4:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Georgia -2.5, Total: 47.5
For those enthralled by the continuous drama regarding the looming College Football Playoff, the main pressure point resides in Atlanta, where the (No. 4) Georgia Bulldogs are out for revenge against the (No. 10) Alabama Crimson Tide, in which playoff spots are on the line in this SEC Championship Game from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Between the two sides, this afternoon’s showdown in the ATL doesn’t necessarily mean as much to Georgia (11-1, 7-1 in SEC), who are likely into the tournament no matter the outcome. However, from a pride standpoint, the Bulldogs should be chomping at the bit to avenge their only loss of the campaign. Indeed, it is more than that, folks, for this about rulership of what has been the premier conference in college football for the better part of two decades. (Head Coach) Kirby Smart rose to prominence as an assistant at Alabama, spending eight years as Nick Saban’s righthand man, before returning to Athens where he would turn his alma mater into a juggernaut, eventually unseating the Crimson Tide as alpha of the SEC with back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022. During that run of success, there has really been only one thorn in their side, and it has been ‘Bama, who are responsible for four of the six defeats on their ledger. We are sure that that doesn’t sit well with Smart or anyone in the state of Georgia for that matter. However, it does beg the question: are the Dawgs any better suited to taking a bite out of their persistent adversaries today? Well, that 24-21 loss in Samford Stadium came back on September 27th, meaning that this is a very different team than the one that came up short, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Simply put, UGA have been far more efficient in this regard than they were earlier in the season and the numbers support that claim; in their first four games, (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo’s unit had little trouble moving the football downfield (442.0 total yards), but often fell victim to their own mistakes, committing five turnovers along the way, only to have completely turned that around with seven giveaways over the course of the final eight contests (+1). Unsurprisingly, this stretch has coincided with plenty of growth from (Junior Quarterback) Gunner Stockton. Coming into the season, Smart wasn’t left with many viable options at QB following the departure of the highly touted Carson Beck, who opted to hit the Transfer Portal late in the Winter. Stockton (pictured below) played admirably in place of an injured Beck in last year’s SEC Title Game and in the Playoff, but not well enough to ease concerns in Athens. Thankfully for everyone involved, the native of Tiger, Georgia progressed as the schedule went on, completing an efficient 70.5% of his throws for 210.5 yards per game on 7.7 yards per attempt with fifteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions during this current 8-game win streak, while playing a sizable role in the ground game with another 32.1 rushing yards per contest and five more scores. In fact, last weekend’s hard-fought 16-9 victory over (bitter rival) Georgia Tech snapped a streak of ten consecutive games in which he had completed over 62.0% of his passes. As those around the program refer to the rivalry as Clean Old-Fashioned Hate, this latest chapter lived up to its name as both combatants failed to crack 275 total yards of offense, while committing one turnover apiece. This one came down to the run game, folks, and it was the Bulldogs that imposed their will on their foe, rushing for a commanding 190 yards on 46 carries in what was a rain-soaked affair. (Sophomore Tailback) Nate Frazier led the way with 108 yards on sixteen attempts, while Stockton provided another 42 yards of his own on fifteen carries. From a passing perspective, he hit on just 11-of-21 throws for a mere 70 yards, though his 7-yard strike to (USC transfer) Zachariah Branch served as the lone touchdown of the evening.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be sitting at 11-1 straight-up, but they haven’t come close to turning a profit against the spread (5-6), resulting in a net loss of 1.45 units. Then again, that list bit shouldn’t come as a surprise to seasoned bettors, for this is a team that has failed to return a profit in each of the previous two campaigns (9-17 ATS) and is well on their way towards making it a third. Granted, a lot of that has had to do with their status as a true powerhouse who is routinely favored by a sizable number of points; since 2023, they are 4-15 ATS in all lined games in which they are favored by at least fourteen points, including 1-3 this Fall. Now in his tenth season at his alma mater, Smart is a stellar 116-20 SU and 79-58 ATS overall, including 24-18 ATS away from Athens, 59-53 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-5 ATS when harboring revenge, 52-51 ATS following a win, and 50-40 ATS versus all opposition residing within the SEC. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered five of their last six conference games, though are in the midst of a 1-4 stretch ATS at neutral sites, with a 6-17 ledger ATS over their past 23 outings immediately following a victory. They have also failed to cover all but one of their last ten contests after relegating an opponent to fewer than 275 total yards, which is the case this afternoon. However, here is the biggest trend siding in their favor, folks: the Dawgs are a staggering 16-2 ATS as conference favorites with revenge, which is also the case in this SEC Title Game. Of course, when these teams crossed paths back in late September, UGA suffered their only defeat of the campaign, which was their third straight against Alabama dating back to 2023. Indeed, this 24-21 affair was as close as the final score would suggest, though it should be noted that Smart & Co never led at any point of the affair. Trailing 14-0 early in the second quarter, the hosts got on the board via a 38-yard touchdown strike from Stockton to (Senior Wideout) Colbie Young, while a short jaunt into the end zone courtesy of (Freshman Tailback) Chauncey Bowens cut the deficit to three points just before halftime. However, Georgia conceded roughly ninety seconds of game time later, entering intermission in a 24-14 hole. From there, Smart’s defense did their job in shutting out the Crimson Tide post-intermission, though their teammates on the opposite side of the football could get no closer after another touchdown run, this time from (Illinois transfer) Josh McCray with 6:30 left in the third period. Unfortunately, Stockton simply couldn’t get over the proverbial hump, going three-and-out immediately after his defense turned ‘Bama over on downs, before failing to convert on a 4th & 1 deep in the red zone. When it was all said and done, this one came down to crushing mistakes by the home side. That failed fourth down try was debilitating, but losing a fumble at their own 9-yard line earlier in the night was just as damaging, as the visitors ultimately settled for a chip-shot field goal, which ultimately proved to be the difference in the game. In the end, Stockton totaled a meager 130 passing yards and a touchdown on 13-of-20 attempts, while Bowens led the rushing effort with 119 yards and a score on just eleven carries. On the injury front, keep an eye on both Bowens (undisclosed) and Young (ankle), who are each listed as questionable with various maladies, particularly the former, who missed the previous two games. Looking ahead, a win tonight will guarantee Georgia a first-round bye in the Playoff, while a loss will in all likelihood see them remain in the tournament field, though their trek towards claiming a third national championship since 2021 becomes far more arduous.
Meanwhile, there is FAR more pressure on Alabama (10-2, 7-1 in SEC) in this afternoon’s SEC Title Game for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, (Head Coach) Kalen DeBoer is gunning for his first trophy since he arrived in Tuscaloosa last season, which is paramount for a guy who is succeeding the legendary Saban, who won SIX national titles during his reign of terror. No matter how successful DeBoer is during his time with the program, he will always be measured against the dominance of his predecessor, while winning the conference and getting into the Playoff after failing to do so in his first year on the job would go a long way towards quieting one of the most demanding fanbases in the sport. Of course, this showdown in Atlanta is absolutely pivotal towards doing so. After suffering a stunning 31-17 defeat at unranked Florida State in the season opener, the Crimson Tide managed to collect themselves and win each of their next eight games, before crashing back down to Earth in a narrow 23-21 loss at Oklahoma. On the outside looking in at both the Playoff and the SEC Title Game, ‘Bama was thrown a lifeline in the form of (No. 3) Texas A&M ‘s upset at the hands of Texas on Black Friday. Inspired by opportunity, they survived a manic rally from (bitter rival) Auburn in last weekend’s Iron Bowl to book a trip to today’s conference championship. Again, if they best the Bulldogs for the second time in just over two months, then they will earn an automatic bid into the Playoff, very likely securing a bye in the first round to boot. However, if they do happen to meet defeat, then they will be at the mercy of the Playoff Committee, which after the past few weeks, is a position that nobody really wants to be in. So, how can they get the job done, you ask? Well, in their two meetings with Georgia during the DeBoer era, they really should lean into what they do well, which is spread their adversaries out and throw the football all over the field. If you paid attention to the job that DeBoer did at Washington, then it should come as no surprise that he has put together such an effective aerial attack in Tuscaloosa; Alabama rank eighteenth in the FBS in passing yards (278.3) and forty-fourth in yards per attempt (8.30), thanks in large part to the play of (Junior Quarterback) Ty Simpson and a