8:15 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: 49ers -7, Total: 49.5
Week Twelve reaches its conclusion out west, as the upstart Carolina Panthers continue to make a surprise push for a Wild Card in this primetime showdown with the San Francisco 49ers, who might be as healthy as they have been since the season opener. We would like to welcome the Panthers (6-5, 2nd in NFC South) back to the primetime spectacle of Monday Night Football after a 2-year hiatus, and thankfully for everyone that may be viewing this game, we are happy to inform you that they are finally worth a watch. Indeed, this has been a franchise that has been lost in the proverbial wilderness for quite some time, folks, suffering through SEVEN consecutive losing campaigns, consisting of SIX different head coaches along the way (three of which were interims). However, there is reason to believe that (much maligned Owner) David Tepper has finally figured it out, as (Head Coach) Dave Canales & Co have shown a wealth of growth under the second-year skipper. After a disappointing first year in charge (5-12), the 44-year-old has presided over a group that has already surpassed their previous win total and now have a shot of not only getting into the playoffs by way of a wild card, but perhaps even surpassing the Buccaneers for the division lead. So, what in the name of Jake Delhomme has happened in Charlotte, you ask? Well, the offense as a whole remains a work in progress, but the run game has been one of the best in the NFL this Fall, churning out 127.0 yards per game (7th Overall), while the defense has quietly become a solid unit, due in large part to being stout in the red zone (52.9%, 9th Overall). Of course, all anyone wants to talk about when it comes to Carolina is the progress of (third-year Quarterback) Bryce Young, whom the team traded up to select first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The 2022 Heisman has been a polarizing player for sure, mainly due to his lack of size and stature at his position, which has made for an inconsistent development thus far. However, there have been signs of promise under Canales, with the 24-year-old posting career-highs in completion percentage (62.7%), yards per game (196.2), net yards per attempt (5.47), touchdown percentage (4.5%), and passer rating (86.0). While those numbers won’t turn any heads at this point, it is reflective of just how disappointing his first two seasons were, with injuries and an early benching stalling his progress. What has been impressive thus far has been his ability to execute in the clutch, posting four game-winning drives, three of which are fourth quarter comebacks. Could this be a sign of greater things to come? There has been a lot of talk of Young’s (pictured below) future with the franchise, with a major decision looming when it comes to any potential contract extension. Canales and (General Manager) Dan Morgan have yet to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, which means that he could be entering the final year of that pact in a veritable prove-it scenario. Granted, if he continues to play like he did in last weekend’s 30-27 overtime upset of the Falcons, then he very well may force their hand. After drawing first blood via a 7-yard touchdown to (Rookie Wideout) Tetairoa McMillan midway through the first quarter, he and his teammates went cold as the birds ran off 21 unanswered points. However, the visitors would strike back on the opening drive of the second half with a 36-yard strike from Young to (Receiver) Xavier Legette, followed by 34-yard field goal courtesy of (Kicker) Ryan Fitzgerald to cut the deficit to two points. Young would hit McMillan for another score followed by a successful 2-point conversion to take the lead with 1:08 left in the fourth period, but Atlanta would draw level to force OT. From there, Carolina would force a three-and-out, as Young engineered a 6-play, 60-yard drive highlighted by a HUGE 54-yard completion to (Tight End) Tommy Tremble, teeing up Fitzgerald for the game-winner from 28 yards out. When it was all said and done, these cats put together arguably their most impressive offensive performance of the season, racking up 486 total yards, 448 of which came on the right arm of Young, who completed an efficient 31-of-45 throws with three touchdowns. It was also a breakout performance from McMillan, as the Arizona product posted a career-high 130 receiving yards and two scores on eight catches.
