4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Packers -7, Total: 44.5
In a week ripe with palpable matchups full of playoff implications, our attention has been drawn to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field where the NFL’s oldest rivalry is set to add its most relevant chapter since the 2010 NFC Championship Game, as the Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers. Oh, what a difference a year has made for the Bears (9-3, 1st in NFC North), who currently own the top seed in the NFC. Of course, this franchise was in a very different position last season, in which they wasted an inspiring 4-2 start by losing TEN consecutive contests, prompting a reset by management. (General Manager) Ryan Poles managed to avoid the chopping block due in large part to assembling a talented roster that was just waiting for the right coach to unlock their potential, which is precisely what he found in the form of (Head Coach) Ben Johnson. By now, we all know the story with Johnson, who had emerged as the NFL’s latest offensive mastermind during his tenure with (division rival) Detroit, rebuking advances from suitors for years before finally choosing Chicago, which has been nothing short of a coup for an organization that has been stuck in the proverbial wilderness for quite some time. So, what has Johnson done to turn things around, you ask? Well, there are very few coaches who are as good at designing an offense and calling plays than the 39-year-old, who has evolved this unit into one that resembles the early days of his previous employers. The Bears rank eighth in points scored (26.1) and sixth in total yards (384.7), second in rushing yards (153.8) and fifth on third down (43.9%), all the while committing the fifth-fewest turnovers (9). From day one, he and Poles made a commitment to running the ball as they completely renovated the interior of one of the worst Offensive Lines in the league, adding veterans such as (Guards) Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney alongside (Center) Drew Dalman. Of course, this has facilitated an immense amount of growth from (Sophomore Quarterback) Caleb Williams, who has been cited as the primary reason that Johnson accepted the job in the first place. The number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams (pictured below) endured a rough ride as a rookie last Fall, though is flourishing under the guidance of his new HC; the 2022 Heisman may be completing a lower percentage of his throws (58.1%), but he has been far more impactful with 226.8 yards per game on a vastly-improved 6.26 net yards per attempt, up from 4.88 last season. Granted, he was sacked a league-worst 68 times in 2024, while trimming that number to just nineteen sacks in 2025. While the changes in his protection have certainly helped, he is also getting the ball out of his hands much quicker, which comes down to coaching, as Johnson has persistently encouraged him to settle for the open man instead of bullishly holding onto the ball in an effort to wait for targets to get open downfield. There has also been a steep increase in the use of play-action, which is another trope that he has imported from his success in Detroit; after totaling 85 pass attempts out of play-action for 626 yards last Fall, Williams has cleared that figure in five fewer games, racking up 859 yards on 113 attempts. All of this came to a head in last week’s stunning 24-15 upset of the Eagles on Black Friday. Simply put, this was the most impressive performance that we’ve seen from Da Bears in ages, as they stormed into Philadelphia and manhandled the defending Super Bowl Champions. Chicago outgained the hosts 425-317 in total yards on the strength of a dominant rushing performance in which they racked up 281 yards on an industrious 47 carries, leading to a commanding edge in time of possession (39:18). Basically, they out-eagled the Eagles, folks. (Tailbacks) Kyle Monangai (130 yards) and (former Eagle) D’Andre Swift (125 yards) each rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown, while Williams hit on 17-of-36 passes for 154 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
From a betting perspective, the Bears may be 9-3 straight-up thus far, but they have also been one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL against the spread (7-4-1), returning a net profit of 2.36 units. This is a group that has really settled into a groove after a disappointing 0-2 start on both fronts, covering all but three of their past ten games, including that surprising upset of the reigning Super Bowl Champions (+7). In his first season in the Windy City, Johnson is now 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS overall, including 5-2 ATS away from Soldier Field, 5-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-2-1 ATS following a win, and 1-2 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops are a perfect 5-0 ATS against an adversary with a winning record, 4-0 ATS