triumvirate of Receivers consisting of Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton. After three years of patiently waiting for his opportunity to start, Simpson (pictured below) has certainly made the most of things with a completion percentage of 65.8%, 3,056 passing yards, and 25 touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions. Armed with a quick release, clean mechanics, and an accurate touch, he has been the perfect triggerman for an offense that has passed the ball more frequently than any other team in the SEC. Simpson & Co earned every bit of their 27-20 triumph over Auburn last Saturday, bouncing back after the hosts managed to finally draw level midway through the fourth quarter. With the game tied at 20-20, the visitors responded with a lengthy 15-play, 75-yard drive that bled over seven minutes off the game clock, though when facing a crucial 4th & 6 with 3:50 remaining in regulation, DeBoer eschewed the opportunity to take a 3-point lead with a field goal and went for it as Simpson hit Bernard for a defiant touchdown in the back of the end zone. In the end, ‘Bama overcame a 131-yard deficit in total yards to pull through, due in large part to balanced playcalling from DeBoer (158 rushing yards on 38 carries) and a pair of takeaways from the defense. Getting back to Simpson, he finished with just 122 yards passing on 19-of-35 attempts, but was decisive with three touchdowns and no turnovers, as all three scores came courtesy of the aforementioned Horton.
From a betting perspective, Alabama comes into this afternoon’s SEC Title Game at 10-2 straight-up, though they have been far more rewarding against the spread (6-3-2) than their opponent, equating to a net profit of 2.45 units. With that being said, this is a team that has cooled off significantly following their torrid 5-1-1 start ATS, covering just two of their past five games (2-2-1 ATS). In his brief time in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer is now 19-6 SU and 9-8-2 ATS overall, including 3-5-2 ATS away from Bryant-Denney Stadium, 2-0 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 6-4-2 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 8-8-1 ATS when coming off a win, and 8-6-2 AST versus all opposition residing within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops are 7-1-1 ATS against a foe who is fresh off of back-to-back victories and have covered five consecutive contests after being held below 170 passing yards in the previous tilt. The Crimson Tide have also really handled their business in the month of December, covering all but one of their past five outings in the ultimate month of the calendar year. Then there is the matter of this powerhouse among powerhouses being an underdog for only the seventh time since 2015. Remarkably, the Tide went an insane 92 straight games as a favorite during the prime of the Nick Saban era and are 5-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers over the past eleven seasons. Interestingly, all but one of those affairs have come against Georgia, whom they have more or less owned during the Kirby Smart era, posting a 4-1 ledger SUATS versus the Bulldogs. All-time, Alabama owns a commanding 45-23-3 SU edge, covering the spread in four of the last five encounters, including that aforementioned 24-21 triumph in Athens back in late September. Similar to their matchup from the previous campaign, the Crimson Tide really exploited their adversary’s pass defense, as Simpson racked up 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 24-of-38 passing, while even rushing for a short score just before the stroke of halftime. With that being said, this showdown could have been even more in the visitors’ favor had it not been for numerous self-inflicted wounds; DeBoer’s charges couldn’t get out of their own way in the second half, missing a 43-yard field goal on the opening drive, followed a turnover on downs just beyond midfield, and a three-and out on their final drive of the third period. As the Dawgs cut the deficit to three points, (Defensive Coordinator) Kane Wommack’s unit came up huge on a 4th & 1 stop at the 8-yard line, preventing their opponent from potentially tying or taking the lead. On the injury front, keep an eye on the status of (Senior Tailback) Jamarion Miller (leg) and (Tight End) Josh Cuevas (foot), who are both listed as questionable for this top-10 battle in Atlanta. The former enjoyed a strong performance with 83 rushing yards on fifteen carries in last weekend’s Iron Bowl conquest, while the latter, a transfer from Washington who has been a reliable safety valve with 30 receptions for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns, has missed the last two outings with a nagging foot. Looking ahead, if Alabama happen to win their thirty-first SEC Title this afternoon, then they well could earn a first-round bye in the Playoff. However, a loss to Georgia could prove fatal, as they could crash out of the top-12 of the rankings altogether despite their being persistent discourse that they could still remain in the tourney field with three losses.