From a betting perspective, the Panthers are a moderately surprising 6-5 straight-up, but they have been even more rewarding against the spread (7-4), equating to a net profit of 2.36 units thus far. Simply put, this is a team that has seen some serious growth in that latter regard; two years ago, they were 4-11-2 ATS, but improved to 8-9 ATS last Fall and have now covered FOURTEEN of their last 20 outings dating back to last November. Since arriving in Charlotte last season, Canales is now 11-17 SU and 15-13 ATS overall, including 7-7 ATS away from Bank of America Stadium, 15-11 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 4-5 ATS following a win, and 11-9 against all competition residing outside of the NFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered EIGHT consecutive contests after being relegated below 90 rushing yards in the previous game and are in the midst of a 6-1 run ATS against NFC opposition. However, Carolina is just 2-15 ATS immediately after scoring 28+ points, including 1-1 ATS this season, which is precisely where they find themselves tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 10-8 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 2-2 ATS as a road underdog, and have covered three of their last four appearances on MNF overall (3-0-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, these cats lead the all-time series against the Niners (13-10 SU), though have dropped each of the last two meetings, including the most recent, a 37-15 blowout in Charlotte from two years ago. This one was as one-sided as that score would suggest, folks, as the hosts were outgained 397-308 in total yards, 22-15 in first downs, and 153-64 in rushing yards. There likely isn’t much to glean from this encounter given how vastly different the Panthers were on that afternoon; the team was coached by Matt Rhule, quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield, and headlined by (All-Pro Tailback) Christian McCaffrey, who would ironically be traded to San Francisco two weeks later in one of the most notable deadline deals in NFL history. In his penultimate game with the franchise that drafted him eighth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year amassed 104 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown on 21 touches. As for their current QB, Young is making just his second career appearance on MNF and we’re sure he hopes it goes better than his first; in the second start of his career, he could muster just 153 yards and a touchdown on 22-of-33 passing, while suffering four sacks and losing a fumble in a 20-17 loss at home to the Saints. As for his ledger ATS, the Alabama product is now 16-19 ATS overall, including 7-11 ATS on the road, 18-17 ATS as a dog, 5-5 ATS following a win, 9-5 ATS versus a foe fresh off a victory of their own, and 11-13 ATS against non-division adversaries, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (7-11 ATS). On the injury front, Canales has one of the healthier teams in the league at his disposal, with just six players on Injured Reserve and no significant absences expected tonight. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get an easier next weekend for the Panthers, who will face another NFC West powerhouse, as the Rams pay them a visit before Carolina finally gets to enjoy their bye week.
Meanwhile, if the playoffs started this weekend, the 49ers (7-4, 3rd in NFC West) would be in via the final wild card, though their grip is currently a tenuous one in leading the Lions by one game and their opponent tonight by 1.5 games. With in mind, it really is remarkable that San Francisco has managed to hang on despite being absolutely decimated by injuries throughout the campaign. Indeed, it feels like there are annually two or three teams who are utterly ravaged in this regard every season, but credit to (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan & Co for persevering through it. So, how bad has it gotten in Santa Clara, you ask? Well, if you happen to name a prominent player on their roster, odds are that they have likely missed significant time. (All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner (ankle) and (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa (ACL) are both out for the season, while (veteran Wideout) Brandon Aiyuk (knee) has yet to take the field following offseason surgery. Furthermore, (Pro-Bowl Tight End) George Kittle missed five games due a strained hamstring, while (Receivers) Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall missed extended time as well. However, the most notable absence was that of their Quarterback, Borck Purdy, who has been relegated to just three starts this Fall due to various lower-leg maladies, chief among them being a sprained toe. It really has been a disappointing early return on Purdy (pictured), whom the club extended on a 5-year, $265 million contract, including a $40 million signing bonus and up to $182.5 million in total guarantees, which is not bad at all for a guy who was literally the LAST player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, playing in