1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Lions -2.5, Total: 48.5
Happy Thanksgiving from everyone here at Oracle Sports, folks, as a long weekend stuffed with plenty of quality football kicks off at Ford Field, where the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions renew acquaintances in a matchup between two sides that are fighting for a playoff spot after coming into the campaign as Super Bowl contenders. Indeed, the hype train at Lambeau Field was at an all-time high in September after the Packers (7-3-1, 2nd in NFC North) dominated the Lions (27-13) and Commanders (27-18) in successive weeks after acquiring (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons in a seismic trade just a week prior to the opener. Green Bay stifled two playoff sides in frightening fashion, yielding an average of 238.0 total yards, including 48.5 yards rushing, a 32.2% success rate on third down, and logged a total of eight sacks. Unsurprisingly, the addition of Parsons (pictured below) a Pro-Bowler in each of his first four seasons in Dallas, has had an instant ripple effect on (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley’s unit; the Cheeseheads rank fifth overall in points allowed (18.4) and fourth in total defense (278.6), fifth against the pass (182.2) and sixth versus the run (96.4), along with tenth on third down (36.4%), sacks (29), and pressure percentage (23.2%). For his part, Parsons has fit in seamlessly, logging ten sacks, twenty QB hits, and 32 pressures thus far, and that’s only while playing roughly 77% of the defensive snaps, which is the lowest mark of his career. However, the reason that the Packers are sitting in a wild card spot right now isn’t due to their defense, but rather an offense that has struggled to find consistency thanks to mounting injuries. (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur is definitely one of the better offensive playcallers in the NFL, and while his troops have excelled in a situational sense, ranking first on third down (49.3%), sixth in the red zone (65.9%), and second in turnovers (7), they have been little better than average in totality. Green Bay sits thirteenth in both points scored (23.9) and total offense (350.4), fourteenth in passing (233.9) and fifteenth in rushing (116.5), which screams good but far from great. So, what in the name of Bart Starr is going on in Lambeau, you ask? Well, it seems as if this unit is going through something of an identity crisis this season. While LaFleur prefers to remain committed to running the football to setup one of the most impactful play-action attacks in the league, the ground game simply hasn’t been very successful, averaging just 4.0 yards per carry (24th Overall), which has in turn robbed the passing game of much of its rhythm. That is why you’ll see the Pack hang 40 points on the Cowboys and 35 points on the Steelers, only to muster a meager 10 points against the Browns and 13 versus the Panthers. And that is to say nothing of growing injury concern, where the receiving corps has been a revolving door of pass-catchers spending time in the trainer’s room (more on that shortly). Thankfully, they didn’t need to score many points at all to see off the Vikings in last weekend’s 23-6 victory at Lambeau, as Hafley’s defense relinquished just 145 total yards on ten first downs, with three takeaways and five sacks. Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy has struggled throughout his first season as the starting quarterback and this one may have been his worst performance, as the hosts held him to just 87 yards passing with a pair of interceptions and a fumble. (Veteran Linebacker) Isaiah McDuffie and (young Safety) Evan Williams each logged a pick, while Parsons had two sacks and three hits of the QB. Offensively, the Cheeseheads possessed the football for a season-high 37:15 of game time, rushing for 146 yards and converting 7-of-14 third downs, led by (Backup Tailback) Emmanuel Wilson with 107 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns. As for (Veteran QB) Jordan Love, he didn’t need to do a whole lot, effectively managing the game with 139 yards on 14-of-21 throws.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 7-3-1 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (4-7), equating to a net loss of 3.36 units. This is a team that has really made bettors nauseous since their inspiring 2-0 start, failing to cover all but two of their ensuing NINE games, though they did handle their business on both fronts in last weekend’s drubbing of the Northmen (-6.5). Since arriving in Eastern Wisconsin back in 2019, LaFleur is now 77-41-1 SU and 65-53-1 ATS overall, including 27-27 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 21-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 36-32 ATS against an opponent harboring revenge, 40-33 ATS following a win, and 21-16 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered seven of their last nine outings as an underdog fresh off a double-digit victory, along with seven of their past eight tilts after posting fewer than 150 passing yards in the previous game. However, Green Bay is in the midst of a 1-6 stretch ATS on the road, and are just 1-5 ATS over their last six encounters against NFC competition, while not covering SEVEN straight road games versus division rivals after holding their previous adversary to less than ten points, which is precisely the case this afternoon. