7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas A&M -3, Total: 52.5
Thanksgiving Weekend rolls on into Black Friday, folks, where a major showdown is on tap from Austin, as the (No. 3) Texas A&M Aggies look to remain unbeaten and clinch a spot in next Saturday’s SEC Title Game, but standing in their way is the (No. 16) Texas Longhorns, who would relish the opportunity to play spoiler. It took quite some time, but Texas A&M (11-0, 7-1 in SEC) has finally ascended to the level that the program had been so desperate to reach since they made their move to the SEC back in 2012. Of course, such a transition wasn’t without its pitfalls, as the Aggies were consistently met with disappointment; after an inaugural 11-2 campaign, this is a school that survived through the Johnny Football era followed later by the Jimbo Fisher experiment, getting within striking distance of the playoff, but ultimately failing to break through. And then came (Head Coach) Mike Elko, who returned to the program where he served as Defensive Coordinator from 2018 to 2021, inheriting a mess following the most high-profile buyout in college football history, as A&M paid Fisher a staggering $77.5 million to pack his bags and leave College Station. Undeterred, Elko (pictured below) circled the wagons and went to work in the fertile recruiting grounds of the lone star state, while also putting the school’s considerable financial resources to good use, following an 8-5 finish with what has been the program’s fifth 11-win season, with a real shot at their third National Championship, which would be their first since 1939. With eight returning starters on each side of the football, the 48-year-old has managed to build upon a solid foundation, ranking tenth in the FBS in points scored (38.1) on 465.1 total yards. The attack has had no shortage of playmakers, with three different players rushing for 350+ yards, including (Sophomore Quarterback) Marcel Reed, who has really taken his game to the next level in 2025. In his first season as the unquestioned starter, Reed (pictured below alongside Elko) has inserted himself into the Heisman discussion, averaging 250.2 yards per game through the air on 61.8% passing with 25 touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, while leading the SEC 14.6 yards per completion. The Nashville native plays a sizable part in the run game too, rushing for 395 yards and six more scores. However, if there is one criticism of Reed and by extension the offense as a whole, it is that they can at times play a little too loose. Texas A&M has committed fourteen turnovers thus far, parlaying to a -5 differential, with at least one giveaway in all but two of their games. In fact, this is a team that has only won the turnover battle on just three occasions this Fall, which makes their success all the more remarkable. Elko & Co have certainly lived dangerously of late, committing NINE turnovers over the last four games alone, including FOUR in a miraculous 31-30 rally against South Carolina two weeks ago. The Aggies trailed 30-3 at halftime thanks to a first half that was dominated by those four giveaways, three of which came from a sloppy Reed, who was flustered throughout the first two periods of play. However, he would engineer the largest comeback in school history as the hosts would run off 31 unanswered points to remain perfect and secure their third victory by three points or less this season. In the end, A&M outgained the Gamecocks 503-388 in total yards, as Reed erupted for 439 passing yards on 22-of-39 throws, with three touchdowns to offset those turnovers. (Wideouts) Kevin Concepcion (158 yards) and Ashton Bethel-Roman (139 yards) each logged 125+ receiving yards, with the latter hauling in a 39-yard score late in the third quarter to cut the deficit to fourteen points. For three hours on a November afternoon, we saw what this team is capable of, both great and calamitous. Will they continue to trend towards the former or finally succumb to the latter? Tonight’s trip to Austin will likely reveal the answer…
