8:00 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Oklahoma -1.5, Total: 40.5
Finally, after weeks of endless deliberation, the College Football Playoff kicks off in earnest, as arguably its most controversial participant, the (No. 9) Alabama Crimson Tide, looks for payback against a persistent thorn in their side, the (No. 8) Oklahoma Sooners, who have bested them in each of the past two meetings. After missing out on the Playoff in his first year on the job, (Head Coach) Kalen DeBoer has led Alabama (10-3, 7-1 in SEC) to what has long been their bare minimum of goals. Of course, there are expectations, and then there are the expectations in Tuscaloosa, where his predecessor built an empire of empires; between his arrival in 2007 and departure following the 2023 campaign, (former HC) Nick Saban won three BCS National Titles in a 4-year-span, before leading the program to EIGHT Playoffs over the course of a decade, winning it all on three occasions. Simply put, DeBoer (pictured below) had HUGE shoes to fill, with last season’s 9-4 finish falling well short of the standard set by Saban. At multiple points this Fall, it felt as if his troops would come up short again, as they were humbled by unranked Florida State in the season opener, which rung a series of alarm bells around Bryant-Denney Stadium. To his credit, the Tide rallied back to win ten of their final eleven outings, earning a trip to the SEC Championship Game where they were pitted against (No. 3) Georgia, whom they beat in a 24-21 affair back in September in Athens. If they defeated the Bulldogs for a second time, they were an easy addition to the CFP as SEC Champions, but a loss would see them drop their third game of the campaign, leaving their fate up to the CFP Selection Committee. As it turned out, ‘Bama would in fact fall to the Dawgs in a 28-7 tilt where they were held to a season-low 209 total yards, including -3 rushing yards. You would be hard-pressed to pick a a less ideal spot to play your worst offensive game of the year, but clearly it wasn’t enough to sway the Committee from selecting the Crimson Tide, who clearly were NOT penalized for getting pummeled in their conference championship. We will spare you the debate, for there is now a more pertinent question to be asked: now that they are in, can they win it all? While anything is possible in a dance such as this, it is clear that DeBoer and (Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb must solve their issues on offense if they are going to progress any further than tonight’s first-round matchup. Basically, this is a unit that has been “leaking oil” for numerous weeks now; after averaging a robust 38.2 points on 436.3 total yards with a turnover margin of +8 in the seven games following that upset in Tallahassee, Alabama has mustered just 26.2 points on 355.6 total yards with an even takeaway differential. Furthermore, if you remove a 56-0 shutout of Eastern Illinois from the equation, those numbers are far worse (20.8 points on 297 total yards). It also hasn’t helped that the attack has been very one-dimensional and overly reliant upon the right arm of (Senior Quarterback) Ty Simpson, who has averaged 251.4 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, while leading the SEC in both passing attempts (428) and completions (275). With that being said, the rushing attack has more or less been an afterthought, churning out just 116.2 yards on 3.6 yards per carry, both of which represent the program’s lowest figures since prior to Saban’s reign of terror. Against a strong defense such as Georgia’s Simpson (pictured below along DeBoer) crumbled under the pressure of constantly dropping back to throw, completing 19-of-39 attempts to reach 212 yards, tossing a touchdown along with an interception, while suffering three sacks and countless other pressures.
