8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Lions -3, Total: 54.5
Week 14 kicks off tonight in the Motor City with a pair of teams traveling in surprisingly different directions, as the surging Dallas Cowboys take their act on the road against the struggling Detroit Lions, who are suddenly mired in a rare 2-game losing streak. A phrase that is commonly associated with sports is flipping the switch, oftentimes describing a team that inexplicably reverses their fortunes in the blink of an eye. Granted, that is definitely an oversimplification of things, but is apropos in regard to the Cowboys (6-5-1, 2nd in NFC East), who at one point looked dead in the water only to appear to have become a contender. So, what in the name of Roger Staubach has happened in Arlington, you ask? Well, to the surprise of absolutely nobody, Dallas got off to a listless 3-5-1 start due in large part to an utterly dreadful defense that was left bereft of talent courtesy of an injury-riddled Secondary and the departure of (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons, whom the organization actually TRADED to the Packers a week before the start of the campaign. While we won’t go into any more detail of that debacle, it had nothing short of an adverse effect on a defense that was torched for 30.8 points on 397.4 total yards during the first nine weeks. However, tragedy struck in the form of (Defensive Linemen) Marshawn Kneeland, who committed suicide days after a 27-17 defeat to the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. This provided a MAJOR emotional boost to a team that needed anything to get back on track, while (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones came to the rescue at the Trade Deadline, acquiring (veteran Linebacker) Logan Wilson and (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Quinnen Williams in separate deals with the Bengals and Jets respectively. With all of this mind, the Cowboys have since erupted from their bye week to win three consecutive contests, including outright upsets of last year’s participants in Super Bowl LIX, the Eagles (24-21) in an improbable 21-point comeback and the Chiefs (31-28) on Thanksgiving Day. Upon watching these victories, it is impossible to deny that there is some magic brewing in Big D, as the defense has stabilized, shipping a much more palatable 21.7 points on 312.3 total yards. Sure, those figures are far from elite, but climbing to the middle of proverbial pack is really all this team needs to become a threat in the NFC, particularly when you consider that their offense remains one of the most potent in the league as a whole. (Head Coach) Brian Schottenheimer was elevated from his post as Offensive Coordinator in large part to maintain consistency on that side of the ball, which has been precisely what has happened; his charges rank second overall in points scored (29.3) and first in total offense (393.0), spurred by the most prolific aerial attack in the NFL at 280.0 yards per game. (Veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott has bounced back from an injury-riddled campaign with 3,261 yards and 25 touchdowns thus far, while (young Wideout) George Pickens, who was acquired back in the Spring in a trade with the Steelers, has formed arguably the most dangerous pass-catching tandem in the league alongside (All-Pro Receiver) CeeDee Lamb. Indeed, it looks like Dallas is well on their way towards fielding two 1,000-yard WRs, with Pickens (pictured below) set for a sizable payday when he hits free agency come March, posting career-highs in catches (73), yards (1,142), and touchdowns (8). They all played a role in last Thursday’s win over Kansas City, which saw the home side turn the tables with ten unanswered points scored between the second and third quarters, with their offense continuing to build momentum the rest of the way. When it was all said and done, Schottenheimer had to have been happy with the performance he received from his troops, who torched the Chiefs for 457 total yards on 23 first downs, rushing for 137 yards and passing for another 320 yards, while converting 9-of-16 third downs to boot. Prescott hit on 29-of-37 throws with a pair of touchdowns, while Lamb hauled in seven of his nine targets for 112 yards and a score, with Pickens adding another six receptions for 88 yards of his own.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may be sitting at 6-5-1 straight-up, but they have been more rewarding against the spread (7-5), equating to a net return of 1.36 units. As we touched upon earlier, this is a team that has really caught fire of late, beating the spread in each of their past three outings, including that Thanksgiving triumph over Kansas City (+3.5). In his first season as the leading man, Schottenheimer is now 6-5-1 SU and 7-5 ATS, including 3-3 ATS away from Arlington, 5-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-0 ATS when harboring revenge, 2-3 ATS following a win, and 4-4 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered five of their last six games immediately after posting over 250 passing yards in the previous contest, while matching that ledger in their past six tilts played on fieldturf. Dallas has also been on a heater in these midweek affairs, owning a 3-0-1 record ATS on Thursdays, though it should also be noted that they have covered just two of their last ten games on the road versus an adversary with a winning home record, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 8-3 on Thursday Night Football, including 1-0 as a road underdog, while going 5-1 ATS with revenge, which is once again the case in this trip to the Motor City. Looking at this particular matchup, Big D owns a 19-13 edge in the all-time series between these teams, which includes a 6-game win streak that was