8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Buccaneers -4.5, Total: 44.5
Week 15 kicks off tonight on Florida’s Gulf Coast in a battle between two desperate rivals who are staring down two very different fates, as the fading Atlanta Falcons look to secure only their second win in nine games, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are smarting after suffering a fourth loss in five contests. At this point of any season, the job security of many head coaches comes into question, which is unfortunately the case for Raheem Morris and his Falcons (4-9, 3rd in NFC South). After finishing 8-9 in his first year on the job, there was tepid optimism that his troops were in pole position to overtake their opponent tonight for what would be their first division crown since 2016, which was ironically the last time that the franchise advanced to a Super Bowl. Indeed, Morris (pictured below) and (General Manager) Terry Fontenot spent much of the offseason addressing their needs on the defensive side of the football, particularly the pass-rush, adding (Edges) Jalon Walker and James Pearce with their two selections in the first round of last Spring’s NFL Draft. While they have certainly improved in that area with twelve more sacks in four fewer games, Atlanta has regressed in many others, particularly an offense that is littered with premium picks and a Special Teams unit that has quite frankly been a disaster this Fall. In regard to the attack, (Sophomore Quarterback) Michael Penix was expected to make a leap in his first full season as the starter, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Bijan Robinson was coming off a 1,456-yard rushing campaign. Unfortunately, this unit has completely failed to become anywhere close to greater than the sum of their considerable parts, ranking twenty-seventh in points (19.4), sixteenth in total yards (341.1), thirty-first on third down (31.0%), and seventeenth in the red zone (57.9%). Granted, Robinson ranks third overall with 1,081 rushing yards, but he has also carried quite the load in the passing game (56 catches for 602 yards) despite the presence of a pair of top-10 picks, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. This is where Penix’s lack of development comes into play, with last year’s eighth overall pick struggling throughout his nine starts, completing 60.1% of his passes for 220.2 yards on 6.51 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns opposed to three interceptions and a QBR of 56.7. And that was before he suffered what is in all likelihood a season-ending knee injury, which should sound the alarms in Atlanta given his extensive history on that front, leaving (veteran QB) Kirk Cousins to step in and lead the way. At 37-years old, Cousins really isn’t the man for this job, particularly when you consider how hard he fell off down the stretch last Fall. As a result, the losing has continued for these dirty birds, who have dropped seven of their last eight outings, four of which coming by six points or less. And this is where the Special Teams issues have really killed them; the Falcons rank twenty-ninth overall in kickoff coverage at 29.8 yards per return, while they have made repeated gaffes in their handling of punts, including an utterly critical muffed punt by (veteran) Jamal Agnew in a glaring 27-24 loss to the Jets two weeks ago. As for the kicking game, Morris has gone through three different Kickers thus far, leading to a success rate of 74.2% (31st Overall), as their current Kicker, Zane Gonzalez missed a 50-yard field goal in that same affair. Then again, last weekend’s 37-9 pummeling at the hands of Seattle was just an ugly loss on all fronts; before their home crowd, Atlanta was outgained 365-274 in total yards and went an abysmal 1-of-13 on third down, while committing three turnovers on the afternoon. Against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, Cousins completed just half of his passes (15-of-30) and was picked off twice, while Robinson lost a fumble to boot. Simply put, this team shouldn’t be this bad, with somebody likely to take the Fall come the new year. Will it be Morris, Fontenot, (Offensive Coordinator) Zac Robinson, or all of the above? Only (longtime Owner) Arthur Blank has the answer…
From a betting perspective, the Falcons may be a disappointing 4-9 straight-up thus far, but they have been a better side against the spread (6-7), equating to a net loss of 1.55 units. This is a team while appearing to be bottoming out during this miserable 8-game stretch, has covered three games along the way, though failed to do so in last weekend’s ugly loss to the Seahawks (+7). Since returning to the ATL four years after serving as Interim Coach following the dismissal of Dan Quinn, Morris is now 16-25 SU and 19-22 ATS, including 11-10 ATS away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 11-11 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-13 ATS when harboring revenge, 13-10 ATS following a loss, and 1-1 ATS after shipping 35+ points, and 6-9 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC South. Furthermore, his troops have covered four consecutive contests immediately after suffering a double-digit defeat at home, are 12-1 ATS as an underdog versus division rivals who are coming off a loss, and have covered twelve of their last sixteen division affairs against an adversary fresh off defeat, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a stellar 13-6 ATS on Thursday Night Football, including 3-1 ATS as a road dog. Looking at this particular matchup, the all-time series between these two rivals is deadlocked at 32-32, though Atlanta has taken four of the past six meetings, including each of them from last season. One of those was a wild 36-30 overtime affair on TNF, in which Cousins erupted for 504 passing yards and four touchdowns on 42-of-58 throws, tossing the game-winning 45-yard score to (seldom-used Wideout) KahDarel Hodge in OT. When they met three weeks later, the outcome was the same (31-26), as the veteran QB rifled another four touchdowns, hitting