12:00 PM EST, ESPN/ABC – Spread: Texas A&M -3, Total: 48.5
The First Round of the 2025 College Football Playoff rages on today with a pair of new participants to the dance, as the (No. 10) Miami Hurricanes look to make the most of their opportunity after weeks of sitting on the bubble, while the (No. 7) Texas A&M Aggies are simply trying to pick themselves back up off the proverbial mat following their only defeat of the campaign. For roughly two decades, the persistent question associated with Miami (10-2, 6-2 in ACC) is this: Are they back? While there have been plenty of false starts over that period of time, it appears that (Head Coach) Mario Cristobal has his alma mater on track to reclaiming their seat among the elite in college football. After all, this is a program that won FIVE National Titles from 1983 to 2001, were a fixture in the polls, and were responsible for a plethora of stars who went on to enjoy Hall of Fame careers on the professional level. However, they have been very much lost in the wilderness for quite some time, logging a win percentage of just .572 from 2006-2023, with nary a conference title or an appearance in the Playoff to speak of. With that being said, Cristobal (pictured below), an Offensive Lineman during their glory years, has successfully completed his second consecutive 10-win campaign, which not only stands as a first in his coaching career, but marks the first time that The U have done so since 2003! To put that into perspective, the Hurricanes were a member of the Big East and were led by a star-studded roster featuring the likes of Sean Taylor, Frank Gore, and Vince Wilfork. So, how has the big fella turned things around, you ask? Well, given their location it has come as no surprise that Miami has recruited well and have leaned heavily into the Transfer Portal and NIL over the past few years, particularly at Quarterback where they have struck gold in successive seasons. Last Fall, they signed (Washington State transfer) Cam Ward, with the Heisman finalist and eventual number one overall pick in the NFL Draft leading them to ten wins and very nearly a spot in the Playoff. This time around, Cristobal set out to finish stronger, prying away (Senior QB) Carson Beck from Georgia. While Beck hasn’t been as prolific as his predecessor, he has nonetheless met expectations, with his wealth of experience with the Bulldogs positioning his current employers for a potentially massive payoff. Coupled that with a renovated defense that has been nothing short of dominant this season, and you have the most complete team that has come through South Florida in ages. Following a sloppy 26-20 overtime loss at SMU, the Hurricanes finished strong with four consecutive victories by an average margin of 27.5 points, which was enough to get them off the bubble and into the CFP. In a 38-7 drubbing of Pittsburgh in the finale, they overcame a slow start to finish the game on a 35-0 run. When it was all said and done, Miami outgained the Panthers 416-229 in total yards, 140-30 in rushing yards, and 28-11 in first downs. Beck was a surgical 23-of-29 passing for 267 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while (True Freshman Wideout) Malachi Toney hauled in an industrious thirteen receptions for 126 yards and a 22-yard touchdown just before halftime. The young playmaker also picked up another 30 yards on five carries, while even throwing for a touchdown, hitting (Sophomore Tight End) Elijah Lofton in the end zone midway through the second period. Toney has been utilized in a variety of ways by (Offensive Coordinator) Shannon Dawson throughout his first season, totaling 1,059 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns on 101 touches, while also functioning as a returner on punts (187 yards, 14.4 yards per punt) and completing 4-of-6 passes for 82 yards and two more scores. A QB in high school, could we see Toney making such an impact this afternoon at Kyle Field? We wouldn’t put it past him…
From a betting perspective, Miami come into this Playoff at 10-2 straight-up, though were also profitable against the spread too (7-4), equating to a net profit of 2.36 units, marking the first time in ages that they managed to do so. This is a team that did cool off on that front as the season progressed, covering three of their final seven outings, though beat the spread easily in that finale at Pitt (-6.5). Since returning to his alma mater in 2022, Cristobal is now 32-18 SU and 20-26 ATS overall, including 9-11 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium, 5-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-5 ATS with the benefit of rest, 11-18 ATS following a win, and 24-18 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the ACC. Furthermore, his troops have covered five of their last seven games immediately after relegating an opponent below 20 points, but they are also in the midst of a 2-9 stretch ATS away versus an adversary enjoying some rest following an outright loss. The Hurricanes have also traditionally regressed in December where they are a dismal 4-18 ATS in this particular month over the past two decades. Granted, the vast majority of that poor play has come in listless bowls in which they have rarely showed up; The U are an embarrassing 1-12 SU in these postseason affairs, folks, while getting torched in their