3:30 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Ole Miss -17.5, Total: 57.5
The opening round of the 2025 College Football Playoff marches on this evening, as the (No. 11) Tulane Green Wave look to send off their Head Coach in the best way possible in this rematch against the (No. 6) Ole Miss Rebels, who are turning the page to a new skipper of their own. In a few weeks that have been utterly dominated by coaching changes, Tulane (11-2, 7-1 in AAC) find themselves representing the Group of 5 in the Playoff despite being a team in transition on the sideline. Indeed, (Head Coach) Jon Sumrall will be taking his talents to Gainesville following the conclusion of his group’s tournament run, but has chosen (and been granted) the opportunity to remain in New Orleans to see things through to the very end. For those questioning the transition, which is sizable indeed, keep in mind that Sumrall is no stranger to the SEC, having played as a Linebacker at Kentucky (2002-2004) before later spending four seasons as an assistant coach at Ole Miss (2018) and his alma mater (2019-2021). While we believe that the 43-year-old will go on to do great things at Florida, let us take an opportunity to take a look into the job he has done with the Green Wave. Taking over for the venerable Willie Fritz, Sumrall (pictured below) has kept the ball rolling in the Big Easy, leading the program to their third 10-win campaign in four years, winning the American Athletic Conference for a second time during that stretch. Last season, the Green Wave held the opposition to 20.6 points per game (24th in FBS) on 323.5 total yards, limiting four different adversaries to a season-low in yards. With seven starters returning this Fall, they have been roughly comparable on this front, shipping 22.6 points (50th in FBS) on 375.5 total yards, which has been a major reason as to why they have been so good in close games. In fact, the Wave is a perfect 5-0 in contests decided by one score this year. Simply put, this is notable due to all of the turnover that Sumrall had to deal with on an offense that lost its leading passer, rusher, and top-four receivers to either graduation or the Transfer Portal. With that being said, the portal is very much a two-way street, as the Texas native went shopping for playmakers and found a few, the most significant being (Senior Quarterback) Jake Retzlaff. The BYU transfer was to be suspended for the first seven games of this season due to breaking the Cougars’ rigid honor code (for premarital sex!!!), which led to his departure from Provo, with the faithful in New Orleans more than happy to have him. This was a guy that was 11-2 as a starting QB with his previous team, making him one of the most sought-after free agents on the market. In very different surroundings, Retzlaff has served as the fulcrum of Tulane’s attack, completing 62.4% of his throws for 2,862 yards on 8.0 yards per attempt with fourteen touchdowns and six interceptions, while also their leading rusher with 610 yards and another sixteen scores. Coupled with an opportunistic defense, the ground game led the way in their 34-21 AAC Championship triumph over North Texas; Tulane rushed for 199 yards and three scores on an industrious 52 carries, with (Sophomore Tailback) Jamauri McClure rampaging his way to 121 yards and a touchdown on 22 attempts, while Retzlaff added 49 more yards and another two scores of his own. Defensively, Sumrall’s charges may have relinquished 415 total yards to one of the most prolific attacks in the country, but they forced a decisive FIVE turnovers, including a 35-yard interception return to the house courtesy of (Junior Linebacker) Chris Rodgers to extend the lead to 24 points midway through the third quarter. (Junior Defensive Back) Jaheim Johnson and (Junior Safety) Jack Tchienchou each had an interception of their own, with the latter also forcing and recovering a fumble.
From a betting perspective, Tulane comes into this Playoff at 11-2 straight-up, though they haven’t been rewarding against the spread (6-6-1), parlaying to a net loss of 0.55 units. This is a team has alternated wins and loss ATS over their past five outings, with that triumph over the Mean Green checking the win column (+1.5). During his two seasons in New Orleans, Sumrall is 18-7 SU and 13-11-2 ATS overall, including 8-5 ATS away from Yulman Stadium, 3-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-8-1 ATS following a win, and 4-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AAC. Furthermore, his troops are a middling 4-4 ATS on the road following a SU victory, 12-4 ATS over their past sixteen contests after shipping more than 280 passing yards in the previous game, and are in the midst of a 6-2 run ATS when they are fresh off of an offensive performance consisting of fewer than 170 passing yards. The Green Wave is also a stellar 11-1 ATS following a double-digit home win over a conference opponent, which is the case this evening. However, there are also some trends working against them too. They are 2-14 ATS after an outright win as a road underdog, are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six tilts immediately after a cover, and are in the midst of an 0-3-1 malaise ATS with the luxury of rest. Oh, and they have failed to cover each of their last SEVEN meetings with competition hailing from the SEC, which brings us to the fact that today marks the second time in just over eight weeks that they will travel to Oxford to face the Rebels, with everyone associated with the program hoping this rematch has a different outcome. Indeed, that 45-10 affair was every bit as one-sided as that score would suggest, folks, as Tulane was outgained in total yards (548-282), rushing yards (241-178), passing yards (307-104), and first downs (23-18). Retzlaff had a really rough day at the office with a pedestrian 56 passing yards on 5-of-17 attempts, though did rush for 51 yards on eight carries. (Iowa transfer) Brendan Sullivan relieved him in the second half and found the end zone, but was also intercepted. Expect Sumrall to stick with the run game today after doing so in that late September clash; despite the ever-growing deficit, the visitors still carried the ball 39 times, racking up 178 yards along the way. On the injury front, (Senior Wideout) Bryce Bohanon, who hauled in 31 catches for 417 yards and a pair of touchdowns, returned after missing nearly a month with a lower body malady and is again listed as questionable. Looking ahead, if Tulane manages to get revenge and pull a seismic upset, then they will be off to Athens to battle another SEC adversary, the (No. 3) Georgia Bulldogs, whom they are 10-14-1 against all-time.