three games after making such an investment is NOT what Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch had in mind, folks, though that contract is the main reason as to why they were so careful with him, while the play of (Backup QB) Mac Jones helped facilitate such an approach. The fifteenth overall pick in the 2021 Draft, Jones has performed admirably in keeping this attack afloat, no doubt securing himself some suitors in free agency come Spring; the Alabama product went 5-3 as the starter with a completion percentage of 69.6% for an average of 239.0 passing yards on 6.70 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions. Of course, that job is mad easier with the aforementioned McCaffrey, who is on pace for a rare 1,000-yard rushing/receiving season. After missing all but four games a year ago, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year has been the bedrock of this attack, leading the NFL with 1,439 yards from scrimmage and eleven total touchdowns, including 121 yards from scrimmage and three total scores in last weekend’s 41-22 blowout victory of the Cardinals. This one could have been even more lopsided had the visitors not settled for three consecutive field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Eddy Pineiro between the second and third quarters, particularly since they were gifted a short field to play with on three occasions due to takeaways. Purdy was an efficient 19-of-26 passing for 200 yards and three touchdowns in his return, while Kittle reeled in six catches for 67 yards and two scores.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers have posted an inverted ledger straight-up (7-4) and against the spread (6-5) in comparison to that of their opponent tonight, parlaying to a net profit of 0.45 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been hard to get a handle on in that latter regard, alternating SUATS wins and losses over the past seven weeks, including last weekend’s romp over the Redbirds (-3.5). Since arriving in Santa Clara back in 2017, Shanahan is now 85-70 SU and 77-76-2 ATS overall, including 34-37 ATS at Levi’s Stadium, 48-47 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 41-40 ATS following a win, 43-48 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC West, and 11-12 ATS immediately after erupting for 35+ points in the previous game. Furthermore, his troops have covered TEN of their last twelve contests as a home favorite and facing an adversary coming off an outright win as an underdog and are in the midst of a 5-1 run ATS against non-division foes fresh off an outright upset. It should also be noted that San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their past seven tilts immediately after facing Arizona, which is the case tonight. However, there are some trends working against them too. The Niners have failed to cover FIVE consecutive contests after enjoying a victory by a margin of 14+ points, along with four in a row at home against an opponent possessing a winning record on the road. And if that wasn’t enough, they are a miserable 1-10 ATS when coming off a 30-point performance, which is also the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to Monday Night Football, posting a stellar 50-22 mark ATS, including a commanding 21-10 ATS at home. As we covered earlier, the 49ers trail the all-time series with the Panthers by a narrow 13-10 margin, though have taken each of the last two meetings, including that aforementioned 37-25 drubbing at Bank of America Stadium in 2022. Again, both teams will look vastly different tonight than they did on that afternoon three years ago; none of Jimmy Garoppolo (253 passing yards, 2 TD), Jeff Wilson (120 rushing yards, 1 TD), Deebo Samuel (20 receiving yards, 1 TD), Talanoa Hufanga (5 tackles, 1 sack), and Charvarius Ward (4 PD) are with the franchise anymore, while stars such as Warner, Bosa, and Aiyuk are all out of commission due to injury. With that being said, the aforementioned Kittle did haul in five catches for 47 yards and a lost fumble, while Purdy in came during garbage time and took a knee in victory formation. Speaking of the Iowa State product, he is 2-3 all-time on Monday nights, completing 67.4% of his throws for an average of 227.0 yards on 8.70 net yards per attempt, but has thrown twice as many interceptions (8) as touchdowns (4). As for his ledger ATS, Purdy is now 22-23 ATS overall, including 12-13 ATS at home, 22-21 ATS as a favorite, 12-17 ATS following a win, 10-16 ATS against a foe fresh off a win of their own, and 13-17 ATS versus non-division adversaries, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (12-12 ATS). On the injury front, Shanahan & Co have really been hit hard this season, with ten different players occupying Injured Reserve, including the likes of Warner and Bosa. (Rookie Edge) Mykel Williams, whom the club drafted eleventh overall in last Spring’s Draft is also out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL of his own. Looking ahead, the Niners will travel to Northern Ohio to battle the Browns next weekend before finally enjoying their bye week.