7:30 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Oregon -21.5, Total: 45.5
The First Round of the 2025 College Football Playoff comes to a close tonight in Eugene, where the second representative of the Group of 5, the (No. 12) James Madison Dukes look to shock the world and upset the (No. 5) Oregon Ducks, who are simply looking to take care of business at home. Coming into this showdown in the Pacific Northwest, we won’t blame you for not being familiar with James Madison (12-1, 8-0 in Sun Belt), though you’ve probably heard plenty of opinions in regard to the credibility of their CFP bid. After all, it seemed like a long shot for the Dukes, who are ranked nineteenth in the AP Poll to get into the Playoff, but a wild and crazy Saturday of conference championships (we’re looking at you, ACC), allowed for a second conference champion from the Group of 5 to punch their ticket, much to the chagrin over everyone in South Bend. To their credit, this really has been quite some story for a program that has been competing in the FBS for just four seasons. Indeed, JMU made the leap to the proverbial big leagues under the guiding hand of (former Head Coach) Curt Cignetti (you may have heard of him), winning the Sun Belt in just his second year in the conference. Of course, Cignetti has continued his meteoric rise at Indiana, where he led the Hoosiers to a BIG 10 Championship and the top overall seed in the tournament. Ironically, his successor, Bob Chesney, is set to follow in those footsteps following a Sun Belt title of his own. The 48-year-old will be taking over UCLA once his current charges are done dancing, which is a job well-earned for a guy who has kept the ball rolling despite a wealth of talent following his predecessor out the door. Over these two seasons, the formula for success has been rather simple: run the ball successfully and you win games. James Madison is a commanding 20-4 when outrushing their opponent since 2024, while posting a perfect 18-0 ledger when averaging north of 4.9 yards per carry in comparison to 1-5 when falling below that threshold. Three different players have rushed for over 300 yards this season, chief among them being (Junior Tailback) Wayne Knight, who led the Sun Belt with 1,263 rushing yards, along with nine touchdowns on a healthy 6.6 yards per attempt. This kid is also a major part of their passing game, hauling in 37 receptions for 379 yards and another score, with that sum of catches ranking first on the team to boot. Knight was dominant in his team’s 31-14 triumph over Troy in the Sun Belt Title Game, accounting for 212 of the Dukes’ 318 rushing yards, logging a staggering 10.1 yards per carry, a figure that was influenced heavily by a 73-yard sprint to the house early in the second quarter. (Junior Quarterback) Alonza Barnett IV didn’t need to do much as a passer (10-of-25, 93 yards, TD and INT), but he did aid the rushing onslaught with 85 yards and a score of his own, a 26-yarder to stretch the lead to ten points late in the fourth period. Then, on the ensuing Troy possession, (Junior Linebacker) Drew Spinogatti dropped the proverbial curtain with a 22-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Chesney’s defense made plays throughout this one, folks, totaling EIGHT sacks, fourteen tackles for loss, and that aforementioned scoop-and-score. (Freshman Defensive Lineman) Sahir West was a BEAST with three sacks and the forced fumble that led to that touchdown, while (Senior Defensive Lineman) Xavier Holmes wasn’t far behind with 2.5 sacks of his own.