lone appearance in the ACC Championship Game, a 38-3 drubbing at the hands of Clemson in 2018. As for Cristobal, he hasn’t been great in these games either, posting a 3-5 ledger ATS between his stays with Florida International, Oregon, and Miami. Looking at this particular matchup, these programs have met on just five occasions, with the ‘Canes holding a 3-2 advantage all-time, though they did enjoy a home-and-home series from 2022-2023 in which each side proved victorious on their home turf. The Hurricanes won the most recent affair, a wild 48-33 shootout on South Beach in which the hosts rallied back from an early 10-0 deficit, outscoring Texas A&M 48-23 over the final 48:00 of action. Both teams racked up well over 400 yards of total offense, though the difference proved to be turnovers, as the Hurricanes logged three on the day, including a pair of interceptions courtesy of (former Defensive Backs) Kamren Kinchens and Te’cory Couch. It was arguably the finest performance of (former QB) Tyler Van Dyke’s tenure with the school, with the big-armed gunslinger completing an efficient 21-of-30 throws for 374 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Interestingly, if we consider the revenge factor, it certainly works against the Floridians, who are just 3-9 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge under Cristobal, while covering only ONE of their past ten tilts against an opponent with vengeance on the mind who is coming off a double-digit defeat, which is precisely the case today. On the injury front, Cristobal has a largely healthy team at his disposal for this trip to College Station. Looking ahead, if Miami do in fact down the Aggies once again then they will be on to the CFP Quarterfinals where (No. 2) Ohio State awaits, setting up a rematch of the 2002 BCS National Title Game in which the Buckeyes spoiled the Hurricanes bid for a repeat, ironically creating an opportunity for The U to return that favor decades later.
Meanwhile, as their opponent today has been building momentum for a month, Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1 in SEC) find themselves in a very different position coming off their lone defeat of what has been an otherwise stellar campaign. In just his second season in College Station, (Head Coach) Mike Elko has successfully turned the page from the mess left by his predecessor, leading the Aggies to their fifth 11-win season in school history and their first since 2012, which was coincidentally their first as a member of the SEC. This has been a strong group on both sides of the football, ranking fourteenth in the FBS in points scored (36.3) and forty-first in points allowed (21.9), all the while outgaining their foes by an average margin of 144.6 total yards. Elko (pictured below) has recruited well, replenishing a defense that lost a number of starters, including a pair of Edge-Rushers to the NFL Draft, while working the Transfer Portal to acquire playmakers in the passing game; (Wideouts) Kevin Concepcion and Mario Craver arrived via NC State and Mississippi State respectively, combining for 109 receptions, 1,711 yards, and thirteen touchdowns thus far, with the former leading the SEC in receiving scores (9). (Sophomore Quarterback) Marcel Reed has also flourished in his first full season as the starter, proving to be a dynamic dual-threat with 2,932 passing yards and another 466 yards on the ground, while amassing 31 total touchdowns along the way. However, the biggest storyline throughout their previous unbeaten run was their persistent success in close games. During their 11-0 start, A&M won four different contests by six points or less, including a wild 31-point comeback against South Carolina. With plenty of pundits questioning the sustainability of their success, said luck ultimately ran out in the season finale, a 27-17 loss at (bitter rival) Texas on Black Friday. Simply put, it was all there for the taking for the Aggies, who were on the precipice of an undefeated regular season, a trip to the SEC Title Game, and a potential bye in the first round of the CFP. Unfortunately, none of those things came to pass, as they were undone by their own mistakes. For a third straight game, Texas A&M lost the turnover battle while committing multiple giveaways, as Reed had a tough night at the office from a passing perspective. The Nashville native completed 20-of-32 passes for just 180 yards and a pair of interceptions, both of which came on his final two drives of the night. The visitors managed to draw within three points midway through the final stanza thanks to a rushing score courtesy of (Stanford transfer) E.J. Smith, only for the hosts to immediately respond with a rushing touchdown of their own, as (Texas QB) Arch Manning ran 35 yards up the middle of the defense to paydirt. Reed would in turn march the Aggies deep into Longhorns’ territory, where he was picked off at the 18-yard line, and after his defense forced a three-and-out on the ensuing possession, tossed another interception on the first play of the final drive. As competition stiffens with each round of the Playoff, ball security will be paramount to Texas A&M’s success; this is a team has committed ELEVEN turnovers over the last five games in comparison to just five in the first six outings, posting a dreadful differential of -8 during that stretch.
