1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Chiefs -3.5, Total: 50.5
AFC powerhouses collide this afternoon at Arrowhead, though it is safe to say that this isn’t how we expected this matchup to shape up, as the Kansas City Chiefs are desperate to build some momentum to stay within the playoff race, while the surging Indianapolis Colts are instead gunning for the number one overall seed in the conference. That is correct, ladies and gentlemen, for it is not the Colts (8-2, 1st in AFC South) that come into today’s showdown as postseason hopefuls, for this team has emerged as a legitimate contender for a Lombardi Trophy. Needless to say, it would have been outlandish to hear that spoken aloud coming into this season, particularly given that this is a team that had missed the playoffs in each of the previous four years. In fact, since the shocking retirement of (former Quarterback) Andrew Luck, a malaise had settled in over Indianapolis, who haven’t won a playoff game since 2018. Of course, much of the criticism of the franchise had been centered around their selection and (lack of) development of Anthony Richardson, whom they selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Injuries caused by reckless play really stunted his growth on the gridiron, while various reports about his work ethic off of it created real cause for concern for (General Manager) Chris Ballard and (Head Coach) Shane Steichen, who were facing a make-or-break campaign with their jobs on the line. And it is with that said that the Colts brought in (veteran QB) Daniel Jones, first as an insurance policy for Richardson, though the 28-year-old would eventually win the job in Training Camp, which really came as a surprise to nobody. As a result, there has been a seismic ripple effect felt throughout the offense, which has quickly evolved into one of the NFL’s most potent. Through ten games, Indy ranks first overall in both points scored (32.1) and total yards (396.9), including third in passing (251.6) and rushing (145.3), along with eighth on third down (42.0%) and third in the red zone (68.2%). To his credit, Jones (pictured below) has become the latest high-profile former first-round QB to enjoy a renaissance with a change of scenery, benefitting from Steichen’s creative playcalling and a talented supporting cast that was just waiting to be unlocked by the right signal-caller. It has been a season of career-highs for the Duke product, completing 69.9% of his throws for 265.9 yards per game on 7.37 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, with that last figure a bit misleading given that three of them came in a single game. Furthermore, he has remained an effective weapon with his legs in the red zone, rushing for five more scores to boot. It is amazing what kind of a difference a QB can make, but then again, just ask (veteran Tailback) Jonathan Taylor, who has been REBORN in 2025. The former All-Pro leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,139), touchdowns (15), and yards per attempt (6.0) thus far, with his total yardage eclipsing that of the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley, who cracked the 2,000-yard threshold last Fall, through ten games. When we last saw the Colts, they took their high-powered act overseas and proved victorious over the Falcons in a 31-25 overtime affair in Berlin, Germany. Despite outgaining their opponent by a healthy margin (519-290) and possessing the football for a commanding 40:20 of game time, Indianapolis shot themselves in the foot on a number of occasions, settling for some easy field goals after stalling out in the red zone, committing a pair of turnovers, and getting stopped twice on fourth down. However, the ground game was paramount in this one, folks, as Steichen’s troops churned out a season-high 323 rushing yards on 41 attempts, led by none other than Taylor (pictured below alongside Jones) who erupted for 286 yards from scrimmage, highlighted by an 83-yard house call late in the fourth quarter, before scoring the game-winning rushing touchdown in OT.
