4:25 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Bills -3.5, Total: 47.5
My oh my, what a difference a month can make, as the Buffalo Bills travel to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers in a matchup featuring a pair of teams who have lost their grips upon their respective divisions and are thus desperate to bounce back after disappointing losses. After five years reigning atop the AFC East, the Bills (7-4, 2nd in AFC East) are in very real danger of seeing their stranglehold on the division come to an end as they continue to trail the surging Patriots by 2.5 games in the standings. Furthermore, they are clinging to the final wild card in the AFC, which could see them miss out on the playoffs for the first time since 2019, raising alarms around the facility in Orchard Park. So, after a strong 4-0 start, what in the name of Jim Kelly has happened to Buffalo, you ask? Well, over their last seven games, this is a team that has struggled to find consistency with a 3-4 ledger during that stretch. While (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s defense has been a sticking point all season, the real culprit for their struggles has been an offense that has failed to maintain the lofty production of their torrid start. In their first four games, (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady’s unit averaged a robust 33.3 points on 404.0 total yards, converting 42.0% of their third downs and taking excellent care of the football with just one turnover along the way. However, since then they have slumped to 25.4 points on 369.1 total yards, with the biggest culprit for said regression being turnovers, committing FOURTEEN in seven outings. That’s an average of two per game, folks, with the overall differential clocking in at -5. Hell, they have given the ball away exactly three times in each of the last three games alone, which simply is NOT a recipe for success. At the end of the day, this is remarkably still a team that is dependent on (reigning MVP Quarterback) Josh Allen to play at an elite level, oftentimes living and dying on the exploits of the 3-time Pro-Bowler. All the talk in Buffalo over the past few years has been about bolstering his supporting cast in an effort to reduce the workload on the 29-year-old, but here we are once again with the Bills needing him to make play after play. Case in point: in a wild 44-32 shootout victory over Tampa Bay two weeks ago, Allen (pictured below) became just the third QB in NFL history to both pass and rush for three touchdowns, ironically matching a mark he set a year ago. That insane volume of production was good enough to wipe away three turnovers from his side, but that wouldn’t be the case in last week’s 23-19 defeat at the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Against arguably the toughest defense in the NFL, the visitors could muster just 183 total yards of offense, while Allen was picked off twice and sacked a season-high EIGHT times for a loss of 70 yards. With the offense struggling, the defense couldn’t do much to stop Houston, even with a backup QB at the helm, particularly when being forced to defend a short field so often. Apart from a 45-yard jaunt courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook to the end zone to open the scoring in the first quarter, this was about as ugly and sloppy that the Bills have looked this season.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 7-4 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (5-6), parlaying to a loss of 1.45 units. This is a team has really drawn the ire of bettors since their strong 2-0 start, covering just three of their past nine outings, while failing to do so in last week’s loss in Houston (-4.5). Since arriving in Western New York back in 2017, McDermott is now 100-56 SU and 79-68-7 ATS overall, including 38-34 ATS away from Orchard Park, 52-45 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 26-20 ATS following a loss, and 54-42 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, Buffalo is in the midst of a 5-1 stretch ATS immediately following an outright defeat, while posting a 16-4-1 ledger ATS versus adversaries with a winning record. However, they are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven ventures away from Highmark Stadium, while on a 1-4 skid ATS versus AFC foes. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills trail the all-time series 13-17 SU, though they have taken five of the past seven encounters, covering each of those victories along the way. When they last crossed paths, it was a one-sided 31-17 affair in the 2024 Wild Card in which Buffalo stormed out to a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, courtesy of a 52-yard touchdown run via Allen. Pittsburgh would cut the deficit to seven points midway through the final stanza, but the hosts would put to rest any threat of a comeback as Allen hit (veteran Wideout) Khalil Shakir for a 17-yard score on the ensuing possession. When it was all said and done, this one came down to big plays, with McDermott’s charges coming up with a pair of turnovers, including an interception by (former Defensive Back) Kaiir Elam and a fumble recovery from (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard. Allen dominated the Steel Curtain with 277 total yards and four touchdowns, while Cook rushed for a team-high 79 yards on eighteen carries. Getting back to the reigning MVP, he has enjoyed plenty of success against the Steelers, posting a 4-1 ledger in completing 60.0% of his throws for an average of 254.8 yards on 6.87 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, and another 43.2 rushing yards and two more scores. As for his profile ATS, he is now 68-57 ATS overall, including 32-26 ATS on the road, 49-43 ATS as a favorite, 21-14 ATS following a loss, 35-26 ATS versus a foe coming off a defeat of their own, and 48-36 ATS against non-division opponents, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (20-15 ATS). On the injury front, McDermott & Co have dealt with plenty of injuries throughout the season, what with twelve players on Injured Reserve, most notable being (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver (bicep) and (Safety) Taylor Rapp (knee). Furthermore, (Young Tight End) Dalton Kincaid will miss a third consecutive game due to a lingering hamstring strain. Looking ahead, the Bills will return to Orchard Park for a visit from the Bengals, before heading to Foxborough for a rematch with the Patriots, who bested them in primetime back in early October, in a matchup that will likely crown the victor of the AFC East.
