8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Patriots -7.5, Total: 46.5
Week 13 comes to a conclusion tonight in Foxborough, as the struggling New York Giants square off against the white-hot New England Patriots in a matchup of Super Bowls past. For the fifth time in a decade, the Giants (2-10, 4th in NFC East) are set to embrace yet another rebuild, as they parted ways with (Head Coach) Brian Daboll following a disappointing 2-8 start to the campaign. Since earning 2022 Coach of the Year honors on the strength of leading the G-Men to the playoffs for the first time since 2016, his tenure crumbled into an 11-33 nightmare, due in large part to maddeningly inconsistent quarterback play, a relentless stream of injuries, and just a poorly constructed roster. Granted, that last bit falls on (General Manager) Joe Schoen, who arrived alongside of Daboll three years ago, though all reports out of the Meadowlands is that the executive’s position within the organization is safe. That is likely due to the promise shown by his recent draft haul, who have all impressed in their respective rookie campaigns. (Third Overall Pick) Abdul Carter seemed like a luxury pick at a position of strength, but the Penn State product has MAJOR upside along the defensive front-seven, even if he hasn’t posted the kind of numbers that were expected; despite logging just a half-sack in twelve games (2 starts), he has sixteen pressures playing 77% of all defensive snaps, while racking up a dozen QB hits along the way, which is a sign of a young player getting there, but yet to truly finish. And then there is (25th Overall Pick) Jaxson Dart, whom the team traded back into the first round to select. The Ole Miss product has certainly energized the attack, winning two of his first three starts with SEVENTEEN total touchdowns in seven starts at QB. However, his reckless approach has left him exposed to way too much contact, leading to a concussion suffered two weeks ago against the Bears and will likely sideline him for a second consecutive contest tonight. Lastly, we have (Fourth Round Pick) Cam Scattebo, who brought even more energy out of the Backfield, amassing 617 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns in eight games, before unfortunately tearing ligaments in his knee in a loss to the Eagles. Notice the trend here, folks? Schoen likely saved his job by hitting on multiple picks, including prolific sophomore pass-catcher, Malik Nabers, who also suffered a season-ending knee injury coming back in Week 4, but the team has suffered without such youthful firepower, losing five games by one possession, including each of the last three. Last weekend’s 34-27 overtime defeat at Detroit continued this trend, as (Backup QB) Jameis Winston nearly led an improbable upset, relentlessly bombing away on a Lions’ defense for 366 yards on 18-of-36 passing, which equates to a whopping 20.3 yards per completion! The former number one overall pick has proven capable of these performances in the past coming off the bench, totaling three touchdowns, including a 33-yard receiving score early in the fourth quarter to stretch the lead to 27-17. However, it is oftentimes a rollercoaster ride with Winston (pictured below), whose interception in the fourth quarter immediately led to a 49-yard touchdown run to cut the lead to three points, and as the defense has so often this Fall, continued to capitulate with a 59-yard field goal to send the tilt to OT, where they were once again victimized by a lengthy rushing score, this one from 69 yards. Needless to say, (Interim HC) Mike Kafka was NOT pleased with this turn of events, as he fired (Defensive Coordinator) Shane Bowen after the game. New York has now lost FOUR games in which they have held a lead in the fourth quarter, including that epic collapse in Denver in which they shipped 33 points in the final frame of a 33-31 defeat.
From a betting perspective, the Giants may be circling the drain once again at 2-10 straight-up, but they have been far more rewarding against the spread (7-5), parlaying to a net return of 1.36 units. This is a team that has been an underdog in every game thus far, with the majority of their spread success coming as a sizable one; Big Blue is 5-3 ATS as a dog of six or more points, including last weekend’s overtime thriller in the Motor City (+14). Since taking over as the Interim Coach, Kafka is now 0-2 SU and 2-0 ATS overall, including 1-0 ATS away from the Meadowlands, 2-0 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-0 ATS following a loss, and 2-0 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, New York is has failed to cover all but one of their past eight games after shipping 250+ passing yards in the previous outing, four of their last five after conceding 30+ points, and are in the midst of a 3-7-1 stretch ATS immediately following a cover. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to the bright lights of Monday Night Football, posting a 29-34 ATS ledger on this stage, including 13-18 ATS as a road dog, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the all-time series between these teams sits level at 7-7 SU, though the G-Men have undoubtedly claimed the most significant victories, besting the Patriots in Super Bowls XLII (17-14) and XLVI (21-17). They have crossed paths just three times since that latter triumph from fourteen years ago, with the most recent being a 10-7 defensive struggle in windy conditions at MetLife Stadium. This one was every bit as ugly as that final score would suggest, folks, as the hosts earned a rare win despite logging just 220 total yards and ten first downs, while possessing the football for a scant 25:54 of game time. This one was all about takeaways, as the Giants intercepted three passes, the third setting up the go-ahead field goal midway through the fourth quarter. Granted, the visitors would have an opportunity to push the tilt into overtime with a 35-yard field goal, but failed to do so as the kick sailed wide of its mark. Ironically, the QB that day was Tommy DeVito, who signed with New England after being released in the offseason, completing 17-of-25 throws for 191 yards and a 12-yard touchdown to (veteran Wideout) Isaiah Hodgins. On the injury front, Kafka & Co have dealt with plenty of injuries throughout the campaign, with thirteen players on Injured Reserve, while three more starters are expected to miss tonight’s trip to Foxborough, including Dart (concussion), (veteran Cornerback) Paulson Adebo (knee), and (Edge) Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder). Furthermore, (Defensive Backs) Deonte Banks (hip) and Tyler Nubin (neck) are listed as questionable with various maladies, while (veteran Receiver) Darius Slayton has been limited throughout the practice week with a tender hamstring. Looking ahead, the Giants will finally enjoy their bye next week, before returning to action against the Commanders in a rematch of the season opener, a 21-6 loss in Landover.