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M may be on three remaining unbeatens straight-up, but they haven’t come close to being that rewarding against the spread (5-6), equating to a net loss of 1.36 units. This is a team has failed that has split their past four outings on that front, with last weekend’s shutout of Samford falling just short of the mammoth spread (-54.5). Since arriving in College Station last season, Elko is now 19-5 SU and 8-14 ATS overall, including 4-4 ATS away from Kyle Field, 7-14 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 8-10 ATS following a win, and 7-8 ATS against all opposition residing within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops have covered four of their last ten ventures on the road and are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch ATS as conference favorites of less than sixteen points with revenge, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Aggies trail the all-time series against their bitter rivals by a sizable margin (37-70-5 SU), with just win in the past four meetings. After a long hiatus following A&M’s transition to the SEC, this is just the second encounter between these programs as conference rivals since 2011. When they crossed paths last Fall, it was a tightly contested 17-7 affair from College Station, in which Reed & Co struggled to get much of anything going on the offensive side of the football. The hosts were outgained 458-244 in total yards by the third-ranked Longhorns, who trampled them to the tune of 240 rushing yards. Reed ended the night with 146 passing yards and an interception on 16-of-23 throws, while also serving as the team’s leading rusher with 56 yards on fourteen carries. Elko’s defense was in bend-but-don’t-break mode throughout this one, folks, stiffening in the red zone time and time again, while forcing a pair of turnovers to boot. (Junior Linebacker) Taurean York was all over the field, with a team-best ten tackles, including 3.5 for loss, a sack, and fumble recovery, while (Senior Cornerback) Will Lee was responsible for his team’s lone score of the night, a 93-yard interception return to the house midway through the third period. On the injury front, (Senior Tailback) Le’Veon Moss has been sidelined since early October with an ailing ankle, though he is officially listed as questionable to return tonight. However, the more interesting situation is that of (Sophomore Receiver) Mario Craver, who is also listed as questionable after missing last weekend’s win over Samford due to an undisclosed malady. The Mississippi State transfer has made quite an impact in the passing game since coming over from Starkville, hauling in 47 receptions for 781 yards and four touchdowns. Looking ahead, Texas A&M will book their first-ever trip to the SEC Title Game with a win tonight, where their opponent has to be decided; Georgia (7-1 in SEC play) have already concluded their league schedule, while both Ole Miss and Alabama can reach 7-1 with wins later this weekend. If the Aggies happen to lose tonight, then they will be at the mercy of tiebreakers, none of which are of the head-to-head variety.
Meanwhile, for most schools, an 8-3 campaign with a shot at ten wins is considered a moderate success, but for Texas (8-3, 5-2 in SEC) this has been nothing short of a disappointment. Of course, this is all relative to expectations, folks, and in Austin, those expectations were residing in the stratosphere coming into 2025. And why wouldn’t they? After all, the Longhorns went to 15-5 overall from 2023 to 2024, winning BIG XII and SEC titles along the way with a pair of trips to the Playoff, where they advanced to the National Semifinals on each occasion. In just four seasons, (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian had returned Texas to prominence after spending years in the proverbial wilderness, with the masses wholly expecting the ‘Horns to hook every foe before them this Fall. Of course, a MAJOR component of the hype train has been (Sophomore Quarterback) Arch Manning, who is the by far and away the most-hyped QB recruit that the sport has seen in years. Despite the faithful’s clamoring, Manning waited patiently to become the starter in Austin, with his presence alone positioning the Longhorns as the preseason number one overall team in the AP Poll. However, things have not gone according to plan, as reality hit them in the season opener, a 14-7 defeat at (reigning National Champion) Ohio State, who ironically eliminated Texas in last January’s semifinal. This would begin a campaign filled with ups and downs, as Sarkisian (pictured below) saw his charges upset by a dreadful Florida side (29-21), while narrowly avoiding defeat in overtime affairs against Kentucky (16-13) and Mississippi State (45-38) in successive weeks, before finally biting the dust at Georgia (35-10). So, what in the name of Vince Young has happened to the ‘Horns, you ask? Well, as limitless as his potential may be, Manning (pictured alongside Sarkisian) isn’t there quite yet, completing 62.5% of his throws for 251.2 yards per game on 8.1 yards per attempt with 23 touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, while rushing for another 191 yards and seven more