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 15-13 ATS on Thursdays, including 5-3 as a road dog, covering each of their last four midweek affairs (1-0 this season). Looking at this particular matchup, the Cheeseheads own a commanding 107-78-7 advantage in the all-time series between these teams, though have certainly seen the pendulum swing in the opposite direction of late, with six losses in their last eight meetings. Granted, they were definitely the superior side when they met back in September’s season opener, a one-sided 27-13 affair in which Hafley’s defense dominated Detroit in a manner that few teams have done over the past few years. In a glorified slugfest in which neither side could crack the 300-yard threshold, the Packers were all over the visitors early, building a 17-3 lead by halftime and did not allow a touchdown until there was 55 seconds left in regulation. When it was all said and done, the hosts relegated their Lions to a season-low 246 total yards, including a scant 46 yards rushing, while logging four sacks and an interception along the way. Parsons, who had literally been in Green Bay for little over a week, made a quick impact with a pair of pressures and a sack. As for his QB, Love is 3-4 all-time against the kings of the jungle, completing 63.8% of his throws for an average of 187.9 yards on a healthy 7.57 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while rushing for another score to boot. He has been strong in these Thursday affairs, with a 3-2 ledger completing 65.9% of his passes for 257.2 yards on 8.25 net yards per attempt, with ten total scores and a pair of turnovers. Of course, those two queries have intersected in an impressive Thanksgiving Day performance back in 2023, in which the Utah State product erupted for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a 29-22 victory at Ford Field. As for his career ATS, Love is now 22-23 ATS overall, including 10-13 ATS on the road, 10-9 ATS as a dog, 11-13 ATS versus revenge, 15-11 ATS following a win, 7-8 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, 11-13 ATS versus a foe fresh off a win of their own, and 6-7 ATS against division rivals, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (7-5 ATS). On the injury front, LaFleur & Co have been banged up throughout the campaign, what with seven players on Injured Reserve, including starters such as (Tight End) Tucker Kraft (knee), (Guard) Elgton Jenkins (lower body), and (Receiver) Jayden Reed (foot), while another eight figures are listed as questionable at best for this midweek clash. (Nickelback) Nate Hobbs (knee) is out of commission and (Linebacker) Quay Walker (neck) is doubtful, while the most notable, (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs will be a game-time decision due to a bulky knee. Looking ahead, the Packers will remain within the division and face the NFC North-leading Bears for the first of two crucial conflicts in a span of three weeks, the first to be contested at Lambeau next weekend.
Meanwhile, if the playoffs began today, then the Lions (7-4, 3rd in NFC North) would be on the outside looking in, which must come as a shock for many that branded them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. After all, Detroit was a franchise-best 15-2 last season, securing the number one overall seed in the NFC along the way. With one of the most talented rosters in the league, the expectation was for (Head Coach) Dan Campbell’s outfit to compete for Lombardi trophies for years to come. However, when you are as successful as this organization has been over the previous two years (27-7), everyone is looking to poach pieces of the proverbial pie, particularly the coaching staff; Campbell lost a total of EIGHT assistants from 2024, chief among them being his offensive and defensive coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. The departure of the former is something that Lions’ fans had been fearing for quite some time; the architect of one of the most explosive attacks in the NFL, Johnson had been a target for many teams over the past few offseasons, finally leaving the Motor City in favor of division rival, Chicago, thus leaving his former employers with something of a concern on this side of the football. So, how have these kings of the jungle fared without the venerable mastermind, you ask? Well, it has been a bit of a bumpy ride at times, but there have been more highs than lows. After laying an egg in that opener against the Packers, they proceeded to average a whopping 40.3 points during a 4-game win streak that served as the highest-scoring stretch in franchise history. However, after losing two of their next three outings, Campbell opted to take over offensive playcalling duties himself, resulting in a 44-22 romp over the Commanders on Monday Night Football in which the Lions erupted for a season-high 546 total yards. With that being said, his troops could muster just 317 total yards a week later in a frigid, windy 16-9 defeat at (defending Super Bowl champion) Philadelphia in which the visitors were utterly manhandled at the line of scrimmage. Then came last weekend’s near upset against the lowly Giants, a 34-27 affair that required overtime to decide a victor. Perhaps this was the case of simply looking ahead, but nobody could have foreseen a shootout against a New York side that was without many of their offensive weapons and had recently parted ways with their HC. Nevertheless, the two teams combined for 1,011 total yards and 48 first downs, as the hosts trailed 27-17 midway through the fourth quarter. Thankfully, (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs decided to take this