on 23-of-29 passes for 276 yards. However, when they crossed paths in his past September’s opener, Morris’ charges capitulated in heartbreaking fashion after taking the lead with just 2:19 left in regulation, falling to a 23-20 defeat. Despite outgaining the visitors 358-260 in total yards, converting 3-of-4 fourth downs, and possessing the ball for a commanding 35:12 of action, the hosts found a way to lose this one, as (former Kicker) Younghoe Koo’s game-tying attempt from 44 yards sailed wide of the target. Getting back to Cousins, he is 3-2 all-time against the Bucs, completing 74.5% of his throws for an average of 334.2 yards on 7.44 net yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns opposed to just a pair of interceptions, though he has lost four fumbles along the way. On TNF, the Michigan State product hasn’t been great (5-6), averaging 328.2 yards on 7.60 net yards per attempt, with 25 touchdowns and seventeen total turnovers. ATS, Cousins is now 79-83 ATS overall, including 43-35 ATS on the road, 38-38 ATS as a dog, 38-46 ATS with revenge, 42-31 ATS following a loss, 19-10 ATS coming off back-to-back defeats, and 30-28 ATS versus division rivals. On the injury front, Morris currently has eleven players on Injured Reserve, chief among them being (Right Tackle) Kaleb McGary (leg) and the aforementioned Penix (knee), with the latter unlikely to return this season. The defense could be without a number of contributors, with the likes of (Defensive Linemen) Brandon Dorlus (groin) and David Onyemata (foot), (Cornerback) A.J. Terrell (neck), and the aforementioned Walker (quadricep) all listed as questionable after being limited throughout the brief week of practice with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Falcons will remain on the road for a trip to the desert where the struggling Cardinals await, before returning home for a visit from the mighty Rams, which will serve as a reunion for Morris, who won a Super Bowl as their Defensive Coordinator in 2021.
Meanwhile, it hasn’t been as dire a stretch for the Buccaneers (7-6, 1st in NFC South), who have won just one game since their bye week in early November, but they harbor admittedly much higher expectations for themselves. After all, this is a team that has won each of the last four division crowns and came into this season as the favorites for a fifth, while also serving as dark horse contenders to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX. Tampa Bay got off to a promising enough start, winning six of their first eight contests before heading into that bye, but have since struggled to maintain their early season form and are on the verge of relinquishing their lead in the NFC South. So, what in the name of Mike Alstott has happened in Tampa, you ask? Well, there have been two major factors at play here, folks, namely a rotating door at Offensive Coordinator along with numerous injuries to key personnel that have piled up throughout the campaign. On that first front, it really is fascinating given how successful the offense, particularly (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield, have performed despite having three different playcallers in as many years. Indeed, each of their previous two OCs, Dave Canales and Liam Coen, went on to become HCs after just one year of coordinating the attack, with Mayfield (pictured below) enjoying a career renaissance; the former number one overall pick erupted for a career-high 41 touchdowns last season and was viewed by many as the favorite for MVP honors in October. With that in mind, the expectation was that the offense would continue to function at a high level under the direction of Josh Grizzard, whom (Head Coach) Todd Bowles promoted from Pass Game Coordinator. However, that really hasn’t been the case as the Bucs have regressed on this side of the ball, ranking seventeenth in points (23.0), twenty-second in total yards (319.4), twentieth in both passing yards (204.2) and rushing yards (115.2), along with nineteenth on third down (38.4%), and twenty-fifth in the red zone (50.0%). Injuries at virtually every position group have really impacted this unit, which has been unable to compensate for a defense that continues to fade from its strong start. During this 5-game malaise, the Buccaneers have shipped 29.4 points on 365.6 total yards, including 252.2 passing yards on 7.81 net yards per attempt. The pass-rush (7 sacks) hasn’t gotten home nearly enough, while their foes have kept the chains moving at a success rate of 42.6% on third down. As for the offense, a depleted unit has been able to muster just 20.4 points per game on a meager 302.2 total yards, with Mayfield, who has been beset by a sprain in the AC joint of his non-throwing shoulder, visibly struggling to complete 57.1% of his throws for 160.6 yards on just 5.18 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. Last weekend’s 24-20 upset loss at home to the lowly Saints turned out to be rock bottom for a team that has been leaking oil for weeks. In an affair heavily influenced by pouring rain, the hosts couldn’t pull away after building an early lead, collapsing in the second half as New Orleans went on a 17-7 run to take the lead. The Bucs would turn it over on downs twice on their final three possessions, as a potential touchdown from Mayfield to (Rookie Receiver) Emeka Egbuka could have won the game, but the slick pigskin proved to be too difficult to haul in. When it was all said and done, there just wasn’t enough juice in an offense that could muster just 301 total yards and converted 3-of-13 third downs. Interestingly, Bowles went for it on fourth down SEVEN times, though was successful just twice, which sums up the afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. Mayfield finished with 122 yards on 14-of-30 passing with a touchdown and an interception, though did rush for 42 yards on six carries. In his second game back following a lengthy spell on IR, (Sophomore Tailback) Bucky Irving amassed 81 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on seventeen touches.