Meanwhile, it has been a VERY different story in Foxborough, where the Patriots (10-2, 1st in AFC East) are enjoying a renaissance after being lost in the proverbial wilderness for a few years. After going 8-26 over the previous two seasons, the franchise opted to go clean slate across the board, as (longtime Owner) Robert Kraft hired (Executive of Player Personnel) Elliott Wolf, (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel, and (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels, with these appointments proving to be a masterclass. Of course, the most notable is Vrabel (pictured below), who returns to the team that he played eight years for, winning three Super Bowls along the way. After a bitter breakup with the Titans, the 50-year-old opted to sit out of the hiring cycle a year ago in lieu of better options, with his patience paying off handsomely with his return to New England. Simply put, this has had a ripple effect down the coaching staff and the roster, as the Pats are making noise like they haven’t since the glory days of their dynasty. Consider this, folks: this is a team that has won NINE consecutive contests, their longest in-season win streak since the Brady/Belichick era, while Vrabel is the first HC to get off to a 10-2 start in his first season with a new franchise since Andy Reid did so back in 2013 with the Chiefs. New England ranks in the top eight overall on both sides of the football in points scored (26.5) and allowed (18.8), along with total offense (359.9) and defense (301.1), while doing the same on third down on both fronts. Appointing McDaniels, who is in his third tenure with the team, to coordinate the attack and develop (2024 Third Overall Pick) Drake Maye was a no-brainer for Vrabel, with the young quarterback evolving into a legitimate MVP candidate in just his second year in Foxborough. Indeed, the North Carolina product leads the NFL in both completion percentage (71.0%) and passing yards (3,130), while throwing for 21 touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, averaging a healthy 7.55 net yards per attempt to boot. Furthermore, reinforcements along the Offensive Line and the addition of (veteran Wideout) Stefon Diggs (679 yards, 3 TD) has hastened his growth, while (Rookie Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson has really begun to make an impact with an average of 97.2 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the past five games. The Patriots continued to roll in last weekend’s 26-20 victory over the Bengals, which was a bit closer than many predicted, due in large part to Vrabel’s troops bogging down in the red zone and settling for a quartet of field goals courtesy of (young Kicker) Andres Borregales. New England totaled 392 total yards of offense, with Maye (pictured below alongside Vrabel) 316 total yards himself, along with a touchdown, but was victimized on a 32-yard pick-6 late in the first quarter. However, the Pats would strike back with an interception return of their own, as (Cornerback) Marcus Jones picked off Joe Flacco midway through the second period, taking the lead on that house call. (Veteran Tight End) Hunter Henry hauled in seven of ten targets for 115 yards and a 28-yard touchdown, while Henderson compiled 81 yards from scrimmage on 21 touches.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots are a stellar 10-2 straight-up, but they have also been one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL against the spread (8-4), equating to a net profit of 3.27 units thus far. This is a team has really been surging on both fronts, covering the spread in seven of these nine consecutive victories, though they did fail to do so in last weekend’s trip to Cincinnati (-7.5). Since returning to Foxborough, Vrabel is now 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, including 3-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, 5-3 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 6-3 ATS following a win, and 5-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 6-1 run ATS immediately after a non-cover, a 4-1 stretch ATS against an opponent with a losing record, and four covers in their last five outings following an offensive performance in which they amassed 350+ total yards. With that being said, New England is 4-9-1 ATS versus adversaries hailing from the NFC since 2023, which is the case with tonight’s visit from Big Blue. Dating back to 1990, this is also a franchise that is no stranger to Monday Night Football with a 26-21 ledger ATS, including 7-3 as a home favorite, with tonight’s affair their first appearance on MNF since 2022. As we touched upon earlier, these two teams have split their fourteen all-time encounters, with the Pats being denied two more Lombardi Trophies during their dynastic run through the 2000s and 2010s, losing those aforementioned Super Bowls by the slimmest of margins (7 combined points!!!). Granted, they did enjoy a measure of revenge when they crossed paths in both 2015 (27-26) and 2019 (35-14), but their most recent meeting, that ugly 10-7 affair from the Meadowlands was another matt altogether. There wasn’t much to see here, folks, as the two teams combined for 507 total yards of offense, as wind and rain had an adverse effect on the game. This was a major issue for (former QB) Mac Jones, who threw a pair of interceptions on the day, including one just outside of the red zone, before being replaced by Bailey Zappe, who was also picked off, leading to New York’s go-ahead field goal. With that being said, the Western Kentucky product engineered a late drive all the way down to the hosts’ 17-yard line, but (former Kicker) Chad Ryland shanked the 35-yarder, ending the affair altogether. Getting back to their current QB, Maye is 14-9 ATS overall, including 6-6 ATS at home, 5-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-4 ATS following a win, 5-2 ATS coming off back-to-back victories, 6-6 ATS versus a foe fresh off of a loss, and 8-9 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, Vrabel & Co have nine players residing on Injured Reserve, though all eyes will be fixated on the Offensive Line, where (Rookie Left Tackle) Will Campbell (knee) and (Center) Jared Wilson (ankle) each exited last weekend’s game with various maladies. Reports out of Foxborough indicate that the former will be out of action tonight, though the latter has a chance of playing, though Vrabel could very well opt to sit him in lieu of next week’s bye. Looking ahead, the Patriots will enjoy the week off before welcoming the Bills for a seismic rematch of their 23-20 victory in Orchard Park from early October, which will likely go a long way towards deciding who will win the AFC East.