From a betting perspective, James Madison has advanced to this Playoff on the strength of a 12-1 straight-up record, though have also been a rewarding side against the spread (7-5), equating to a net profit of 1.36 units. This is a team that has cooled off since their torrid 6-2 start ATS, alternating covers and non-covers over the past six outings, with that Sun Belt Title Game triumph failing to hit the mark (-24.5). In his two years on the job, Chesney is now 21-5 SU and 14-10 ATS overall, including 7-5 ATS away from Harrisonburg, a perfect 2-0 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-0 ATS with the luxury of rest, 10-8 ATS following a win, and 7-1 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the Sun Belt. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their past seven non-conference affairs and are in the midst of a 4-1 run ATS away from Bridgeforth Stadium against an adversary with a winning home record. The Dukes are also 9-3 ATS immediately after a conference home game and 7-1 ATS following back-to-back victories and facing a foe with a win percentage north of .666, with both trends proving relevant tonight. On the flipside, they have failed to cover four consecutive contests after shipping less than 275 total yards in the previous game, are in the midst of a 1-5 malaise ATS after rushing for 200+ yards, and have habitually struggled to cover in the month of December (1-4 ATS over last 5 tilts). Looking at this particular matchup, this is the first-ever encounter between these programs, which is to be expected given that JMU has only been competing in the FBS since 2022. All-time, they are 2-6 SU against Power-4 programs (2-2 ATS), with their lone two victories coming against the likes of Virginia in 2023 (36-35) and North Carolina a year later (70-50), both which came on the road. This season, they traveled to Louisville for the second time in four years, giving the Cardinals everything they could handle in a 28-14 affair. James Madison led throughout the game until the hosts finally drew level midway through the third period, where the Redbirds ended the game on a 22-0 run. The two sides were separated by just a single yard of offense (264-263), though the Dukes ultimately fell victim to their own mistakes; Chesney’s charges committed a dozen penalties for a loss of 95 yards, while losing the turnover battle 2-1, as Barnett lost a fumble in his end zone that was recovered by their opponent for a touchdown in the final stanza. The junior amassed just 102 yards on 15-of-25 passing and was sacked SIX times, but did toss a short score to (Charlotte transfer) Lacota Dippre to open the game. With that being said, his own defense performed very well with three sacks and a forced fumble of their own, limiting Louisville to 113 rushing yards on 30 carries, though ultimately capitulated as the Cards ripped off a 78-yard touchdown run to put the tilt out of reach. On the injury front, (Senior Tailback) Jordan Fuller, who ranks third on the team with 415 rushing yards and five scores, returned to action after missing nearly a month with an undisclosed malady, thus listing him as questionable to participate tonight. Looking ahead, if James Madison happen to escape Eugene with a seismic upset, then they will be off to Lubbock to battle the (No. 4) Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Quarterfinals of the CFP.
Meanwhile, on the opposite side of what the oddsmakers are telling us is the most lopsided of the four first-round matchups in this Playoff, Oregon (11-1, 8-1 in BIG 10) is under a wealth of pressure to handle their business and advance to the Quarterfinals. After winning the BIG 10 Championship in their first year in the conference, the Ducks took a slight step backward this season, though there is really nowhere to go but down when you’re coming off a 13-1 campaign in which you were undefeated prior to the Playoff. This really speaks to the job that (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done, elevating a program to heights unseen since the Chip Kelly era in the Pacific Northwest. After spending four years at Georgia where he coordinated the defense for the 2021 National Champions, Lanning brought his recruiting prowess and connections to the southeast with him to Autzen Stadium, where he transformed the roster he inherited into a bigger, more athletic group capable of flourishing right away in a tougher league such as the BIG 10. The 39-year-old has had 25 players selected in the NFL Draft since 2022, including five first round picks, with a whopping SEVENTEEN selections coming over the past two years alone. Needless to say, replacing talent hasn’t been an issue whatsoever, though it will be interesting to see how he goes about filling the voids left on his coaching staff, as both coordinators have accepted head coaching jobs in the passing weeks. (OC) Will Stein will be taking over at Kentucky, while (DC) Tosh Lupoi will be doing the same at Cal, though