game into his own hands, ripping off a 49-yard touchdown run, his second score of the day, to cut the deficit to three points, and after (veteran Kicker) Jake Bates drilled a 59-yard field goal to send the game to OT, he ended the contest in dramatic fashion via a 69-yard rushing score. In the end, Gibbs (pictured below) rushed for 219 yards on just fifteen carries, accounting for 264 of his team’s total 494 yards of offense, while (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in nine receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown of his own. (Veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff bounced back from a miserable performance in Philly, completing 28-of-42 throws for 279 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. With eleven games in the books, it is clear that this team will go as far as its premium talent will take them, no matter who is calling plays, be it (Offensive Coordinator) John Morton or Campbell, for there are very few teams in the league that possess the shear amount of firepower that they have.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 7-4 straight-up thus far, but they too haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (6-5), but unlike their counterpart this afternoon they have returned a small profit of 0.45 units. This is a team that has certainly cooled off on that front following that prolific 4-game SUATS win streak, covering just two of their past six outings, failing to do so in last Sunday’s overtime affair against the G-Men. Since arriving in the Motor City back in 2021, Campbell is now 48-34-1 SU and 55-26-2 ATS overall, including 21-11 ATS at Ford Field, 29-13 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 21-8 ATS when harboring revenge, 25-14 ATS following a win, and 14-6 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops are 16-4 ATS following a non-division affair and facing an adversary with a winning record, while covering TEN of their last twelve division battles with revenge on their mind. On the flipside, Detroit has covered just one of their past five contests immediately after yielding 350+ total yards in the previous game, which is precisely where they find themselves this afternoon. Dating back to 1934, this is a franchise that is 39-45 SU on Thanksgiving Day, with last Fall’s narrow 23-20 victory over the Bears snapping an 8-game losing streak on the holiday, which was the second-longest in its history (2004-2012). As we touched upon earlier, these cats hosted the Cheeseheads for Thanksgiving two years ago and the visitors were NOT very grateful guests; Green Bay raced out to a 20-6 lead in the first quarter after scoring on a 27-yard fumble return just before the end of the period. The hosts managed to add a pair of consolation touchdowns in the second half, but were never really a threat to get back into the affair. With that being said, that loss was just their second to the Packers over the past eight meetings, as Campbell’s charges have largely proven to be the superior side during their ascension since 2022. The Lions are also 6-2 ATS during that stretch, while owning a 12-5 ledger ATS over the past nine years, with the total going OVER the projected amount in seven of the last ten tilts played at Ford Field. When they crossed paths earlier this season at Lambeau in that aforementioned 27-13 defeat, many of the faithful’s fears came to light as the kings of the jungle looked like meek pussycats, particularly on the offensive side of the football. The visitors were lethargic and uninspired in their first venture without Johnson calling plays, mustering a scant 246 total yards on sixteen first downs, converting just 5-of-15 third downs, and rushing for a season-low 46 yards on 22 carries (2.09!!!!). Goff hit on an efficient 31-of-39 passes for 225 yards, a touchdown and an interception, though much of that yardage came in the second half with his side trailing by a sizable margin, with that lone score coming inside of a minute left in regulation. The Cal product was under duress throughout the afternoon, suffering four sacks, three hits, and eleven pressures, equating to taking heat on 25.6% of his drop backs. Over the course of his career, Goff is 7-3 against the Packers, completing 69.2% of his throws for 233.5 yards on 6.63 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. On Thursdays, he 7-5 with 23 touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions. As for his profile ATS, he is now 76-55 ATS overall, including 37-27 ATS at home, 48-33 ATS as a favorite, 44-31 ATS with revenge, 38-34 ATS following a win, 35-24 ATS versus a foe fresh off a win of their own, and 28-18 ATS against division rivals. On the injury front, Campbell & Co have been dealing with injuries throughout the campaign as well, with eleven players on Injured Reserve, the most recent being (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Sam LaPorta, who underwent a back procedure last week that may have ended his season. (Defensive Backs) Terrion Arnold (concussion), Brian Branch (toe), and Kerby Joseph (knee) are all listed as questionable with various maladies, while (Offensive Linemen) Penei Sewell (ankle), Taylor Decker (shoulder), and Graham Glasgow (knee) have all been limited throughout the short practice week. Looking ahead, the Lions will remain at home for a visit from the resurgent Cowboys next Thursday night, before traveling to the City of Angels for a showdown with the current top seed in the NFC, the Rams, in a matchup that figures to have major playoff implications.