snapped in last Fall’s 47-9 drubbing at Ford Field. This one was as one-sided as the score would indicate, folks, as the visitors were thoroughly outgained in total yards (492-251), while getting utterly trampled on the ground where they relinquished 184 rushing yards. They also committed an untenable FIVE turnovers, while failing on fourth down on all but one of their four attempts. Make no mistake, this was a ROUGH outing for Prescott, who was picked off twice, sacked four times, and pressured on HALF of his dropbacks (19 times!!!). Granted, he had enjoyed plenty of success against Detroit prior to that performance, with a stellar CV consisting of five wins and one loss, completing 65.0% of his throws for 273.5 yards on a healthy 8.10 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. The Mississippi State product has also done well for himself on Thursdays (12-6), racking up a total of 33 touchdowns in comparison to fourteen turnovers. As for his career ATS, Prescott is now 77-65 ATS overall, including 36-32 ATS on the road, 21-21 ATS as a dog, 33-29 ATS with revenge, 40-38 ATS following a win, 21-23 ATS coming off back-to-back wins, and 41-49 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (13-16 ATS). On the injury front, Schottenheimer & Co have gotten healthier during this successful stretch, with the only major absences expected tonight being that of (oft-injured Cornerback) Trevon Diggs (knee) and (young Offensive Lineman) Tyler Guyton (ankle). Looking ahead, the Cowboys will return home for a visit from the struggling Vikings in primetime, followed by a showdown with the Chargers at AT&T Stadium.
Meanwhile, all is not well in the Motor City, where the Lions (7-5, 3rd in NFC North) are mired in their first 2-game losing streak since early in the 2022 campaign. Indeed, if that doesn’t inform you of just how far this once flailing franchise has come under the direction of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes, then we really don’t know what else to tell you. So, after earning back-to-back division titles, a trip to the 2023 NFC Title Game, and a franchise-best FIFTEEN wins last Fall, what in the name of Billy Sims has happened in Detroit? Well, an alternative meaning for the acronym NFL is Not For Long, as parity continues to run rampant throughout the league. For two years, other teams have been sniffing around the organization in an effort to poach various figures, be it coach or player, so that they could replicate their success. To their credit, Campbell (pictured below) and Holmes managed to fend off the vultures for quite some time, but were ultimately unable to do so in 2025, as they bid farewell to Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who took on the leading roles with the Bears and Jets respectively. However, it wasn’t just those two that the Lions lost, for it was a total of eight assistants altogether, meaning that Campbell had to do a lot of work to get his house in order, eventually promoting (OC) John Morton and (DC) Kelvin Sheppard to those roles. While Sheppard has done a great job with a defense riddled by injury (more on that in a bit), all anyone was concerned about was how the offense would perform without Johnson pulling the strings. After all, we are talking about one of the best in the business, but this is also a unit that is LOADED with talent. Following a dismal 27-13 loss to the Packers in the opener, those fears were eased during a prolific 4-game win streak in which the Lions averaged a robust 40.2 points, including 52 points against Johnson’s Bears. However, things have tailed off since then with just 25.1 points on 384.3 total yards over the last seven games, scoring 30+ points only twice along the way. Furthermore, Campbell wrestled away playcalling duties from Morton in an effort to freshen things up, but apart from an impressive 44-22 victory at reeling Washington, he too has found it hard to find consistency. Detroit looked toothless in a 17-9 loss at the Eagles, before needing a ridiculous 264 yards from scrimmage from (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs to see off the lowly Giants in a 34-27 overtime thriller. Things came to a head in last Thursday’s 31-24 defeat at home to Green Bay, marking the second time in three seasons in which they were bested at home on Thanksgiving by their division rival. Just as they did two years ago, the hosts fell behind early, trailing 17-7 before (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff hit (young Wideout) Jameson Williams for a 22-yard touchdown just before the stroke of halftime. However, the Packers would respond immediately out of intermission with a 51-yard touchdown of their own to reassert their 10-point advantage. Goff struck back with another touchdown, but so did his counterpart, and after settling for a field goal with just under three minutes left in regulation, simply could not get the ball back. When it was all said and done, the Lions may have done enough offensively with 352 total yards, but they were more or less contained in the run game (30 carries for 119 yards) and were turned away on each of their two attempts on fourth down. Goff was 20-of-26 for 256 yards and those two scores, but he was sacked three times and pressured on six occasions, while Gibbs was bottled up for 86 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches. Defensively, Sheppard’s unit just couldn’t get off the field, shipping 359 total yards and conceding 6-of-12 third downs, while failing to stop the visiting side three times on fourth down. And at the end of the day, that proved to be the difference in a game in which both coaches were willing to roll the dice; Campbell, who has long been associated with going for it on fourth, came up short twice, while his counterpart hit the proverbial jackpot.