From a betting perspective, Alabama come into tonight’s playoff at 10-3 straight-up, but they really haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (6-4-2), despite still returning a profit of 1.45 units. This is a team that has seriously cooled off on that latter front of late, failing to cover five of their past eight outings, including that aforementioned SEC Title Game drubbing at the hands of the Bulldogs (+1.5). Since taking over in Tuscaloosa last season, DeBoer is now 19-6 SU and 12-10-2 ATS overall, including 3-6-2 ATS away from Bryant-Denney Stadium, 12-9-2 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 4-1 ATS following a loss, and 8-7-2 ATS versus all opposition residing within the SEC. Furthermore, his troops are 4-1 ATS with the benefit of rest, which includes four consecutive covers in such tilts, are in the midst of a 4-game streak of covers immediately following a loss, and are a commanding 10-1 ATS in their last eleven games after being relegated below 20 points, which is the case tonight. However, the Crimson Tide have been markedly less successful away from home lately, covering only one of their past seven road ventures (1-5-1 ATS), which is also the case tonight. Dating back to its inception in 2014, the Playoff has certainly been good to the Tide, who have rolled their way to a 9-5 ledger in the tournament, though this voyage will mark their first since its expansion. As for DeBoer, the last time he was in the CFP was two years ago when he guided Washington to the National Championship Game. Looking at this particular matchup, ‘Bama trails the all-time series against Oklahoma 2-5-1 SU, while failing to cover each of the previous four encounters, which includes their two battles as members of the SEC. Of course, they lost each of those affairs outright, including mid-November’s 23-21 upset in Tuscaloosa. Despite outgaining the visitors by a sizable margin (406-212), the Tide were done in by their own mistakes committing THREE crucial turnovers, chief among them being an 87-yard interception return to the house late in the first quarter. With that being said, they did manage to rally back and retake the lead midway through the second half, but couldn’t stand prosperity as Simpson lost the football on a strip-sack at his own 31-yard line, leading directly to a field goal that proved to be the game-winner. After trading punts, the hosts had one final opportunity to mount a comeback, though turned it over on downs at midfield. When it was all said and done, it was a rough showing for Simpson, who was responsible for two of those turnovers, while completing 28-of-42 throws for 326 yards and a touchdown. (Senior Tight End) Josh Cuevas led the team with 80 receiving yards and a score on six catches before ultimately exiting the game due to a sprained foot, with the Washington transfer having ironically been sidelined ever since. Speaking of injuries, he and (Senior Tailback) Jamarion Miller (leg), who missed the SEC Title Game, are both listed as questionable to return tonight, with their collective presence representing a serious boost for the offense; the former has been a reliable safety valve over the middle of the field with 30 catches for 341 yards and four touchdowns, while the latter has been the most impactful rusher in an uncharacteristically docile ground game, racking up 493 yards and three touchdowns in nine games. Looking ahead, if Alabama manages to enact revenge tonight in Norman, then they will face off against (No. 1) undefeated Indiana at the Rose Bowl.
Meanwhile, (Head Coach) Brent Venables came into this Fall as a man very much on the hot seat, though after leading Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2 in SEC) to their first Playoff since 2019 it appears that he will leave it in good shape. In his first three years after returning to a program where he rose to prominence as a Defensive Coordinator, Venables found it difficult to transition the Sooners from being an inevitable offensive machine into an immovable defensive force, as he was responsible for their only two losing seasons since 1998. Granted, making the move to the mighty SEC played a MAJOR role in their struggles last season (5-7), particularly when you consider their years of dominating the BIG XII, which for all intents and purposes is a fundamentally different conference. With his pedigree rooted on the defensive side of the ball, Venables is a coach better suited to coaching (and recruiting) in the SEC, which is a belief that has finally paid off, despite facing what was the most hellacious schedule in the nation. How hard did OU have it in 2025, you ask? Altogether, they have faced SIX ranked opponents, including four in a row prior to their season finale at LSU, whom they bested in a 17-13 affair at Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium. After an abysmal showing on the offensive side of the ball last year, Venables knew that he had to shake things up to keep his job, with his gamble on (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Arbuckle and (Junior Quarterback) John Mateer paying off handsomely. The package deal from Washington State has given the attack the requisite boost that they sorely needed, even if the numbers in their totality don’t necessarily reflect it. On the season, Oklahoma has averaged just 26.4 points (80th in FBS) 