Meanwhile, if you think the Bills have had it rough of late, we would like to introduce you to the Steelers (6-5, T-1st in AFC North), who have just about wasted all the good will that they managed to build for themselves following a 3-2 start. Simply put, nobody in Western Pennsylvania could have imagined the first few months of the campaign breaking the way it did for Pittsburgh, who looked as if they would go on to win the division by default considering the misfortune that had plagued their fellow residents. After all, Baltimore stumbled to a 1-5 start due to a rash of injuries, while Cincinnati failed to maintain a rare strong start after their quarterback bit the dust, and Cleveland… well, they have been as consistently poor as ever. A potential playoff run was seemingly sitting on a silver platter for (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin & Co, who also appeared to have solved their longstanding QB conundrum by convincing (4-time MVP) Aaron Rodgers to forego retirement. However, since then this is a team that has dropped four of their last six games, as Rodgers (pictured below) hasn’t been able to overcome an aging defense that looks like it is close to running out of gas. On the season, Pittsburgh ranks 20th overall in points allowed (23.9) and 28th in total defense (364.4), with the pass defense sitting at next-to-last in the league (258.7), shipping nineteen touchdowns along the way (22nd Overall). If not for getting their hands on the second-most takeaways in the NFL (20), then there is no telling how bad it would be for the Steelers, who continue to rest their hopes in the hands of Rodgers (pictured below). Now 42-years-old, he is far removed from being the elite of elite that he was for the better part of eighteen years in Green Bay, where he routinely functioned as a prolific attack unto himself. With his mobility waning and arm strength regressing, he has needed to rely more upon the talent around him, which again hasn’t been enough to make the difference. Sure, Rodgers is smart as a whip and continues to take care of the football better than almost every other QB to proceed him, but playing high-percentage football hasn’t led to a potent attack, as Pittsburgh ranks 27th overall in total yards (304.3), 22nd in passing (207.2), and 27th in rushing (97.1). And that was BEFORE he suffered a slight fracture in his non-throwing wrist two weeks ago, which caused him to miss a reunion with his favorite victim, the Bears. While he stewed on the sideline, (longtime Backup) Mason Rudolph led the charge in the Windy City and put in nothing short of a valiant shift, completing 24-of-31 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown and interception apiece. The visitors came out swinging after an early interception thrown by Rudolph, taking a 21-14 lead just before halftime. Unfortunately, 186 yards courtesy of the ground game and a pair of turnovers from the defense weren’t enough to get the job done, as Chicago rallied back to earn the victory. After cutting the deficit to three points with just under seven minutes left, Tomlin’s outfit could get no closer trading punts with their opponent before ultimately turning it over on downs just over midfield. (Young Tailback) Jaylen Warren (68 yards, 1 TD) and his veteran teammate, Kenneth Gainwell (122 yards from scrimmage) enjoyed strong showings, while (2021 Defensive Player of the Year) T.J. Watt passed his brother J.J. for 26th on the all-time sack list.
From a betting perspective, the Steelers are 6-5 straight-up thus far and have almost replicated that mark against the spread (5-5-1), equating to a net loss of 0.45 units. This is a team that has fallen off a cliff in that regard after a promising 3-game win streak SUATS, covering just two of their last six outings, with last weekend’s loss to the Bears ending in a push (+3). During his near two decades in Western Pennsylvania, Tomlin is now 197-123-2 SU and 162-148-12 ATS overall, including 86-69 ATS at Acrisure Stadium, 62-40-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 61-48 ATS following a loss, and a middling 99-99-1 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops are 14-6 ATS against an adversary coming off a defeat and are in the midst of a 5-1 run ATS when hosting a team with a winning road record, which is the case today. However, they have struggled to hit the mark of late against foes who are above .500, covering just two of their past seven such games, which is also the case this afternoon. As we touched upon earlier, Pittsburgh may own a slim edge in the all-time series against Buffalo (17-13), but the proverbial pendulum has swung away from the Steel Curtain in recent years, with just one win since 2019. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned Wild Card affair, Tomlin’s charges appeared shellshocked on the verge of a route after falling into an early 21-0 hole but found a way to climb back into contention. The visitors cut the deficit to 24-17 after Rudolph hit (young Wideout) Calvin Austin for a short score with just over ten minutes left in regulation. However, a series of penalties enabled the Bills to move swiftly downfield, effectively ending the game with a touchdown of their own. As has often been the case with the offense, they simply couldn’t do enough to keep up with a high-powered opponent, possessing the ball for just 26:41, amassing 324 total yards, and committing the only two turnovers of the night. With that being said, Rudolph played well enough to give his side a chance, completing 22-of-39 throws for 229 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while (veteran Tight End) Pat Freiermuth hauled in five of eight targets for 76 yards. As for their current QB1, Rodgers is 3-4 all-time against Buffalo, completing just 57.4% of his passes for 192.4 yards per game on 6.41 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (7). He grew well acquainted with the Bills during his 2-year stay with the Jets, though lost both encounters, while rupturing his Achilles moments into the 2023 season opener. As for his profile ATS, he is now 151-114 ATS overall, including 80-49 ATS at home, 40-31 ATS as a dog, 54-34 ATS coming off a loss, 68-54 ATS versus an adversary fresh off of a defeat of their own, and 93-81 ATS against non-division opponents, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (73-45 ATS). On the injury front, Tomlin & Co have nine players on Injured Reserve, while a number of veteran defenders are at risk of missing today’s showdown, including (Edge) Alex Highsmith (pectoral), (Defensive Lineman) Cameron Heyward (undisclosed), and (Cornerback) Darius Slay (concussion). Rodgers is reportedly trending towards starting after missing last weekend’s trip to Chicago with that fractured wrist, though the decision will likely come closer to kickoff. Looking ahead, the Steelers will travel to Baltimore for a crucial conflict with the rejuvenated Ravens, who they are currently level with atop the AFC North, while the return leg in Pittsburgh will come in the season finale.