4:30 PM EST, Netflix – Spread: Lions -6.0, Total: 44.0
Week 17 kicks off this evening with some holiday football, as the desperate Detroit Lions try to find a way to prolong their fading playoff hopes against the Minnesota Vikings, who may have been relegated to the role of spoiler, but nonetheless are presented with an opportunity to sweep their division rival. After three years of ascension in the Motor City, the Lions (8-7, 3rd in NFC North) have finally come crashing back down to Earth in a campaign that many pundits saw coming from a mile away. This is a franchise that went 38-17 from 2022 to 2024, including 29-9 over the past two seasons, winning back-to-back division titles along the way and advancing to their first NFC Championship Game since 1991. However, as of this moment they are on the outside-looking-in of the playoff field; sitting at eighth in the NFC, Detroit needs to win out and receive a whole lot of help with either San Francisco or Green Bay losing each of their final two outings. So, what in the name of Barry Sanders has happened in Motown, you ask? Well, injuries have certainly been a factor, while the NFC North remains one of the most treacherous divisions in the NFL, but the primary narrative coming into the campaign was if (Head Coach) Dan Campbell could sustain this success without his two most trusted lieutenants, (Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who became the HCs of the Bears and Jets respectively. Of the two, Johnson’s departure is viewed as the most influential and has been dreaded for years; for three seasons, his offense was the proverbial belle of the ball, ranking in the top-5 in both points scored and total yards each year, while developing a plethora of talented playmakers and resurrecting the career of (former Number One Overall Pick) Jared Goff. Furthermore, they were as complete a unit as you could find in the NFL, for if you wanted to play smashmouth football, they would run it down your throat, but they could also spread you out and pick you apart in the passing game. How this talented unit would perform with somebody else pulling the strings was on the mind of many around the league, with the answer to that question proving to be a disappointment to the faithful in Detroit. Effectively, there was nowhere to go but down, folks, as (former Senior Offensive Assistant) John Morton initially took over playcalling duties before eventually giving way to Campbell (pictured below), who after a hot start has produced uneven results. On the season, the Lions rank second in points (30.1) and third in total offense (378.6), while under Campbell’s direction have logged 30.4 points on 410.4 total yards over the past seven games. However, they were held below 30 points in three of those outings, with their balance, which was such a hallmark under Johnson, has become inconsistent at best; churning out 121.4 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry is solid production, but it is also a bit misleading, for they were held below the century mark on three occasions during this stretch, including a season-low FIFTEEN yards in last weekend’s 29-24 defeat at home against the Steelers. With both teams desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, the hosts blew an early 10-3 advantage as Pittsburgh ran off NINETEEN unanswered points before a wild comeback bid came up short due in large part to a pair of Offensive Pass Interference penalties on Detroit. As we stated earlier, Campbell’s troops rushed for a mere fifteen yards on a dozen carries, as they eschewed the ground game in an attempt to get back into the affair. Goff was 34-of-54 passing for 364 yards and three touchdowns, but was subject to intense pressure throughout the evening, suffering three sacks, nine hits, and a key safety early in the third quarter that further fueled his opponent’s scoring run. However, the defense was just as big an issue as the absent run game, as (DC) Kelvin Sheppard’s unit had zero answers for a Steelers’ attack that had struggled to find a rhythm all year. The Lions shipped 481 total yards, including a whopping 230 yards versus the run, 8-of-16 on third down and 2-of-2 on fourth down. This tilt came down to big plays, with the visiting side authoring THREE touchdowns of 40+ yards, including a crippling 45-yard rushing score midway through the fourth period after Detroit cut the deficit to five points. This loss marked the first time since October of 2022 that the Lions had lost back-to-back contests, snapping a streak of 62 games without consecutive defeats, which tells you everything you need to know about how far this franchise has come.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 8-7 straight-up but have run their ledger against the spread in reverse (7-8), parlaying to a net loss of 1.64 units. This was likely a long time coming for a team that had been a betting darling under Campbell, posting the best record in the NFL between 2021 and 2024 (49-21-2 ATS), now managing to cover just three of their past ten games. During his time in the Motor City, Campbell is now 49-37-1 SU and 56-29-2 ATS overall, including 22-10 ATS away from Ford Field, 30-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 22-9 ATS when harboring revenge, 15-6 ATS following a loss, and 14-7 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover four straight games after conceding 250+ passing yards, while doing the same when surpassing that yardage total