8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Ravens -3, Total: 48.5
A potential playoff preview concludes the fifteenth Sunday of the regular season, as the New England Patriots look to bounce back after suffering their first loss since September, while the Baltimore Ravens are desperate to keep pace in the race for the division crown, which is looking like their lone avenue to the postseason. After enjoying over two months of success thanks to a 10-game win streak vaulting them to the top of the conference, we are now going to see just how far these Patriots (11-3, 1st in AFC East) have come. In sports (and life), you can oftentimes ascertain the character and resolve of a team after they meet defeat, which is precisely where we find New England, who were blindsided by Buffalo in a 35-31 loss last weekend. We use the term blindsided because this one looked like it was going to be a route early on, as the hosts raced out to a commanding 21-0 lead before taking a 24-7 advantage into halftime. However, momentum pivoted away from the Pats in a major way, as the visitors began the second half scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions. Before they knew what hit them, (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel & Co found themselves trailing 28-24, though briefly retook the lead via (Rookie Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson’s 65-yard touchdown run, which was his second sprint to the end zone of 50+ yards. Unfortunately, they would capitulate on the ensuing drive, as the Bills responded with another touchdown to reestablish their edge. The two sides would trade punts, with the home side getting one final opportunity to strike back, though (Sophomore Quarterback) Drake Maye couldn’t get out of his own half of the field, turning it over on downs at his 22-yard-line. Despite outgaining their bitter rivals 385-349 in total yards and hanging a season-high 246 rushing yards on them to boot, the Patriots fumbled this one away thanks to some uncharacteristically poor play from a situational perspective. When New England scored, they scored quickly, which proved to be a detriment to a defense that seriously wore out as they game progressed; the Pats possessed the ball for just 24:39 of action, while their adversary moved the chains all afternoon converting 8-of-14 third downs and their lone attempt on a crucial fourth down, which came on fourth-and-three from just over midfield, eventually leading to the go-ahead touchdown early in the final stanza. In turn, the Patriots committed the lone turnover of the game, as Maye (pictured below) was intercepted on a throw deep into Buffalo territory, which again led to that aforementioned go-ahead drive. It was a rough day at the office for the young QB, who was 14-of-23 passing for just 155 yards, while rushing for 43 yards and two scores. Make no mistake, the 23-year-old has been a revelation in this, his second season as the starter, leading the NFL in completion percentage (70.9%) and adjusted yards per attempt (9.08), with 23 passing touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, while rushing for four more scores to boot. Vrabel (pictured alongside him) and (Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels have done a tremendous job of developing the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, with his growth coinciding with that of an offense that ranks seventh in points scored (27.3), sixth in total yards (378.0), sixth in passing yards (255.6), second in net yards per attempt (7.5), and sixth on third down (43.1%). While that loss to the Bills no doubt feels like a golden opportunity lost, the Patriots still have just about everything still in front of them as the schedule winds down. After all, they still hold a 1-game lead over Buffalo in the division, while trailing the Broncos by a single game for homefield in the AFC.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots may have saw their 10-game win streak come to an end last weekend, but they are still a stellar 11-3 straight-up and 9-5 against the spread, equating to a net profit of 3.18 units on that latter front. After covering six of their first eight outings, this is a team that has cooled off in that regard, going 3-3 ATS over the past six games, failing to cover their most recent showing in that division showdown with the Bills (+2.5). In his return to Foxborough, Vrabel is now 11-3 SU and 9-5 ATS overall, including 5-1 ATS away from Gillette Stadium, 3-2 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-0 ATS following a loss, and 6-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have been a resilient side with four consecutive covers immediately after suffering a SU defeat and are in the midst of a 6-1 stretch ATS on the road, which is the case tonight. New England has also covered seven straight matches after shipping 35+ points and facing an opponent coming off an ATS victory, but are also 2-9 ATS in the first of back-to-back road ventures. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is certainly no stranger to Sunday Night Football with a 27-23 ledger ATS, including 10-6 AST as a road underdog, while owning a 12-3 record ATS as dogs against a non-division adversary. Looking at this particular matchup, the Pats own a 9-3 edge int he all-time series between these clubs, though have split the past two meetings since a certain GOAT left the Northeast. Interestingly, the road team and underdog have covered seven of the past eleven encounters (7-3-1 ATS), which is notable given those roles often coincide, as they once again do so tonight. When they last crossed paths, the Patriots were bested in a 37-26 affair at home three years ago, which was very competitive for much of the day; the hosts went toe-to-toe with the Blackbirds, trading scores until a touchdown run by (former Tailback) Damien Harris gave them a 20-14 advantage shortly after halftime. However, the visitors would put their foot on the gas with seventeen unanswered points to lead 31-20 heading into the fourth quarter. A short scoring run from (veteran Tailback) Rhamondre Stevenson cut the deficit to five points, though the 2-point attempt failed, but couldn’t get out of their own way from that point onward, committing turnovers on each of their final three possessions. While there aren’t many players left from that particular affair, Stevenson did amass 101 yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches, while (former QB) Mac Jones completed 22-of-32 passes for 321 yards and THREE interceptions, all of which coming int he second half. Getting back to their current QB, this is Maye’s first encounter with the Ravens, though he has performed well in primetime, completing 72.8% of his throws for 214.5 yards on a healthy 7.99 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. As for his ledger ATS, the North Carolina product is now 15-10 ATS overall, including 8-3 ATS on the road, 9-8 ATS as a dog, 7-5 ATS following a loss, and 9-9 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road dog (6-2 ATS). On the injury front, there are many teams that are dealing with mounting ailments at this stage of the campaign, with Vrabel & Co being no different as a dozen players currently occupy Injured Reserve, including (Rookie Offensive Tackle) Will Campbell (knee) and (Veteran Defensive Tackle) Milton Williams (ankle). Furthermore, the defense could be seriously depleted tonight with a bevy of players listed as questionable, including (Cornerbacks) Carlton Davis (hip) and Marcus Jones (knee) alongside (Linebackers) Christian Eliss (illness), Harold Landry (knee), and Robert Spillane (ankle). Looking ahead, the Patriots will remain on the road next weekend for their annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands to battle the struggling Jets, before returning to Foxborough to host the Dolphins in the season finale.
Meanwhile, it has been a VERY different campaign for the Ravens (7-7, 2nd in AFC North), who despite coming into this campaign on the short list of favorites to participate in Super Bowl LX have instead found themselves fighting for a shot at the postseason. Every year, there seems to be about a few teams that are absolutely torpedoed by a rash of injuries, with Baltimore suffering immensely through an early gauntlet in which they faced FIVE division winners in six weeks, falling to 1-5 along the way marking the worst start in the near two decades that (Head Coach) John Harbaugh has stalked the sidelines. Name a prominent player on this roster and they in all likelihood missed time during this dreadful start, with the most notable being (2-time MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson, who would go on to miss three consecutive games after suffering a strained hamstring in a 37-20 defeat at the Chiefs. While Jackson (pictured below) would eventually return and lead the Blackbirds to four consecutive victories, it has been clear that the effects of that hamstring continue to plague him, which given his generational skillset, completely alters what this offense is capable of doing. After a campaign in which he accounted for a career-high 5,107 total yards and 45 touchdowns, the 28-year-old has completed 63.5% of his throws for 200.9 yards on 6.47 net yards per attempt, eighteen touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions and a QBR of 60.1, which are steep declines from a year ago. The biggest difference has been his mobility; Jackson is averaging career-lows in rushing yards per game (30.3) and attempts per game (5.5), while his plays on designed RPOs (Run-Pass Options) has fallen off too (39 plays for 367 total yards). Furthermore, he has been pressured (23.1%) more than he has at any point since his rookie campaign, with his current percentage 3.4 points higher than it was last season. Simply put, all of the creative stuff that (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken has incorporated during his time with the franchise goes out the door if the threat of his QB making plays with his feet isn’t there, which has been the case in 2025. Case in point: the Ravens in the top-6 in points scored and total offense over Monken’s first two years in Charm City, but this season have fallen to fourteenth overall in points (23.9) and twentieth in total yards (343.8). With Jackson’s hamstring to be managed moving forward, it will be up to Harbaugh & Co to find