4:25 PM EST, CBS/Paramount – Spread: Packers -2.5, Total: 43.5
A rematch of Super Bowls past highlights a Week 15 littered with playoff implications, as the surging Green Bay Packers travel to Mile High to battle the AFC’s joint top seed, the Denver Broncos, who are riding high on a 10-game win streak. After months of flirting with the idea of being a Super Bowl contender, it appears that the Packers (9-3-1, 1st in NFC North) are finally emerging as the team that many of us thought they would be all along. Green Bay made waves coming into the campaign when they acquired (All-Pro Edge) Micah Parsons in a blockbuster deal with the Cowboys roughly a week before the opener, and while their defense has been nothing short of stellar thus far, ranking sixth in points allowed (19.0) and fifth in total yards permitted (287.1), it has been the offense that struggled to become greater than the sum of their parts, which has made consistency something that has been difficult for these Cheeseheads to obtain. It really has been a veritable rollercoaster for the Pack, who have dominated the likes of the Lions (27-13) and Commanders (27-18) in successive weeks, only to fall flat in a road trip to Cleveland (10-13) and end level in a wild shootout in Dallas (40-40). Then they embarrassed (former QB) Aaron Rodgers in a 35-25 primetime victory in Pittsburgh, only to turn right around and get upset by the young Panthers in a 13-16 affair at Lambeau. So, what in the name of Vince Lombardi has been going on in Eastern Wisconsin, you ask? Well, a lot of this inconsistency in the attack has come down to health. (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur has a rather complex offense in which many of its pieces perform in specific roles. Simply put, when one or two of these components are missing, the machine doesn’t function as efficiently, but when everyone is available, they can be downright devastating. With that being said, it is no coincidence that this current 4-game win streak has come with a cleaner bill of health. Over the past four weeks, the Packers have posted an average of 27.3 points on a balanced 320.0 total yards, moving the chains at ease (57.1%) and committing only one turnover along the way. Furthermore, the ground game is churning out 129.0 yards per contest, which has allowed LaFleur to really get his play-action game going, which is where this unit really does damage. (Veteran Quarterback) Jordan Love has been carving up opponents of late, averaging 7.51 net yards per attempt with NINE touchdowns opposed to just one interception during this streak, while his ledger on play-action over the course of the campaign has been stellar; the 27-year-old has logged a healthy 8.53 net yards per attempt on such plays, with seven scores and one pick. Of course, getting the likes of (Receivers) Christian Watson and Jayden Reed back from injury has helped immensely. Each pass-catcher performs a very different function within LaFleur’s scheme, with the former hauling in 25 receptions for 452 yards and five touchdowns since returning from a lengthy absence, averaging a whopping 18.1 yards per catch along the way. Watson (pictured below) continued to show out in last weekend’s crucial 28-21 victory over the NFC-leading Bears, catching all four of his targets for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the latter of which was a 41-yard bomb from Love (pictured below alongside Watson) to stretch the lead to ten points midway through the third period. Chicago would draw level with eight minutes left to play in the final stanza, only for the hosts to manufacture an 8-play, 65-yard drive that bled 4:28 off the clock, culminating in a short touchdown run by (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Josh Jacobs. From there, Green Bay’s defense closed the deal, intercepting Caleb Williams in the end zone, ending the affair altogether. Love finished with 234 yards, three touchdowns and an interception on 17-of-25 passing, while Jacobs plowed his way to 86 yards and that go-ahead score on 20 carries, with (young Cornerback) Keisean Nixon calling game with the INT. This win vaulted the Cheeseheads into first place in the NFC North, while positioning them a half-game behind the Rams for first place in the NFC. Could the NFC Playoffs run through the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field? It is looking more likely with each passing week…
From a betting perspective, the Packers are surging at 9-3-1 straight-up, but they haven’t been a rewarding side against the spread (6-7), parlaying to a net loss of 1.55 units thus far. After going a remarkable SEVEN games with only a single cover, this is a team that has earned back the support of bettors with three consecutive covers coming into this trip to Mile High, including last weekend’s victory over the Bears (-6.5). Since arriving in Eastern Wisconsin in 2019, LaFleur is now 79-41-1 SU and 67-53-1 ATS overall, including 27-27 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 43-41 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 43-33 ATS following a win, and 29-27 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered four of their last five games coming off a SU win, while in the midst of a 5-1 run ATS in the month of December. They are also 9-2 ATS following a division affair and harboring revenge against a non-division adversary, which is precisely the case this evening. However, Green Bay hasn’t been as strong on the road of late, covering just two of their past eight