both coaches will reportedly remain at their respective posts until Oregon has concluded their playoff run. Granted, this isn’t the first time that Lanning has had to replace coordinators, as (former OC) Kenny Dillingham guided Arizona State to a BIG XII Championship last season. Interestingly, he has employed a co-coordinator approach at both OC and DC, with Drew Mehringer and Chris Hampton assisting in those duties. However, enough about the coaches, how about the players that have driven the Ducks to fifth straight 10-win campaign? The offense hasn’t missed a beat with (Redshirt Sophomore Quarterback) Dante Moore taking over in the pocket, with the UCLA transfer and former 5-star recruit looking like a lock to be drafted in the top-5 picks if he chooses to declare. Moore (pictured below) has completed 72.5% of his throws for 2,773 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt, with 24 touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, exhibiting strong arm strength and accuracy, particularly when it comes to placement on deep balls. As a result, the attack as a whole has averaged 38.2 points (9th in FBS) on 465.2 total yards, parlaying to a healthy 7.1 yards per play. Defensively, Lanning’s troops remain formidable in allowing just 14.8 points (8th in FBS) on 251.6 total yards, creating plenty of havoc with 57 tackles for loss, 23 sacks, seventeen takeaways, and three defensive touchdowns. Oregon has held all but two foes to below 300 total yards this season, while the run defense has permitted just 107.3 yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry, which is significant given how much their opponent’s success hinges on rushing superiority. In the season finale at (bitter rival) Washington, a 26-14 victory in which the defense took charge with 283 total yards relinquished, the Ducks held the hosts to their fourth-lowest total yardage of the year. The visitors racked up six tackles for loss, four sacks, and a pair of interceptions, led by (Purdue transfer) Dillon Thieneman who had a sack and pick apiece. Offensively, Moore & Co posted 392 yards themselves, with the bulk of that production coming through the air as the QB completed 20-of-29 throws for 286 yards and a 64-yard touchdown to (Florida State transfer) Malik Benson, who led the way with 102 yards on five catches. Granted, Moore also rushed for a score too, though Lanning will be lamenting that his charges settled for a quartet of field goals courtesy of (Senior Kicker) Atticus Sappington.
From a betting perspective, Oregon come into this opening round of the Playoff at 11-1 straight-up, while also proving to be rewarding against the spread (7-4), parlaying to a net profit of 2.36 units. This is a team that has been in red-hot form of late, covering each of their last three outings, including that aforementioned victory in Seattle (-6.5). Since arriving in Eugene back in 2022, Lanning is now 47-7 SU and 30-18-1 ATS overall, including 16-8 ATS at Autzen Stadium, 29-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-5 ATS with the luxury of rest (0-2 this season), 27-15 ATS following a win, and 8-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the conference he calls home, be it the BIG 10 or the Pac-12 before it. Furthermore, his troops have been a strong play as sizable favorites, posting a 12-5 ledger ATS when favored by 20+ points, which is precisely the case tonight. The Ducks are also 5-1 ATS versus non-Power-4 schools under Lanning, besting the likes of Montana State (-29.5) and (bitter rival) Oregon State (-33.5) by a combined 80 points this season. As for their ledger in the Playoff, this is third time that these birds have gone dancing (1-2 SUATS), with both losses coming at the hands of (eventual National Champion) Ohio State. The first came in the advent of the CFP, as the top-seeded Ducks were obliterated by the Buckeyes in the 2014 National Title Game, a 42-20 affair in which the Pac-12 champs were eviscerated to the tune of 538 total yards, 296 of which came on the ground. Fast-forward a decade and history struck again, as undefeated Oregon was again embarrassed, this time in a 41-21 tilt at the Rose Bowl, where they fell behind 34-0 just before halftime of that quarterfinal. Ironically, this blowout came just a few months after beating Ohio State in Eugene, but you wouldn’t know it as Lanning’s defense shipped 500 total yards, including 319 through the air. Fortunately for everyone in the Pacific Northwest, Brutus & Co are residing on the opposite side of the playoff bracket, though there is plenty of competition stacked ahead of any potential rematch in the final. On the injury front, keep an eye on the Receiving Corps where Dakorian Moore (28 catches, 443 yards, 3 TD) and Gary Bryant Jr. (25 catches, 299 yards, 4 TD) are both listed as questionable with undisclosed maladies. Looking ahead, if Oregon takes care of business at home tonight, then they will be flying south to Lubbock, where Texas Tech awaits.