other ways to win games, which they managed to do in last weekend’s 24-0 shutout of the Bengals, avenging a disappointing upset at home on Thanksgiving night. After committing a season-high FIVE turnovers two weeks prior to this trip to Southern Ohio, Baltimore played a much cleaner game this time around, thus controlling the affair with ease. The visitors rushed for 189 yards on 24 carries, 100 of which coming courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Derrick Henry, while Jackson was 8-of-12 passing for 150 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception, in what was the coldest entry of this rivalry (10 degrees!!!). Harbaugh must have been happy with his defense, which smothered one of the most explosive attacks in the league, limiting the Bengals to 298 total yards and 3-of-15 on third down, with three sacks and a pair of interceptions. (Veteran Defenders) Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Van noy each logged an interception, while (Safety) Alohi Gilman, who arrived at the Trade Deadline from the Chargers, picked off a lateral and returned it eleven yards to the end zone midway through the final stanza. That victory allowed the birds to get back to .500 and remain level with the Steelers, whom they trail via the head-to-head tiebreaker following a narrow 27-22 loss from two weeks ago.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens come into this stretch run of the regular season at a middling 7-7 straight-up and a disappointing 5-9 ATS, resulting in one of the worst returns in the NFL at -4.45 units. For better or worse, this has been a campaign of streaks for a team that has a 3-game run over covers bookended by a 4-game losing streaks in that regard, with their latest run of futility coming to a merciful end in last weekend’s trip to Cincinnati (-3). Since arriving in Charm City back in 2008, Harbaugh is now 192-122 SU and 162-139-13 ATS overall, including 71-77 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium, 104-101 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 97-85 ATS following a win, and 107-86 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered TWELVE of their last fourteen outings against a non-division opponent immediately after facing a division foe, but have covered just one of their past seven home games, and are in the midst of a 1-5 malaise ATS versus AFC competition. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that 18-15 ATS on Sunday Night Football, including 9-6 ATS as a home favorite, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, the history between these teams isn’t expansive, particularly given that Baltimore has only been around since 1996, but there was a time in which this was very much a heated rivalry; these foes locked horns in the playoffs four times during a span of five years, with each side winning twice and tasting victory in the AFC Championship Game. However, their most recent affair, that aforementioned 37-26 meeting from 2022 saw them in two very different places. In a game in which the two combatants combined for 841 total yards, the difference proved to be turnovers, with the Blackbirds forcing a decisive four, including three on their opponent’s final three drives of the day. Trailing 20-14 midway through the third period, this one was flipped on its head as the visitors scored SEVENTEEN unanswered points, as Jackson tossed touchdown passes on back-to-back possessions, before eventually putting the game on ice with a 9-yard rushing score with just three minutes left in regulation. When it was all said and done, Jackson was 18-of-29 passing for 218 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for another 107 yards and that last score. (Veteran Tight End) Mark Andrews hauled in eight of thirteen targets for 89 yards and two of those touchdowns, while Humphrey was one of three defenders with an interception. Getting back to Jackson, he is 2-1 all-time versus New England, completing 68.6% of his throws for 210.0 yards on 7.09 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 74.3 yards and three more scores. In primetime, the Louisville product is a commanding 22-9 SU, with 260.6 total yards, 69 touchdowns in comparison to committing 21 turnovers. As for his ledger ATS, Jackson is now 58-50 ATS overall, including 23-31 ATS at home, 45-47 ATS as a favorite, 41-36 ATS following a win, and 42-33 ATS versus non-division adversaries, with by far and away his worst role coming as… you guessed it, a home favorite (21-31 ATS). On the injury front, Harbaugh has nine players on Injured Reserve, the most notable being (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Nnamdi Madubuike, who has missed all but two games with a neck malady. (Veteran Cornerback) Chidobe Awuzie (foot), (Veteran Left Tackle) Ronnie Stanley (knee), and the aforementioned Van Noy (quadricep) are all listed as questionable with various ailments, while Jackson has been dealing with an illness throughout the week. Looking ahead, the Ravens have quite a gauntlet remaining ahead of them as they face both the Packers and Steelers on the road, with there being a very high probability that that finale in Pittsburgh could decide the AFC North.