ventures away from home. Leaning into that narrative, keep an eye on that line (-2.5), folks, for if it rises any higher it is worth noting that the Cheeseheads are a dreadful 1-12 ATS as road favorites of three or more points. Looking at this particular matchup, these two classic franchises haven’t crossed paths often, with today’s showdown marking just the seventeenth all-time meeting, though the Packers trail by the narrowest of margins (7-8-1 SU). Interestingly, the home team has covered each of the last four encounters, which includes the most recent, a 19-17 affair at Mile High from two years ago. This one was every bit the defensive struggle that the final score would lead you to believe, as the visitors held the Broncos to a triumvirate of field goals in the first half. However, Green Bay was sitting on just three points until late in the third period when Love found (Receiver) Romeo Doubs in the back of the end zone to cut the deficit to six points. On the ensuing possession, he then led an 11-play, 76-yard drive to hit paydirt once again, this time finding Reed for the short score, taking a 17-16 lead with just over eight minutes remaining. Denver would respond with another field goal to retake the lead, giving Love & Co one final opportunity to pull ahead for good. The visiting side briefly crossed midfield, but were sent backwards via a holding penalty, leading to a fateful 3rd & 20 from their own 46-yard line, where Love was intercepted on a deep shot down the right sideline, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, in a contest this close, turnovers often prove to be decisive, which was the case as that pick was the only takeaway of the day. Love was 21-of-31 for 180 yards, two touchdowns and that interception, while ten different players caught a pass. While that was the only time that the Utah State product has matched wits with the Broncos, the aforementioned Jacobs is well-acquainted after spending the first five years of his career within the AFC West as the lead rusher for the Raiders; the 2022 Rushing Champion has NEVER lost to Denver (8-0), with an average of 96.1 yards per game and nine touchdowns on the ground. Getting back to his QB, Love is now 24-23 ATS overall, including 11-13 ATS on the road, 13-15 ATS as a favorite, 17-11 ATS following a win, 9-8 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 16-17 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (3-8 ATS). On the injury front, LaFleur currently has just six players on Injured Reserve, but three of them are starters, including (Guard) Elgton Jenkins (lower body), (Tight End) Tucker Kraft (knee), and (Defensive Lineman) Devonte Wyatt (ankle). Furthermore, (Sophomore Edge) Lukas Van Ness is out with a lingering foot malady, while (Safety) Jonathan Bullard (ankle), (Nickelback) Nate Hobbs (knee), and (Rookie Wideout) Matthew Golden (wrist) are listed as questionable with various ailments. Looking ahead, the Packers will make their annual pilgrimage to Soldier Field for a second meeting in three weeks with the Bears, which could very well lock up the NFC North with two weeks left to go in the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Broncos (11-2, 1st in AFC West) are on quite a tear themselves, winning ten consecutive games for the first time since 2012. Indeed, it is year three for (Head Coach) Sean Payton at Mile High and the veteran taskmaster has his team positioned for what could be a lengthy postseason run for the first time in a decade. When it comes to Denver, there are two prevailing narratives. First, their aggressive defense is one of the toughest in the NFL, ranking fourth in points allowed (18.1), third in total yards permitted (282.0), tenth against the pass (193.0), second versus the run (89.0), and first on third down (30.9%), in the red zone (40.0%), and sacks (55). (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph has playmakers at all three levels of this unit, with (Defensive End) Zach Allen logging a whopping 34 QB hits, (Pro-Bowl Edge) Nik Bonitto posting 12.5 sacks, and (reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Patrick Surtain II headlining a proverbial no fly zone. Remarkably, this group has been as successful as they have been despite coming up with just ten takeaways thus far (27th Overall), which is fascinating when you consider how much pressure they have gotten on their opposition. During this 10-game stretch, they have relegated five teams below 300 total yards, with just three adversaries rushing for over 100 yards against them. However, the second narrative, which happens to be the more prevailing of the two, is the inconsistent play of (Sophomore Quarterback) Bo Nix. On the whole, the Oregon product has performed comparably to how he did as a rookie, completing 63.2% of his throws for 227.1 yards per game on 5.90 net yards per attempt, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions with a QBR of 55.8. With all due respect, the fact that he has only shown marginal improvement in his second year as the starter has been a concern. When you look across the league at the other members of his stellar QB class in the 2024 NFL Draft, Nix (pictured below) appears to have stagnated, leaving many in the state of Colorado frustrated. However, there have been many occasions in which he has struggled through three quarters only to turn around and morph into the Terminator in the final stanza. In the fourth quarter this season, the 25-year-old has completed 61.8% of his throws for 833 yards on 