immediately after amassing 350+ total yards of offense, and 6-1 ATS over their past seven tilts played on natural grass. With that being said, Chicago has failed to cover four consecutive contests after relegating a foe below 90 rushing yards, are in the midst of a 1-5-1 run ATS following a rushing performance of 150+ yards, and have covered just five out of seventeen games against division rivals when doing so after a non-division affair, which is the case this evening. As we touched upon in the opening, this is the oldest and most-played rivalry in the NFL, dating all the way back to 1921, with Da Bears trailing the all-time series 96-108-6 SU, while their narrow 24-22 victory at Lambeau in last season’s finale snapped an 11-game losing streak against the Cheeseheads. This one was every bit as close as that final score would lead you to believe, folks, as the visitors very nearly blew a 21-13 advantage late in the fourth quarter; Green Bay pulled ahead by way of a 55-yard field goal to take a 1-point lead with 0:55 left in regulation, but the aforementioned Williams struck back with a pair of key completions of 15+ yards to set up (veteran Kicker) Cairo Santos’ game-winner from 51 yards out. When it was all said and done, Chicago was outgained 367-224 in total yards, including 183-83 on the ground, but managed to stay on the field by moving the chains (7-of-14 on third down) and were level on turnovers (2-2), while stopping the Packers on a key 4th & 3 that eventually led to a 32-yard touchdown via (veteran Wideout) D.J. Moore from Williams. Speaking of the former top overall pick, he completed an efficient 21-of-29 throws for 148 yards and that score, while Moore made up for a lost fumble with a team-high 86 receiving yards and said touchdown on nine receptions. (Veteran Safety) Kevin Byard was busy as well, logging fourteen tackles, a sack and a forced fumble. Getting back to Williams, he is 1-1 against the Packers thus far, completing 73.3% of his passes for 189.5 yards per game on 5.88 net yards per attempt, with a touchdown while rushing for a total of 80 yards on a dozen carries. As for his ledger ATS, the USC product is now 15-11-1 ATS overall, including 8-7 ATS on the road, 11-8 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS following a win, 5-2-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, and 4-3 ATS versus division rivals, with his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (7-7 ATS). On the injury front, Johnson has nine players currently on Injured Reserve, chief among them being (veteran Linebacker) Tremaine Edmunds (groin), while three other players are expected to miss today’s trip to Lambeau, including (Sophomore Wideout) Rome Odunze (foot) and (young Cornerback) Tyrique Stevenson (hip). Looking ahead, the Bears will return to Soldier Field for a 2-game homestand against the struggling Browns followed by a rematch with these same Packers, which could very well decide the NFC North.
Meanwhile, everything is within the grasp of the Packers (8-3-1, 2nd in NFC North) with five games remaining in the regular season. Coming into this showdown with Chicago, they currently sit a half game behind their bitter rivals not only for the lead in the division, but the NFC as a whole. Granted, that tie (a wild 40-40 shootout in Dallas) may ultimately come back to haunt them, but it is awfully hard not to feel like Green Bay is in the midst of a season-defining run. After acquiring the services of (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons in a shocking trade shortly before the campaign kicked off, these Cheeseheads vaulted towards the upper echelon of contenders in the NFC, viewed by many as the prime adversary to the Eagles bid for a repeat. However, consistency has been their most persistent issue, for this is a team that would look utterly dominant for two weeks before appearing complacent and unable to flip the switch for another two games. Case in point: after manhandling the Lions (27-13) and Commanders (27-18) in succession to begin the campaign, they proceeded to lay an egg at the lowly Browns (10-13) before settling for that tie against the Cowboys. Then they’ll get up to defeat (former QB) Aaron Rodgers in a 35-25 primetime drubbing of the Steelers, only to fall to the Panthers at home (10-16) a week later. So, will the real Packers please stand up? It has been a proverbial gordian knot that needs to be cut by (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur, though this current 3-game winning streak has seen them on the verge of putting it altogether. First, they came back in the fourth quarter to escape an upset at the hands of the struggling Giants (27-20), before smothering their division rival, the Vikings, in 23-6 affair at Lambeau. Then came last week’s Thanksgiving Day battle with the Lions, which saw the visitors storm into Ford Field and ruin the holiday for a second time in three years. Just as they did in 2023, Green Bay raced out to an early lead, building