8:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: North Texas -2.5, Total: 66.5
A spot in the College Football Playoff is on the line tonight in New Orleans, as the North Texas Mean Green battle the (No. 24) Tulane Green Wave in an AAC Championship Game that is being dominated by a pair of outgoing head coaches. That last bit is looming large tonight, folks, as both leading men will be taking their talents to a Power-4 program next Fall, though have been granted the opportunity to stay and coach out their respective side’s campaigns (which is relevant given current events). Beginning with North Texas (11-1, 7-1 in AAC), they will be bidding farewell to (Head Coach) Eric Morris after three transformative years on the job. Indeed, this is a program that is on the rise, for in just their third season in the American Athletic Conference, the Mean Green have won a school-best eleven victories and are favored to win the league tonight, which if they do so, would be a helluva way to send off Morris (pictured below), who has come to an agreement to become the new HC at Oklahoma State. It’s a job well earned by the 40-year-old, who is a real rising star in the profession. If you are not familiar with the native of Littlefield, Texas, this is a guy who has been associated with a lot of successful coaches and players over the past twelve years. Morris cut his teeth under the legendary Mike Leach at Texas Tech before rising to Offensive Coordinator under Kliff Kingsbury, where he played no small part in the development of (2-time NFL MVP) Patrick Mahomes (you may have heard of him), before grooming another prominent QB, (2025 Number One Overall Pick) Cam Ward at Incarnate Word. That eventually led to his transition to UNT, whose own transition to the AAC has gone smoother than anyone could imagine. Given his offensive pedigree, it comes as no surprise that he presides over one of the most prolific attacks in the country; the Mean Green rank first in the FBS in points scored (46.8) on a whopping 511.8 total yards, including 325.7 through the air on the arm of (Redshirt Freshman QB) Drew Mestemaker. In his first season as the starter, Mestemaker leads the AAC in a slew of passing categories, including completion percentage (70.9%), yards (3,825), yards per attempt (10.0), yards per completion (14.2), touchdowns (29), and passer rating (178.2). When we last saw he and his teammates, they hammered Temple in a 52-25 season finale that saw the hosts explode for 605 total yards of offense. Believe it or not, this one was competitive for most of the first quarter, as the Owls stood level with just over a minute left in the period. However, that would be about it, folks, as Morris’ outfit ripped off 28 unanswered points to break the game wide open. When it was all said and done, Mestemaker was a surgical 20-of-24 passing for 366 yards and three touchdowns, with a pair of 100-yard pass-catchers, including Wyatt Young (127 yards) and Cameron Dorner (125 yards, 1 TD). Furthermore, the AAC’s leading rusher, (Freshman Tailback) Caleb Hawkins was at it again with 186 rushing yards and FOUR touchdowns. It was the fifth time in six games in which North Texas passed the 50-point threshold, while cracking 600 total yards for the second time in as many weeks.
From a betting perspective, North Texas finished the regular season at 11-1 straight-up and a stellar 9-2 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 6.18 units, which was the greatest return of any school within the AAC this Fall. As their latter record would suggest, this is a team that has made plenty of bettors happy for quite some time, covering each of their past SIX outings, including last weekend’s romp over Temple (-20.5). During his three seasons in Denton, Morris is 22-15 SU and 21-11-2 ATS overall, including 10-7 ATS away from DATCU Stadium, 15-6 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-3 ATS following a win, and 15-8 ATS versus all opposition residing within the American Athletic. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of a 6-game streak of covers, while also covering SIX consecutive contests immediately after erupting for 40+ points in the previous tilt. The Mean Green have struggled in these midweek affairs though, covering just three of their last eleven weekday games, though it should be noted that they split two such outings this season, hammering Charlotte (54-20) a few weeks after suffering their lone defeat against South Florida (36-63). Looking at this particular matchup, UNT has NEVER beaten Tulane in three all-time encounters, which includes their most recent, a narrow 37-45 meeting from last season. This one wasn’t quite as a close as that final score would lead you to believe, folks, as the hosts trailed by multiple scores throughout the game, including 24-45 late in the fourth quarter before tacking on a pair of consolation touchdowns. When it was all said and done, the two sides combined for 997 total yards and 49 first downs, though the difference was twofold. First, North Texas lost the turnover battle 1-2, both of which were crucial fumbles that robbed them of an opportunity to breach the end zone. Second, the run defense was completely and utterly eviscerated, as the Green Wave trampled them to the tune of 297 rushing yards. It wasn’t for a lack of trying from (Former QB) Chad Morris, who has led Virginia to tomorrow’s ACC Championship Game, posting 449 passing yards and three touchdowns on 38-of-57 throws, while rushing for another score to boot. (Former Wideouts) DT Sheffield (125 yards) and Damon Ward (111 yards) accounted for all three of those passing scores, while another former player (Hybrid Linebacker/Defensive Back) Jaylen Smith, led the team with ten tackles and an interception. Getting back to the present, Morris has a largely healthy team on his hands coming into this one, with the only notable situation being that of (Backup Tailback) Makenzie McGill, who is listed as questionable with an undisclosed malady that saw him inactive in last weekend’s win over the Owls. On the season, the sophomore is second on the team with 389 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Looking ahead, there is an awful lot riding on the outcome of tonight’s AAC Title Game, for a victory will see North Texas capture the automatic bid gifted to Group of 5 teams in the Playoff, while a loss would send them to an undetermined bowl.