6.22 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 103 yards and two more scores. Furthermore, he leads the league with FIVE fourth quarter comebacks and SIX game-winning drives, with four of them coming in the last five games alone. Granted, with THAT defense behind him, he can afford to meander through the first three quarters before balling out in the fourth, but the real question that has been on everyone’s mind is this: is this approach truly sustainable? We have seen throughout the history of the NFL that a dominant defense can in fact result in a Lombardi Trophy. Hell, Denver’s last Super Bowl triumph came on the strength of a hellacious unit that carried a middling offense led by an aging Peyton Manning who would retire after their playoff run. What this comes down to is a matter of expectations, for with Payton’s history as an offensive guru in New Orleans coupled with the success that Nix enjoyed last Fall, the faithful in Denver had higher expectations than a middle-of-the-road unit. Thankfully, that was all that was required to get the job done against the lowly Raiders last week, with that 24-17 victory securing a second straight season sweep of their bitter rivals. This one wasn’t as close as that score would suggest, folks, as the Broncos led 24-7 in the fourth period before capitulating ten consolation points, including a controversial field goal with virtually no time remaining in regulation. When it was all said and done, the visitors dominated Las Vegas across the board, outgaining them in total yards (356-229), rushing yards (152-40), and first downs (27-16), while converting 7-of-12 third downs, and possessing the football for a commanding 39:03. Nix was 31-of-38 passing for 212 yards, while rushing for an 8-yard touchdown in the first quarter, with (Rookie Tailback) R.J. Harvey rushing for 75 yards and a score of his own. Defensively, they logged four sacks, seven QB hits, and nine pressures, as Bonitto paced the unit with a pair of sacks and three pressures.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be a stellar 11-2 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread (5-8), equating to a net loss of 3.45 units. This is a team that has struggled when asked to cover a sizable spread, posting a 1-6 ledger ATS when said spread is six points or greater, which has been the case in each of the past two weeks against the Commanders (-6) and Raiders (-8.5). Granted, they were well on their way towards covering the latter of those two outings, but a late field goal from Las Vegas as time expired flipped the outcome for many a disgruntled bettor. Since arriving in Mile High in 2023, Payton is now 29-19 SU and 23-24-1 ATS overall, including 13-10 ATS at Empower Field, 11-12 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 13-15 ATS following a win, and 15-16 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered NINE of their last eleven home games, and is 13-6 ATS opposite an adversary coming off a SU victory. However, Denver is in the midst of a 2-5 stretch ATS immediately after amassing 350 total yards of offense, and have covered just three of their past twelve tilts that have followed a battle with the Raiders, which is the case this evening. As we covered earlier, this is only the seventeenth time that these historic franchises have crossed paths, folks, with the Broncos clinging to a narrow 8-7-1 edge SU. Of course, they have met once in the postseason, which happened to be a classic Super Bowl XXXII resulting in the organization’s first-ever Lombardi Trophy. Denver was MAJOR underdogs on that day against the defending champs (+11), though outrushed Green Bay 179-95 and forced three turnovers en route to a 31-24 triumph. As for more recent history, the Ponies did see off the Cheeseheads when they visited Mile High two years ago in that aforementioned 19-17 victory. The hosts shut out the Packers in the first half, but could only muster three field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz to take a 9-0 lead into intermission. An 18-yard touchdown reception courtesy of (veteran Wideout) Courtland Sutton made it 16-3 midway through the third period, though the visitors struck back with consecutive touchdowns to move ahead 17-16 with little over eight minutes to go. However, (former QB) Russell Wilson (remember him?) piloted his side into enemy territory to set up Lutz for a fourth field goal, this one sailing 52 yards through the uprights, while (veteran Safety) P.J. Locke picked off Love on a deep shot down the right sideline, effectively ending the game altogether. In the end, Sutton led the way with six catches for 76 yards and that score, while (unsung Linebacker) Alex Singleton amassed eleven tackles, including one for loss. As for their current QB, Nix is now 17-14 ATS overall, including 9-5 ATS at home, 7-7 ATS as a dog, 10-10 ATS following a win, 6-8 ATS after back-to-back victories, and 12-9 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a home dog (1-2 ATS). On the injury front, Payton has one of the healthiest teams in the league at his disposal despite having nine players on Injured Reserve, chief among them being (veteran Tailback) J.K. Dobbins (foot) and (veteran Guard) Ben Powers (bicep). Looking ahead, the remaining schedule doesn’t let up for the Broncos, who will face the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers in their final three contests, though two of them are at Mile High, while a trip to Arrowhead on Christmas Day carries MAJOR playoff implications.