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M comes into the first round of this Playoff at a stellar 11-1 straight-up, but they haven’t come close to being as rewarding against the spread (5-6), parlaying to a net loss of 1.45 units. This is a team that finally hit the wall after leaking oil for weeks on that latter front, suffering their first outright defeat of the campaign in that fateful trip to Austin (-2.5) after failing to cover the spread in each of the previous two weeks beforehand. Since arriving in College Station prior to last season, Elko is now 19-6 SU and 8-15 ATS overall, including 4-10 ATS at Kyle Field, 7-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 1-4 ATS with the benefit of rest, 3-3 ATS when harboring revenge, 0-3 ATS following a loss, and 1-7 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the SEC. Furthermore, his troops are in the midst of an 8-2-1 run ATS at home against an adversary with a winning road record, while covering SIX of their past seven encounters with denizens from the ACC. However, the Aggies have covered only ONE of their last eleven non-conference affairs and have been traditionally poor immediately after a bye week (5-21 ATS!!!), which will see them coming off the equivalent of two byes for today’s showdown. As is the case with their counterpart, A&M is making their first appearance in the Playoff, while looking for their first postseason victory since 2020, a 41-27 romp over another resident of the ACC, North Carolina, in the Orange Bowl. As for Elko, the big fella is 1-1 all-time such games, leading Duke to a Military Bowl triumph in 2022, while coming up just short in last December’s Las Vegas Bowl against USC (35-31). As we touched upon earlier, these schools haven’t crossed paths on the gridiron very often, meeting for just the sixth time in their respective histories. Those back-to-back conflicts from 2022-2023 couldn’t have been more different, folks, as the Aggies muscled their way to a 17-9 victory in a defensive struggle at home, before getting run out of South Florida a year later after racing out to an early 10-0 lead. Though their opponent moved the ball at will in each meeting, A&M were considerably tougher in the red zone in the former of the two encounters, forcing the Hurricanes to settle for field goals, while also stopping them on fourth down late in the second half. (Former QB) Conner Weigman was a roller coaster unto himself in the latter matchup, completing 31-of-53 throws for 336 yards and three total touchdowns, but was also responsible for two of his team’s three turnovers, with those interceptions swinging momentum in favor of the ‘Canes. On the injury front, (Senior Tailback) Le’Veon Moss has been sidelined since mid-October due to a high ankle sprain, though keep an eye on the status of (Freshman Wideout) Ashton Bethel-Roman, who is listed as questionable to play today after exiting the loss at Texas with a lower leg malady. At 6’1″, he has been their resident big-play merchant, hauling in 20 receptions for 459 yards and five touchdowns, averaging a whopping 38.3 yards per catch. Looking ahead, if Texas A&M hold serve at home then they will be the ones to face the reigning National Champion, Buckeyes in the Quarterfinals.