Meanwhile, it has been a similar story for (Head Coach) Jon Sumrall and Tulane (10-2, 7-1 in AAC), who have logged double-digit victories for the third time in four years. Like Morris, Sumrall (pictured below) is a Texas native who has done nothing but gradually raise his profile over the course of a successful coaching career that saw him lead Troy to back-to-back Sun Belt Championships, followed by his current tenure in New Orleans. Of course, he will be taking his talents to Gainesville soon, where he will look to return Florida to their place among the elite programs in college football. For those questioning the transition, which is sizable indeed, keep in mind that Sumrall is no stranger to the SEC, having played as a Linebacker at Kentucky (2002-2004) before later spending four seasons as an assistant coach at Ole Miss (2018) and his alma mater (2019-2021). Indeed, he has kept the ball rolling after succeeding the Willie Fritz, though unlike his counterpart tonight, his expertise comes on the opposite side of the football. Last season, the Green Wave held the opposition to 20.6 points per game (24th in FBS) on 323.5 total yards per game, limiting four different adversaries to a season-low in yards. With seven returning starters returning this Fall, they have been roughly comparable on this front, shipping 22.8 points (51st in FBS) on 372.3 total yards, which has been a major reason as to why they have been so good in close games. In fact, the Wave is a perfect 5-0 in contests decided by one score this year. Simply put, this is notable due to all of the turnover that Sumrall had to deal with on an offense that lost its leading passer, rusher, and top-four leading receivers to either graduation or the Transfer Portal. With that being said, the portal is very much a two-way street, as the 43-year-old went shopping for playmakers and found a few, the most significant being (Senior Quarterback) Jake Retzlaff. The BYU transfer was to be suspended for the first seven games of this season due to breaking the Cougars’ rigid honor code (for premarital sex!!!), which led to his departure from Provo, with Sumrall and faithful in New Orleans more than happy to welcome his services. This was a guy that was 11-2 as a starting QB with his previous team, making him one of the most sought-after QBs on the market. In very different surroundings, Retzlaff has served as the fulcrum of Tulane’s attack, completing 62.6% of his throws for 2,717 yards on 8.1 yards per attempt with fourteen touchdowns and six interceptions, while also serving as their leading rusher with 561 yards and another fourteen scores. He and his teammates ended the season in strong fashion with a 27-0 shutout of Charlotte last weekend, overcoming a sloppy performance in which the attack turned it over three times despite outgaining the visitors 463-140 in total yards. This really was a dominant showing as the Wave had 25 first downs to the 49ers’ seven, due in large part to a rushing disparity of 151-3. It was far from the cleanest of performances from Retzlaff, who was picked off twice and tackled behind the line of scrimmage quite a bit, but he did amass 291 passing yards on an efficient 28-of-38 attempts, while rushing for two scores.
From a betting perspective, Tulane may sit just one game behind their opponent tonight straight-up (10-2), but they haven’t come close to being as a rewarding against the spread (5-6-1), equating to a net loss of 1.45 units. This is a team that has covered just two of their last seven outings, failing to do so in last weekend’s finale against Charlotte (-30.5) by a narrow margin. During his two years in New Orleans, Sumrall is 19-7 SU and 12-11-2 ATS overall, including 5-5-1 ATS at Yulman Stadium, 2-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-8-1 ATS following a win, and 9-7-1 ATS versus all opposition residing within the AAC. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of an 0-5-1 run ATS immediately after relegating an opponent below 20 points, while failing to cover four consecutive contests when shipping fewer than 170 passing yards in the previous game. The Green Wave have also gone cold in the month of December, dropping four straight tilts ATS in this particular month, but have covered NINE of their last ten games coming off a double-digit conference home victory, which is the case tonight. With that being said, it should also be noted that they are just 1-10-1 ATS on weekdays versus an adversary harboring revenge, which includes a 1-1-1 ledger ATS in such games this season. As we touched upon earlier, Tulane is undefeated in three all-time meetings against North Texas, who are crossing paths for a third straight year after the latter joined the American Athletic, which includes that aforementioned 45-37 affair from last Fall. Again, don’t be deceived by that scoreline, folks, as Sumrall’s charges led throughout this one, building a 21-3 edge by the end of the first quarter and a 45-24 advantage midway through the final stanza. This one was all about the Green Wave’s ground game, which churned out 297 rushing yards and three touchdowns on an industrious 47 carries, led by (Former Tailback) Makhi Hughes, who transferred to Oregon last Spring, with 195 yards and a score on 30 attempts. It was a strong showing for (Junior Tailback) Arnold Barnes III, who made the most of eleven carries for 78 yards. As for (Former QB) Darian Mensah, who is shining at Duke this season, all he did was throw for three touchdowns on 10-of-13 passing. Flashing back to the present, Sumrall & Co have largely been healthy as well, though keep an eye on the status of (Senior Receiver) Bryce Bohanon, who missed each of the last two games with a lower leg malady and is thus listed as questionable to return tonight. Bohanon ranks fourth in a deep receiving corps with 31 receptions for 417 yards and a pair of touchdowns in ten games this season. Looking ahead, Tulane will punch their ticket to the Playoff with a victory tonight as the obligatory representative from the Group of 5, while a loss would send them to an undetermined bowl.