scores. Respectively, those figures are comparable to that of his counterpart tonight, which just goes to show how the veil of expectations influences our opinions. Indeed, Manning has struggled against the tougher defenses such as that of the Buckeyes, Gators, Wildcats, and Bulldogs, though it should be noted that he is headlining an attack that returned just three starters from last season, with the offensive line and receiving corps undergoing plenty of turnover. However, he and the offense as a whole have played better of late, averaging 35.3 points over the past four outings and racking up 420+ total yards three times along the way. With that said, lately it has been the defense that has struggling; during that same stretch, (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit has relinquished an identical 35.3 points on 434.3 total yards, including an untenable 325.0 yards against the pass, with THIRTEEN touchdowns allowed through the air versus just two interceptions. Last weekend’s 52-37 victory over Arkansas continued this trend, as the two sides combined for an insane 1,002 total yards, 707 of which came via the pass. This one was close at halftime as Texas entered intermission with a 24-20 lead, though they would gain control of the tilt in the second half via a 28-3 run. Manning rushed for a short score on the opening possession of the third quarter, before finding (Junior Receiver) DeAndre Moore for a pair of touchdowns to open up a 45-23 advantage. (Junior Linebacker) Liona Lefau added another when he returned a fumble 52 yards to the house, though the Razorbacks would strike back with two more touchdowns before time ultimately ran out on their comeback bid.
From a betting perspective, Texas has also seen a steep drop-off between their straight-up ledger (8-3) and against the spread (3-8), clocking in at a net loss of 5.27 units, which is the worst return of any school within the SEC this Fall. This is a team that did finally break through last weekend in that shootout against the Hogs (-9), snapping a streak of four consecutive non-covers. Since arriving in Austin back in 2021, Sarkisian is now 46-20 SU and 31-34-1 ATS overall, including 20-12 ATS at DKR, 3-5 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 11-12 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 20-22 ATS following a win, and 19-24 ATS versus all conference opponents, be they from the SEC or the BIG XII before that. Furthermore, the Longhorns have failed to cover SEVEN successive outings against adversaries coming off back-to-back SUATS victories, and are in the midst of an 0-5 stretch ATS as underdogs of three or more points against a foe fresh off consecutive SUATS wins, so keep an eye on that spread, folks. With that being said, Sark’s troops have generally bounced back after a poor showing from their defense, posting a 17-5 resume ATS immediately after shipping 36+ points, which is the case after last weekend’s battle with Arkansas. As we covered earlier, the ‘Horns have dominated the all-time series against the Aggies (70-37-5 SU), winning four of the past five contests dating back to their days together in the BIG XII. They picked up where they left off in last Fall’s reunion matchup on Black Friday, earning a hard-fought 17-7 victory at Kyle Field, their first in thirteen years. The visitors were clearly the superior side with a 214-yard advantage in total yards, including 240-98 on the ground, but all of that yardage didn’t necessarily translate into touchdowns as a pair of turnovers, chief among them that aforementioned 93-yard pick-6, curtailed their scoring opportunities. (Junior Tailback) Tre Wisner went OFF with 186 rushing yards, 207 from scrimmage, on an industrious 33 carries, while (former QB) Quinn Ewers was pretty solid aside from that pick, completing 17-of-28 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. As for Manning, he made a brief impact when he got on the field, rushing for a 15-yard touchdown to open his team’s account late in the first period. On the injury front, keep an eye on the situation of (Junior Linebacker) Anthony Hill Jr, who missed last weekend’s visit from the Hogs due to a broken bone in his hand. A preseason All-America, Hill is one of top defenders in the nation and a big part of the ‘Horns defense, leading them with 69 tackles, along with seven for loss four sacks, three forced fumbles, and a pair of interceptions. Looking ahead, even with a win tonight it is highly unlikely that Texas will manage to snatch an at-large bid for the playoff, snapping a 2-year run in the tourney, leaving them to participate in whatever postseason bowl they so choose.