From a betting perspective, the Colts are 8-2 straight-up and may not be as rewarding against the spread (6-4), but they’ve still returned a profit of 1.45 units thus far. This is a team that has cooled off a bit following their torrid start, failing to cover each of their last two outings, which could be a bit of byproduct of the oddsmakers shifting their favor following six covers in their first eight outings. Since arriving in Indianapolis back in 2023, Steichen is now 25-19 SU and 24-20 ATS overall, including 10-11 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium, 12-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-1 ATS coming off a bye week, 12-11 ATS following a win, and 14-16 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their last seven meetings with AFC opponents and are in the midst of a 10-3 stretch ATS in games in which the spread is between a range of -3/+3 points, including 3-1 this season. However, Indy has also generally gone cold at this juncture of the schedule, failing to cover all but one of their past five contests in the month of November, including 0-2 ATS thus far in 2025. Looking at this particular matchup, the Colts own an 18-10 SU edge in the all-time series between these franchises, winning each of the last two meetings, while covering the spread in five of the past seven encounters and six of the last eight that have taken place in Kansas City. The most recent crossing of paths, a 20-17 affair from 2022, saw Indianapolis rally back from a 17-13 deficit in the fourth quarter, as (former QB) Matt Ryan engineered a marathon-like 16-play, 76-yard drive that bled over eight minutes off the clock, culminating in a 12-yard touchdown strike to (Tight End) Jelani Woods. While the former MVP’s brief time at Lucas Oil was far from successful, this was easily one of his finer moments, as he completed 27-of-37 throws for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns despite suffering five sacks and losing a fumble. Taylor was productive as well, amassing 91 yards from scrimmage on 24 touches, while (former Safety) Rodney McLeod’s late interception of (Chiefs QB) Patrick Mahomes (much more on him shortly) set up Ryan’s game-winning drive. Getting back to their current Quarterback, Jones has only ever faced Kansas City once, coming up short in a 20-17 defeat back in 2021 at Arrowhead, though it wasn’t for a lack of trying; the former 6th Overall Pick completed 22-of-32 passes for 222 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an interception on the opening drive of the affair. On the injury front, Steichen & Co have certainly overcome their share of injuries, particularly in the form of (Defensive Tackle) DeForest Buckner (neck) and (Cornerback) Charvarius Ward (concussion), who are currently on Injured Reserve as two rather significant pieces of their defense. Furthermore, (Linebacker) Samson Ebukam (knee) and (Edge) Tyquan Lewis (groin) are both out with various maladies, while (veteran Cornerback) Kenny Moore has been limited due to lingering soreness in his Achilles, which is a major reason as to why Steichen and Ballard opted to go all-in and ship a pair of first-round picks to the Jets in exchange for (2-time All-Pro) Sauce Gardner at the Trade Deadline. Looking ahead, the Colts will receive their annual visit from the Texans next week, before crossing paths with another division rival, the Jaguars in a showdown that could very well see them clinch the AFC South.
Meanwhile, instead of pushing for home field advantage like they have so often done in the past, the Chiefs (5-5, 3rd in AFC West) instead find themselves simply fighting for a Wild Card, which is something that has been unheard of during the Patrick Mahomes era. Indeed, this is a franchise that has claimed each of the last NINE division titles, seven of which have come with Mahomes (pictured below) as the starting Quarterback, posting an insane 90-26 record (.775) along the way, winning FIVE AFC Championships and three Super Bowls to boot. However, Kansas City finds themselves meandering around .500, which must come as a shock to many, though one has to wonder if this regression was inevitable after so many years of excellence. Think about it, folks: as their adversaries continue to bolster their ranks to overtake them, which is precisely what has happened within the AFC West, this is a roster that seems to have fallen victim to age and attrition despite their best efforts to rekindle the high-flying early years of their dynasty. It has now been about three years that we have heard that (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach want to get back to airing it out, with premium draft picks spent on vertical threats and blindside protectors all in an attempt to get the best out of Mahomes. However, this remains an attack that thrives much better in an equal-opportunity short-to-intermediate passing game, though even that hasn’t been a sure thing anymore given a middling rushing attack that ranks sixteenth (100.0) and an aging (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce. Again, Father Time comes for us all and the 36-year-old is no exception even if he is leading the team with 631 receiving yards on fifty catches, which has been more out of necessity than design. (Third-year Wideout) Rashee Rice missed the first six games serving a suspension for an endless lineup of off-field antics, while (Sophomore Speedster) Xavier Worthy