in its totality, but the momentum has certainly swung in favor of the Ducks of late, with four victories coming over their past five encounters. Lanning is 1-0 in this series, with his charges laying a 36-27 beating on Southern Cal in that aforementioned meeting from two years ago. Again, this one wasn’t nearly as close as that score would suggest, as the hosts outgained USC by a whopping 173 total yards. (Former QB) Bo Nix balled out with 412 yards and four touchdowns on 23-of-31 passing, while (former RB) Bucky Irving amassed 161 yards from scrimmage and a 19-yard rushing score early in the final stanza. (Wideouts) Tez Johnson and Troy Franklin were running free throughout the affair, folks, with the former hauling in seven receptions for 126 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while the latter needed just two catches to log 147 yards and an 84-yard touchdown. The only blemish came in the form of thirteen penalties for a loss of 120 yards, which certainly had a hand in keeping this one from being an outright blowout. On the injury front, keep an eye on the Receiving Corps, where there a number of playmakers dealing with various ailments. (Freshman sensation) Dakorian Moore Looking ahead, Oregon will wrap up the regular season with a trip to Seattle to face another former PAC-12 rival, Washington, whom they hammered in a 49-21 affair last Fall, snapping a 3-game losing streak against the Huskies.