From a betting perspective, the Lions have been the opposite of their counterpart tonight, posting a 7-5 straight-up ledger with a 6-6 mark ATS, parlaying to a net loss of 0.55 units. This season has seen a major shift in that latter regard, for this is a team that had been arguably the best bet in the NFL over the previous four seasons (49-21-2 ATS), which equates to a stellar win percentage of .680!!! Since arriving in the Motor City back in 2021, Campbell is now 48-35-1 SU and 55-27-2 ATS, including 20-12 ATS at Ford Field, 29-14 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 17-9 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge, 14-5 ATS following a loss, and 28-15 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered just one of their past five outings immediately after shipping over 350 total yards in the previous tilt and are in the midst of a 2-10 stretch ATS at home and coming off an outright loss as a favorite versus an adversary harboring revenge and fresh off of a SUATS victory, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a middling 2-2 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 0-1 as a home favorite, though it should be noted that they have now failed to cover FOUR straight tilts on this particular day of the week, regardless of the time of kickoff. As we touched upon earlier, Detroit trails the all-time series between these clubs (13-19), though did manage to snap a 6-game losing streak with last Fall’s brutal 47-9 blowout of Dallas. Again, this one was ALL Lions, folks, who dominated the visitors on both sides of the football. Offensively, they racked up 492 total yards on 27 first downs, rushing for 184 yards on 34 carries, and possessed the football for a commanding 34:43. Defensively, they relegated the Cowboys to a scant 251 total yards on sixteen first downs, including a mere 53 rushing yards, 3-of-13 on third down, and forced a whopping FIVE turnovers along the way. Gibbs (91 yards from scrimmage) and Montgomery (80 rushing yards, 2 TD) were impactful, while Goff calmly completed 18-of-25 throws for 315 yards and three touchdowns to as many different targets. Furthermore, (Safety) Brian Branch had a pair of interceptions and a forced fumble, while (Defensive Tackle) Alim McNeil logged two sacks and five pressures. Getting back to Goff, the 4-time Pro-Bowler is 3-3 all-time against Big D, completing 65.0% of his passes for 271.3 yards on 7.54 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to six interceptions. As for his ledger on Thursdays, he is 7-6 with 25 touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions. ATS, the Cal product is now 76-56 ATS overall, including 37-28 ATS at home, 48-34 ATS as a favorite, 43-33 ATS versus revenge, 33-21 ATS following a loss, and 50-38 ATS against non-division adversaries. On the injury front, this continues to be a team striving for greater health, what with eleven players on Injured Reserve, while four others are expected to be out of action, including (veteran Safety) Kerby Joseph (knee). However, keep an eye on the status of both (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and (All-Pro Tackle) Penei Sewell (shoulder), who are both listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Lions’ push for the playoffs gets more difficult in next weekend’s trip to SoFi Stadium to battle the Rams, before returning home for a visit from the desperate Steelers.