themselves, with both trends proving relevant this evening. Detroit is 10-3 ATS with divisional revenge, which is notable given that they were bested at home in a 27-24 upset against the Vikings in early November. This loss snapped a 5-game winning streak in this series, while also bringing an end to a run of NINE consecutive covers. After striking first with a touchdown on the opening drive, the hosts were outscored 24-7 over the ensuing 30:00 of action, before Goff hit (emerging Receiver) Jameson Williams for a 37-yard touchdown with just under two minutes left in regulation. However, the defense couldn’t get the ball back, conceding a 16-yard completion on a crucial third-and-five at the 1:45 mark, effectively ending the game. Again, this was one of those outings in which a lack of balance really hurt the Lions’ attack, as they managed just 65 rushing yards on 20 carries, leaving Goff to deal with a wealth of pressure. The veteran passer was sacked FIVE times, hit on eleven occasions, and suffered fifteen pressures, which equates to an untenable 35.7% of his drop-backs. Speaking of the Cal product, he is 7-4 all-time versus the Northmen, completing 69.7% of his throws for 288.0 yards on 7.59 net yards per attempt, with 20 touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. The 4-time Pro-Bowler is 8-6 in these midweek affairs, with 26 scores in comparison to just four picks. As for his ledger ATS, Goff is now 77-58 ATS overall, including 39-29 ATS on the road, 49-35 ATS as a favorite, 44-32 ATS with revenge, 34-22 ATS following a loss, 10-11 ATS after back-to-back defeats, and 28-19 ATS versus division foes, with by far and away his best role coming as… you guessed it, a road favorite (20-12 ATS). On the injury front, Campbell & Co have gone through it for a second successive campaign, with a dozen players on Injured Reserve, including (Defensive Backs) Terrion Arnold (shoulder), Kerby Joseph (knee), and Brian Branch (Achilles), along with (Pro-Bowl Tight End) Sam LaPorta (back). (Offensive Linemen) Taylor Decker (shoulder), Graham Glasgow (knee), and Chrisitan Mahogany (fibula) have all been limited throughout the short week of practice and are listed as questionable, while (Cornerbacks) Avonte Maddox (back) and Amik Robertson (hand), (Defensive Tackle) Alim McNeil (abdominal), and (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) are all in the same boat with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Lions will close out the regular season on the road with their annual pilgrimage to Soldier Field where they will face the division-leading Bears, which will be a must-win for Detroit, who will undoubtedly be in scoreboard-watching mode throughout the finale.
Meanwhile, the situation has been even more dire in Minneapolis, where the Vikings (7-8, 4th in NFC North) have already been eliminated from playoff contention, continuing a 16-year run without back-to-back postseason births. Indeed, Minnesota was one of the most surprising teams in the league last year, posting a 14-3 ledger on the strength of an aggressive, blitzing defense and the career renaissance of (journeyman Quarterback) Sam Darnold, who earned Most Improved Player of the Year honors after taking over for an injured J.J. McCarthy, whom the franchise traded up to select tenth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Given their investment in McCarthy, it wasn’t surprising that the organization opted to let Darnold walk in Free Agency, though in hindsight that decision has been the primary reason for their regression. During his coaching career, (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell has done tremendous work at QB, particularly with the Northmen, who have seen veterans such as Kirk Cousins and the aforementioned Darnold enjoy the finest years of their respective careers under his guidance. The train of thought that O’Connell (pictured below) would repeat that success with McCarthy was sound, which was evident throughout the team’s entire offseason approach. After all, the Vikings loaded up with veteran talent on both sides of the football so that they could maximize the window that having a young (affordable) QB provides. However, while that approach has paid championship-level dividends for other teams, it is entirely contingent on said QB growing exponentially, which simply has NOT been the case for McCarthy. It really has been a tough start to the career of the Michigan product, who after missing his entire rookie campaign with a knee injury, has been relegated to just nine games thus far, with two separate stints on the sideline, the first due to a high ankle sprain and the second courtesy of a concussion, stunting his growth on the gridiron. This kid NEEDS reps, though every time he has started to build some momentum, he has gotten hurt and taken steps backward. On the year, McCarthy has completed just 57.3% of his throws for 161.1 yards on 5.27 net yards per attempt, with more touchdowns (12) than interceptions (11) and a QBR of 33.9. Keep in mind that he has a wealth of weapons at the skill-positions, chief among them (2-time All-Pro Wideout) Justin Jefferson, who came into this season averaging a prolific 1,486.4 receiving yards per year, though has been left frustrated by his young teammate; Jefferson is on track for career-lows in a number of categories, including receptions per game (4.8), yards per game (61.1), total touchdowns (2), and catch percentage (57.6%). While McCarthy had