a 10-0 advantage in the first quarter. From there, they answered in kind every time that Detroit found the end zone, as (veteran Quarterback) Jordan Love totaled FOUR passing touchdowns on the afternoon. When it was all said and done, the Cheeseheads may have outgained their foe by a mere seven yards, but they proved victorious by keeping the chains moving, converting a healthy 6-of-12 third downs, while hitting on a decisive 3-of-3 fourth downs. Indeed, LaFleur took a page out of his counterpart’s book and continued to roll the dice in an effort to keep his opponent’s high-powered offense off the field, which was a strategy that paid off handsomely as Love (pictured below) found (Wideout) Dontayvion Wicks for a 22-yard touchdown on a 4th & 3 early in the second quarter, before hitting (Receiver) Romeo Doubs for a short score on a 4th & 1 just outside of the 2-minute warning. Then, the final conversion also came down to Love and Wicks, who connected for a 16-yard completion on a 4th & 3 at midfield with 1:55 left, effectively ending the game altogether. Love was 18-of-30 passing for 234 yards and those four scores, while Wicks reeled in six of seven targets for 94 yards. And then there was (fellow Receiver) Christian Watson, who has been on fire since returning from injury; after missing the first six games, Watson (pictured below alongside Love) has amassed 45+ yards in every contest, including 80 yards and a 51-yard touchdown against Detroit.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may not be far behind their bitter rivals straight-up (8-3-1), but they haven’t come close to as rewarding against the spread (5-7), equating to a net loss of 2.45 units. This is a team that may be earning back some backers in the betting community following their catastrophic 1-7 run ATS, covering each of their past two outings, including that Thanksgiving Day triumph over the Lions (+2.5). Since arriving in Eastern Wisconsin back in 2019, LaFleur is now 78-41-1 SU and 66-53-1 ATS overall, including 36-23 ATS at Lambeau Field, 42-41 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 41-33 ATS following a win, and 22-16 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered TWELVE of their last fourteen home games when coming off a division victory, but are also in the midst of a 1-4 stretch ATS at home against an adversary owning a winning road record. Green Bay is 11-2 ATS as home favorites of more than four points versus a division rival who is above .500, which is the case this evening. Again, this rivalry with the Bears is the oldest in league history with over 100 years of hate between these two franchises, as the Cheeseheads own a 108-96-6 edge in the all-time series. Believe it or not, they actually lagged behind their bitter foes from the Windy City, only to completely swing things in their favor with a commanding TWENTY-SIX wins over the past thirty meetings. That dominance has extended to covering the spread, as the Packers are 35-15-1 ATS over the last 51 encounters, which includes a 5-1-mark ATS in the last six played at Lambeau. The two affairs from last season were very close, folks, decided by a combined THREE points. When they met in the first leg at Soldier Field, a late rushing touchdown courtesy of Love capped a fourth quarter rally to capture a 20-19 victory, while that aforementioned 24-22 affair in the finale at Lambeau saw the hosts capitulate after a 55-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Greg McManus with just under a minute remaining, with a pair of defensive penalties aiding their opponent’s final drive to kick the game-winner. Over the course of his career, Love is 3-1 against the Bears, completing 70.4% of his throws for an average of 222.8 yards on 9.93 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to one interception, while rushing for that lone score. As for his career ledger ATS, the Utah State product is now a middling 23-23 ATS overall, including 12-10 ATS at home, 12-15 ATS as a favorite, 16-11 ATS following a win, 8-8 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories, and 7-7 ATS versus division rivals (3-0 ATS this season). On the injury front, LaFleur & Co have been dealing with a swath of injuries of late, as six players are currently on Injured Reserve, including (Sophomore Tight End) Tucker Kraft (knee), (veteran Guard) Elgton Jenkins (lower body), and (Defensive End) DeVonte Wyatt (ankle). Furthermore, FIVE more players have been pronounced out of action today, with an equal number listed as questionable, the most notable being (veteran Nickelback) Nate Hobbs (knee) and (young Wideout) Jayden Reed (foot), with the latter potentially returning after a 10-game absence. Looking ahead, the Packers will travel to Mile High next weekend for a potential Super Bowl preview with the surging Broncos, before heading on over to the Windy City for the return leg against the Bears, which could very well see them in the proverbial driver’s seat in the NFC North.