was knocked out of the first few weeks of action after suffering a separated shoulder in a collision with Kelce (pictured below alongside Mahomes). With all that being said, the biggest difference between this incarnation of the Chiefs and their predecessor has been their sudden ineptitude in close games coming off the heels of a season defined by their mastery in such contests. Last year, Kansas City was a ridiculous 12-0 in one-score affairs, including the playoffs, but this season have failed to capture victory in FIVE such outings, serving as concrete proof of the proverbial pendulum swinging away from them. This was the case in last weekend’s narrow 22-19 loss at division-leading Denver. In a sloppy game that was bogged down by plenty of penalties from both sides, the visitors simply couldn’t kill off the game after building a 19-16 lead, going three-and-out on their final two drives, while the Broncos nailed a pair of cold-blooded field goals, the first from 54 yards out and the game-winner from 35 yards. The play of the game came on a 3rd & 15 from the host’s 21-yard line, where instead of forcing a decisive fourth down, the visitors conceded a 20-yard completion to keep the drive alive. When it was all said and done, Reid’s charges outgained their foe 342-311 in total yardage, but were wholly undone by their own mistakes with ten penalties for a loss of 147 yards. Simply put, it is difficult enough trying to move the ball against Denver’s vaunted defense, but losing nearly a field and a half in penalty yards is nothing short of a recipe for defeat.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Chiefs thus far, who are 5-5 straight-up and against the spread, equating to a net loss of 0.45 units. This has been a difficult team to get a handle on, folks, for they will fail to cover successive games only to beat the spread in consecutive contests, coming into this afternoon’s tilt on a 2-game losing streak ATS. In his thirteen years with the franchise, Reid is now 166-66 SU and 124-104-4 ATS overall, including 58-58 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium, 92-86 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 31-25 ATS following a loss, and 81-69 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 4-game winning streak ATS at home, but have covered just one of their last nine outings immediately following a rushing performance of fewer than 90 yards, while currently finding themselves in the midst of a 11-5 run ATS against adversaries with a winning record. As we covered earlier, Kansas City trails the all-time series with Indianapolis and have struggled against them of late as well, dropping each of their past two meetings in which they have only scored a combined 30 points. That aforementioned 20-17 loss at Lucas Oil from three years back really was a dissertation in self-destruction by the Chiefs, who would go on to claim the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy later that Winter. In this case, they clung to a 17-13 lead throughout the second half, until an absolutely disastrous fourth quarter in which they turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions, eventually leading to Indy’s lengthy game-winning drive. First, there was dysfunction on what should have been a relatively easy 41-yard field goal, with a bad snap leading to an attempted touchdown pass by the holder, Tommy Townsend, that predictably missed its mark. Then, Mahomes drove the visitors down to his foe’s 16-yard line only to come up short and settle for another field goal, though this one was missed by (veteran Kicker) Matt Amendola. Lastly, after falling behind by three points, Mahomes’ last gasp from midfield was intercepted, ending a thoroughly frustrating day at the office. The 2-time MVP finished the game with 262 yards, a touchdown and that pick on 20-of-35 passing, while Kelce hauled in that lone score, totaling four catches on eight targets for 58 yards. (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo’s unit got after the aforementioned Ryan with five sacks and eleven pressures, while stopping the home side twice on fourth down, though ultimately could not get off the field on that final drive. Getting back to Mahomes, he is just 1-2 against the Colts in his career, completing just 60.0% of his passes for an average of 287.0 yards on 6.93 net yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns and one interception, rushing for another score to boot, though that lone win certainly carried more weight seeing as it was his first playoff victory back in 2018. As for his ledger ATS, the Texas Tech product is now 71-61 ATS overall, including 38-34 ATS at home, 60-58 ATS as a favorite, 17-11 ATS following a loss, a perfect 6-0 after back-to-back defeats, 38-35 ATS against an adversary fresh from victory, and 56-40 ATS opposite non-division foes. On the injury front, this is a team that is getting healthier, particularly after finally getting (Rookie Left Tackle) Josh Simmons back in the fold for the first time since early October, though it is unlikely that they will have (veteran Tailback) Isiah Pacheco today as he continues to rehab a sore knee that has sidelined him for the past three weeks. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will travel to Arlington to face the Cowboys next weekend, before returning home to host the Texans in a rematch of last year’s 23-14 affair in the division round of the playoffs.