finally shown signs of growth in back-to-back wins over the Commanders (31-0) and Cowboys (34-26), completing 66.0% of his throws for 206.5 yards on 8.53 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns in comparison to only one interception, misfortune struck yet again as he exited last weekend’s eventual 16-13 victory over the Giants with a small hairline fracture in his throwing hand. With (primary backup) Carson Wentz on Injured Reserve, (undrafted rookie) Max Brosmer came in to steady the ship, which he did as (veteran Kicker) Will Reichard’s 30-yard field goal to break the deadlock late in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winner. In a defensive slugfest in which the two combatants combined for just 381 total yards on a windy, frigid day in the Meadowlands, (Defensive Coordinator) Brian Flores’ unit proved to be decisive with a dominant performance, relegating New York to 141 total yards, including a scant 33 via the pass, 2-of-10 on third down, and 1-of-3 on fourth. Known for his exotic blitz packages, Flores was in his bag against (rookie QB) Jaxon Dart, who could muster a net of THIRTEEN passing yards after five sacks, six hits, and plenty of pressures. Five different players logged a sack, while (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Byron Murphy snatched his first interception of the season. While this has been a campaign littered with growing pains for Minnesota, this current 3-game win streak provides hope for 2026, with an opportunity to use these final two contests as a launching pad for future success.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Vikings, who are 7-8 straight-up and against the spread thus far, equating to a net loss of 1.64 units, which is an identical return to their opponent this evening. After covering just four of their first twelve outings, this a team that has finally found their rhythm on that latter front, covering three consecutive contests for the first time since early October of last season. Since arriving in Minneapolis in 2022, O’Connell is now 41-27 SU and 32-31-5 ATS overall, including 14-18 ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium, 14-13 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 16-15 ATS versus a foe harboring revenge, 19-17 ATS following a win, and 9-11 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops are accustomed to closing the schedule strong, as they are in the midst of a 7-0 run ATS in the month of December, while generally bouncing back well following a dismal offensive performance, posting a 21-6-2 ledger ATS immediately after being held below 250 total yards in the previous game. However, Minnesota has covered just one of their past seven meetings with adversaries who are above .500, which is precisely the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, the Northmen own a commanding 81-45-2 edge in the all-time series with the Lions, though had failed to cover NINE straight encounters overall, including four in a row at home, though as we touched upon earlier, they recently snapped the former of those streaks in that aforementioned 27-24 upset in Motown. Despite amassing just 258 total yards and converting 4-of-12 third downs, the visitors survived on the strength of their commitment to the run game (142 yards on 29 carries) and Flores’ defense getting after the QB with their trademark fury (5 sacks, 15 pressures). It was very much a mixed bag for McCarthy, who completed 14-of-25 passes for 143 yards with three total touchdowns, but also an interception and five sacks. However, if you’re looking for growth from the youngster, than there were certainly moments to be found in this one, folks. First, he started hot with passing scores on each of his first two drives, while scrambling for a third touchdown to extend the lead to ten points late in the third quarter. Then, after Detroit cut the deficit to three points inside of the two-minute warning, he completed a clutch 16-yard throw down the right sideline on a third-and-five to effectively end the game. Jefferson accounted for one of those receiving scores, bringing his career total versus the Lions to five. The LSU product has really feasted against his division rival, averaging a lofty 114.1 receiving yards and 7.1 catches per matchup. As for (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones, who has spent his entire career in the NFC North, having enjoyed plenty of success against them as well, averaging 85.7 yards from scrimmage with eight total touchdowns in thirteen affairs, including 98 yards from scrimmage in his latest win at Ford Field. On the injury front, O’Connell & Co haven’t had it as bad as their opponent this evening, but they haven’t been spared in that regard with eight players on IR, chief among them being (Left Tackle) Christian Darrisaw (knee) and (Edge) Jonathan Greenard (shoulder). (Veteran Tight End) T.J. Hockenson (shoulder), (Center) Ryan Kelly (concussion), and (Tailback) Jordan Mason (ankle) are all likely to miss today’s game with various maladies, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (thigh) and the aforementioned Jones (ankle) practiced sparsely throughout the abridged week of prep and are thus listed as questionable. Looking ahead, the Vikings will remain in Minneapolis for next weekend’s finale as they host the Packers, with a potential opportunity to not only end the campaign with a winning record, but perhaps spoil Green Bay’s bid for a playoff spot.