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss (11-1, 7-1 in SEC) is also in the midst of a coaching transition, but unlike their opponent this evening, they are not letting their outgoing skipper remain with the team to coach them through the Playoff. Such is the reality in Oxford, where (former HC) Lane Kiffin opted to take his talents to Baton Rouge where he will lead LSU for the foreseeable future. In hindsight, the fact that Kiffin wished to stay and continue to coach his troops through the CFP despite leaving them at the proverbial alter to join a direct rival is fairly brazen, while the school’s reaction was completely predictable. We will say this about Kiffin: he did a tremendous job of raising the profile of a program that had mustered just two 10-win campaigns between 1972 and his arrival in 2019. From 2021 to this season, he crossed that threshold four times, with these eleven wins matching the school record that he set two years ago. However, enough about Lane, for the man filling his shoes is (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Golding, who will be given every opportunity to keep the ball rolling at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. A first-time HC, the 41-year-old is yet another member of the sizable Nick Saban coaching tree, spending six years as the Defensive Coordinator at Alabama, where he helped the Crimson Tide win a national title in 2020. Make no mistake about it, Golding (pictured below) is fighting wars on multiple fronts as he not only prepares the Rebels for the Playoff, but is attempting to maintain as many players and staffers as possible. The Transfer Portal is a treacherous tool, folks, and his predecessor was a master at manipulating it, with many around the sport believing that it is veritable open season on this talented roster. Reportedly, (Athletic Director) Keith Carter stopped Kiffin from escaping with only a few assistants, though it is anyone’s guess as to how many of his former players could eventually follow him to Baton Rouge. Of course, this includes (Senior Quarterback) Trinidad Chambliss, who is applying for one more year of eligibility after transferring to Mississippi from Ferris Tate, where he led the Bulldogs to a Division II National Championship. Picking up the ball for the injured Austin Simmons, the dual-threat never looked back, completing 65.5% of his throws for 3,016 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns in comparison to just three interceptions, while rushing for another 460 yards and six more scores. In fact, Chambliss even stars in a television commercial in which he playfully hints at transferring, though if that did come to pass, they may need to send the National Guard to Oxford. He is far from the only weapon on an offense littered with them, as (Sophomore Tailback) Kewan Lacy has been arguably the best RB in the SEC, rushing for 1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns thus far. Each of these stars shined in the Rebels’ 38-19 triumph in the Egg Bowl, downing (bitter rivals) Mississippi State for the fourth time in five years. In an affair in which the two sides combined for a whopping 985 total yards of offense, it was a matter of Ole Miss scoring touchdowns while the hosts ultimately settled for one too many field goals. Chambliss was 23-of-34 passing for 359 yards and FOUR touchdowns, including an emphatic 88-yard stunner to (Wake Forest transfer) Deuce Alexander, while Lacy casually strolled his way towards 124 rushing yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. However, Golding will have to get his house in order after shipping 440 total yards, including 262 yards against the run, which is not a recipe for success in the Playoff. Will the defense improve or get worse as he puts on the head coach’s headset. Will the offense continue to roll? Get a look at these Rebels while you can, for we have a feeling that they will look very different next Fall…
From a betting perspective, Ole Miss enters this Playoff at 11-1 straight-up, but unlike their counterpart this evening they have been rewarding against the spread (7-4), resulting in a net profit of 2.36 units. This is a team that has been fairly inconsistent since their stellar 3-1 start ATS, covering three of their last seven outings, including their latest Egg Bowl triumph (-7.5). In six years under Kiffin, the Rebels were 55-19 SU and 35-31-3 ATS overall, including 17-19 ATS at Vaught-Hemingway, 25-23 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 6-9 ATS with the luxury of rest, 13-9 ATS versus an adversary harboring revenge, 26-22 ATS following a win, and 14-7 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the SEC. Furthermore, Mississippi has covered four consecutive contests in Oxford when hosting a foe with a winning record, while posting a 15-3 ledger ATS as favorites of four or more points against an opponent fresh off of a SUATS victory. However, they are just 2-7 ATS when favored by seven or more points and coming off a bye, which is precisely the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, Ole Miss is 42-23 SU versus Tulane, winning each of the last five meetings, which includes three victories since 2021. When they crossed paths back in late September, that aforementioned 45-10 drubbing at home, Golding’s charges overcame a bit of a slow start in which they settled for successive field goals to take an early 13-0 lead midway through the second quarter. However, the Rebels would find their groove just before halftime, beginning a run of 32-0 run that lasted well into the final stanza. In the end, Mississippi amassed 548 total yards, rushing for 241 yards to boot. This was a coming-out party for Chambliss, who accounted for a staggering 419 total yards of offense, including 307 through the air on 17-of-27 throws, and another 112 yards on the ground via fourteen carries. Lacy finished with 68 rushing yards and a pair of scores on eighteen carries, while Alexander was a big-play machine with 94 yards and a 33-yard touchdown on four receptions. As was the case in that latest chapter of the Egg Bowl, Golding must address the run defense, which conceded 178 yards to the Green Wave. On the injury front, (Junior Cornerback) Antonio Kite, an Alabama transfer who logged 25 tackles and four deflected passes this season, has been out since mid-November with an undisclosed malady and is listed as questionable for today’s showdown in Oxford.. Looking ahead, if Ole Miss handle their business in this rematch, then it will be an all-SEC affair in the Quarterfinal of the Playoff, as they look to avenge their lone defeat of the campaign, a wild 43-35 shootout with (No. 3) Georgia.