353.7 total yards, though it should be noted that Mateer (pictured below) suffered broken bones in his throwing hand in an ugly late-September victory over Auburn, which caused him to miss two weeks before coming back well ahead of schedule. As one could imagine, it took him a while to get healthy, which was painfully evident in a 23-6 loss to (bitter rival) Texas in which he was intercepted three times. In many respects, Arbuckle has had to manage his QB during this stretch, though to his credit, Mateer has in turn managed games with aplomb, while consistently making plays with his feet, rushing for 190 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the final four games, all of which were victories. It has also certainly helped that the defense has been one of the very best in the country, shipping a mere 13.9 points (7th in FBS) on 273.6 total yards, parlaying to just 4.2 yards per play. This is a veteran unit with ten returning starters that are well-versed in Venables’ system, thriving off the chaos created at the line of scrimmage with 41.0 sacks, an FBS-best 115.0 tackles for loss, and nine forced fumbles, and three defensive touchdowns. Given Mateer’s injury woes, this unit had to play lights out down the stretch, which they more or less did in relegating the likes of South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU to 18.0 points per game on 336.0 total yards. This was the case against the Bayou Bengals, who were held to 198 yards of offense and nine first downs. Mateer was certainly more prolific than he had been at any point since his return, completing 23-of-38 throws for 318 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but he was rather reckless in tossing three interceptions as well, marking the second time this Fall in which he was picked off that frequently. If he can play clean football, it is awfully hard seeing this team lose when the defense so rarely gives up over 20 points, that is a big if as the competition stiffens in this Playoff.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma is 10-2 straight-up and have also turned a profit despite not being as strong against the spread (7-4), equating to a net return of 2.36 units. This is a team whose return to form has coincided with the comeback of their QB, covering three of their past four contests. Since returning to Norman in 2022, Venables is now 32-19 SU and 24-23-2 ATS overall, including 13-12 ATS at Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium, 7-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 4-4 ATS with the benefit of rest, 6-9 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 13-17 ATS following a win, and 14-20 ATS against all conference opposition, be it from the SEC or BIG XII before it. Furthermore, his troops have covered just one of their past four games against an adversary enjoying some rest, while failing to cover four consecutive contests immediately after relegating a foe to fewer than 20 points, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to its inception in 2014, the Sooners have participated in the Playoff on four occasions, though have yet to win a single game, with tonight’s showdown marking their return to the tournament after a 5-year hiatus. As for Venables, he is well-acquainted with the CFP thanks to his time at Clemson, where he was the Defensive Coordinator for the Tigers in five consecutive tourneys (2015-2019), winning National Championships in 2016 and 2018. As we touched upon earlier, OU leads the all-time series with Alabama (5-2-1 SU), which includes each of their two encounters as members of the SEC. Interestingly, the underdog has covered six straight meetings in this series, while the Under has hit four times in the last five matchups. These schools have crossed paths on this stage before, folks, meeting in the 2018 National Semifinal, a star-studded affair that saw Boomer & Sooner take it on the chin early, falling victim to a 21-0 run by the Crimson Tide in the first quarter. (Former QB) Kyler Murray (407 total yards, 3 TD) and (Former Wideout) CeeDee Lamb (109 yards, 1 TD) very nearly led a successful rally, though the BIG XII Champions came up short in the 45-34 conflict in South Florida. As for those two victories over the past two seasons, a 24-3 triumph in Norman last Fall followed by that aforementioned 23-21 thriller in Tuscaloosa, Venables’ defense dominated with SIX takeaways, leading to a +5 differential. The latter battle saw the visitors jump out to an early 10-0 lead thanks to an 87-yard pick-6 courtesy of (Sophomore Cornerback) Eli Bowen, while a late 24-yard field goal from (Junior Kicker) Tate Sandell proved to be decisive. Mateer didn’t wow statistically, but made the necessary plays to keep the offense afloat, completing 15-of-23 passes for just 138 yards, while rushing for a key 20-yard touchdown to reassert their lead just before halftime. On the injury front, keep an eye on (Senior Defensive Lineman) R Mason Thomas, who is listed as questionable due to a quadricep strain that has sidelined him for the past three games. The big fella has been a consistent source of pressure up front, totaling 9.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, and defensive touchdown this season. Looking ahead, a win tonight will propel Oklahoma to the CFP Quarterfinals where they will face top-seeded Indiana in Pasadena.