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers come into tonight’s matchup at 7-6 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding at all against the spread (5-8), parlaying to a net loss of 3.45 units. Needless to say, this has been a sharp turn for a team that had been something of a betting darling on that front since 2023 (27-18 ATS) prior to this current 5-game streak without a cover. Since taking over the team in 2022, Bowles is now 35-33 SU and 31-36-1 ATS overall, including 10-21 ATS at Raymond James Stadium, 14-21 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-22 versus a foe harboring revenge, 13-15 ATS following a loss, and 9-12 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC South. Furthermore, his troops have proved to be a resilient bunch, covering ten of their last fourteen outings following a SU defeat, while matching that ledger immediately after relegating an adversary below 150 passing yards. However, Tampa Bay is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak ATS after rushing for 150+ yards in the previous game, while failing to cover each of their last four tilts that have come after a non-cover. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that has routinely struggled on Thursday Night Football (3-12 ATS), including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. As we touched upon earlier, the overall series between them and the Falcons couldn’t be closer (38-38 SU), with the road team covering four of the last five meetings, while the Bucs are just 3-7 ATS over the past ten encounters. That aforementioned 23-20 triumph in September’s opener snapped a 2-game losing streak to Atlanta, though it would take another clutch performance from Mayfield to do so. Trailing 20-17 with just over two minutes left in regulation, the veteran gunslinger led the visitors on a furious 63-yard drive in five plays, hitting Egbuka for a 25-yard touchdown to take the lead with 59 seconds immediately after the hosts were penalized for roughing the passer. However, this one wasn’t without its drama, folks, as Atlanta swiftly moved into Tampa territory, setting up for a potential 44-yard field goal to force overtime, only to miss the attempt altogether. When it was all said and done, the visiting side made the most of their limited opportunities (24:48 of possession), as Mayfield tossed three touchdowns, two of which went to the rookie out of Ohio State. Speaking of Baker, he is 3-3 all-time against the dirty birds, completing 66.5% of his throws for an average of 218.7 yards on 6.47 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 24.5 yards and one more score. His ledger has been better on TNF (4-2), tossing ten touchdowns in comparison to only one interception. ATS, the Heisman-winner is now 56-63 ATS overall, including 22-35 ATS at home, 19-33 ATS as a favorite, 22-24 ATS versus revenge, 26-24 ATS following a loss, and 17-22 ATS against division rivals, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (12-24 ATS). On the injury front, Bowles may have just seven players on Injured Reserve, but that doesn’t mean his team has been clear in this regard as TEN different players are listed as either out or questionable for tonight’s midweek affair. Starters such as (Left Tackle) Tristan Wirfs (oblique) along with (veteran Wideouts) Mike Evans (collarbone) and Chris Godwin (fibula) have practiced on a limited basis, while (Defensive Backs) Christian Izien (neck) and Tykee Smith (neck), (Edge) Haason Reddick (ankle), (Linebacker) SirVocea Dennis (hip), (Tight End) Cade Otton (knee), and (Offensive Lineman) Ben Brederson (knee) all have yet to practice and are likely out of action. However, there is some good news in this regard, as Evans is likely to return after being sidelined him for seven weeks. The 6-time Pro-Bowler will see his NFL record of ELEVEN consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin a career snapped after playing in just four games this year, totaling 140 yards and a touchdown on fourteen catches. Looking ahead, the Buccaneers will finally cross paths with the upstart Panthers, who are hot on their heels in the NFC South, meeting twice in the final three weeks of the campaign, with the first leg coming in Charlotte next weekend.